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Will a Bitcoin Hard Fork Create Two Coins? – Bitcoin Unlimited Explained

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The past two weeks have been some of the most intense in bitcoin’s history as Bitcoin Core and Bitcoin Unlimited went head to head in what appears to be the last metaphorical battle.

Bugs in Bitcoin Unlimited were irresponsibly revealed and exploited. It was then found the bug was partly due to Bitcoin Core’s use of asserts in production, an unusual practice. Some exchanges then made a fork statement which apparently bound them to Bitcoin Core. It quickly backfired as the market sent the price down by $300 due to what some saw as a statement which places the entire currency into question.

Other exchanges quickly came out to say they will follow the longest chain, but another bug was exploited which again triggered asserts, sending nodes down, to only quickly recover.

During this period, Bitcoin Unlimited (BU) has retained around 40% hashrate share with bitcoiners now waiting for the decision of F2Pool, one of the bigger miners with some 11% network share. There are indications they may be switching, at which point Bitcoin Unlimited would have more than 50%. Once that is reached, we may see a psychological shift in attitudes as a fork moves towards becoming inevitable.

Technically, once more than 50% is reached, BU can fork at that point, but they most probably won’t because miners want to assure there will be no chain split. As such, they are likely to wait for 80% or maybe even 90% of the hashrate before they fork.

BW and Bixin (formerly known as HaoBTC) would give the network around 60%, perhaps 65%. Bitfury may be slightly swaying. If BU reaches 65%, they too may switch, giving the network 75%-80%.

Once 75%-80% is reached, miners will probably want to wait another month or two to give others a chance to upgrade. At that point, it is likely most, if not all, miners will switch, thus they’ll probably wait to reach 95%-100% network share. Once they do, they can then create a 2MB block.

Would There Be a Chain Split?

Once a 2MB block is created, the network can, technically, split into two chains. One chain can continue operating under Bitcoin Core (BC) nodes, while the main chain operates under Bitcoin Unlimited nodes.

Practically, this is very unlikely for many reasons. Firstly, if BU nears 70%, Bitfury, which has only 10% network share, would most probably switch. It is highly likely other miners would too. The Bitcoin Core chain would have an insignificant amount of hashpower which means their transactions would take days to confirm with ordinary transaction times not returning for months.

To make a chain split practical, BC may change proof of work. This, in effect, prevents current hashrate from mining BC coins, but only in theory. Bitcoin miners tend to provide hashrate to other coins too, thus have plenty of GPUs which would allow them to mine BC coins if they wished.

Matters may get far more complicated. Firstly, we have to consider whether the threat to change proof of work (PoW) is a bluff. That is because undertaking such action automatically places the Bitcoin Core coin (BCC) at a disadvantage. The coin is simply not secure, nor, many would argue, is it conceptually bitcoin because the change of proof of work where miners do not objectively act maliciously fully undermines the entire purpose of proof of work.

By changing proof of work, BCC would be conceding and would become a minority coin. They would further lose Bitfury and BTCC, isolating them considerably. Furthermore, they would probably lose support among at least some of their base who may see a PoW fork as going too far.

As such, it makes more logical sense to see a PoW fork threat as a bluff, but BC has two considerable advantages. Firstly, bitcoin.org, bitcointalk and r/bitcoin strongly support BC. If there is a split, these three media outlets would probably call BCC as bitcoin, regardless of its hashrate or price.

This would only serve to cause confusion. Moreover, if the market values BCC considerably lower, say $50, due to its low security as well as high fees plus transaction delays, while the Bitcoin Unlimited coin is valued at $800-$900, it would be a significant humiliation to Bitcoin Core which may find itself with a barely used chain.

Once a fork seems inevitable, they may therefore choose to bite their time instead of betting it all on red. A further consideration for Bitcoin Core is a miner’s statement that they will make an inoperational minority chain. The reason is probably to avoid confusion.

A more effective advantage Bitcoin Core may have is the potential to find bugs in Bitcoin Unlimited. This may serve to change attitudes towards the client and, if successful, may avoid a chain split, so retaining Bitcoin Core and its 1MB.

However, Bitcoin Unlimited has been attracting many developers and will probably tighten up its review procedures, therefore it is not clear whether BC can exploit any other bug besides the asserts it has already exploited.

A chain split, therefore, appears unlikely. It is more probable some Bitcoin Core developers may move to litecoin or another altcoin which may integrate segregated witnesses (segwit), but nothing can be said with confidence as a decision in such a decentralized way has never been made before.

What Happens if There is a Chain Split?

If a chain-split does occur, there would be two networks with their own chains, nodes, miners, and coins, no different than an altcoin, but with one significant differentiator. A bitcoin chain split would give the same amount of bitcoins to current holders on both chains.

Currently, just over 16 million bitcoins have been mined. In the event of a chain split, there would be 16 million BCC and 16 million BTU. Once both coins are listed on exchanges, there would probably be a great trading frenzy as speculators and ideologically motivated holders place their bets.

During this period, volatility is expected to be greater than ever. Whoever is not a professional trader will probably want to stay out and wait for the waters to calm. Common wisdom says diversification is very useful and highly advised for investors. Eth would probably be a good hedge.

After about one or two weeks, perhaps a month, either BCC or BTU will probably be judged by the market as having greater value. Whichever coin so does would probably be called bitcoin. The fixed amount of 21 million bitcoins, therefore, would probably remain as it is highly likely only one coin will have significant value.

As this event in such a decentralized way has not happened before, the above is necessarily speculative. It may well be the case that both coins are valued near the same, but that appears unlikely.

Non-scientific, but perhaps indicative, polls consistently tend to give bigger blocks around 80% approval over the past two years. As such, the coin value, after the trading frenzy, would probably initially settle on an 80/20 split, with the 20% coin gradually losing share.

The Ethereum Example

Ethereum is the only significant example of what may occur if both coins are listed. The combined value of both coins was initially greater than before the split as the trading opportunity attracted value from other coins. After one week of trading frenzy, eth settled at around 80% of the value with ETC settling at around 20%.

ETC then gradually began to lose share, first to 10% and now to a very insignificant amount, but there are considerable differences between eth and btc. Ethereum developers unanimously stood behind eth, even those who disagreed with the fork decision. All eth projects stood with eth, none moving to ETC.

In Bitcoin, developers are split with some, like Gavin Andresen and Jeff Garzik, supporting bigger blocks and BU, while others support BC. Most businesses tend to like bigger blocks, but they have not made any statement regarding BU. Some businesses will probably support BC.

Moreover, ethereum’s communication channels stood in a united front behind eth. In bitcoin, they are currently split and if there are two coins they would probably remain so split. The eth example, therefore, does not easily apply, but it does show that a split can be beneficial in the longer term despite potential confusion as eth has increased to around $50 after reaching a bottom of $5.

What Are the Chances of a Fork?

This is a difficult question to answer because it is necessarily speculative. Currently, I would say the chances remain slim for one main reason. A new pool has suddenly gained considerable share of the network, rising to 8% in just one week.

Little is known about 1Hash, including where their hash came from in such a quick time, but they are like F2Pool. That is, they have no hashrate of their own, simply facilitating the combination of hashrate owned by other small miners.

It is not yet fully confirmed, but there are indications they may be against BU. In a very short interview with Hacked, 1Hash’s owner said “we support the dilatation, but do not support the split.”

I asked if the pool will signal for segwit or BU, but received no further response. If they are indeed against Bitcoin Unlimited, then the client’s hashrate might stall around 60-65% with a fork appearing unlikely before winter or maybe next year.

Capacity, however, is currently a very big problem as fees have been increasing. With segwit seemingly rejected, some of the miners that currently signal segwit might switch. With BU having 60-65%, it would be far too tempting for them not to. As such, there may be a fork as soon as this summer.

It is highly unlikely a fork would occur during this spring, if one happens at all. I’d give it a 30% chance for summer and 50% chance for autumn/winter. That is based on current information, matters do move fast in this space and the behavior of eth would be of particular relevance.

The currency has plans for unlimited scalability, therefore it has attracted the attention of many big block supporters. Its market cap is now around 1/3 of bitcoin’s, with its transaction volumes nearing half of bitcoin’s.

If eth continues to advance, there would be immense pressure on miners to fork so as to increase capacity because they would see value leaving the network. Many have already left and not returned. They used to be strong cheerleaders of bitcoin, now they cheerlead Ethereum.

In my personal view, a fork by summer might halt what is now more than a drip drip, but autumn or winter might be too late depending on how things develop in eth land.

Images from Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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MGO Token Is Now the Preferred Currency for Game Publishers

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The last few years in the crypto markets have been like riding a roller coaster.  There was period of pure euphoria, mainly during 2017.  And, now, we are stuck, perpetually it seems, in a period of doom and gloom.  It’s unclear when things will turn around.  Because of the bear market that appears to have no end in sight, many cryptocurrency projects will likely fail during the next few years.  Bearing that in mind, it would behoove traders/investors to start researching projects that have a high probability of real world adoption.  One project that appears to be making all the right moves is MobileGo (MGO).

Increased Adoption of MGO Token

There is no doubt that gaming has been a global phenomenon for years.  Video games, computer games, multi-gaming experiences, and e-sports have all been woven into the fabric of society.  And while typical financial analysis focuses on the growth of the industry, game developers are the ones who make everything possible.

One of the largest platforms that game developers now belong to is Xsolla.

Xsolla offers significant advantages that include the following:

  • A pay station that accepts more than 700 payment types from more than 200 countries.
  • Industry leading fraud protection.
  • A partner network that assists publishers with growing their respective businesses.
  • An extremely popular store where gamers can purchase in-game goods, subscriptions, and currencies.

The last point is probably the most important as it relates to this article.  When gamers make purchases, such as in-game purchases, the developers are rewarded with earnings.  And, in order to run their businesses successfully, they are able to withdraw those earnings.

Until recently, the only option was a traditional FIAT withdrawal, such as USD or EUR.  But that is all changing thanks to MobileGo’s native currency, MGO.

Why are Developers Selecting MGO for Withdrawals?

During the last few weeks, game developers and publishers that utilize the Xsolla platform have begun selecting MGO as their preferred withdrawal method.  The current expectation is that MGO will account for roughly 30% of Xsolla’s monthly volume in the near future.  With Xsolla’s monthly turnover nearing $100 million, this would be a massive development.  This begs the question of why the sudden rise in MGO’s popularity.

Cryptocurrency, specifically MGO, offers several advantages over traditional FIAT payments.  With FIAT, it normally takes quite a bit of time for developers to actually receive their payments.  Occasionally, this burdensome process can drag out for weeks to months.  This is critically important as some developers are responsible for running large companies.  The earnings, on a platform like Xsolla, need to be withdrawn in a timely manner in order to pay employee salaries, purchases necessary technological equipment, meet rent and loan obligations, etc.  Therefore, waiting for weeks on end to receive earnings isn’t going to work.

Additionally, FIAT withdrawals are normally subject to significant transaction fees and commissions.

When one factors all that in, it’s not really a surprise that MGO is quickly becoming the currency of choice for game developers.  MGO payouts are faster, cost-efficient, extremely secure, and very simple to use.  Once funds are received, the withdrawal process is as easy as a few mouse clicks.  MGO tokens can be sent to most cryptocurrency wallets that are ERC-223 integrated.  Another option is to withdraw the tokens direct to crypto exchanges such as Bitfinex and Bitforex.

As soon as the MGO tokens are received, users are in full control of them.  The tokens can then be converted to popular cryptocurrencies such as ETH, BTC, USDT on exchanges that support MGO tokens, or swapped directly for FIAT currencies.

Conclusion

The past 12 months have certainly been a depressing time for many.  A lot of traders have lost money and many crypto executives have seen their projects fail.  And although quite a few projects will face the same fate, one that won’t is MobileGo.  As MGO continues to see increased adoption within the development and gaming communities, it’s very likely that the token price could see a significant increase as well.

Disclosure:  Chris Matthews owns MGO tokens.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Lite.IM Surpasses Facebook In Race To Support Cryptocurrency Compatible Messenger

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Since the early part of 2018, crypto traders have been bombarded with bad news.  Hacks, broken promises, and overall lack of enthusiasm have resulted in huge losses.  But more than that, some promising cryptocurrencies just haven’t survived.  As traders look to the future, they should begin looking at projects that have the potential to disrupt industries and take them to the next level.  One company that has the potential to accomplish that is Zulu Republic (ZTX).

Zulu Republic is an ecosystem of blockchain tools and platforms, designed as a place where people, businesses, and organizations can thrive on their own terms.  The company’s stated mission is to advance the development of decentralized technologies, to promote human rights and empowerment around the globe, and to reduce the global digital divide.

Well the company is off to a great start with the development of Lite.IM.

What is Lite.IM? 

Lite.IM is a project aimed at expanding global cryptocurrency adoption.  With Lite.IM, users can send, receive, and manage Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC), and the company’s native currency (ZTX), on Facebook Messenger, Telegram, and SMS (in the USA and Canada).  To get started managing these cryptocurrencies on the aforementioned platforms, users simply need to send a text-based command to the Lite.IM bot.  The commands are as follows:

Telegram:  @LiteIM_bot

Facebook Messenger:  @lite.im

SMS (USA and Canada only):  760-LITEIM-0

Competition with Facebook

On December 21st, 2018, Facebook announced that it was developing its own stable cryptocurrency that users would be allowed to exchange through its popular chat service, WhatsApp.  But while Facebook’s initial approach will target users based in India, Lite.IM is open to everyone in the world.  Further, Zulu Republic has previously mentioned that they expect to announce support for WhatsApp in the next few weeks.  It certainly appears as though Lite.IM has the upper hand here.  And that is before even addressing Facebook’s obvious privacy concerns.

When it comes to cryptocurrency, privacy and security have always been two issues at the forefront.  Given the rough year that Facebook has had in that regard, users must certainly be forgiven if they have trouble trusting the social media giant.  In September, 2018, Facebook announced that an attack on its computer network had exposed the personal information of nearly 50 million users.  Apparently, the hackers were able to exploit a feature in Facebook’s code to gain access to user accounts.  Even prior to this announcement, Facebook was already under Congressional scrutiny over revelations that a British analytics firm obtained access to private information from nearly 87 million Facebook users.  Not to mention Facebook’s rumored involvement with Russian election meddling.  Suffice it to say, it has been a tumultuous year for Facebook.

And while users may have concerns trusting Facebook’s ability to handle cryptocurrency data, they shouldn’t have those same concerns with Lite.IM.  Private keys are RSA encrypted with the user’s password.  Lite.IM will never ask for that information nor will it be stored.  Because of this, no third party will ever have access to that valuable information.

Conclusion

The truth of the matter is that Facebook is an absolute giant and has grown at an extraordinary rate since its initial public offering.  Facebook has hired some incredible talent, from executive positions to marketing to development.  And while one should never count them out, I simply wouldn’t be able to trust them with all of the recent issues.  Perhaps in time, after regaining the public’s trust, users could once again look to Facebook as a leader.

Fortunately, users have another strong and dependable option.  Lite.IM will allow users all over the world to manage popular cryptocurrencies via their favorite messenger platform.  Users should continue to stay tuned for future developments.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Product Owner Interview – GShare Has Potential To Increase Adoption Of MobileGo (MGO) Tokens

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In early December, I wrote an article on why investors should be paying attention to MobileGo (MGO).  Exploding popularity of the gaming industry and an impressive partnership agreement with Xsolla led to a surge in MGO’s token price.  In addition, the team of MobileGo created an application, called GShare, that has the potential to significantly increase MGO token adoption.

What is GShare?

GShare essentially allows users to rent the power of their computers to earn virtual coins.  These coins can then be redeemed later for several gaming options including tournament entry fees.  Through this platform, a user can control the amount of computer resources that are used throughout the process.

Although GShare is currently only at the public beta testing stage, virtual coins can still be earned by making purchases for Xsolla products.  But, according to Igor (the product owner of the GShare app), the goals are much more global than just Xsolla.  Fortunately, I was able to land an interview with Igor and asked him about the goals, benefits and upcoming upgrades of the project.

Interview

What is the mission and vision of the project?

Igor:  Ok, the mission and vision are basically to enable anyone, with the focus group being gamers, to easily obtain free stuff.  For example, for simply sharing their time and computing power, users can come away with games, in-game items, and eSports tournament tickets for free.

What is the advantage of this application as compared to other earning tools in the gaming industry?

Igor:  The main advantage is simplicity.  Thanks to the partnership with Xsolla, another important advantage is being able to use the virtual currency to buy games and make in-game purchases.  In the future, I expect that users will be able to earn items directly within the application.  While there are other programs available in the market that allow users to earn virtual currencies, typically users must spend a long time, sometimes up to a year, to earn enough virtual currency to purchase a basic product like a keyboard.

The general idea of GN Gold (GShare currency) is that we will eventually have an entire ecosystem that will support it.  In the future, we fully expect there to be a deep integration between game publishers and being able to use GShare directly to get different items – this is the first step to earing free items outside of the games.   We hope to separate ourselves from competitors by forming more direct integration with the games themselves.

What is the actual development status?  As far I know it’s still in beta test mode.

Igor:  Yes, we can say it is a public beta test.  But it is available.  Anyone who registers in GShare can download and use it.  The test mode is available for the first 500-1000 users of the platform.  This will help our team to identify and fix the bugs.  At present, our internal version is 0.9.17.

If I remember correctly, there was a recent upgrade.  Is that accurate?

Igor:  Yes, it actually happened a few days ago.  Next week, we plan to upgrade the version by adding additional languages including English, Russian, Chinese and Korean.  After that, the plan is to add Spanish and Japanese in the near future.

Are there any other upgrades you are expecting soon, perhaps in the next couple of months?

Igor:  I think that the first noticeable change will be some type of boosting feature.  After performing certain actions or tasks, users will see an increase in their GShare Gold earning rate.  An example of a boost might include increased earning power for two hours.  We expect to begin working on this feature on Monday although I don’t expect it to be completed until February at the earliest.

How is GShare currently interconnected with other products?  Are there any upcoming changes in this respect?

Igor:  Right now, there are no direct connections except that a user can spend GShare Gold on the competitive platform.  A user’s GShare Gold is used as a participation fee.  If a gamer wins a tournament, they will have the option to receive their prize in either MGO tokens or GShare Gold currency.

As far as I know, both products (the earning app and competitive platform), use the same username and password.  Is that true?

Igor:  Yes, they do.  All products of the ecosystem will be easily accessed via a single user profile.  So, we will focus mostly on integrating with games and allowing game-publishers to integrate with us.  In this way, users can directly spend GShare Gold within the games or use the currency to get items directly.

Okay, are there any technical requirements before someone can run the GShare App?

Igor:  I wouldn’t say there are any specific requirements.  Since gaming already requires significant computing power, it’s fair to say that most gamers will already have the necessary hardware to run the app.

I just want to clarify one thing.  As I understood it, the eSports platform is now used mainly for casual games?

Igor:  Yes.  The eSports platform now targets casual gamers while GShare is targeting more of a core gamer audience.

What are the limitations and how can someone know whether they should use GShare?

Igor:  At the moment, that’s a very difficult question to answer given that we’ve only just launched the beta.  During this test period, we hope to learn more about whether an average gaming machine with an average GPU will be enough to earn users some profit.  Although I can say that even laptops with just CPU are able to earn something right now.  It’s also important to remember that the boosting feature, in which development will begin shortly, will play a pivotal role here.

What are the future goals for GShare?

Igor:  For me, the goals are like most other technology businesses – stability and scalability of the application.  Certainly, we hope to make the experience as pleasurable for the users as possible.  Avoiding bad experiences, like application crashes, are of paramount importance.

Some of the team will be working constantly on improving the algorithms, stability and scalability, fixing bugs, and making small fixes in the background.  In the near term, the priority is certainly to finish earning item features, testing it, and getting as many game publishers as possible.  The boosting feature is also very important.

Does GShare have the potential to change the gaming industry in the long-term?

Igor:  Well, the company’s long-term goal is to do good things.  We hope that all these products and GShare will be able to support the community and create strong social values.  Users can choose to interact within the framework of a thematic platform.  An example of that would focus on how a gamer’s view is changing.  This is not just about gaming but allowing people to use their computer for many things while not having to make any effort to go outside.

…. and what’s the scope of the project?

Igor:  Well, for me personally, the scope is to provide as much profit for users as possible.  It would be great if people could run the application overnight while earning a few dollars.  That would really be something.

What are you doing to increase awareness of the GShare Application?

Igor:  Our team is working on that right now.  In January, we expect to begin introducing the app to the Chinese and Korean markets.  In addition, we are negotiating with partners.  Word of mouth among gamers will also play a big role.  That, of course, will depend on the quality and success of the beta.

This will be my final question.  What role do you play in this project?

Igor:  Well, when I came to the company, they wanted me to lead the core.  Prior to joining, I was a product manager for the core team in my previous role.  The previous role afforded me a lot of experience but, for me, it had become a bit tiresome and uninteresting.  It was really about the things that the ordinary user doesn’t see, and I was dealing with all the back-end.

This project is different.  It sounds like “Oh, we haven’t go these” – now you do!  Right now, I’m trying to figure out ways to give the end users as many benefits as possible.  I spend a lot of my time ensuring a good user experience.

Chris:  Igor, thanks so much for taking the time to give me an interview.

Igor:  You’re welcome.  Feel free to contact me anytime if you have more questions.

Although GShare is still in the initial stage of development, the potential is certainly there for a bright and meaningful relationship between gamers and publishers.  As awareness increases, there is a strong possibility that adoption of MobileGo (MGO) tokens will also increase.

Disclosure:  Chris is long MGO tokens.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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