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Analysis

What if Bitcoin falls?

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It’s called digital gold for a reason. There are many parallels that we can draw between the physical asset that is the original form of money and this new digital asset that is the future of money.

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I remember a time back in 2009 when gold crossed $1000 an ounce for the first time. Investors were feeling generally uncertain about the future of Europe and inflation in the USA and were fast reverting to gold as a source of stability. Analysts were calling for $2000 an ounce, some were as aggressive as $5000.

(This chart shows the price from 1960 until today)

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It never did get to $2000 though. The highest price came in at $1920 an ounce in 2011. At that time leverage requirements changed in the USA and eventually, sentiment shifted.

“In the long term, the price of gold will always rise.”

My grandfather taught me that and I still believe it’s true. If you’re a short term, high risk trader in a six year bear market that sentence bears little relevance.

The purpose of this writing is not to scare you. Rather, we need to note that cryptocurrencies are the most fast paced market since the beginning of time. I do believe that we’re moving to a digital economy very rapidly and that the value of the blockchain will need to rise sharply in order to support that, but as prices can fluctuate extremely rapidly, we should at least explore the possibility of where it might go if a major pullback does come.

Always think about the other side of the coin. 😉

Volumes

Japan has already legalized it. A major infrastructure change is coming very soon in the world’s third largest economy. We know that Bitflyer has signed a contract that ensures bitcoin is accepted at hundreds of thousands of retail stores across the island nation and that about 20 new bitcoin exchanges will be coming online shortly.

India is currently reviewing the option to legalize and regulate digital currency. After the harsh and rapid demonetization, they’re in sore need of an alternative to paper money. They have a panel working on it now and hopefully, we’ll get some good news in the coming weeks.

On or before Monday, May 15th, the SEC will deliver a decision to either approve or deny the world’s first bitcoin ETF, which if approved will open the markets to Billions of Dollars in institutional investments.

As I’m writing, the total market cap of bitcoin has just breached $30 Billion for the first time ever. A notable milestone but still not nearly enough to support the global economy, which now stands above $1 quadrillion.

However, according to coinmarketcap.com, the current volumes are coming from Poloniex, Kraken, and Bithumb (Korean exchange). Bitflyer is less than 3%. This tells me that most of the money flooding in at the moment is in fact, speculation money.

Technical Analysis

In January, I made a video called Bitcoin Rush, that descibed the simple technical analysis pattern that the price has been following.

You can see the video here:

Since that video, the pattern has held outstandingly well. Of course, past performance is not an indication of future price movement but if the pattern continues this is what we can expect.

This graph shows the price of bitcoin over the past year and a half.

The red, white, and yellow lines are covered in the video. To recap, every time the price breaks a line, it continues to surge until it finds an arbitrary price to turn around, then comes back to touch, or even dip below the previous line.

Since the video was made, the price went all the way up to $1336 (blue line) then indeed retraced back to the yellow line just below $775.

Let’s ignore for now the green circle, which is the excitement around the first SEC ETF decision. We can see the massive spikes on March 10th when the ETF was declined but the long term price moves were not affected.

Now, let’s hope that the price continues to rise, the tipping point comes, and we never see it at $1800 a coin again. But…. if we do see a retracement, there is no support on the chart until $1136, or possibly $1292 (the highest price inside the green circle). Either way, the next support is more than $500 away.

This content is for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or an investment recommendation. 

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you’re prepared to lose.

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



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Analysis

Bitcoin’s Record-Breaking Rally Continues as Prices Cross $8,100

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Bitcoin surged to new highs on Sunday, as the world’s largest crypto by market cap continued to generate bids following the cancellation of Segwit2x.

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BTC/USD Price Levels

The value of a single bitcoin reached a daily high of $8,110.59, its best level on record. At press time, BTC/USD was valued at around $8,002 for a gain of 4%.

With the gain, bitcoin’s market cap now exceeds $133 billion. That’s roughly $100 billion greater than Ethereum, the market’s second most valuable cryptocurrency.

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Bitcoin has added more than $1,100 over the past five sessions. It was down around $5,600 just one week ago.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH), a digital currency alternative that broke away from the original blockchain Aug. 1, was down 5.1% at $1,185. BTC and BCH locked horns earlier this month after the Segwit2x hard fork was abandoned.

$10,000 and Beyond?

Institutional clearing platform LedgerX has initiated its first long-term bitcoin futures option, which is set to expire Dec. 28, 2018. In setting up the option, LedgerX is assuming a price of $10,000 at the time of expiration. That’s a 25% premium on current levels.

Investors who buy the option are essentially saying they believe prices will exceed $10,000 by the time of expiration.

Bitcoin is being helped by growing institutional demand for the digital currency, as hedge funds, day traders and other mainstream investment outfits look to access this burgeoning asset class. CBOE and CME Group have each announced plans to integrate bitcoin into more conventional investment vehicles in the coming months.

The rush of institutional money into bitcoin is a sure sign that the digital asset class is becoming too big to ignore. The value of all cryptocurrencies in circulation has already exceeded $230 billion, with more than a dozen coins valued at $1 billion or more. Nine others have a market cap of $500 million or greater.

Coinbase Responds

The rise of institutional capital has also compelled Coinbase to introduce a custodial service targeted at account holders with more than $10 million in assets. This service targets hedge funds and other institutions that have remained largely on the sidelines of the crypto revolution.

In a recent blog post, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong announced that the new service will launch sometime next year.

“When we speak with these institutions, they tell us that the number one thing preventing them from getting started is the existence of a digital asset custodian that they can trust to store client funds securely,” Armstrong wrote.

In addition to maintaining the minimum $10 million asset requirement, institutions must pay a $100,000 setup fee to gain access tot he Custodial program. In response, institutional investors will receive assurance that their assets are secure.

The Coinbase Custody website lists broad support for bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH) and Litecoin (LTC), as well as ERC20 tokens. The ERC20 protocol has emerged as the favorite for startups launching initial coin offerings (ICOs), a controversial crowdfunding model that has already overtaken early stage venture capital.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

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Cryptocurrencies

Is Ethereum Ready to Play Catch Up With Bitcoin?

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In mid-June of this year, the difference between the market capitalization of bitcoin and Ethereum had narrowed down to less than $8 billion. This had many market participants excited. They expected Ethereum to dethrone bitcoin as the leader, a move popularly termed as flippening.

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Key observations

  1. Ethereum has hugely underperformed bitcoin
  2. The chart pattern suggests that Ethereum is likely to play catch up in the next few months
  3. Stay on the long side of Ethereum to benefit from the bullish setup

However, fast forward five months and the difference in the market capitalization of the top two cryptocurrencies has increased to about $96 billion. This shows that while bitcoin has raced ahead in the past few months, Ethereum has hugely lagged behind.

However, is the underperformance about to end?

The chart pattern shows that Ethereum is likely to embark on a rally of its own that can carry it to $645 to $670 levels in the next few months. Let’s see how we arrived at these levels.

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Ethereum opened trading at $8.16 on January 1, 2017. It started its rally in March and by June 12, it reached a high of $420, an astronomical rally of about 5047%. Thereafter, it entered a period of consolidation, digesting the gains.

On the charts, Ethereum has formed a large symmetrical triangle, which usually acts as a continuation pattern. The breakout is generally in the direction of the long-term trend, or the trend that was prevailing before the pattern formed. In this case, the sharp move from January to June confirms that the cryptocurrency was in an uptrend before forming the triangle.

However, this is not a fool proof trade because sometimes the symmetrical triangle acts as a reversal pattern. Therefore, the best way to play this trade is to wait for a breakout of the triangle before initiating any trade.

Where can we take an entry?

Currently, the resistance line of the triangle is at about $378 levels, a level close to today’s intraday highs. The bears are likely to strongly defend this level. However, if the bulls breakout of $378 and manage to close above the resistance line, the trade on the long side will set up.

Different traders use different methods to confirm whether the breakout is valid or not. Some wait until price moves 3% above the breakout level, others wait for three consecutive closes above the resistance level.

However, we have observed that the best breakouts never look back, hence, waiting for three days may lead to a missed opportunity. Therefore, we can wait for a closing above the resistance line of the triangle and initiate the long positions on the following day.

The breakout can face resistance at $400 and $420. However, we expect the virtual currency to scale both these resistances and rally towards its pattern target zone of $645 to $670.

Notwithstanding, even the most reliable patterns can fail. Therefore, our stop loss will be kept at $340. We don’t want to hang on to the trade if it falls back into the triangle. We shall raise our stops to breakeven as soon as Ethereum breaks out to new lifetime highs. From thereon, we shall trail the stops higher to protect our paper profits.

Note

The chart pattern suggests a resumption of the long-term uptrend in Ethereum. However, this will not get confirmed until the cryptocurrency breaks out and sustains above $380. Therefore, please initiate positions only on a breakout and close above the triangle. Entering presumptive trades may result in losses.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

 

 

 

 

 

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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bitcoin Flirts with $8000 as Altcoin Bull Persists

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Bitcoin’s swift recovery was the main topic of the week, as the most valuable coin not just regained its steep losses, but hit a marginal new high towards the end of the period. The entire segment is experiencing capital inflows as the total value of the coins climbed above $230 billion for the first time ever after finally leaving the vicinity of the $200 billion mark.

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BTC breached the $8000 level before turning slightly lower on Friday, but despite the severely overbought daily chart, it is still trading near its all-time highs. As the long-term picture still suggests a deeper correction, investors should wait with opening new positions and traders should also control position sizes here. Key support levels are found at $7700, $7000, and $6700, while the recent key break-out level at $5000 still hasn’t been re-tested.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

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Dash is still the most bullish altcoin from a technical standpoint, despite this week’s short-term correction, as the coin is trading above its prior all-time high, and this weekend, it looks ready to test the break-out high near $500. Support levels are still found at $400, $360, and $330, and as the long-term picture is approaching overbought territory, investors should only hold on to their positions here.

DASH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

The other major altcoins are also mostly in bullish setups, with some of them already in the latter stages of this cycle, like Monero and IOTA, but elsewhere in the segment, there are still opportunities for both traders and investors. Let’s see the detailed long-term view.

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