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Market Overview

We’ve Never Been This Low

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Hi Everyone,

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Thousands of protesters. The government on the verge of terminating all Supreme Court Justices who do not bow to the current government. Europe and the United States issuing a warning not to proceed with such anti-democratic measures. You’d think we’re talking about a third world country. Nope.

This is happening in the heart of the free world, in Poland.

For one thing, it’s good to see the people of Poland on their feet and protesting these changes. Though the fact that there are only thousands of protesters and not more is a little worrying.

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@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

Dollar Sinking

OPEC IMF & UKUS

Bit-fork Ahead?

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of July 24th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Market Overview

This week in the markets has started much like the last one has ended, eerily quiet.

The VIX volatility index closed out on Friday at a new all time record low of 9.36. This graph from Bloomberg shows the “fear index” since inception. We’ve simply never been this low before.

European and U.S. stock markets pulled back a bit on Friday, but Asia is mixed so far this week.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar continues to sink into oblivion. Since the beginning of the year, it’s down almost 8.8%. Let’s take a look at the long term chart.

It’s not just Trump sinking it either. The ramp up that we see on the left side of the chart was a move made largely in hopes that the Fed would be raising their interest rates. Now that the interest rate expectations seem to be slowing, the Buck is losing momentum and starting to fall.

Busy Day Ahead

With plenty of headline events on the agenda today it’s difficult to tell just which ones will have a heavy impact on the markets. The London dispatch to Washington DC could have some effect on the Pound as they seek to establish a framework for post-brexit U.S.-U.K. relations.

The IMF will also have the spotlight for a bit when they announce their global growth forecasts. The International Monetary Fund is probably the most qualified organization to make such predictions about the global economy. An upbeat report today could definitely have an effect on investors moods.

… but the thing that I’m watching most closely is the OPEC meeting in Russia. In particular, we want to hear about Nigeria and Libya. These two countries were exempt from the current production cuts since they’re just recovering from some rough geopolitics.

So now that they’ve more or less brought their production levels back to normal many will be expecting them to join in and put a maximum limit on themselves.

Over the past year, the price of oil has been relatively stable between $40 and $55. The sharp pullback at the end of last week (white circle) was rather dangerous but if OPEC and friends pull off a stunning show today they could try and coax the sticky black stuff back towards the middle of its range.

Trouble Ahead

Judging from the price of bitcoin over the past few days it almost looks like the trouble is behind us but judging from online forums and signals coming from the various mining pools we may yet see more turbulence ahead.

At this point, it looks like a total meltdown of the network may have been avoided as the SegWit solution is almost certain to be implemented shortly. The feeling is that many who are signaling for SegWit are actually supporting SegWit2x and that we could very well be headed for a hard fork by the end of the year.

At this point, we need to consider the technical analysis as well as the fundamentals. At this point, there’s a wide range of about $1200 between the two blue lines. The price is between it’s all time high, just shy of $3000, and the low point of the pullback that ended last Sunday.

Let’s have an awesome week!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be a investment advice or recommendation.
The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Featured image from Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



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5 Comments

5 Comments

  1. mvppvm_07

    July 24, 2017 at 2:48 pm

    re: crypto markets / Because most tokens/coins seem unofficially tethered to BTC, doesn’t it make sense to utilize this forum, asks a naive one, to conduct a 90 day “use case review” of TA and other less formal analyses of the price possibilities of BTC?
    The November BTC block size debate conclusion, the SegWit signaling, versioning, correlation of funds in/out….a whole host of scenarios present themselves as ways for ‘Hacked’ to offer multiple insights into the way this market morphs (or not) with the 40% variance illustrated in your $3000 – $1800 range of money making opportunities. I’d love to see more detailed risk analyses on this during the next 3 months.

  2. Mati Greenspan

    July 24, 2017 at 2:52 pm

    That actually seems like a really good idea.

  3. thesupermk

    July 25, 2017 at 1:27 am

    About Poland – it’s not that easy. Currently the judges basically appoint themselves to Supreme Court and it’s been a long term problem with Polish judicary system, that there’s absolutely no control over judges. They are practically above law.

    There have been many, many cases, both involving individuals, and big issues concerning the whole country, where judges were corrupted and no one could do anything.

    The reform was an attempt to change it. It might not have been the best one, but it’d make the judges accountable to something. But since there are groups that are benefiting from the current state of affairs, and there’s a lot of hysteria among the opposition (who said themselves their only aim in politics now is to get rid of the ruling party) – hence all the commotion.

    I’m far from saying the reform was good, but it’s not “back to communism”, it’s not “third world country”, etc. It was very clickbait slogans, very emotional, aimed to create an atmosphere of immediate danger.

    Fun fact – the previous (absolutely corrupt) establishment is doing that since Sep 2015 (when the current ruling party won), and basically according to them democracy and freedom ended at least three times already. That’s why only 50 thousand or so people (out of 38kk in Poland) were protesting – only those who would lose directly with the change, and this small group that believed in the hysteria.

    I’m just writing that to clarify that it’s not that one-sided as it’s painted.

    It has been vetoed by the president anyways now, so I guess we’re stuck with the current judicary system for longer.

  4. Lexarich

    July 25, 2017 at 9:58 am

    Just wanted to straight one thing You have wrote at the beggining. I’m from Poland and I see there is a lot of propaganda and missunderstanding. You really need to dig dipper if You want to know the truth, about 25years back… And the truth is there is shit loads of corrupted Supreme Court Justices from post communism times, they allowed previous governments to scam our country for years. And now once they finally lost elections, they cant stand it… doing everything to get their “system” back, propaganda, media, a lot of noise and manipulation going on, they even PAY PEOPLE TO PROTEST… And You want to know why there is lack of people on protests? Majority of Poland knows what is going on and we have chosen this government to do this. Like I said, ignore the noise and dig dipper if You want the truth… I’m just surprised what kind of propaganda You have wrote here…

  5. Mati Greenspan

    July 26, 2017 at 9:20 am

    Hi guys,

    Many thanks for the clarification. Indeed, I’m not as sharp on Polish politics as I probably should be and it’s great to hear from two people who know more than myself on this subject.

    Will continue to dig deeper as you suggest and will continue to call the shots as I see them. 🙂

    -Mati

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Market Overview

Dow Jones Hits New Record After Brief Stint at 23,000

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to New records Tuesday, powered by stronger than expected earnings for major health blue chips.

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Dow Touches 23,000 In Intraday Trade

The blue-chip index briefly traded above 23,000 before paring gains to settle a mere three points shy of the milestone. The index rose 0.2% to 22,997.44 for a new all-time record.

Sixteen of the Dow’s 30 index members contributed to the rally. UnitedHealth Group (UNH) and Johnson & Johnson were the best performers after each reported earnings that beat forecasts.

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On the opposite side of the ledger, Goldman Sachs (GS) shed 2.6% despite posting better than expected Q3 results.

With the gain, the Dow has now finished in positive territory in 12 of the past 15 sessions. Over that period, it has added 3.2%.

The broader S&P 500 Index also climbed to new highs Tuesday, adding 0.1% to finish at 2,559.36. Health stocks led the gains, climbing 1.3% as a sector.

Meanwhile, the tech-driven Nasdaq Composite Index pared losses to settle flat at 6,623.66.

However, the gains on Tuesday were accompanied by a mild increase in volatility, with the CBOE VIX settling in the double digits for the first time in a week.

Economic Data Largely Positive

The latest batches of industrial production and housing data painted a favorable picture of the U.S. economy. Industrial production – the broadest measure of factory output – rose 0.3% in September, the Federal Reserve reported Tuesday. Analysts had forecast an increase of 0.2%.

A closely watched measure of housing market conditions also strengthened more than expected this month. The National Association of Home Builders’ housing market index climbed four points to 68 for October. That was the highest level in five months.

Upbeat data helped the U.S. dollar notched its fourth consecutive gain on Tuesday. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) climbed 0.2% to 93.51.

The dollar strengthened against the pound and euro, while paring gains versus the yen and loonie.

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Dollar Rally Continues amid Fed Chair Confusion

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Tuesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2554 -0.09%
DAX 12995 -0.07%
WTI Crude Oil 51.53 -0.66%
GOLD 1287.00 -1.22%
Bitcoin 5652 -0.86%
EUR/USD 1.1751 -0.38%

Yesterday’s trends are mostly continued in financial markets, such as the low-volatility levitation in stocks and the slightly more active trading in currencies with the apparent Dollar strength. The Great British Pound continued to be under pressure amid the amplified Brexit-related worries, but most of the other majors also lost ground to the Greenback.

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The Dollar rally has been fueled by the rise in the odds of some of the hawkish Fed Chair candidates, while overall, the “race” for the positions looks more chaotic than ever. Interestingly, the long-end of the yield curve is refusing to follow the short-term moves, and without the effects of the Fed’s QE program, the yield curve would probably be inverted by now, signaling strong recession risks.

Dollar Index (DXY), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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The major stock indices are virtually unchanged yet again and even the previously surging Nikkei entered a consolidation, adding to the unusual October lull. Commodities have been quite active thanks to the Dollar’s vigor, with crude oil and gold both turning lower. Oil gave back most of yesterday’s gains as the Iraqi-Kurdish conflict turned out to be less violent than previously feared, and the brief rally fizzled.

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Cryptocurrencies

The major coins are having a mixed session at best, as yesterday’s rebound wasn’t durable, and most of the coins turned back lower again. That said, despite the recent choppy price action, the total market cap of the segment is close to its all-time high, even as only Bitcoin is trading near its own record price level.

The optimism regarding Ethereum major Byzantium upgrade wasn’t enough to lift the second most valuable coin today, and the price of the ETH token retreated below the key $330 level after touching $350 yesterday after the upgrade’s lock-in. Ripple and NEO have been among the most active majors today, but with opposing performances, as Ripple fell significantly after yesterday’s break-out attempt, while NEO defied gravity and jumped above the $30 level after a corrective period.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Technical Picture

The S&P 500 is grinding higher despite the overbought short-term momentum readings, and the benchmark is trading very close to its all-time high. The 2550 level is still in focus, but until volatility remains near record lows, the minuscule moves are unlikely to change the technical setup. While a sudden drop in prices could quickly negate the recent break-out, the consolidation could very well lead to further upside, as bulls remain firmly in control, despite the lofty valuation levels.

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Tuesday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
02:30 AUSTRALIA RBA Meeting Minutes
10:30 UK CPI 3.00% 3.00% 2.90%
11:00 GERMANY ZEW Sentiment 17.6 20.3 17
12:00 EUROZONE Final CPI 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
15:15 US Industrial Production 0.30% 0.40% 0.20%
15:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate 76.00% 76.20% 76.10%

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Cryptocurrencies

Gold Creating Kilonova

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For the first time ever astronomers around the world were treated to an astonishing event in outer space called a Kilonova.

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Two dead stars known as neutron crashed into each other at high speed. The stars were relatively small (just about 12 miles in diameter) but extremely dense. Some scientists estimate that a single teaspoon of the star’s substance would weigh a billion tons on Earth.

The outcome of the collision was the creation of copious amounts of metals that are extremely rare here on earth like Gold and Platinum. The sight is being hailed as one of the biggest advances in astrophysics and even answers the age old question “where does gold come from?”

Some Bitcoin extremists on the web were quick to point out that gold may not possess as much rarity as it used to and therefore is no longer the best store of value as it was throughout history.

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However, the Kilonova did take place approximately 130 million light-years away. So until we invent interstellar travel gold’s status as a backup monetary system and safe haven remains solid.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

 

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of October 17th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Market Overview

Stocks are generally positive today as the global equity bubble reaches ever higher. As we’ve mentioned most analysts feel that stocks are expensive but that this overvaluation may continue for up to two years.

The US Dollar is also making a move of strength lately and is up sharply against its peers over the last 30 days.

Over the long term though, this move in the Dollar is simply a bounce against a larger downward trend that’s been happening since Donald Trump took office.

Of course, Trump’s weakening of the Dollar could also be seen as a small reversal from the upward trend that’s been forming over the past decade.

Today’s Event

The highlight today will most likely be a speech from the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, who will be testifying before the Treasury Select Committee in London.

Traders want to know if indeed Mark will be raising the English Interest rates at their meeting next month. Currently the market is placing an 83% chance of a hike on November 2nd.

Furthermore, if indeed the rates are raised, investors want to understand the future path of monetary policy in the UK. Will this hike be a “one and done” or are we on the path to further hikes going forward?

In the wake of the referendum, the BoE cut interest rates near zero to try and cushion the Brexit blow. Now that it’s clear that the blow is less than expected many economists feel that it’s time to reverse that move.

The GBPUSD is strengthening this morning in anticipation but if Carney does indeed want to sustain these moves, he’s gonna need to be a bit more aggressive than he’s been to date.

Ripple Short

Ripple’s first annual Swell conference is well underway. No doubt everyone there is very excited about the recent announcement from the Gates Foundation that they will be using Ripple’s technology in their new efforts to open the world of banking to billions of people.

Just before the conference started though there was another unrelated announcement that could affect the price as well. The tech giant IBM has just made public their new Hyperledger Blockchain with the goal of speeding up international interbank transactions.

This sounds extremely similar to Ripple’s goal, which is to “replace the Swift system that banks currently use to send funds.”

Now, I’m no bank manager but I do believe that most big banks would be quicker to work with an established company like IBM than with even the most successful startup.

As far as the technical analysis of Ripple’s XRP token goes, we are just near the top of a huge price range from 15 cents to 30 cents.

On top of all that, the topmost copied Cryptotrader in eToro has just announced on his wall that he’s going for a big short sell with the anticipation of a price drop.


Of course, short sell trading is risky and cryptotrading is even more risky. So as always please be sure to diversify your investments and build a proper portfolio.

Let me know if you need any help with that. Today I’ll be holding a webinar to discuss the markets and portfolio positioning with our top equity clients. If you are one of them, feel free to join in at: etoro.tw/Webinar

Let’s have an amazing day!!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.
The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



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