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Weekly Altcoin & Bitcoin Analysis: Time to Short Bitcoin?

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Weekly Altcoin & Bitcoin Analysis: Time to Short Bitcoin?

Introduction

This article was posted on Sunday, 10:19, UTC.

It was an exciting week for crypto traders. It seems like there are an ever-increasing number of traders joining the party doesn’t it?  Given that just a year ago there was just a handful of traders compared to now, and we still have not even scratched the surface of the number of traders out there still trading Forex exclusively, the future seems bright indeed.  To do well, all you have to do is make sure you don’t make a mistake that wipes out your trading account and forces you out of the game.  (At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the best way for new traders to lose everything is to use leverage before they are seasoned traders.)

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If you miss a “trade du jour”, my advice is don’t chase it.  I know it sucks to be in a trade and then see a different coin is going through the roof while yours is stuck in the mud. Happened to me this week – I missed the ETH party.  But if you chase a trade after the fact, you are highly likely to buy a high.  There will be another trade tomorrow, and another the day after that, and the next…  If you miss one, try not to get greedy and/or impatient – just catch the next trade.  If you just stay in the game, IMHO, you stand a good chance of doing very well for yourself.  There is a ton of money flowing into the altcoins, and we are still in the very early stages of what might be a bull market they will write about in the history books – IMHO.

Bitcoin

I believe XBT is finally approaching the end of it’s present historic run.  There are 2 arcs, a short-term 3rd, and a long-term 5th, very close by (~ $2100).  I always counsel others, and myself, to never short a bull market.  But I might make an exception in this case, if I am feeling brave enough.  This 12 hour chart is screaming out a major warning to longs.

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DASH

Dash has too little data on kraken for a long term look at the chart.  But the short term chart shows a retracement at the 4th arc.  A little more pullback and a new advance to the 5th arc will like begin. There is a number of reasons to believe that 5/27-5/28 will be a significant energy point for DASH.  It is too soon to tell if it will be a high, low or acceleration.  But mark it on your calendar.

Ethereum

 

Regretfully I missed this rally.  By the time I noticed it, price was too close to the 3rd arc to buy it.  However, my guess is that price will get through the arcs to go to the 5th arcs. Target ~$165. (Last week we identified $130 as a next target.  This rally was stopped at $129).  I see there is an energy point due tomorrow (red vertical line). Maybe that is the time to watch.  I suggest waiting for a close above the 3rd arc, but aggressive traders might risk buying here.

Litecoin

LTC was a bit of a disappointment this week.  We tweeted the low was likely in at $21, and it was.  The subsequent rally to $29 was exhilarating, but that 1st arc pair stopped the party, and then the top of the square provided a ceiling.  Then the money moved to ETH I suppose…  Lets see when/if this coin can get through those arcs…

Ripple

We tweeted that the low was likely in at .28, and indeed that was the low. Since then there was a rally that brought XRP back to the same arc that crashed the party several days ago.  The arc stopped the rally again.  My guess is that it will get through the arc soon and rally again.  My suggestion is to wait for a close above the arcs though. It could fall again here.

Zcash

ZEC closed above the 2nd arc before falling back.  This suggests to me that the arcs are weak and will yield on the next test.  I suggest waiting for confirmation.  However, a rally to the 3rd and/or the 5th arcs is likely in the week ahead.

Monero

XMR rallied hard into the 5th arc of a longer-term setup.  At this writing it is sitting just below the 5th arc. It is too soon to say if this is a double top or not (could be!), so my suggestion is to take profits here, if you are long.

Remember:  The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgment.  Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



Feedback or Requests?

Jim Fredrickson

Jim Fredrickson

Jim has an MBA from the University of Southern California. He has had a long career in both Corporate Finance and IT. Along the way he discovered that trading was a vehicle with great promise, but struggled for a long time without a mentor. After having been knocked down many times and having struggled to get back up, he had an epiphany and realized that geometry was a solution. He shares his experience here. If you do well as a result of suggestions made here, feel free to say thank you :) BTC: 1FUq3GB1Q8zz2JpuBr7YHzVBKnaWoxgmya Follow him on Twitter (@jimfred1276) or email him at jimfred1276 at gmail.

Comments
  • user

    AUTHOR amirheavy666

    Posted on 11:14 am May 21, 2017.

    Dear Jim
    what’s you idea about Stellar Lumens?
    thanks

  • user

    AUTHOR calantheddreyert

    Posted on 11:29 am May 21, 2017.

    hi, i was buy LTC when its 27, do you think it can up to $40
    thanks

  • user

    AUTHOR ridesisapis

    Posted on 11:33 am May 21, 2017.

    Hi Jim, its DASH plotted for Ethereum analysis instead of ETHUSD.

  • user

    AUTHOR mvppvm_07

    Posted on 1:48 pm May 21, 2017.

    Two rookie questions:
    1) Given today’s chart analysis and assuming that one trades in each of the coins charted, do you have an “arc” weighting criterion that you use to adjust the percentage of your trading liquidity to one coin over another?

    2) This presupposes an implied risk value assigned to a “contextual” timeline, I’m sure. How far back is your look-back when assessing arc risk?

    I’m not sure this is a clear set of questions but it’s the only way I can describe my curiosity so far. I’m trying to learn to read what you’re presenting.

    Thanks for your work, by the way

    • user

      AUTHOR Jim Fredrickson

      Posted on 1:27 am May 22, 2017.

      I don’t trade all coins at the same time, and strongly suggest others don’t either. Investing is a different animal. If one wants to invest in all of them for the long haul, that is fine.
      As for which one I trade, it depends on which one I think will out-perform the others. Sometimes I get it right, sometimes I don’t. But when you miss out on a great trade just forget about it, and try to catch the next one. There will always be another great trade coming soon, and you don’t need to catch them all.

  • user

    AUTHOR jkhan123

    Posted on 3:40 pm May 21, 2017.

    Hey, what do you think of Golem? thanks

  • user

    AUTHOR ryepdx

    Posted on 8:49 pm May 21, 2017.

    Seeing the DASH chart again where the ETH chart should be.

    • user

      AUTHOR Jim Fredrickson

      Posted on 1:15 am May 22, 2017.

      Oh my God you are right… I put the wrong heading there. I will try to fix it asap. thank you.

      • user

        AUTHOR Jim Fredrickson

        Posted on 1:28 am May 22, 2017.

        Actually, the heading is correct, just the wrong picture. I have asked the editor to fix that. Thank you…

  • user

    AUTHOR gullyfoyle

    Posted on 9:09 pm May 21, 2017.

    always good to have your own thoughts confirmed by a seasoned trader, thanks Jim

  • user

    AUTHOR jarosatori

    Posted on 11:43 pm May 21, 2017.

    How deep the correction of BTC will be iyho?

  • user

    AUTHOR jixiang2009

    Posted on 10:18 am June 20, 2017.

    学习了

  • View Comments (16) ...
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