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Why Would Anyone Have Faith In Tether?

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I don’t want to get sued for slander so let me explain the reasoning beyond today’s title. After all of the turmoil surrounding Tether on Monday, how can the price be anywhere near the $1 parity level with the US dollar?  After more than a year, how can anyone have confidence in Tether and their common law partners Bitfinex when, for example, Circle, backed be the highly respected Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs offers an alternative?  We should also mention that Circle is just one of many so called stable coins.

It isn’t hard to find a list. Exchanges are feverishly adding stable coins. Singapore based Houbi is adding Paxos Standard Token (PAX), True USD (TUSD), Circle (USDC) and Gemini (GUSD).  

When Stable Coins Cause Instability

Well, the evidence is mounting as the months move along that so called stable coins can have the power of creating anything but stability.  This week’s experience with Tether, Bitfinex and the price explosion of Bitcoin demonstrates that there are still dangers lurking. This is why trust is important.

Monday’s gyrations were not the first questionable moment for Tether.  The coin, which gains its intended stability by being tied on a one for one basis with the US dollar, has been the subject of questionable behavior all year.  

As far back as January trade sources were expressing concern the Tether was responsible for last December’s major price bubble in Bitcoin.  The frenzy over Bitcoin set off speculation across the entire crypto spectrum. But that was just the beginning.

In June Bloomberg reported on a paper by John Griffin, a finance professor at the University of Texas, that among other things claimed 60% of last year’s price move in Bitcoin was the result of manipulation surrounding Bitfinex. That directly implicates Tether.

Using algorithms to analyze the blockchain data, Griffin’s team found that purchases with Tether were timed following market downturns and result in sizable increases in Bitcoin prices. Less than 1% of hours with such heavy Tether transactions are associated with 50% of the meteoric rise in Bitcoin and 64% of other top cryptocurrencies.

These findings prompted the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission to step in with a series of subpoenas.

Tether’s coins had become a popular substitute for dollars on cryptocurrency exchanges worldwide, and for good reason. They are anonymous, closely tied to the value of the US dollar and can be used in exchange for Bitcoin, Ether or about 10 other cryptocurrencies.  Tether is closely associated with Bitfinex, with whom they share common shareholders and management.

Bitfinex has offices in Hong Kong but it is legally headquartered in the British Virgin Islands. In May they announced plans to move to Zug, Switzerland. Bitfinex has a sorted history of poor security, having lost nearly $100 million worth of Bitcoin from customer accounts. Moreover, while claiming to have total one for one US dollar backing for each Tether, real proof is absent.  

Further Evidence of Manipulation

Over the course of this year, as we have gathered digitally to witness the loss of nearly $600 billion in crypto value, everyone has been looking for the culprit. When I first read of some of the academic studies that blamed the advent of futures trading on the CBOE, I laughed. Honestly, I believed the real cause of the rise and fall of crypto were a well connected group of billionaires that together had the power to move markets.  

Well the folks at Chainalysis have just produced some surprising research results. Their Blockchain Intelligence Platform powers investigation software for some of  the world’s top institutions. These guys don’t do surveys, the have their hands on big data that is able to detect some interesting stuff.

Chainalysis released a new report last week showing that the so called Bitcoin whales are not responsible for price volatility. The study examined the 32 largest BTC wallets, which reportedly represent 1 million BTC, or around $6.3 billion. That is a pretty solid sample size.

The data revealed that the BTC whales are do not act in concert with one another. In fact not only are they a diverse group but about two thirds behave like longer term investors. Instead of being FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) types, on net they have traded against the heard buying on price weakness.

Putting The Pieces Together

The crypto world is bombarded with globally generated news on an hourly basis. But what does all of it mean anyway? Hopefully this article adds some perspective on what and who has been responsible for the direction of crypto prices over the past year.  As more of these weak players are identified and depleted of their business, real investors will have the confidence to return to the market.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 115 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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Zcash Price Analysis: $100 Bargain Buying

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  • ZEC/USD is running at four consecutive daily sessions closing in the red.
  • Chunky buying interest looks healthy within the $100 price region.

ZEC/USD is currently stuck within a very stubborn bearish trend, as seen across the crypto market wide. Several key areas have been breached, however the ZEC/USD bulls are heavily defending vital support territories. The price is running at its fourth consecutive session in the red, having lost over 25% within this trading period.

Recent Bull Failure

As covered in the previous article, the bulls were penetrating near-term stubborn resistance, seen just above $140 territory. Six solid sessions, ZEC/USD had tried to break above, but very much so failed, as a result, the price headed deeply south. Large spikes in volumes were seen with the move lower. It was forced to its lowest levels in over nine weeks.

Downside Targets

ZEC/USD daily chart

First of all, looking to the downside, there is much cover in terms of safety nets for the falling price. Chunky areas of demand are seen tracking from $108 all the way down to $96. In the latest moves lower, buyers have heavy defended a total free-fall. The mentioned demand region did prove its reliability back in the middle of September, during a heavy bear market.

ZEC/USD weekly chart

Observations from the weekly chart look potentially dangerous, should the bearish momentum maintain its current course. A firm breach through the $100 buying area could be devastating. The next firm area, given this is very much uncharted, can be seen at the round $90 level, which is a weekly support area. Further to the downside, $75 is the next target. This is a consolidation area, which was seen prior to the chunky bull run from the back end of April to June.

Above all, price behavior still points to further potential heavy moves lower. Following the weighted pressure on Wednesday and Thursday, price action has stabilized, trading in a consolidation nature. The range has narrowed, moving within $114 – 107. As a result, the current formation can be perceived as a bearish flag pattern, which is subject to extended moves south.

ZEC/USD 4-hour chart

Upside Targets

The $100 territory is very much attractive, as detailed above, historically for buyers. Should bullish momentum kick in around these levels, there is opportunity for a strong upside run. The ZEC/USD bulls will need to retest $140 area; given the number of times this has been tested, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a fast breach. Finally, looking further north, $160 could come quickly into play, high area of early September.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 54 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Litecoin Price Analysis: LTC/USD Has Fallen Through Vital Support; Where Next?

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  • Critical support for LTC/USD was breached just under the $50 area, leaving the door open to further downside pressure.
  • LTC/USD is moving within a range/consolidation block, subject to another explosive move.

LTC/USD has remained firmly within a downside trend, showing no signs of that shifting anytime soon. Out of the last ten sessions, LTC/USD has closed on the daily in the red for nine of those. Litecoin having lost as much as 27% within this trading period, a move which is generally inline with the rest of the greater market. The focus is now on where LTC/USD will find its feet on some firm ground.

Daily Chart View

LTC/USD daily chart

Looking via the daily time frame, the price has extended through a known touted demand area. This was seen tracking from the big psychological $50 mark, down to $47.50. LTC/USD has previously been comforted by this zone on several occasions. It proved support in August, September and October. This area has always having proven to see decent buyers come in to send the price back on its way north.

4-Hour Chart View

LTC/USD 4-hour chart

Current price behavior remains somewhat worrying via the 4-hour, after the deep drop, LTC/USD has entered a small range block. It is currently licking its wounds, following the bears vicious attack. The price is moving tightly, between $45.00 to $42.50 at the time of writing. Given this technical move being observed, it would not be too surprising if this takes another stab lower. Typically range blocks tend to be broken in an explosive manner.

Next Major Support Areas

LTC/USD weekly chart

The weekly chart view can provide some insight into downside levels to be aware of. In terms of support, the next major level would be eyed at $38 territory. The price has not been seen here since July 2017. LTC/USD had bounced around this area for 7 weeks, between 19th June to 31st July. This move was being observed during a period of consolidation, prior to the big bull run seen in August 2017.

Deeper to the downside, eyes would then be on $33 another vital weekly support level. Price last bounced here in September 2017, requiring support before resuming a bull run. A breach here could be very much catastrophic. There isn’t much support, other than psychological round number areas for LTC/USD. This fall to the downside is very much uncharted territory. If the bearish momentum retains its current course, then $20 or even a return to $10 cannot be ruled out.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 54 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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TRON Price Analysis: TRX/USD Moves Within Proven Buying Area

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  • TRX/USD flirting with a huge buying area, historically proven to see buyers swoop in.
  • Justin Sun sings praises on 100 million $TRX trading volume for Tron DEX.

TRX/USD has been suffering heavily, in line with a large bearish reversal seen across the board. The price is running sharply lower, closing on the daily in the red. After TRX/USD had broken out to the downside from a supporting ascending trend line and retested, selling pressure has been consistent. Within the current trend, the price today – Thursday 15th November, was forced to drop to its lowest level seen in around nine weeks.

TRON News Flow

The TRON foundation has not been shy on the update front of late, continuing to push out positive developments from the camp. It was only recent that a new Tron decentralized exchange, DEX was launched.  Over the past few days it has seen a large amount of popularity. Tronscan.org was acknowledged by Tron’s founder, Justin Sun, via Twitter, which heavily contributed to a further pick up in trading volumes.

Justin Sun tweeted, “trx.market  breaks 100 million $TRX trading volume! Next milestone is 500 million”. The founder continues to be very much supportive of these TRON based projects, given his active recognition via social media. Despite the protracted bear market, Sun disregarded this in a recent tweet, showing a screenshot of the double-digit losses seen on Wednesday across the crypto market. He then quite comically compared the Coinmarketcap view with the Tron DEX, showing TRX related pairs trading in the green.

Technical Review – TRX/USD

TRX/USD daily chart

The TRX/USD bears have in the session been testing a vital area of demand. This is seen tracking from $0.01800 down to 0.01700. Previously in August and September, the mentioned area provided firm support in propping up the price. Most recently, the price had dipped into this territory on 12th September, where TRX/USD gradually went on to gain over 60%. Earlier, on August 14th, buyers pilled in, seeing the price gradually gaining over 70% over a period of time.

Given the history of buyers camped in this area, bulls should come back into play imminently. If this does prove to be the case for TRX/USD, eyes will be on another retest of the broken ascending trend line. This is seen tracking around $0.02550. The bears had initially breached this area of support, on 29th October. TRX/USD was supported in its move higher, from 12th September, by this trend line, before the break lower.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 54 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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