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Why Government Regulation Will Fail

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The crypto markets have been buzzing lately with as much price volatility as ever.  The attention, as usual, often appears to be on how many dollars have been lost or what ginormous percentage loss has taken place.  There is all this talk about broken support levels and the urgent need of a price reversal.  

Not to dismiss the importance of keeping everyone informed on the latest action, what about the underlying cause of investors running for the sidelines.  On the technical side one thing is certain.  The still pathetically slow transaction speeds of both bitcoin and ether magnify price spikes and corrections.  

That is what happens in illiquid markets.  Over time this will change but in the short run it is something that is part of daily life.  This alone is what makes it so difficult to apply classical Dow Theory based technical analysis to crypto.

Let’s Dig Into The Causes

When we look at cryptocurrencies in general, starting with bitcoin, one of the big questions is the future role of government will play.  It is not so much a big question as hundreds of little questions.

The most relevant question in the past few months is the role of government in controlling cryptocurrency exchanges.  Back in September it was the Chinese closing local exchanges. Now it is the South Korean proposal to enact legislation that could have a similar effect.

From December peak levels, bitcoin has fallen more the 40%. At its low ether was down as much as 38%.  Neither price movement can be attributed to technicalities like profit taking.  It was the perception the governments in two of the big crypto trading countries hold some sort of absolute power.  In reality, this is a false perception and here are some of examples of their powerlessness.  

BTCC Shows Crypto Power

BTCC is China and the world’s first Bitcoin exchange going back to its founding in 2011. At one point last year China was the biggest source of demand for Bitcoin by some measures accounting for 40% of the global action.  Then China slammed down the hammer by closing local exchanges threatening BTCC very existence.

Survival – Revival

The story of BTCC is like a slap in the face to the Chinese government and a good example of their lack of power.  Just the other day, BTCC announced they had been acquired by a Singapore investment fund.  Very few terms were announced so there is more to be revealed but some things are obvious.

I am guessing that if a sophisticated Singapore investor is putting real money into BTCC they see a bright future. BTCC has since relocated to Hong Kong and re-registered in the UK.

BTCC already has the tools to become a global exchange.  For example its Mobi Bitcoin wallet supports over 15 languages and more than 100 cryptocurrencies.  Now with enhanced financial support, they are able outflank the powerful Chinese government.

The Korean Contradiction

Investors reading the news this month from South Korea learned about a legislative proposal to restrict exchanges domiciled in the country.  Judging from the negative price action, it would have been easy to suspect the government was banning ownership of cryptocurrencies.  That was never the case.  

In reality, South Korean exchanges were setting prices that any reasonable observer would consider egregious.  Regulating South Korean exchanges could help level the playing field for small investors and open up the crypto market to new investors. But, judging from the price action this month, you would have to expect government restrictions on ownership. That is not going to happen and here is why.

Korean Pension Funds Invested in Crypto Exchanges

Local news in Seoul are talking about the giant South Korean National Pension Fund holding investments in as many as four local cryptocurrency exchanges.  At just a few million dollars, it amounts to less than 1% of total SKNPF assets.  

Nevertheless, this amounts to a political embarrassment to any effort that would potentially diminish the value of the four exchanges in the SKNPF portfolio.  The South Korean Pension Fund is no slouch ranking as one of the largest in the world.  So their decisions could also serve as an example elsewhere in the world.

Lots of Sound And Fury, Signifying Nothing

Emerging markets like cryptocurrencies are inherently volatile and subject to a heavy dose of emotion.  The past two months have been good examples of how investors can read the headlines and react.  It is important to keep the true cost of trading on trading on headlines can be.  Under the new tax law long term investment is rewarded.  Short term profits can no longer be deferred by a swap into similar assets.  Five years from now will anyone remember the fears from Chinese or South Korea?

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 115 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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Altcoins

GBP Price Prediction: British Pound Jumps on Growing Backing for PM May’s Brexit Deal Ahead of Vote

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  • GBP catches a bid across the board as Prime Minister Theresa May gains ERG support.
  • Despite session gains, GBP/USD technically has vulnerabilities to downside risks, given rising channel formation.

GBP Bulls Awaken

The British pound (GBP) saw a decent jump to the upside on Monday, after an initially very choppy directionless start to the session. The buying swooping into GBP/USD came on the back of a growing number of ministers set to back Prime Minister Theresa May. Specifically, attention was grabbed after closely followed political watcher Robert Peston tweeted that “influential Tory Brexiter MP tells me he and his ERG Brexiter colleagues will be voting with Theresa May and the government all day tomorrow”. This is significant as the ERG is a very influential Brexit research group, which was previously plotting ways to oust PM May.

GBP/USD jumped to its highest level seen since 22nd November. The pair had seen an initial spike of 85 pips to the upside. Gains were capped however by a known strong area of supply; this can be seen tracking from 1.2870 up to 1.2930. The price has not been above here since 15th November 2018, and the bulls having faltered here on several occasions attempting to move above. Should GBP/USD manage to move above this zone, it would be a very strong signal that it is out of the bear market. Technically, this would be largely attractive for inviting further buyers to come in.

A detailed analysis of the upcoming Brexit vote can be viewed here: This Tuesday Will Be Zero Hour For the British Pound

Price Remains Confined Within Channel

GBP/USD daily chart. Price action remains within the confinements of a rising channel.

Another key technical observation is an ascending channel formation, which can be viewed via the daily chart. The GBP/USD pair has been moving within this since 12th December 2018, having gained over 400 pips since it took shape. The daily candle today briefly spiked above the upper tracking trend line of the pattern. However, the price was squeezed back within the confinements of this. Touted profit-taking kicked in towards the close of the European markets. This is not too surprising, as participants maintain an element of caution heading into the high-profile vote.

Given the nature of the above-described formation, should it play out to the textbook, vulnerabilities still point to a breakout south. This move would be heavily assisted should the British Prime Minister lose the meaningful vote on Tuesday. In terms of key levels to note, to the upside, a break above the 1.2930 supply zone will invite large buying pressure. To the downside, a breach of 1.2650, the lower support of the channel, will open flood gates to selling.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 107 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Market Overview

Markets on Edge as President Trump Cancels North Korea Meeting

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U.S. President Donald Trump has called off a highly anticipated meeting with North Korea, citing “anger and open hostility” from Pyongyang.

Strained Diplomacy

President Trump was scheduled to meet Kim Jong-un in Singapore on June 12 to advance a preliminary peace agreement between North Korea and South Korea. The Trump administration pledged peace and economic cooperation with the North Korean regime if it agreed to relinquish its nuclear arsenal.

Pyongyang took a combative stance last week in response to joint military drills between the United States and South Korea, a move it regarded as “provocative military disturbances.” North Korea’s rhetoric grew more threatening this week after the country’s senior envoy to the U.S. threatened America with an “appalling tragedy that it has never experienced nor imagined.”

In a letter to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, Trump said: “I felt a wonderful dialogue was building up between you and me, and ultimately, it is only that dialogue that matters. Some day I look very much forward to meeting you.”

White House officials said Thursday that the meeting could still be revived, though no further details were provided.

Markets React

U.S. stocks declined sharply in the wake of President Trump’s announcement, with Dow industrials falling more than 260 points. The blue-chip index was down 191 points, or 0.8%, at 11:31 a.m. ET.  Meanwhile, the large-cap S&P 500 Index fell 0.6% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.5%.

Gold, a preferred safe haven for investors, shot up to more than one-week highs Thursday morning. The August futures contract rose $15.50, or 1.2%, to $1,310.30 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Silver futures advanced 24 cents, or 1.5%, to $16.65 a troy ounce.

Oil prices continued lower in the wake of a shock inventory report on Wednesday from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA said crude stockpiles surged 5.8 million barrels in the latest week, confounding expectations of a 1.9 million-barrel drop.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were down 66 cents, or 0.9%, at $71.18 a barrel Thursday. Brent crude, the international futures contract, declined 67 cents, or 0.8%, to $79.13 a barrel.

In economic data, U.S. jobless claims rose unexpectedly last week, though the underlying picture continued to point to a tightening labor market. The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits rose 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 234,000 in the week ended May 19.

The National Association of Realtors also reported a bigger than expected drop in U.S. existing home sales for April. Sales of previously-owned homes declined 2.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.46 million.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 737 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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Blockchain

How Blockchain Can Help Companies Face the New GDPR Rules

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The new General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) guidelines governing the European Union (EU) officially come into play on May 25. Businesses and their associated websites had about three years to comply with the new set of rules. The companies that didn’t bother adjusting their data collection methodologies could face stiff fines.

Most companies issued a new “Terms of Use” to be on the safe side of the road. However, a blockchain system could solve the problem once and for all.

According to the GDPR, companies are expected to follow new guidelines in order to be allowed to operate for European citizens. Those regulations include the ability for the user to consent to their data being processed, the knowledge of who is processing the data and the ability to withdraw consent at any time..

Blockchain can play a vital role in this process. Websites that have users register on a distributed ledger system provide an upper hand, allowing them to be in charge of the data they provide.

Blockchain’s Role

When applied to systems in need of identity management, blockchain can operate in a level no other protocol can. The way it stores, collects and distributes data is revolutionizing. There is a brand new set of capabilities not available on any existing data protection method.

Blockchain verifies data usage through a complicated combination of public and private signatures, data hashing and encryption. This allows a person’s data and identity to be saved only on his end, rather than on a server. When that data is requested, it has to be provided from the user’s device instead of the main server.

While running on a blockchain system, the user is able to process exchanges personally, meaning the company that wants his data will have to get his consent in order to access them. This allows the user to have absolute control over his information, as well as know the company that uses it, meeting the GDPR’s “Right to Erasure” condition.

The use of blockchain also eliminates the need for massive databases since each user stores his own data. Blockchain makes it possible for each user to connect when needed, allowing companies to keep minimum information on customers and employees. Applying those changes to their products as well allows the company to meet GDPR’s “privacy by design” condition.

Privacy by design is, in essence, a new GDPR provision. According to it, companies are obligated to have platforms that are built on data privacy, with their products or services privacy in the cognizance of the rightful user. With blockchain technology, the process is automatically private, thus meeting the privacy by design criteria.

It remains to be seen if GDPR rules come into place on May 25 and whether fines will actually be levied on websites that do not comply. According to GDPR, the fees may come up to 4% of its annual global turnover, or €20 million, whichever is greater. This amount is enough to deter both small and large companies, although implementation will be key.

Blockchain can be the pioneer system behind the web sooner than we think. GDPR paves the way for greater blockchain adoption at a level that extends far beyond core business functions and cryptocurrency transactions.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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