|Asset||Current Value||Weekly Change|
|WTI Crude Oil||50.81||5.92%|
5 Things to Watch Next Week
- Will Bitcoin target its all-time high?
The most important cryptocurrency scared bulls last weekend as it spiked lower to $900 before recovering above $1000 during the week. The currency was stable in the last few days, and that might prove to be the calm before the storm. Bulls have the $1300 level in their crosshairs, with still the $880-$900 zone being the “make-or-break” spot for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin, Daily Chart Analysis
- Job’s Friday: Another positive employment report with weak earnings?
As the Fed’s future rate hikes are still in the center of attention, the most awaited monthly economic release could define trading during the week. The Dollar could take the biggest hit in the event of a negative surprise, and US government bonds might also experience heavy trading.
- Trump meets the Chinese President: Flexing of muscles?
The leaders of arguably the two most important economies will meet on Thursday, and investors around the world will anxiously be looking for hints on a possible trade war between the two nations. Trump has been hostile towards the Chinese monetary and international trade policies in his campaign, but he proved flexible in several issues before (like the question of Taiwan). Beware, stocks and currencies could turn volatile!
- New highs ahead for stocks or the correction resumes?
Although several major benchmarks, like the Nasdaq and the DAX marched to new highs in the second half of the week, other indices remained relatively weak. This divergence is usually bad news for markets, although it’s likely that the laggards will heal next week. The first few days could be crucial for stocks, as the indices trade just above important support levels.
- What are the central banks up to?
Last week the words of FED-member Charles Evans had a bigger impact on markets than the Brexit or any of the key economic releases. With that in mind, the meeting minutes of the FOMC and the ECB both have the potential to significantly move markets on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. The ECB sent hawkish signals last time around, while the Fed’s communication was nothing short of a mess, so predicting an outcome is probably seems like a gamble here.
In Focus: Cryptocurrencies
The 7-day performance of the main cryptocurrencies, (% gains)
Cryptocurrencies had a strange but mostly bullish week, as the recent stars of the altcoin market took a backseat, while other currencies such as Ripple and Litecoin had stellar moves. Last week’s winner Ethereum started the week in a bullish fashion, but the rally stalled around the $53 level, and the currency spent the second half of the period in a low-volatility consolidation-pattern. Monero also settled down after three sensational weeks, as it also traded below its recent highs, sticking to the important psychological level at $20. Dash entered a deep correction after the huge surge earlier on in March, falling by more than 30% since last Sunday.
The Cryptocurrency market is buzzing, and volatility is likely to remain the name of the game. Look out for another round of rotation, and a possibly huge move in this week’s stable currencies. Litecoin saw the third largest trading volume last week, thanks to the surge in its price, but it couldn’t get close to the leading duo of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Ripple jumped to the third place in market capitalization as Litecoin took over Monero.
|Currency||Weekly Volume||Market Cap|
Key Economic Releases of the Week
|Monday||AUSTRALIA||Retail Sales (monthly)||0.30%||0.40%|
|Monday||US||ISM Manufacturing PMI||57||57.7|
|Tuesday||AUSTRALIA||RBA Rate Decision||1.50%||1.50%|
|Tuesday||CANADA||Trade Balance||0.7 billion||0.8 billion|
|Tuesday||US||Trade Balance||-46.7 billion||-48.5 billion|
|Tuesday||US||Factory Orders (monthly)||0.90%||1.2%|
|Wednesday||US||ADP Employment Change||225,000||298,000|
|Wednesday||US||ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI||57||57.6|
|Wednesday||US||Crude Oil Inventories||–||0.9 million|
|Wednesday||US||FOMC Meeting Minutes||–||–|
|Thursday||GERMANY||Factory Orders (monthly)||3.50%||-0.80%|
|Thursday||EUROZONE||ECB Meeting Accounts||–||–|
|Thursday||CANADA||Building Permits (monthly)||–||5.40%|
|Thursday||US||Initial Jobless Claims (weekly)||251,000||258,000|
Daily Analysis: Dollar Falls, Gold Jumps after Yellen’s Final Move
Wednesday Market Recap
|Asset||Current Value||Daily Change|
|WTI Crude Oil||56.65||-0.68%|
The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates as expected today, and although the central bank’s monetary statement was slightly more hawkish than expected, the market’s reaction didn’t reflect the much-anticipated move. The worse than expected Core CPI reading that underlined the low-inflation narrative weighed on the recently strong Greenback, while stocks were unchanged after decision and bonds gained ground as yields retreated.
EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
The major indices are hovering near their all-time highs with the DOW leading the way higher, hitting a new record for the second day in a row. While volatility Is expected to remain low as we approach the end of the year, market internals and valuation levels are still concerning from a long-term perspective, and stocks outside the US are also negatively diverging. The action in crude oil could be slightly more interesting as the commodity is starting to act in a slightly bearish manner after a grinding multi-month rally.
WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
The Brexit process is still in the center of attention in Europe, although volatility took a nosedive on the old continent as well, and it’s unlikely that the Christmas period will be much different, given the predictable drop in volumes and trading activity. The date of the next election in the financially and politically troubled Italy has been set to March 4th next year, and the early date caused some turmoil in the countries assets, which dragged the Euro Stoxx 50 lower today, together with the DAX and the other major indices.
As the total market cap of the crypto-market crossed the incredible $500 billion mark, Ripple, NEO, and Ethereum made headlines with lofty gains in the face of the severely overbought readings elsewhere in the segment. While XRP and NEO are still not overbought from an investment perspective, Ethereum reached our final target for its break-out and triggered a long-term sell signal.
ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
The previously surging IOTA continued its correction, Litecoin consolidated in a relatively narrow range, while Dash, ETC, and Monero scored marginal new highs before turning lower together with BTC. The most valuable coin that has lost some of its momentum “mojo” in recent days fell back below last week’s highs, and that could mark a failed break-out and a start of the deeper correction that seems more and more likely.
BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Key Economic Releases on Wednesday
|11:30||UK||Claimant Count Change||5,900||3,300||6,500|
|15:30||US||Crude Oil Inventories||-5.1 mill||-3.6 mill||-5.6 mill|
|21:00||US||Fed Rate Decision||1.5%||1.5%||1.25%|
Featured image from Shutterstock
Technical Analysis: Volatility on the Rise Again, as Ripple and Ethereum Hit Targets
Ripple has been the star of today’s session in the cryptocurrency segment, as the only major coin on a long-term buy signal in our trend model continued yesterday’s break-out, and surged to a new all-time high. The currency cleared the $0.425 level that marked the top in May, and after the more than 6-month long consolidation phase, it promptly neared the $0.50 level.
While the short-term momentum indicators are now stretched, the coin is still in an encouraging long-term setup, although the best period to buy already passed. The coin could be dragged lower in the case of the expected broad correction in the segment, but we expect XRP to outperform in the coming period, with support levels found at the prior high and below that in the range between $0.30-$0.32.
XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Ethereum has been the other top coin on the rise, as the second largest digital currency surged past the final range projection target of the break-out two weeks ago at $685 in the aftermath of the launch of the BTC futures on Monday. The ETH token is now also on a sell signal on all time-frames, and we advise investors and investors to wait for the next major correction to establish new positions. Support levels are now found at $575, $500, $480, and $400.
ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Grinds Higher as Records Tumble in Altcoins
The historical surge in the segment, which is the second such move this year, continued today, with another round of break-outs in some of the major altcoins and tepid gains for BTC investors. Ethereum, Ripple, Dash, and first and foremost Litecoin was leading the charge, with the recent star LTC topping $300, just after a day of hitting the $200 mark.
Litecoin defied all odds after reaching extremely overbought readings, and the coin rode the speculative wave, turning exponential, not unlike IOTA and Bitcoin previously. With the coin being stretched in an unprecedented way on all time-frames, investors could even consider selling their core positions at the current levels, as a deep correction is almost granted in the coming period. The first meaningful support level is found at $125, and a re-test of the $100 level is probable during the next major correction.
LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Ripple finally ended a long period of relative weakness today, and the only major on a long-term by signal jumped over primary resistance at $0.26 and crossed the $0.30-$0.32 too in the euphoric sentiment. As the coin is not long-term overbought following the 6-month long consolidation, the buy signal in XRP remains intact, with the only major resistance level being found at the all-time high near $0.425.
XRPUSDT/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
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