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Market Overview

Won’t Back Down

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I’d like to wish all of our clients and colleagues in China a very happy moon day festival. Hope that the night’s skies shine brightly on you and all your loved ones.

Would also like to wish a warm farewell to Tom Petty who passed away yesterday. Here’s to never backing down.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Due to local holidays, there will be no daily market update tomorrow and we will resume on Friday.

 

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of October 4th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Market Overview

Stock markets continue their bullish run with gains on Wall Street yesterday leading the Dow Jones and SPX500 further into their record highest levels.

Asian and European markets are also performing today as well as can be expected. Except for the Spanish index ESP35, which is close to 1% down in the first few moments of trading.

Here we can see the gap down from the bloody weekend (blue circle) and the plunge at the start of today (yellow).

It seems that at least locally, the matter of Catalonia’s independence is having an effect on market prices. Spanish Bonds are also under pressure with yields hitting the highest level in 3 months.

For the moment, the damage seems to be contained and other bonds in the EU are only slightly higher. However, all markets are connected. Should things in Spain deteriorate it could start affecting other European markets, which would in turn affect the rest of the world.

The King of Spain weighed in on the debate yesterday backing the Spanish government as he spoke about unity but the local government of Catalonia is not backing down and are expected to declare their independence shortly.

Double Trouble

Today we’ll be graced with speeches from the two biggest market moving people on the planet.

As we’ve discussed many times, it is the central banks who have been responsible for most market movements over the past decade due to monetary policy that has been largely experimental.

Both Mario Draghi of the European Central Bank and Janet Yellen of the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States will be speaking at rudimentary events. Neither are expected to say anything drastic but it does pay to pay attention.

Janet Yellen has the financial markets exactly where she wants them at the moment with traders assigning a 70% chance of a rate hike in December. Not too hot, not too cold. Over the next two months, she can take her time and make a decision whether or not to pull the trigger.

Draghi, on the other hand, is in a bit of a tight spot. Currently, the ECB has their printing presses running on full steam and is injecting about 60 Billion Euro into the economy every month. The markets have been responding and the effects of the stimulus seem to be going well. However, the more time they drag on the program the less positive effect it has. So lately they’ve been considering to wind down the stimulus or stop it completely.

The Euro strength over the past few months only adds to Draghi’s troubles as it hurts the export markets. The situation in Catalonia is actually playing in Draghi’s favor as it provides a good narrative for the Euro to cool off.

This way, Draghi can feel more comfortable talking about less stimulous without worrying about sending the Euro through the roof.

As always, please feel free to contact me directly with any comments or questions. Have a wonderful day ahead.

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.
The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Market Overview

Executive Blockchain Advisor

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Hi Everyone,

It’s been one year now since bitcoin achieved an outstanding all-time high of $20,155 per coin and today it seems we’re testing new lows of $3,122, a total drop of 84.5%.

The massive slide in value may seem unprecedented but in fact, retracements of this magnitude have happened no less than four times in Bitcoin’s short history. To get a better understanding of Bitcoin’s price cycles please see this article that I wrote for Global Banking & Finance Review.

Because cryptoassets are such a new concept, we are still finding ways to figure out what the value of them should be. All assets in every market go through price discovery, but due to the rapid growth of the crypto industry, this process of price discovery is currently on steroids.

What does confuse me about market cycles, in every market, is the way that sentiment shifts to such extremes that traders end up preferring to buy when prices are high and to sell when prices are low when in fact they should be doing the exact opposite.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

  • Bank Led Selling
  • Shut It Down
  • Bitcoin Advisor to the President

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of December 17th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Traditional Markets

Stocks fell further on Friday with things turning downright ugly by the end of the day. There didn’t seem to be any specific catalyst or news story driving the sell-off, just more of the same backdrop that we’ve been talking about for months already.

One thing that did stand out on Friday though was that the banking sector was sold off more relentlessly than the rest of the markets as depicted in this graph from Bloomberg.

Also, it’s clear by now that US Stock markets are generally under more pressure than their global counterparts so far this month.

It makes sense too. The US seem to be the ones leading the whole monetary tightening trend, followed closely by the European Union.

We already heard from the ECB last week, which announced that it will be halting its QE purchases starting next year. This Wednesday we’ll hear from the Fed, which is expected to raise interest rates by a quarter point.

Shut Er Down

The US Government has until the end of this week to agree on a budget, and it does seem like they have their work cut out for them. Donald Trump is trying his best to include provisions to build a wall on the Mexican border but the Democrats are opposing this firmly.

If they don’t come to an agreement, we could very well see another government shutdown. Meaning, that the US stops paying its debts until further notice. This has happened no less than 20 times since 1976 and usually doesn’t last for more than a few days, but nevertheless remains a scary concept.

The feeling at the moment is that there will be a last minute temporary patch that will kick the can into early next year but we’ll see how this plays out. As far as the markets are concerned these type of events only add to the uncertainty.

Blockchain Advisor

Blockchain advocates have been celebrating the latest appointment to the White House Cabinet. Mick Mulvaney is a well-known supporter of bitcoin and digital assets and his promotion to White House Chief of Staff is definitely a big win for the community.

Mulvaney has not only been on record as supportive of digital assets but has even championed two separate bills designed to hasten their adoption.

However, the celebration may be a bit overdone. President Trump literally became famous for his catchphrase “you’re fired” and it seems his cabinet is no exception to this. Here’s a website that tracks some of the high profile departures and as you can see there have been quite a few.

It seems Mulvaney is no exception either and has already started his term on shaky ground. The top news story circulating this morning is a video in which Mulvaney called Trump a “terrible human being” during the 2016 elections.

Of course, efforts are already being made to smooth things over and we wish Mick the best of luck in his endeavors to promote positive blockchain legislation from his new position.

In any case, looks like we’ve got a nice surge in the crypto markets in the last few minutes. Looking forward to seeing where this is headed.

Have an amazing week ahead!!!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

eToro is a multi-asset platform which offers both investing in stocks and cryptocurrencies, as well as trading CFD assets.

Please note that CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Cryptocurrencies can widely fluctuate in prices and are not appropriate for all investors. Trading cryptocurrencies is not supervised by any EU regulatory framework.

Best regards,
Mati Greenspan
Senior Market Analyst

Connect with me on….

eToro: @MatiGreenspan Twitter: @MatiGreenspan LinkedInMatiGreenspan |Facebook:MatiGreens

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 139 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




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Analysis

5 Things To Watch Next Week + ChartBook

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Last Fed Rate-Hike of the Cycle?

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision on Wednesday, and according to the consensus on Wall Street, the central bank will deliver the fourth rate hike of the year. The huge shift of the last couple of months in the US bond market means that now, no additional tightening steps are “priced in” for 2019.

The bearish shift in global stocks and the mounting evidence regarding a global economic slowdown confirm that view, but we still have doubts about the intentions of the Fed. While it’s true that yield curve is about to invert and the global slowdown will eventually affect the US economy, for now, the numbers remain solid, and the Central Bank might use these conditions to raise rates further in order to have “firepower” in the case of a recession.

That could fuel another strong leg higher in the USD, but in any case, the foundations of the Dollar’s rally are still strong, with the record deficits only affecting the currency’s long-term outlook in our view. Even if a stronger pullback is still possible, we expect new lows in the EUR/USD and new highs in the Dollar index in 2019.

China in Focus as Economic Slowdown Accelerates

Shanghai Composite Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

This week’s Chinese economic releases were quite scary for bulls, as both Industrial Production and Retail Sales missed by a mile, which is unusual in the history of the country. The Chinese stock market has been one of the first to enter a bear market during the broad bearish shift, and even though a trade deal with the US got closer, equities failed to rally substantially off their lows.

The Chinese Yuan is also very close to its lows, and should the slowdown further accelerate, the country’s financial system and the currency could get under heavy pressure given the extent of the credit bubble of the past years. With that in mind, the fate of the Chinese market is crucial for risk assets globally, and a break below the prior lows would be another nail in the coffin of the US bull market as well.

Another Big Week for the Pound

GBP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Brexit chaos pushed the Great British Pound to its lowest level since early 2017 against the USD, and from a technical perspective, we could be looking at a test of the 1.20 level in the near future. Looking at the possible outcomes of the Brexit saga, a new referendum, a no-deal Brexit, or a renegotiated deal, uncertainty is extremely high, and unless the May-government finds a quick solution, further steep losses are likely ahead for the currency.

Several key economic releases will also be coming out next week, such as the CPI and PPI indices on Wednesday, the final GDP and the Current Account balance on Friday, while Thursday’s Retail Sales report be out just before the Bank of England’s rate decision, so forex traders could be in for another very active week in the Pound-related pairs.

Financials Signaling Trouble Across the Globe

XLF, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The month’s most interesting market trend is the plunge in financial stocks, which continued unabated even as trade war fears subsided somewhat. The pressure on the major European banks has been apparent for a while now, and as the quantitative tightening is gaining speed, their US peers also got hammered in December. Some analysts point at the excesses of the leveraged loan market and the collapsing yield curve, but most likely the funding squeeze is at the root of the problem.

The XLF ETF firmly entered bear market territory and fell to its lowest level since mid-2017 this month, and although the broad rising trend remains intact in the sector, given the global technical picture, we would only look for short-term long positions. We continue to view all rallies as selling opportunities in equities, and the fact that more and more crucial sectors confirm the downturn is another bearish sign.

A Slew of Key Economic Releases on the Last Full Week of the Year

We will have a busy regarding the global economy even besides the Fed meeting and the British releases, with the US and Canada providing the most important indicators. The German IFO index, and US Building Permits and Housing Starts will highlight Tuesday’s session, the Canadian CPI will be out on Wednesday, followed by the Australian Employment Report and the BOJ’s rate decision on Thursday.

The Canadian GDP and Retail Sales will be released on Friday, and the US Durable Goods report will also be out, and following several months of disappointments, a positive surprise could cause a jump in the Dollar, especially we will have a hawkish surprise delivered by the Fed.

ChartBook

Major Stock Indices

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Nasdaq 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dow 30 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

VIX (US Volatility Index), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

DAX 30 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

FTSE 100 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EuroStoxx50 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Nikkei 225 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EEM (Emerging Markets ETF), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Forex

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EUR/GBP, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

AUD/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities

 

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Gold Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Copper Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 419 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Market Overview

Signs of Slowing China Rattle U.S. Stocks; Cryptos on the Verge of New Lows

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U.S. stocks sold off anew Friday after Chinese retail sales data pointed to a severe slowdown in the nation’s consumption-oriented growth, triggering fresh concern over the health of the global economy. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market approached $100 billion for the first time since August 2017, a level that would have seemed unfathomable just six months ago.

Learn more about the factors that influenced the market in our weekly review.

Hard Fall on Wall Street

The benchmark U.S. indexes fell hard in the final session of the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 496.87 points, or 2%, to close a 24,100.51. The Dow 30 is down a staggering 2,700 points from its October peak.

The much broader S&P 500 Index fell 1.9% to 2,599.95, the lowest in over eight months. All 11 primary sectors finished in the red, with health care and energy stocks leading the market lower. Health stocks plunged by an average 3.4%. Shares of energy companies were down 2.4%. Information technology and consumer staples also posted heavy losses.

A hard slide for information technology dragged the Nasdaq Composite Index sharply lower. In doing so, the tech-heavy index nearly joined its counterparts in negative territory for the year. The Nasdaq closed at 6,910.67, having lost 2.3%.

The CBOE Volatility Index, also known as the VIX, rose in the final session of the week, painting a grim picture for Wall Street over the next 30 days. VIX climbed 4.8% to close at 21.63 on a scale of 1-100 where 20 represents the historic mean. The so-called “fear index” has gained a whopping 87% this year.

Investors are exiting U.S. stocks in nearly record fashion, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. In a note obtained by Bloomberg, the bank said U.S. equity funds have experienced their second-biggest run in history, bleeding $27.6 billion through Dec. 12. As Bloomberg notes, the bloodbath on Wall Street has erased up to $4 trillion in U.S. stocks since the end of September, a period that was characterized by record highs.

China’s Cause for Alarm

Once again, China was at the center of the selloff on Friday after Beijing reported the biggest slowdown in retail sales in over 15 years. Receipts at Chinese retail stores rose just 8.1% annually in November, which was well below forecasts calling for 8.8%. Industrial production also languished, rising just 5.4% annually during the same month.

The world’s second-largest economy is in the midst of a multi-year cooldown marked by slowing industrial output and a gradual shift away from export-oriented industries. This is part of a much broader strategy to transform China into a consumer-oriented economy. However, heavy reliance on traditional smokestack industries remains a focal point to the nation’s short-term economic well-being.

China remains heavily dependent on exports, which means it relies on a strong U.S. economy as a destination market. This has given the Trump administration considerable leeway in pressuring Beijing to reform its trade policies. China and the U.S. have made considerable progress on trade talks in recent weeks but a comprehensive deal has yet to be reached.

Cryptos Locked in Bearish Retreat

Cryptocurrency prices on Friday touched new lows for the year, offering little doubt that a new bear-market bottom was around the corner. The combined value of all coins in circulation fell to $102 billion, the lowest in 16 months.

Bitcoin’s price briefly fell below $3,200 for the first time this year, extending its daily loss to more than 4%. The leading digital currency is down roughly 5% for the week, though its share of the overall market continues to grow amid a mass exodus from altcoins.

XRP, Ethereum and EOS each recorded declines of at least 3% on Friday; Stellar XLM was down 9%, falling below 10 cents for the first time this year.

With the exception of Tether, a dollar-backed stablecoin valued at $1.00, all cryptocurrencies in the top-20 were down at least 4% during the session. Twentieth ranked Maker (MKR) was the biggest laggard, falling 13% on the day.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 701 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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