Weekly Analysis: Stocks at Decision Point, Altcoins Still on Fire
|Asset||Current Value||Weekly Change|
|WTI Crude Oil||50.81||5.92%|
5 Things to Watch Next Week
- Will Bitcoin target its all-time high?
The most important cryptocurrency scared bulls last weekend as it spiked lower to $900 before recovering above $1000 during the week. The currency was stable in the last few days, and that might prove to be the calm before the storm. Bulls have the $1300 level in their crosshairs, with still the $880-$900 zone being the “make-or-break” spot for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin, Daily Chart Analysis
- Job’s Friday: Another positive employment report with weak earnings?
As the Fed’s future rate hikes are still in the center of attention, the most awaited monthly economic release could define trading during the week. The Dollar could take the biggest hit in the event of a negative surprise, and US government bonds might also experience heavy trading.
- Trump meets the Chinese President: Flexing of muscles?
The leaders of arguably the two most important economies will meet on Thursday, and investors around the world will anxiously be looking for hints on a possible trade war between the two nations. Trump has been hostile towards the Chinese monetary and international trade policies in his campaign, but he proved flexible in several issues before (like the question of Taiwan). Beware, stocks and currencies could turn volatile!
- New highs ahead for stocks or the correction resumes?
Although several major benchmarks, like the Nasdaq and the DAX marched to new highs in the second half of the week, other indices remained relatively weak. This divergence is usually bad news for markets, although it’s likely that the laggards will heal next week. The first few days could be crucial for stocks, as the indices trade just above important support levels.
- What are the central banks up to?
Last week the words of FED-member Charles Evans had a bigger impact on markets than the Brexit or any of the key economic releases. With that in mind, the meeting minutes of the FOMC and the ECB both have the potential to significantly move markets on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. The ECB sent hawkish signals last time around, while the Fed’s communication was nothing short of a mess, so predicting an outcome is probably seems like a gamble here.
In Focus: Cryptocurrencies
The 7-day performance of the main cryptocurrencies, (% gains)
Cryptocurrencies had a strange but mostly bullish week, as the recent stars of the altcoin market took a backseat, while other currencies such as Ripple and Litecoin had stellar moves. Last week’s winner Ethereum started the week in a bullish fashion, but the rally stalled around the $53 level, and the currency spent the second half of the period in a low-volatility consolidation-pattern. Monero also settled down after three sensational weeks, as it also traded below its recent highs, sticking to the important psychological level at $20. Dash entered a deep correction after the huge surge earlier on in March, falling by more than 30% since last Sunday.
The Cryptocurrency market is buzzing, and volatility is likely to remain the name of the game. Look out for another round of rotation, and a possibly huge move in this week’s stable currencies. Litecoin saw the third largest trading volume last week, thanks to the surge in its price, but it couldn’t get close to the leading duo of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Ripple jumped to the third place in market capitalization as Litecoin took over Monero.
|Currency||Weekly Volume||Market Cap|
Key Economic Releases of the Week
|Monday||AUSTRALIA||Retail Sales (monthly)||0.30%||0.40%|
|Monday||US||ISM Manufacturing PMI||57||57.7|
|Tuesday||AUSTRALIA||RBA Rate Decision||1.50%||1.50%|
|Tuesday||CANADA||Trade Balance||0.7 billion||0.8 billion|
|Tuesday||US||Trade Balance||-46.7 billion||-48.5 billion|
|Tuesday||US||Factory Orders (monthly)||0.90%||1.2%|
|Wednesday||US||ADP Employment Change||225,000||298,000|
|Wednesday||US||ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI||57||57.6|
|Wednesday||US||Crude Oil Inventories||–||0.9 million|
|Wednesday||US||FOMC Meeting Minutes||–||–|
|Thursday||GERMANY||Factory Orders (monthly)||3.50%||-0.80%|
|Thursday||EUROZONE||ECB Meeting Accounts||–||–|
|Thursday||CANADA||Building Permits (monthly)||–||5.40%|
|Thursday||US||Initial Jobless Claims (weekly)||251,000||258,000|