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Weekly Analysis: Stocks at Decision Point, Altcoins Still on Fire

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Weekly Analysis: Stocks at Decision Point, Altcoins Still on Fire

Introduction

Asset Current Value Weekly Change
S&P 500 2363 0.80%
DAX 12312 2.06%
WTI Crude Oil 50.81 5.92%
GOLD 1247.50 -0.24%
Bitcoin 1075 1.32%
EUR/USD 1.0657 -1.49%

5 Things to Watch Next Week

  1. Will Bitcoin target its all-time high?

The most important cryptocurrency scared bulls last weekend as it spiked lower to $900 before recovering above $1000 during the week. The currency was stable in the last few days, and that might prove to be the calm before the storm. Bulls have the $1300 level in their crosshairs, with still the $880-$900 zone being the “make-or-break” spot for Bitcoin.

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Bitcoin, Daily Chart Analysis

  1. Job’s Friday: Another positive employment report with weak earnings?

As the Fed’s future rate hikes are still in the center of attention, the most awaited monthly economic release could define trading during the week. The Dollar could take the biggest hit in the event of a negative surprise, and US government bonds might also experience heavy trading.

  1. Trump meets the Chinese President: Flexing of muscles?

The leaders of arguably the two most important economies will meet on Thursday, and investors around the world will anxiously be looking for hints on a possible trade war between the two nations. Trump has been hostile towards the Chinese monetary and international trade policies in his campaign, but he proved flexible in several issues before (like the question of Taiwan). Beware, stocks and currencies could turn volatile!

  1. New highs ahead for stocks or the correction resumes?

Although several major benchmarks, like the Nasdaq and the DAX marched to new highs in the second half of the week, other indices remained relatively weak. This divergence is usually bad news for markets, although it’s likely that the laggards will heal next week. The first few days could be crucial for stocks, as the indices trade just above important support levels.

  1. What are the central banks up to?

Last week the words of FED-member Charles Evans had a bigger impact on markets than the Brexit or any of the key economic releases. With that in mind, the meeting minutes of the FOMC and the ECB both have the potential to significantly move markets on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. The ECB sent hawkish signals last time around, while the Fed’s communication was nothing short of a mess, so predicting an outcome is probably seems like a gamble here.

In Focus: Cryptocurrencies


The 7-day performance of the main cryptocurrencies, (% gains)

Cryptocurrencies had a strange but mostly bullish week, as the recent stars of the altcoin market took a backseat, while other currencies such as Ripple and Litecoin had stellar moves. Last week’s winner Ethereum started the week in a bullish fashion, but the rally stalled around the $53 level, and the currency spent the second half of the period in a low-volatility consolidation-pattern. Monero also settled down after three sensational weeks, as it also traded below its recent highs, sticking to the important psychological level at $20. Dash entered a deep correction after the huge surge earlier on in March, falling by more than 30% since last Sunday.

The Cryptocurrency market is buzzing, and volatility is likely to remain the name of the game. Look out for another round of rotation, and a possibly huge move in this week’s stable currencies. Litecoin saw the third largest trading volume last week, thanks to the surge in its price, but it couldn’t get close to the leading duo of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Ripple jumped to the third place in market capitalization as Litecoin took over Monero.

Currency Weekly Volume Market Cap
Bitcoin 2071 17358
Ethereum 691 4625
Ripple 130 817
Dash 165 493
Litecoin 338 341
Monero 47 295

 

Key Economic Releases of the Week

Day Country Release Expected Previous
Monday AUSTRALIA Retail Sales (monthly) 0.30% 0.40%
Monday UK Manufacturing PMI 55.1 54.6
Monday US ISM Manufacturing PMI 57 57.7
Tuesday AUSTRALIA RBA Rate Decision 1.50% 1.50%
Tuesday UK Construction PMI 52.50% 52.50%
Tuesday CANADA Trade Balance 0.7 billion 0.8 billion
Tuesday US Trade Balance -46.7 billion -48.5 billion
Tuesday US Factory Orders (monthly) 0.90% 1.2%
Wednesday UK Services PMI 53.5 53.3
Wednesday US ADP Employment Change 225,000 298,000
Wednesday US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 57 57.6
Wednesday US Crude Oil Inventories 0.9 million
Wednesday US FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday GERMANY Factory Orders (monthly) 3.50% -0.80%
Thursday EUROZONE ECB Meeting Accounts
Thursday CANADA Building Permits (monthly) 5.40%
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims (weekly) 251,000 258,000
Friday CANADA Employment Change 5,700 15,300
Friday CANADA Unemployment Rate 6.70% 6.60%
Friday US Hourly Earnings 0.20% 0.20%
Friday US Employment Change 175,000 235,000
Friday US Unemployment Rate 4.70% 4.70%
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Mate Cser

Mate Cser

Trader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.

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