|Asset||Current Value||Weekly Change|
|WTI Crude Oil||48.10||-1.39%|
5 Things to Watch Next Week
- The Dollar: Will the weakness continue?
The US Dollar has been in trouble since the recent Federal Reserve meeting, despite the fact that the central bank raised its benchmark interest rate. The rate hike, in theory, should help the currency, but this time, the bank’s cautious outlook, together with the preceding rally in the Dollar, the reaction was the exact opposite. A classic “buy the rumor sell the news” situation.
As the Dollar has been pushing higher against most of the major currencies since the election, there is still more room for correction in the reserve currency.
EUR/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
- The US GDP print and the CB consumer confidence Index: The Fed is watching
Arguably the two most important economic releases of the week could have profound effects on financial markets following the latest Fed meeting, as the rate hike schedule of the bank remains a mystery.
- Ethereum: New highs ahead?
Ethereum has been the star of the recent period, as it kept on delivering new highs on almost a daily basis. Although the cryptocurrency might be getting overheated, the next week could hold more fireworks for traders. The recent break-out that we correctly anticipated carried Ethereum above the resistance zone that held the currency back all week.
Ethereum on the rise, Daily Chart
- Oil: An industry in turmoil
Oil producing countries and companies are spooked once again by the movements of crude oil, as a 3-month long consolidation concluded with a bearish break-down two weeks ago. As US shale production is on the rise and the OPEC, especially Saudi Arabia, is cornered by the new market pressures, it’s likely that oil will experience violent moves in the coming days.
- Trump: Will there be a healthcare deal?
The media covered the Republican Party’s debate regarding a new healthcare bill that supposed to replace “Obamacare”. The new president was forced to retreat at the end of the week, pulling the bill ahead of a risky vote. It’s hard to imagine that Mr. Trump will not try to reach a deal again in the near future. We expect continued focus on the story, although the real impact of the bill on financial markets is questionable.
In Focus: Cryptocurrencies
The performance of the main cryptocurrencies in March
March has been a very active month for cryptocurrencies so far, and while Bitcoin had a highly volatile and mixed period, some of the other majors gained significant ground. Ethereum and Dash surged higher more or less in tandem, bagging close to 200% in just three weeks. Monero is also on the rise with a commendable 60% gain.
The recent week was Ethereum’s without a doubt, as Dash and Monero remained below their previous highs and Bitcoin plunged back below 1000 on Friday. Litecoin has been the most stable of the major cryptocurrrencies, although the 8% gain could be interpreted as a positive sign, given the weak performance of Bitcoin.
Monthly trading volumes reflect the price action, as Ethereum has experienced a huge jump in interest and Dash also so significant inflows.
|Currency||Weekly Volume||Monthly Volume|
Key Economic Releases of the Week
|Monday||EUROZONE||German Ifo Business Climate||111.2||111|
|Tuesday||US||CB Consumer Confidence||113.9||114.8|
|Wednesday||US||Pending Home Sales (monthly)||2.30%||-2.80%|
|Wednesday||US||Crude Oil Inventories||5.0 million|
|Thursday||US||Initial Jobless Claims (weekly)||244,000||261,000|
|Friday||UK||Current Account||-16.3 bil||-25.5 bil|
|Friday||UK||Final GDP (quarterly)||0.70%||0.70%|
Daily Analysis: Dollar Falls, Gold Jumps after Yellen’s Final Move
Wednesday Market Recap
|Asset||Current Value||Daily Change|
|WTI Crude Oil||56.65||-0.68%|
The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates as expected today, and although the central bank’s monetary statement was slightly more hawkish than expected, the market’s reaction didn’t reflect the much-anticipated move. The worse than expected Core CPI reading that underlined the low-inflation narrative weighed on the recently strong Greenback, while stocks were unchanged after decision and bonds gained ground as yields retreated.
EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
The major indices are hovering near their all-time highs with the DOW leading the way higher, hitting a new record for the second day in a row. While volatility Is expected to remain low as we approach the end of the year, market internals and valuation levels are still concerning from a long-term perspective, and stocks outside the US are also negatively diverging. The action in crude oil could be slightly more interesting as the commodity is starting to act in a slightly bearish manner after a grinding multi-month rally.
WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
The Brexit process is still in the center of attention in Europe, although volatility took a nosedive on the old continent as well, and it’s unlikely that the Christmas period will be much different, given the predictable drop in volumes and trading activity. The date of the next election in the financially and politically troubled Italy has been set to March 4th next year, and the early date caused some turmoil in the countries assets, which dragged the Euro Stoxx 50 lower today, together with the DAX and the other major indices.
As the total market cap of the crypto-market crossed the incredible $500 billion mark, Ripple, NEO, and Ethereum made headlines with lofty gains in the face of the severely overbought readings elsewhere in the segment. While XRP and NEO are still not overbought from an investment perspective, Ethereum reached our final target for its break-out and triggered a long-term sell signal.
ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
The previously surging IOTA continued its correction, Litecoin consolidated in a relatively narrow range, while Dash, ETC, and Monero scored marginal new highs before turning lower together with BTC. The most valuable coin that has lost some of its momentum “mojo” in recent days fell back below last week’s highs, and that could mark a failed break-out and a start of the deeper correction that seems more and more likely.
BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Key Economic Releases on Wednesday
|11:30||UK||Claimant Count Change||5,900||3,300||6,500|
|15:30||US||Crude Oil Inventories||-5.1 mill||-3.6 mill||-5.6 mill|
|21:00||US||Fed Rate Decision||1.5%||1.5%||1.25%|
Featured image from Shutterstock
Technical Analysis: Volatility on the Rise Again, as Ripple and Ethereum Hit Targets
Ripple has been the star of today’s session in the cryptocurrency segment, as the only major coin on a long-term buy signal in our trend model continued yesterday’s break-out, and surged to a new all-time high. The currency cleared the $0.425 level that marked the top in May, and after the more than 6-month long consolidation phase, it promptly neared the $0.50 level.
While the short-term momentum indicators are now stretched, the coin is still in an encouraging long-term setup, although the best period to buy already passed. The coin could be dragged lower in the case of the expected broad correction in the segment, but we expect XRP to outperform in the coming period, with support levels found at the prior high and below that in the range between $0.30-$0.32.
XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Ethereum has been the other top coin on the rise, as the second largest digital currency surged past the final range projection target of the break-out two weeks ago at $685 in the aftermath of the launch of the BTC futures on Monday. The ETH token is now also on a sell signal on all time-frames, and we advise investors and investors to wait for the next major correction to establish new positions. Support levels are now found at $575, $500, $480, and $400.
ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Grinds Higher as Records Tumble in Altcoins
The historical surge in the segment, which is the second such move this year, continued today, with another round of break-outs in some of the major altcoins and tepid gains for BTC investors. Ethereum, Ripple, Dash, and first and foremost Litecoin was leading the charge, with the recent star LTC topping $300, just after a day of hitting the $200 mark.
Litecoin defied all odds after reaching extremely overbought readings, and the coin rode the speculative wave, turning exponential, not unlike IOTA and Bitcoin previously. With the coin being stretched in an unprecedented way on all time-frames, investors could even consider selling their core positions at the current levels, as a deep correction is almost granted in the coming period. The first meaningful support level is found at $125, and a re-test of the $100 level is probable during the next major correction.
LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Ripple finally ended a long period of relative weakness today, and the only major on a long-term by signal jumped over primary resistance at $0.26 and crossed the $0.30-$0.32 too in the euphoric sentiment. As the coin is not long-term overbought following the 6-month long consolidation, the buy signal in XRP remains intact, with the only major resistance level being found at the all-time high near $0.425.
XRPUSDT/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
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