Weekly Analysis: The Trump Saga Continues, so does Ethereum’s Surge
|Asset||Current Value||Weekly Change|
|WTI Crude Oil||48.10||-1.39%|
5 Things to Watch Next Week
- The Dollar: Will the weakness continue?
The US Dollar has been in trouble since the recent Federal Reserve meeting, despite the fact that the central bank raised its benchmark interest rate. The rate hike, in theory, should help the currency, but this time, the bank’s cautious outlook, together with the preceding rally in the Dollar, the reaction was the exact opposite. A classic “buy the rumor sell the news” situation.
As the Dollar has been pushing higher against most of the major currencies since the election, there is still more room for correction in the reserve currency.
EUR/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
- The US GDP print and the CB consumer confidence Index: The Fed is watching
Arguably the two most important economic releases of the week could have profound effects on financial markets following the latest Fed meeting, as the rate hike schedule of the bank remains a mystery.
- Ethereum: New highs ahead?
Ethereum has been the star of the recent period, as it kept on delivering new highs on almost a daily basis. Although the cryptocurrency might be getting overheated, the next week could hold more fireworks for traders. The recent break-out that we correctly anticipated carried Ethereum above the resistance zone that held the currency back all week.
Ethereum on the rise, Daily Chart
- Oil: An industry in turmoil
Oil producing countries and companies are spooked once again by the movements of crude oil, as a 3-month long consolidation concluded with a bearish break-down two weeks ago. As US shale production is on the rise and the OPEC, especially Saudi Arabia, is cornered by the new market pressures, it’s likely that oil will experience violent moves in the coming days.
- Trump: Will there be a healthcare deal?
The media covered the Republican Party’s debate regarding a new healthcare bill that supposed to replace “Obamacare”. The new president was forced to retreat at the end of the week, pulling the bill ahead of a risky vote. It’s hard to imagine that Mr. Trump will not try to reach a deal again in the near future. We expect continued focus on the story, although the real impact of the bill on financial markets is questionable.
In Focus: Cryptocurrencies
The performance of the main cryptocurrencies in March
March has been a very active month for cryptocurrencies so far, and while Bitcoin had a highly volatile and mixed period, some of the other majors gained significant ground. Ethereum and Dash surged higher more or less in tandem, bagging close to 200% in just three weeks. Monero is also on the rise with a commendable 60% gain.
The recent week was Ethereum’s without a doubt, as Dash and Monero remained below their previous highs and Bitcoin plunged back below 1000 on Friday. Litecoin has been the most stable of the major cryptocurrrencies, although the 8% gain could be interpreted as a positive sign, given the weak performance of Bitcoin.
Monthly trading volumes reflect the price action, as Ethereum has experienced a huge jump in interest and Dash also so significant inflows.
|Currency||Weekly Volume||Monthly Volume|
Key Economic Releases of the Week
|Monday||EUROZONE||German Ifo Business Climate||111.2||111|
|Tuesday||US||CB Consumer Confidence||113.9||114.8|
|Wednesday||US||Pending Home Sales (monthly)||2.30%||-2.80%|
|Wednesday||US||Crude Oil Inventories||5.0 million|
|Thursday||US||Initial Jobless Claims (weekly)||244,000||261,000|
|Friday||UK||Current Account||-16.3 bil||-25.5 bil|
|Friday||UK||Final GDP (quarterly)||0.70%||0.70%|