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Weekly Analysis: Litecoin, France, and North Korea in the Spotlight

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Asset Current Value Weekly Change
S&P 500 2345 0.85%
DAX 12105 -0.50%
WTI Crude Oil 49.61 -8.12%
GOLD 1285.50 -1.14%
Bitcoin 1229 4.19%
EUR/USD 1.0728 1.21%

 

 5 Things to Watch Next Week

  1. How will the market react to the French election?

As the last polls before the first round of the presidential election show a move towards the moderate Macron and Marine Le Pen, stocks are expected to benefit in the beginning of the week, as the run-off between those two candidates is considered a “safe” pairing. That said, the uncertainty regarding the referendum is still high and a surprise surge by Melenchon could still stir sings up.

  1. Which altcoins will make their moves?

Several high-flying cryptocurrencies have been trading in relatively narrow ranges recently, and traders are eagerly waiting for the next major swings in Ethereum, Ripple, and Monero. This week’s star, Ethereum Classic, could also remain active as it’s holding on to its recent gains above the $3 level. Litecoin is already on the rise again, and volatility could jump in the other markets as well next week.

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  1. Will the NASDAQ lead stock markets higher again?

The relative strength of US technology stocks could face a real test next week, as several of the behemoths of the segment will release their quarterly numbers. Microsoft, Google (Alphabet), Amazon, and Intel are all scheduled to report during the week representing more than $1.5 trillion in markets capitalization.

  1. Will economic numbers continue to disappoint?

US, British, and European economic releases have been consistently missing analysts estimates in recent week, with as the so-called economic surprise index hit a new 6-year low. While global markets showed strength, despite the weak numbers, a further deterioration could undermine the foundations of the global “growth-story”.  Investors will pay special attention to the US GDP reading on Friday, the Durable Goods Report on Thursday, the CB Consumer Confidence Index on Tuesday, and first the German IFO Business Climate Index tomorrow.

  1. Will the North Korean situation escalate further?

There were some interesting developments this week that could be hints on a background deal between the China and the US to “fix” the North Korea problem. While a direct conflict might be way too costly for the superpowers, and the status quo is not that bad for China, it’s hard to say what the real intentions of Donald Trump are. We will pay special attention to the country in the coming weeks.

In Focus: Cryptocurrencies

 

Litecoin  breaking out, 4-Hour Chart

Litecoin broke out of its recent consolidation pattern and surged to the $16 level, gaining more than 25% over the course of the weekend, and taking over Dash on the capitalization list. Some projections suggest that LTC could test the $20 level in the coming days. Other Cryptocurrencies are quiet this weekend, as Bitcoin and Ethereum Classic are holding on to their recent gains, while the other altcoins are little changed compared to their weekly averages.

The restructuring of the cryptocurrency market continued this week, as Ethereum Classic and Litecoin moved significantly higher regarding their market capitalization. Bitcoin experienced more active trading as it got closer to its all-time highs, and we expect fireworks to follow if BTC gets close to the $1300 zone. Ethereum’s position is safe for now as the second largest altcoin, but the third place of the podium seems to be up for grabs, with Litecoin being the most likely candidate.

Currency Weekly Volume Monthly Volume Market Cap
Bitcoin 1,629 9,144 19,943
Ethereum 367 2,756 4,401
Ripple 91 831 1,192
Dash 67 576 719
Litecoin 605 2,452 507
Monero 35 200 314
Ethereum Classic 79 251 296

 

Key Economic Releases of the Week

Day Country Release Expected Previous
Monday GERMANY IFO Business Climate 112.3
Monday CANADA Wholesale Sales (monthly) 3.30%
Monday US FOMC’s Kashkari speaks
Tuesday UK Public Sector Borrowing 2.6 billion 1.1 billion
Tuesday US CB Consumer Confidence 123.7 125.6
Tuesday US New Home Sales 590,000 592,000
Wednesday AUSTRALIA CPI (quarterly) 0.60% 0.50%
Wednesday CANADA Core Retail Sales -0.30% 1.70%
Wednesday US Crude Oil Inventories -1 million
Thursday JAPAN Monetary Policy Satement
Thursday EUROZONE Base Interest Rate 0 0
Thursday EUROZONE Monetary Policy Satement
Thursday US Core Durable Goods 0.40% 0.50%
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims (weekly) 241,000 244,000
Thursday US UOM Consumer Sentiment 97.1 96.9
Friday UK Prelim GDP 0.40% 0.60%
Friday GERMANY Retail Sales 0.10% 1.80%
Friday US Advance GDP 1.30% 2.10%
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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bitcoin Flirts with $8000 as Altcoin Bull Persists

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Bitcoin’s swift recovery was the main topic of the week, as the most valuable coin not just regained its steep losses, but hit a marginal new high towards the end of the period. The entire segment is experiencing capital inflows as the total value of the coins climbed above $230 billion for the first time ever after finally leaving the vicinity of the $200 billion mark.

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BTC breached the $8000 level before turning slightly lower on Friday, but despite the severely overbought daily chart, it is still trading near its all-time highs. As the long-term picture still suggests a deeper correction, investors should wait with opening new positions and traders should also control position sizes here. Key support levels are found at $7700, $7000, and $6700, while the recent key break-out level at $5000 still hasn’t been re-tested.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

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Dash is still the most bullish altcoin from a technical standpoint, despite this week’s short-term correction, as the coin is trading above its prior all-time high, and this weekend, it looks ready to test the break-out high near $500. Support levels are still found at $400, $360, and $330, and as the long-term picture is approaching overbought territory, investors should only hold on to their positions here.

DASH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

The other major altcoins are also mostly in bullish setups, with some of them already in the latter stages of this cycle, like Monero and IOTA, but elsewhere in the segment, there are still opportunities for both traders and investors. Let’s see the detailed long-term view.

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Litecoin and NEO Jump as Bitcoin Trades near $8000

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The cryptocurrency segment continued its bullish run, as the total value of the coins climbed above $230 billion for the first time ever, while Bitcoin also posted marginal new highs. The most valuable currency is still overbought regarding the long-term picture, and we continue to expect a deeper correction in the coming period, despite the recent strong rally. Support levels are still found $7700, $7000, and $6700 while the $8000 level is ahead as a major obstacle.

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BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin has been the most active major besides Bitcoin, as it rallied strongly after breaking out above the key $64 resistance and it breached the next target at $75 before heading below $70 again. The coin remains in bullish long- and short-term patterns, and we expect a move above the major resistance zone ahead with the next target found at $82.50.

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Litecoin/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO is showing strength in the second half of the session, while Monero is recovering well from a short-term dip, similarly to IOTA and Ethereum Classic. Ethereum continues to represent stability in the segment, while Ripple failed to build up momentum so far after yesterdays spike higher. With still most of the altcoins being in bullish setups, let’s see the short-term charts.

(more…)

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Analysis

XRP Looking to Make a Significant Rally

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The XRP/USD pair went into a deep correction after hitting 0.29490 a month ago. It nosedived to the major support level of 0.19052. The pair consolidated for a few weeks which gave the market the legs to test resistance at 0.22924.

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Technical indicators show that the pair was ready to breach its immediate resistance, which it did this morning. Now that resistance has broke at 0.22924, it’s time to buy. This successful breakout will take the pair to 0.23997 first and 0.26563 next before hitting the target of 0.26796 which is coincidentally a major resistance level.

Technical indicators hint that the market would most likely be overbought by the time it hits 0.26796. Should it respect the major resistance level, the likelihood of the market turning extremely bearish increases. Therefore, it is recommended to closely watch your trail stops to preserve your gains.  

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Summary of Strategy

Buy: As close to 0.22924

Support: 0.22224 and 0.20081

Target: 0.26796

Stop: If the market breaches 0.20081 as next reliable support is 0.19052

 

Disclaimer: The writer owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

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