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Why Would Anyone Have Faith In Tether?

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I don’t want to get sued for slander so let me explain the reasoning beyond today’s title. After all of the turmoil surrounding Tether on Monday, how can the price be anywhere near the $1 parity level with the US dollar?  After more than a year, how can anyone have confidence in Tether and their common law partners Bitfinex when, for example, Circle, backed be the highly respected Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs offers an alternative?  We should also mention that Circle is just one of many so called stable coins.

It isn’t hard to find a list. Exchanges are feverishly adding stable coins. Singapore based Houbi is adding Paxos Standard Token (PAX), True USD (TUSD), Circle (USDC) and Gemini (GUSD).  

When Stable Coins Cause Instability

Well, the evidence is mounting as the months move along that so called stable coins can have the power of creating anything but stability.  This week’s experience with Tether, Bitfinex and the price explosion of Bitcoin demonstrates that there are still dangers lurking. This is why trust is important.

Monday’s gyrations were not the first questionable moment for Tether.  The coin, which gains its intended stability by being tied on a one for one basis with the US dollar, has been the subject of questionable behavior all year.  

As far back as January trade sources were expressing concern the Tether was responsible for last December’s major price bubble in Bitcoin.  The frenzy over Bitcoin set off speculation across the entire crypto spectrum. But that was just the beginning.

In June Bloomberg reported on a paper by John Griffin, a finance professor at the University of Texas, that among other things claimed 60% of last year’s price move in Bitcoin was the result of manipulation surrounding Bitfinex. That directly implicates Tether.

Using algorithms to analyze the blockchain data, Griffin’s team found that purchases with Tether were timed following market downturns and result in sizable increases in Bitcoin prices. Less than 1% of hours with such heavy Tether transactions are associated with 50% of the meteoric rise in Bitcoin and 64% of other top cryptocurrencies.

These findings prompted the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission to step in with a series of subpoenas.

Tether’s coins had become a popular substitute for dollars on cryptocurrency exchanges worldwide, and for good reason. They are anonymous, closely tied to the value of the US dollar and can be used in exchange for Bitcoin, Ether or about 10 other cryptocurrencies.  Tether is closely associated with Bitfinex, with whom they share common shareholders and management.

Bitfinex has offices in Hong Kong but it is legally headquartered in the British Virgin Islands. In May they announced plans to move to Zug, Switzerland. Bitfinex has a sorted history of poor security, having lost nearly $100 million worth of Bitcoin from customer accounts. Moreover, while claiming to have total one for one US dollar backing for each Tether, real proof is absent.  

Further Evidence of Manipulation

Over the course of this year, as we have gathered digitally to witness the loss of nearly $600 billion in crypto value, everyone has been looking for the culprit. When I first read of some of the academic studies that blamed the advent of futures trading on the CBOE, I laughed. Honestly, I believed the real cause of the rise and fall of crypto were a well connected group of billionaires that together had the power to move markets.  

Well the folks at Chainalysis have just produced some surprising research results. Their Blockchain Intelligence Platform powers investigation software for some of  the world’s top institutions. These guys don’t do surveys, the have their hands on big data that is able to detect some interesting stuff.

Chainalysis released a new report last week showing that the so called Bitcoin whales are not responsible for price volatility. The study examined the 32 largest BTC wallets, which reportedly represent 1 million BTC, or around $6.3 billion. That is a pretty solid sample size.

The data revealed that the BTC whales are do not act in concert with one another. In fact not only are they a diverse group but about two thirds behave like longer term investors. Instead of being FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) types, on net they have traded against the heard buying on price weakness.

Putting The Pieces Together

The crypto world is bombarded with globally generated news on an hourly basis. But what does all of it mean anyway? Hopefully this article adds some perspective on what and who has been responsible for the direction of crypto prices over the past year.  As more of these weak players are identified and depleted of their business, real investors will have the confidence to return to the market.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 115 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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Cardano Price Analysis: ADA Must Hold This Key Support or Be Forced to Give Up $0.04 & $0.03

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  • ADA/USDT price action has formed a head and shoulders pattern, subject to a possible neckline break.
  • Chunky supply is heavily capping upside for ADA/BTC, tracking from 0.00001400-0.00001200.

ADA/USDT in the very latter stages of trading on Sunday was seen nursing chunky losses of over 5%. The price has continued to trade within a choppy nature, a failure to see commitment from either bear or bull camp for ten sessions now. Market participants have been treading extremely cautiously since the steep fall on 10th January. ADA/USDT had plummeted a whopping 22% within the mentioned session. It was the biggest drop in a single session observed since 16th January 2018, where the price tanked around 44%.

Head and Shoulders Formation

ADA/USDT daily chart.

Looking via the daily chart view, price action has been constructing a head and shoulders pattern formation. The left shoulder and head are seen with the right shoulder close to completion. Currently the price on the latest candlestick heading south is edging closer to the neckline, which will determine whether the textbook pattern will materialize. In terms of the vital support (neckline), this is tracking at $0.047000. Should the bears sustain the downside momentum observed in this session, then a breakout could be seen in the next day or two.

Key Support Areas

A breach of the above-detailed neckline will likely open another wave of hard selling pressure. On this potential note, key areas of comfort should be known at $0.039000 (daily support), $0.035500 (27-28th December 2018 low area). Going by the distance between the head and neckline of the pattern, a drop down to the December 2018 lows may be seen. As a result, this would see a retest of the low area from 7th-15th December, $0.027600. Strong buyers came into play here in mid-December to send ADA/USDT back into a decent upside trend.

ADA/BTC Technical Review

ADA/BTC daily chart.

Upside is capped as the price trades within a very stubborn area of supply. There is a chunky amount of resistance that tracks from 0.00001400 down to 0.00001200. The price has not traded comfortably above this region since the start of September 2018. Furthermore, given the continued rejection and lack of upside momentum, ADA/BTC could be seen back down to the demand area below, 0.00001000. Further south, eyes would be on December low area, 0.00000800.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 110 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Return to $100 Billion Awaits as Crypto Market Loses $5B in One Hour

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The cryptocurrency market lost $5 billion worth of value in fifty-five minutes on Sunday, as Bitcoin once again dipped into the high $3,500 range.

The entire stack of cryptocurrencies appears to be on dangerous footing, and despite miraculous growth recorded by various altcoins in recent weeks, one gets the feeling that a return to a market valuation of $100 billion is just a dip or two away.

That’s the valuation the market struck on December 15th, 2018 – a near eighteen-month low at the time. In a search for omens beyond those provided by technical analysis, the current daily trade volume in the $18 billion range is twice the $9 billion recorded during that December low, meaning the current volatile period could be extended a while longer.

Bitcoin Price Sinks

At 11:29 UTC Sunday, the value of BTC sunk from $3,730 down to $3,590 – a 3.75% drop off, and all within fifty-five minutes.

By 12:24 UTC, the rest of the market had followed suit, and small and mid-cap altcoins such as Wanchain (WAN), Ardor (ARDR) and Aion (AION) all lost over 10%. Major altcoins fared only slightly better, and by the end of the drop the global market had sunk from $124 billion down to $119 billion – a 4% drop overall.

Closer to the top ten, several major alts lost between 7% and 10%, including EOS (EOS), IOTA (MIOTA) and NEO (NEO).

EOS Price

EOS sunk 7.14% from the daily high of $2.52 down to $2.34 during the fifty-five minute plunge. Technical analysis from two days ago suggested EOS was on shaky footing, and its losses on Sunday were twice that of Bitcoin, and even more again than XRP.

The highest concentration of trades came from a little-known exchange called Dobi Exchange, where EOS/BTC trades made up almost half of the platform’s daily turnover.

IOTA Price

From MIOTA’s daily high of $0.325250, the coin price fell 7.6% down to $0.300415. That wipes out most of MIOTA’s gains for the week, and returns the coin to the $0.30 range – one which has been in and out of play since late November of last year.

USDT and BTC trades dominated among MIOTA’s pairs, with ETH and KRW only offering single digit percentages of IOTA’s $7 million daily trade volume. IOTA had recorded 17% growth during the previous week, with $0.28 remaining the weekly base.

NEO Price

After falling out of the top ten, and almost the top twenty during 2018’s market plunge, NEO recorded 77% growth leading into January – more than Ethereum or XRP managed during the same time period.

On Sunday however, NEO saw a reduction of 10% as the coin price fell from $8.37 down to $7.53. NEO trade volumes rose 49% over the weekend, topping $161 million thanks to increased action on the DragonX, BitForex and Bit-Z exchanges.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 125 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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Dash Price Analysis: DASH/USDT Downside Risks Linger Despite Trust Wallet Support Announcement

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  • DASH/USDT price action is moving within a narrowing range formation, subject to further downside risks.
  • Trust Wallet, Binance-owed crypto wallet provider, announces support of DASH.

Price Behavior

DASH/USDT has been trading within a $6 range for the tenth session in a row, at the time of writing. The upper part of this range should be noted at $73. Looking to the downside, the lower support of the formation is seen at $67. The price, like many of its peers within the cryptocurrency market, is stuck within a narrowing range block. They are all currently demonstrating strong downside vulnerabilities, given the current behaviour.

This trading range came after a steep fall in the market last Thursday, 10th January. Double-digit losses were seen across the board after moving within a prior narrowing range formation. DASH/USDT had a strong run from 15th – 24th December, gaining as much as 81% within that time frame. Following the high print towards the latter part of that period, at $102.50, price cooling was seen and then begun to trade sideways.

Between 26th December 2018 – 9th January 2019, DASH/USDT was moving between a narrow $86 at the high and $73 at the low. This led to the explosive breakout to the downside, where the price dropped around 20% on 10th January.

Trust Wallet Supports Dash (DASH)

Trust Wallet, a mobile crypto wallet owned by Binance, announced earlier this week that it has added support for Dash. The announcement followed after just a week ago, when the wallet provider revealed the support of Litecoin (LTC), Bitcoin (BTC), and Bitcoin Cash (BCH). In addition, the app also supports Ethereum (ETH), Ethereum Classic (ETC), Tron (TRX) and others.

The team at Trust Wallet, upon their DASH support update, also left users somewhat excited about further announcements lined up. They stated, “Going forward, we will monitor the performance and stability of our Dash release very closely, and if everything works well, hopefully, we can surprise you with more new coins in the coming weeks!”

Technical Review – DASH/USDT

DASH/USDT daily chart.

A breakout of the key mentioned levels that make up either side of the range, $72 and $67, will likely determine the next committed trend. Firstly, in terms of the next major area of support south, eyes will be on the December low area, $58. To the north, drop supply remains heading into and just above the psychological $100 mark.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 110 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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