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Market Overview

We’ve Never Been This Low

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Hi Everyone,

Thousands of protesters. The government on the verge of terminating all Supreme Court Justices who do not bow to the current government. Europe and the United States issuing a warning not to proceed with such anti-democratic measures. You’d think we’re talking about a third world country. Nope.

This is happening in the heart of the free world, in Poland.

For one thing, it’s good to see the people of Poland on their feet and protesting these changes. Though the fact that there are only thousands of protesters and not more is a little worrying.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

Dollar Sinking

OPEC IMF & UKUS

Bit-fork Ahead?

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of July 24th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Market Overview

This week in the markets has started much like the last one has ended, eerily quiet.

The VIX volatility index closed out on Friday at a new all time record low of 9.36. This graph from Bloomberg shows the “fear index” since inception. We’ve simply never been this low before.

European and U.S. stock markets pulled back a bit on Friday, but Asia is mixed so far this week.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar continues to sink into oblivion. Since the beginning of the year, it’s down almost 8.8%. Let’s take a look at the long term chart.

It’s not just Trump sinking it either. The ramp up that we see on the left side of the chart was a move made largely in hopes that the Fed would be raising their interest rates. Now that the interest rate expectations seem to be slowing, the Buck is losing momentum and starting to fall.

Busy Day Ahead

With plenty of headline events on the agenda today it’s difficult to tell just which ones will have a heavy impact on the markets. The London dispatch to Washington DC could have some effect on the Pound as they seek to establish a framework for post-brexit U.S.-U.K. relations.

The IMF will also have the spotlight for a bit when they announce their global growth forecasts. The International Monetary Fund is probably the most qualified organization to make such predictions about the global economy. An upbeat report today could definitely have an effect on investors moods.

… but the thing that I’m watching most closely is the OPEC meeting in Russia. In particular, we want to hear about Nigeria and Libya. These two countries were exempt from the current production cuts since they’re just recovering from some rough geopolitics.

So now that they’ve more or less brought their production levels back to normal many will be expecting them to join in and put a maximum limit on themselves.

Over the past year, the price of oil has been relatively stable between $40 and $55. The sharp pullback at the end of last week (white circle) was rather dangerous but if OPEC and friends pull off a stunning show today they could try and coax the sticky black stuff back towards the middle of its range.

Trouble Ahead

Judging from the price of bitcoin over the past few days it almost looks like the trouble is behind us but judging from online forums and signals coming from the various mining pools we may yet see more turbulence ahead.

At this point, it looks like a total meltdown of the network may have been avoided as the SegWit solution is almost certain to be implemented shortly. The feeling is that many who are signaling for SegWit are actually supporting SegWit2x and that we could very well be headed for a hard fork by the end of the year.

At this point, we need to consider the technical analysis as well as the fundamentals. At this point, there’s a wide range of about $1200 between the two blue lines. The price is between it’s all time high, just shy of $3000, and the low point of the pullback that ended last Sunday.

Let’s have an awesome week!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be a investment advice or recommendation.
The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Featured image from Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 115 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




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5 Comments

5 Comments

  1. mvppvm_07

    July 24, 2017 at 2:48 pm

    re: crypto markets / Because most tokens/coins seem unofficially tethered to BTC, doesn’t it make sense to utilize this forum, asks a naive one, to conduct a 90 day “use case review” of TA and other less formal analyses of the price possibilities of BTC?
    The November BTC block size debate conclusion, the SegWit signaling, versioning, correlation of funds in/out….a whole host of scenarios present themselves as ways for ‘Hacked’ to offer multiple insights into the way this market morphs (or not) with the 40% variance illustrated in your $3000 – $1800 range of money making opportunities. I’d love to see more detailed risk analyses on this during the next 3 months.

  2. Mati Greenspan

    July 24, 2017 at 2:52 pm

    That actually seems like a really good idea.

  3. thesupermk

    July 25, 2017 at 1:27 am

    About Poland – it’s not that easy. Currently the judges basically appoint themselves to Supreme Court and it’s been a long term problem with Polish judicary system, that there’s absolutely no control over judges. They are practically above law.

    There have been many, many cases, both involving individuals, and big issues concerning the whole country, where judges were corrupted and no one could do anything.

    The reform was an attempt to change it. It might not have been the best one, but it’d make the judges accountable to something. But since there are groups that are benefiting from the current state of affairs, and there’s a lot of hysteria among the opposition (who said themselves their only aim in politics now is to get rid of the ruling party) – hence all the commotion.

    I’m far from saying the reform was good, but it’s not “back to communism”, it’s not “third world country”, etc. It was very clickbait slogans, very emotional, aimed to create an atmosphere of immediate danger.

    Fun fact – the previous (absolutely corrupt) establishment is doing that since Sep 2015 (when the current ruling party won), and basically according to them democracy and freedom ended at least three times already. That’s why only 50 thousand or so people (out of 38kk in Poland) were protesting – only those who would lose directly with the change, and this small group that believed in the hysteria.

    I’m just writing that to clarify that it’s not that one-sided as it’s painted.

    It has been vetoed by the president anyways now, so I guess we’re stuck with the current judicary system for longer.

  4. Lexarich

    July 25, 2017 at 9:58 am

    Just wanted to straight one thing You have wrote at the beggining. I’m from Poland and I see there is a lot of propaganda and missunderstanding. You really need to dig dipper if You want to know the truth, about 25years back… And the truth is there is shit loads of corrupted Supreme Court Justices from post communism times, they allowed previous governments to scam our country for years. And now once they finally lost elections, they cant stand it… doing everything to get their “system” back, propaganda, media, a lot of noise and manipulation going on, they even PAY PEOPLE TO PROTEST… And You want to know why there is lack of people on protests? Majority of Poland knows what is going on and we have chosen this government to do this. Like I said, ignore the noise and dig dipper if You want the truth… I’m just surprised what kind of propaganda You have wrote here…

  5. Mati Greenspan

    July 26, 2017 at 9:20 am

    Hi guys,

    Many thanks for the clarification. Indeed, I’m not as sharp on Polish politics as I probably should be and it’s great to hear from two people who know more than myself on this subject.

    Will continue to dig deeper as you suggest and will continue to call the shots as I see them. 🙂

    -Mati

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Market Overview

Market Update: U.S. Stocks Rise After Fed Chairman Testimony; Earnings in Focus

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U.S. stocks rebounded Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress that economic growth and inflation should keep the central bank on track to raise interest rates later this year.

Stocks Rise

All of Wall Street’s major indexes reported gains on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq Composite Index returning to record territory. The technology-focused average climbed 0.6% to 7,855.12.

The broader S&P 500 Index rose 0.4% to close at 2,809.55, with seven of 11 primary sectors finishing in positive territory. Materials stocks were the biggest gainers, rising 1.3% as a cluster. Technology, consumer staples and healthcare stocks also outperformed the broader market.

Dow industrials gained 55.53 points, or 0.2%, to close at 25,119.89.

Expectations of 30-day volatility drifted toward six-month lows on Tuesday in a sign of prevailing calm on Wall Street. The CBOE VIX Volatility Index declined 6% to 12.06.on a scale where 20 represents the historic average.

Powell Testifies

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Congressional hearings began Tuesday in a session chaired by the Senate Banking Committee. Though not appearing overly hawkish, the Fed leader indicated that short-term interest rates are likely headed higher in the coming months.

“Overall, we see the risk of the economy unexpectedly weakening as roughly balanced with the possibility of the economy growing faster than we currently anticipate,” Powell said.

He added: “The unemployment rate is low and expected to fall further. Americans who want jobs have a good chance of finding them.”

The Fed’s policy-setting board is scheduled to meet July 31 but is not expected to raise interest rates again until the September gathering. Policymakers and investors have priced in two more upward adjustments this year to the federal funds rate.

Powell will resume his testimony on Wednesday.

Earnings in the Spotlight

With corporate earnings season in full swing, investors are closely monitoring top- and bottom-line results of S&P 500 companies.

Netflix (NFLX) reported weaker than expected subscriber growth late Monday, sending share prices sharply lower. According to The Wall Street Journal, the stock was poised for its single-worst session in two years.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) posted bottom-line results that were higher than expected, but rising legal costs weighed on share prices. The Wall Street giant reported per-share earnings of $5.98, crushing forecasts for $4.66. Organization-wide revenue jumped 19% to $9.40 billion, compared with estimates for $8.74 billion.

The earnings season is off to a positive start with roughly nine of ten S&P 500 companies posting stronger than expected profit results. However, as of Friday, only 5% of the S&P 500’s constituents had reported.

Despite the robust results, half of the S&P 500 companies that reported as of Friday said currency swings had a negative impact on their business. After a disastrous start to the year, the U.S. dollar index has returned more than 6% over the past three months. DXY rose half a percent on Tuesday.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 499 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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Market Overview

The King is a Fink

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Hi Everyone,

It’s true, I’ve always enjoyed reading the paper. When I was younger I used to track the price of gold daily in my grandfather’s copy of the Wall Street Journal. Before that though, I was drawn to the funnies.

The Wizard of ID is a classic. For those of you who aren’t familiar, it’s about a tyrannous but stout dictator, who hated it when people would call him a “fink,” even though the term has many meanings.

Speaking on Bloomberg yesterday, Blackrock’s CEO Larry Fink weighed in on many important issues including the ongoing trade wars as well as shooting down recent rumors that Blackrock is about to get into crypto.

The full video can be found here:

With $6.28 trillion under management, Blackrock is one of the largest financial institutions in the world and Fink is definitely the king. So it pays to listen to what he sees from this unique point of view.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

  • Trumputin Turning Heads
  • Earnings Season (New Tool)
  • 75 Lambo Traffic Jam (New Research Paper on ADA)

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of July 17th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Traditional Markets

Shock and awe were witnessed on the global main stage yesterday at the Helsinki Imperial Palace, where President Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump made jaws drop by aligning themselves on more than a half dozen hot button issues.

Picking up the most headlines was this statement, where Trump seemed to side with Putin over his own Intelligence Agency. Yet, despite the calls of “treasonous trump” from both Democrats and Republicans, the best the American people can hope for are some fair and compelling conclusions from special investigator Robert Mueller.

Meanwhile, stock markets are firmly in the red in Asia and Europe this morning as talk of a trade war and Fed tightening overshadow bullish investor sentiment.

Later today, about 30 minutes after the opening bell on Wall Street, we’ll get a special spectacle. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be in front of the US Senate Banking Committee, in addition to his prepared statement, there’ll also be a Q&A session. Should be fun to watch.

Earnings Season Underway (New Tool)

For those of you holding individual stocks, which I hope is most of you, earnings reports are important. Yesterday, some sour earnings sent Netflix down by nearly 15% after hours.

In order to help you keep better track of these opportunities, we’ve put together a nifty tool to help you keep track of which companies are about to publish their results.

Please bookmark this page: https://www.etoro.com/investing/earnings-reports/

Simply scroll down to see the schedule, as well as the forecasted EPS. If you’re interested in a specific stock, you can click the “+” button to add it directly to your watchlist. As well, you can search directly for upcoming announcements by company or by a future date.

Ether Spammer

Five million green teas, 75 Lambos, 25 Coinbase seed rounds, or 0.9% of the Telegram ICO.

According to Vitalik Buterin, that’s what it’s costing someone to spam the Ethereum network. On Sunday, the Ethereum network was clogged pretty much the entire day reaching a peak of 62,715 unconfirmed transactions at one point.

The miners were able to get that number down to under 10,000 this morning but the two nasty spikes last night along with Vitalik’s tweet indicate that some malicious player may be intentionally creating activity on the network in order to slow it down.

While Ethereum is by far the most popular platform for dApps at the moment, it’s clear that if they don’t scale quickly it may not stay that way forever.

New Research Paper (ADA)

Several blockchain 3.0 competitors are already under construction and after looking at all the top contenders, we’ve found that one of the most promising ones is Cardano.

For your convenience, we’ve put together the following research paper in order to assist you to make the best possible investment decisions when considering this unique and exciting token for your portfolio.

Please find the new research paper at: eToro.tw/Research-ADA

As with all emerging technologies investing in this project may be risky. Because the network is still in its infancy, we really have no way of pinpointing exactly what each ADA token should be worth and so should only be used as a small part of a well-diversified portfolio.

Let’s have an awesome day ahead!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.

The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Cryptocurrencies can widely fluctuate in prices and are not appropriate for all investors. Trading cryptocurrencies is not supervised by any EU regulatory framework.

Best regards,
Mati Greenspan
Senior Market Analyst

Connect with me on….

eToro: @MatiGreenspan | Twitter: @MatiGreenspan | LinkedIn: MatiGreenspan | Facebook:MatiGreenspan

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Market Overview

Market Update: U.S. Stocks Under Pressure Following Trump-Putin Summit as Oil Prices Hit Three-Month Low

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U.S. stocks finished mixed to lower on Monday, with sectors tied to commodities shouldering the majority of the losses following a major rout in oil prices.

Stocks Mostly Lower

The large-cap S&P 500 Index fell 0.1% to close at 2,798.43, with eight of 11 primary sectors finishing in the red.

Energy stocks were the worst performers, falling 1.2% as a cluster, as oil prices plunged to their lowest levels in three months. Materials and industrials followed suit.

Declining technology shares bumped the Nasdaq Composite Index from all-time highs. The index closed down 0.3% at 7,805.72.

Dow industrials bucked the downtrend, gaining 44.95 points, or 0.2%, to 25,064.36.

The CBOE Volatility Index, also known as the VIX, jumped more than 5% on Monday to close at 12.83. The so-called “fear index” briefly traded at six-month lows on Friday.

Trump-Putin Summit a “Good Start”

U.S. President Donald Trump says his meeting with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Helsinki was a “good start” in normalizing strained relations between the two superpowers.

Prior to the meeting, President Trump blamed previous administrations for the worsening relationship between both countries. Trump doubled-down on that message in a joint session following the meeting.

“I hold both countries responsible. I think that the United States has been foolish. I think that we’ve all been foolish. We should have had this dialogue a long time ago, a long time, frankly, before I got to office,” Trump said.

Although it’s not entirely clear what the two leaders talked about, various news sources have confirmed that talks went into a working lunch after two hours of closed-door talks. U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton confirmed that the meeting had no set agenda.

Many within the Washington camp wanted the meeting to be cancelled after 12 Russian military agents were charged with hacking the presidential campaign of Hillary Clinton.

Cryptocurrency Market Recovers

Bitcoin and other crypto-assets swung back into positive territory Monday amid reports that BlackRock, one of the world’s largest asset managers, has assembled a working group to explore digital currency adoption.

Cryptocurrencies added $15 billion in market capitalization over 24 hours, with the bulk of the gains occurring shortly after the BlackRock report hit the airwaves. The total market peaked near $271 billion, according to CoinMarketCap, as trade volumes spiked 34% to $13.8 billion.

The bitcoin price reached a high near $6,690 as trade volumes topped $4.9 billion. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is closing in on last weekend’s swing high near $6,900. Prices have failed to breakout of the $7,000 ceiling in well over a month.

In terms of percentage growth, bitcoin cash was the best performer in the top-ten, rising 9.5% to $795.

Ethereum prices jumped 5.6% to $477 while EOS gained 8% to $8.02.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 499 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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