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Will These Stocks Rally Again This Year?

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The US markets are on a roll as we head into the last quarter of the year. The S&P 500 continues to record new lifetime highs on a regular basis. While a section of the trading community has been skeptical of the rally, it has not deterred the bulls from buying on every dip. The correction still eludes the bears.

Key points

  1. The markets are at new lifetime highs.
  2. The fourth quarter is the strongest quarter for the stock market.
  3. Historically, five stocks of the Dow Jones industrial average have traded positive about 80% of the times in the fourth quarter.
  4. We analyze the charts of the five stocks to determine whether they offer a good risk to reward trading opportunity this year.

However, the current bull rally, which is already the second longest in history calls for caution but traders should continue to participate because no one can predict the exact top in the markets. It is only in hindsight that one comes to know about the top.

Therefore, in this article, we shall analyze the historical performance of the stock markets and a few stocks in the fourth quarter of the year, which have rewarded the investors handsomely.

Though it is not necessary that history will repeat itself, chances are that it may rhyme. These studies help the trader improve his odds for success.

The Dow Jones industrial average has risen for eight straight quarters, the longest winning streak since 1997. The S&P 500 has also rallied similarly, while the Nasdaq composite has risen for five straight quarters.

Though the September quarter is cyclically one of the weakest, this year, the Dow rallied 4.9%, the S&P 500 4%, and the Nasdaq composite 5.8% respectively. The stock market has entered its strongest quarter with a favorable tailwind.

The fourth quarter is the strongest for the markets

The fourth quarter is the best quarter for the stock markets by a huge margin. In the last 25 years, it has been positive 80% of the times. This is no small achievement. Also, the returns have been impressive.

Therefore, it is appropriate to expect the markets to close the year with strength. That is what most of the analysts also forecast.

Analysts expect 2017 to end on a strong note

In a recent poll by CNBC, majority of the analysts were confident that the S&P 500 will rise from the current levels and end the year with strength.

Along with the rise, they were extremely bullish on the pace of rise. About 79% believed that the rally will be more than 5%, which gives a year-end target of 2635 on the S&P 500. Considering the rally of the past few days, it certainly looks achievable.

But it is not only the US markets that are creating new records. The global stocks have also equaled the record for consecutive monthly gains – 11 straight months, last achieved in 2003, during the rebound from the dotcom bust.

Therefore, historical evidence suggests that we should see a strong fourth quarter, which will be good for stocks.

However, in the current bull run, the rally has not been broad-based. Only a handful of stocks have led the rally. Therefore, in order to profit, one has to pick the right stocks. Just buying any stock in the markets will not guarantee returns.

A study by CNBC  has identified five stocks in the Dow Jones industrial average, which have rallied in the fourth quarter majority of the times.

While these are positive numbers over a long period of time, still, before investing, it is always prudent to analyze whether the performance can be repeated this year.

Let’s look at the chart patterns to find out whether the stocks offer a good risk to reward trade opportunity or not.

UNH

The stock is currently trading within an ascending channel. It has traded in the upper half of the channel for most of the times, however, in September, it fell to the lower end of the channel. Since then, the stock has again rallied back to the highs. We can expect the stock to continue trending higher until it breaks down of the channel. Therefore, we have a clear stop loss at around $190.

Also, considering the stock’s performance of the past few months, we can expect a rally to the upper end of the channel, which should be around $207. However, for that, the stock will have to first rally above the highs of $200.76. If we buy at the current levels, our immediate profit objective is around $10, whereas, the possibility of a loss is $8, which leaves us with a risk to reward ratio of 1:1. Traders can take 50% position at the current levels and add the remaining 50% once the stock breaks out of $201. The initial stop loss should be kept at $190, which should be trailed higher once the stock moves up.

HD

The stock has broken out of an inverse head and shoulders pattern, which has a pattern target of $176. However, most breakouts retest their neckline, which in this case would be the $162.5 levels. Therefore, traders can buy 50% of the position at the current levels and 50% on a retrace to $162.5.

The stop loss should be kept at $159 levels, just below the neckline because the pattern weakens when the stock starts to trade below $162. This gives us a risk to reward ratio of roughly 1:2.

CSCO

Weekly chart

The stock has formed a large base after falling from the peak made during the dotcom bubble. A breakout of the overhead resistance zone of $33 to $35 can be very bullish for the stock, as it has no major resistances ahead. Therefore, we can assume that the stock will gain momentum once it sustains above $35.

Daily chart

On the daily chart, we find that the stock has a stiff resistance at $34.5, where the stock is likely to stall its current rally. However, if the stock breaks out of the resistance, it will be very positive for it. Therefore, traders should wait for a close above $34.5 and enter at $35. The stop loss for the trade can be kept at about $32.5 levels. The rally can easily extend to $39 and higher, which gives it a risk to reward ratio of about 1:2.

DIS

DIS is range bound between $90 and $120. Currently, it is trending down, as price is quoting below the downtrend line and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Any rally from the present levels is likely to face a slew of resistances between $101 to $106, from the 50-day SMA and the downtrend line. Therefore, we don’t find a buy setup here that can be traded.

TRV

The stock has been in a well-established uptrend, trading inside the ascending channel since 2010. However, at the current levels, the stock is right in the middle of the channel. Its support is at $110, whereas, it has resistance at $130 and thereafter at $140. The stock has not reached the upper end of the channel since November 2015. Therefore, the chances of a rally to the upper end of the channel in the fourth quarter look dim. At the present levels, we don’t find a good trade setup, which offers an attractive risk to reward ratio.

Conclusion

After analyzing the charts of the five stocks, we find buy setups only on three stocks. We don’t find any reliable buy setups on the other two.

Though the fourth quarter is the strongest, October gives jitters to the history students of the stock markets because two major crashes started in this month. First was the crash on 29 October 1929, commonly known as ‘Black Tuesday’ and the second was the crash on 19 October 1987, also known as ‘Black Monday’.

Though we don’t expect a similar crash this year, there is no running away from the fact that the markets are trading above their average price to earnings ratio. Additionally, the geopolitical tensions and the news on the tax reforms will keep the markets on the edge. Therefore, traders should be cautious and reduce their position size. Participate in the markets but with a lower allocation and keep a generous amount of cash in the portfolio.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 9 rated postsRakesh Upadhyay is a Technical Analyst and Portfolio Consultant for The Summit Group. He has more than a decade of experience as a private trader. His philosophy is to use technical analysis for momentum trading and fundamental analysis for long-term positions. Rakesh likes to keep himself fit by lifting weights and considers himself to be a spiritual person.




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The Air Transportation Market is Growing. Where to Invest?

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By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboMarkets

Today, practically every person who has internet access knows what Amazon and Alibaba are. These are the world’s largest internet-companies who, for the sale of their products, also use famous platforms like AliExpress and eBay.

Their total revenue constantly has been increasing year after year.

And as long as these companies are oriented toward international markets, 95% of the goods they sell are delivered by air.

Here we could pay attention to the aircraft manufacturers, as the air transportation growth rate will lead to increased demand for new aircraft. Boeing has conducted research according to which the demand for pilots, aircraft technicians and flight attendants in the world is growing, and the biggest activity is expected in the Asia-Pacific Region and in North America.

This week, the news feeds have been peppered with headlines on the current shortage of pilots in airline companies, and this demand will be hard to satisfy in the nearest 10 years.

Last week, Ryanair pilots went on strike demanding a salary raise and improved improved working conditions.

Consequently, investors have started showing interest in airline companies. Also, rumor has it that Warren Buffett is going to invest in one such company (or in several), but it has not yet been indicated which one exactly. According to some reports, it may be Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV).

Southwest Airlines Co. is an American low-cost airline founded in 1971. It is the biggest low-cost carrier in the United States and in the world by the number of transported passengers. As of December 2017, there were 706 Boeing 737 aircraft in the company. By its financial performance, the company looks attractive for long-term investments. For example, profitability has reached 16.90%. The Short Float ratio is very low – only 1.82% and the debt to equity ratio is 0.48.

Based only on the rumors, Southwest Airlines stocks have left the consolidation range between the levels of $50.00 and $53.50, having broken out the 200-day moving average and indicating a possible formation of an ascending trend on D1. The closest resistance levels are at $62 and $67.

On W1, a stable uptrend is visible and the broken out levels are becoming a support for underlying price.

It is unclear precisely which company Warren Buffett will direct his attention to, so we can analyze the financial standing of other airline companies, which can become potentially interesting investments.

Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) is one of the largest airlines in the world. Its destinations network includes countries in Asia, Europe, North, South America and the Caribbean region. As of January 2018, Delta Air Lines had 853 aircraft.

The financial performance of this company over the last 4 years shows a drop in income.

Profitability is 7.7%, the debt to equity ratio is 0.67 and the Short Float ratio is 2.65%.

According to technical analysis, the price is trading near the 200-day moving average, constantly breaking it out in both ways. Since December 2017 the resistance has formed on the chart, as the stock still won’t break out. In this situation, the breakout of $57.00 can be a signal for the further growth of the price of the stocks, but, at the same time, it has to be confirmed by good Q3 results.

On W1, there is still an uptrend, but we can already see a more serious resistance area from 2015 in the range between $53 and 56. The price is now in this range. The stock already tried to break out of this resistance in January 2018, but is has never managed to secure its position above this resistance. Here there is a high chance of the price falling to the support at $40. Currently, the potential drop of the price of the stock prevails over the growth.

The next airline company which we can direct our attention to is American Airlines, Inc. It is also one of the largest airline carriers in the world with headquarters in Fort Worth (Texas). The aircraft fleet of the company amounts to 958 aircraft in total.

Unfortunately, recently the financial performance of this airline has not been perfect either.

The debt to equity ratio (25.16) clearly demonstrates how risky this asset may be. That means that the company has 25 times more debts than the means to clear these debts. In this situation, the slightest decline of aviation operations may seriously hurt the company.

It should be noted that American Airlines has the “youngest” aircraft fleet now, as the company has invested its money exactly in the aircraft, which has caused such debts. Therefore, the company decided to risk, bu investors have not appreciated it, and thus the price of the stocks in 2018 was constantly falling.

Currently, the stock is in a downtrend. The price is gradually dropping within the descending channel, breaking out the support levels. However, near the level of $36 there has appeared a surge in rise, which indicates a possible forming of a strong support.

This can be due to rumors about Buffett’s interest towards the airline companies: his fund has now about $100 billion of available cash and a part of it will get to the market. Overall, the stocks of American Airlines seem to be a very risky investment.

There is another large airline company, which may be interesting from the point of view of investments: United Continental Holdings.

United Continental Holdings (NYSE: UAL) is the fourth largest airline company in the United States. It appeared out of the merger of United Airlines and Continental Airlines in 2010. As of June 2018, the aircraft fleet of United Continental Holdings amounts to 716 aircraft. Also, as in the two previously described airline companies, the most successful financial year was 2015. According to those results, profits reached $7.34 billion.

The Short Float ratio is 5.20%; the debt of the airline is 1.62 times bigger than its internal funds.

On D1, the technical analysis indicates an uptrend, as the price is now above the 200-day moving average and has secured its position above $80. In this situation, the further growth of the price cannot be excluded.

On W1, the stock also shows a stable uptrend trend and is currently trading near its historical maximums.

Thus, the technical analysis indicates a good growth potential for this stock, but the possibility of the correction of the price to $75 cannot be excluded either.

Having summarized the data on the revenue, we can see the big picture in the airline transportation market for 4 airlines.

American Airlines has lost the most income, while Southwest Airlines has been constantly increasing its profit.

The rest of the data indicates that the riskiest assets is American Airlines – its debt is the biggest out of all the 4 companies, its profitability is low and its Short Float is high.

To sum up, for the nearest years Southwest Airlines looks the most attractive investment-wise.

Amid all these data, Southwest Airlines noticeably stands out – all the rest have not been able to restore the previous revenue level after 2015. The fact of the matter is that Southwest Airlines has concentrated on low-cost transportation and this decision turned out to be the right one. If Buffett’s fund does buy Southwest stocks, this may become a very good investment for the coming years. Nevertheless, even without it, the expected growth of the passenger throughput will only be increasing the profit of this company and, consequently, the price of its stocks.

You should not consider this article as a guideline to follow in any way – this is only information for analysis.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboMarkets bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 6 rated postsHaving majored in both Social Psychology and Economics, I went on to continue my education in post graduate. Later I worked as a team lead of a tech and fundamental analysis lab in the Applied System Analysis Research Institute. This helped me to acquire all necessary skills and experience to become a successful trader and analyst, as well as a portfolio manager in an investment company. I'm a pro in the financial field and the author of articles for various international media. I also hold the position of Chief Analyst at RoboMarkets.




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Stock Pick: Twitter Incorporated

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Twitter Incorporated operates a popular social media platform that enables users to post and engage with messages known as tweets. In addition, the social media channel offers promoted products and services which include promoted trends, promoted accounts, and promoted tweets. These features allow advertisers to endorse their products and services. The company has 3,372 employees with 2017 revenues amounting to $2.44 billion.

Technical Analysis of Twitter Incorporated (TWTR)

TWTR moved as high as 74.73 in December 2013. Unfortunately for buyers at that level, the stock went into a freefall after it hit that price level. The downtrend began in March 2014 when TWTR breached support of 50. Bulls mounted multiple attacks to take out the resistance, but each attempt was denied. With bears in full control of the market, the stock dropped to as low as 13.91 in February 2016.

At that price level, TWTR formed a solid base. The base building continued until October 2017 when the stock surged in price and volume. The price action was a signal that the stock was ready for a bull run.

Technical analysis show TWTR broke out of a rounding bottom reversal pattern on the daily and weekly charts. The breakout looks valid as it was pushed by heavy volume. On top of that, the stock climbed as high as 47.79 in June 2018.

Recently, TWTR has been correcting. Nevertheless, this may be an opportunity to buy the dip.

Fundamental Analysis of Twitter Incorporated (TWTR)

On top of the technical analysis, fundamentals offer some support to our bullish outlook. TWTR’s trailing twelve months (TTM) price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) is 62.63. The stock appears overvalued. However, it has a three-year maximum of 333.4. This tells us that investors are willing to pay a premium for TWTR shares.

In addition, Variety reports that Twitter’s quarterly results beat expert estimates. Analysts predicted that the company would generate revenues of $605 million and a profit of 12 cents per share. However, Twitter posted revenues of $665 million and an earnings per share of 16 cents.

The strategy is to buy on dips as close to 30 as possible. If bulls can stay above this level, then we might see TWTR climb to 39.80. This point is crucial because by then, the stock would have created an inverse head and shoulders pattern. We’ll revisit TWTR once the target is hit for the possibility of a breakout.

The timeline for the initial target is less than three months.

Daily TWTR Chart

Weekly TWTR Chart

As of this writing, the Twitter Incorporated stock (TWTR) is trading at 32.98.

Summary of Strategy

Buy: As close to 30 as possible.

Target: 39.80

Stop: Close below 28.40.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.6 stars on average, based on 223 rated postsKiril is a financial professional with 4+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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Tesla: Even Record Losses Cannot Stop the Stock’s Growth

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By: Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboMarkets.

About two weeks ago, we published an article on Tesla and its future prospects, but today we will talk about this company once again.

On August 1, Tesla reported on second-quarter financials. The results are sad – the losses of the company are topping record levels.

The second-quarter losses reached $718 million USD, and compared to Q2 2017 they have gone up more than two times. If we look closer at the dynamics of what is currently happening, we will see that the growth of the losses is gradually slowing down and, at the same time, the overall income of the company is growing.

From this perspective, the future looks quite bright – if it goes on like that, the company will very soon be able to become profitable. As a result, amid the growing losses, the price of Tesla’s stock has increased by more than 20%. Here, the situation is exactly the opposite with regard to that of Facebook, whose share price has fallen by 20% despite massive profit growth. Tesla investors have paid attention not to the growing losses, but to the promises of Elon Musk to reach profitability in the next two quarters of the year.

Share prices have been pushed higher by another growth accelerator as well, which may later lead to an even bigger increase in price.

The short float ratio for Tesla shares is 27.38% and it demonstrates that every third investor is going short. Such an impressive growth has naturally provoked the closing of short positions. According to some reports, the losses of the bears on Tesla shares reached $2 billion USD last week, and many have not completed their transactions yet hoping for the price to pull back in order to reduce the present losses. But if the decline does not follow, they will again become “clean buyers”, pushing the stock price further up.

Tesla presents a unique case for Wall Street; if we analyze its financial indicators, we will see that one absolutely should not invest in a company with such a high short float ratio.

Let us compare Tesla with Ford – one of the leading car manufacturers in the world. The capitalization of Tesla is already 1.5 times bigger than that of Ford.

The ratio of debt of capital for Tesla is 2.42, meanwhile the same ratio for Ford is even worse – 4.19. This being said, the profitability of Ford is 4.30% and that of Tesla is in the minus and amounts to -18.80%.

Despite positive quarterly results, Ford shares cannot form an ascending trend and are trading at $10 USD. The decline had been forecast even before the reports on Ford shares were published in the article in June.

At the same time, amid the growing losses, Tesla stocks are in an uptrend.

There are 23 times more outstanding shares of Ford than those of Tesla. If, in this situation, we divide the price of Tesla shares by 23, the result will be that one share costs about $15 USD. In other words, even in the case of such comparison we see that the shares of the company are overpriced, and if we add up the debts and profitability, it will become clear why Tesla’s short float ratio is so high.

However, there is one more detail that the company had concealed when the report was published. In the second quarter Tesla has moved over to a new income report standard of ASC 606 which has provokedartificial revenue growth. When the growth of the revenue was being compared to the same in the Q2 2017, the values have not been adjusted according to the new rules and it has not been indicated that the calculation has been made according to the old standard. Thus, the company has misled investors by this data and it does not seem possible to calculate the real growth of the revenue in the second quarter, as Tesla has not published any detailed information on the adjustments which had influenced this report.

If we look at the diagram at the beginning of this article, we notice the positive dynamics of  revenue. But if we look closer, we will see that the situation is completely different – the revenue values have in fact been inflated, while it is impossible to calculate the real values at the moment. It turns out that only the third-quarter report will reveal the real dynamics of Tesla’s revenue. As of yet, only the fact of the growing losses has been confirmed. On the basis of this information, at the moment of the publication of the statistics not everyone understood what these numbers reflect. This is why the demand for Tesla shares has grown so sharply.

In light of this, it would be logical if investors reconsider the situation and begin unloading Tesla shares. But, historically, shares of Tesla have long ago stopped being governed by logic, which is why the sellers can once again experience losses. Along with them, there will be more ill-wishers which are predicting an imminent collapse of Tesla and are trying to persuade everyone to sell their Tesla shares. Possibly, their predictions will become reality one day – the only question is if they will be able to cover the losses, which they have experienced from such a long wait.

If Tesla shares are not governed by logic, then what is the growth accelerator? The answer is banal – rumors and expectations. Elon Musk has promised that the company will become profitable during the next two quarters of the year (although he always promises something). Tesla is now setting all its expectations at Model 3 and the huge demand for it.

We cannot ignore the talent of Elon Musk either. He is not only a great inventor but also a good seller. Perhaps, it is only his persuasiveness that makes investors believe that the future is bright for Tesla and stimulates them to further invest. Currently, the company produces 5,000 electric cars a week and is planning to be producing 6,000 by the end of August.

The technical analysis still indicates that there is an uptrend and that the probability of the further growth of the price of the shares is high. The price is above the 200-day moving average and it has bounced off the support level of 300 USD. The closest resistance is at 400 USD.

Disclaimer!

Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboMarkets shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 6 rated postsHaving majored in both Social Psychology and Economics, I went on to continue my education in post graduate. Later I worked as a team lead of a tech and fundamental analysis lab in the Applied System Analysis Research Institute. This helped me to acquire all necessary skills and experience to become a successful trader and analyst, as well as a portfolio manager in an investment company. I'm a pro in the financial field and the author of articles for various international media. I also hold the position of Chief Analyst at RoboMarkets.




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