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Weekly Altcoin & Bitcoin Analysis: Time to Short Bitcoin?

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It was an exciting week for crypto traders. It seems like there are an ever-increasing number of traders joining the party doesn’t it?  Given that just a year ago there was just a handful of traders compared to now, and we still have not even scratched the surface of the number of traders out there still trading Forex exclusively, the future seems bright indeed.  To do well, all you have to do is make sure you don’t make a mistake that wipes out your trading account and forces you out of the game.  (At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the best way for new traders to lose everything is to use leverage before they are seasoned traders.)

If you miss a “trade du jour”, my advice is don’t chase it.  I know it sucks to be in a trade and then see a different coin is going through the roof while yours is stuck in the mud. Happened to me this week – I missed the ETH party.  But if you chase a trade after the fact, you are highly likely to buy a high.  There will be another trade tomorrow, and another the day after that, and the next…  If you miss one, try not to get greedy and/or impatient – just catch the next trade.  If you just stay in the game, IMHO, you stand a good chance of doing very well for yourself.  There is a ton of money flowing into the altcoins, and we are still in the very early stages of what might be a bull market they will write about in the history books – IMHO.

Bitcoin

I believe XBT is finally approaching the end of it’s present historic run.  There are 2 arcs, a short-term 3rd, and a long-term 5th, very close by (~ $2100).  I always counsel others, and myself, to never short a bull market.  But I might make an exception in this case, if I am feeling brave enough.  This 12 hour chart is screaming out a major warning to longs.

DASH

Dash has too little data on kraken for a long term look at the chart.  But the short term chart shows a retracement at the 4th arc.  A little more pullback and a new advance to the 5th arc will like begin. There is a number of reasons to believe that 5/27-5/28 will be a significant energy point for DASH.  It is too soon to tell if it will be a high, low or acceleration.  But mark it on your calendar.

Ethereum

 

Regretfully I missed this rally.  By the time I noticed it, price was too close to the 3rd arc to buy it.  However, my guess is that price will get through the arcs to go to the 5th arcs. Target ~$165. (Last week we identified $130 as a next target.  This rally was stopped at $129).  I see there is an energy point due tomorrow (red vertical line). Maybe that is the time to watch.  I suggest waiting for a close above the 3rd arc, but aggressive traders might risk buying here.

Litecoin

LTC was a bit of a disappointment this week.  We tweeted the low was likely in at $21, and it was.  The subsequent rally to $29 was exhilarating, but that 1st arc pair stopped the party, and then the top of the square provided a ceiling.  Then the money moved to ETH I suppose…  Lets see when/if this coin can get through those arcs…

Ripple

We tweeted that the low was likely in at .28, and indeed that was the low. Since then there was a rally that brought XRP back to the same arc that crashed the party several days ago.  The arc stopped the rally again.  My guess is that it will get through the arc soon and rally again.  My suggestion is to wait for a close above the arcs though. It could fall again here.

Zcash

ZEC closed above the 2nd arc before falling back.  This suggests to me that the arcs are weak and will yield on the next test.  I suggest waiting for confirmation.  However, a rally to the 3rd and/or the 5th arcs is likely in the week ahead.

Monero

XMR rallied hard into the 5th arc of a longer-term setup.  At this writing it is sitting just below the 5th arc. It is too soon to say if this is a double top or not (could be!), so my suggestion is to take profits here, if you are long.

Remember:  The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgment.  Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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5 stars on average, based on 2 rated postsJim has an MBA from the University of Southern California. He has had a long career in both Corporate Finance and IT. Along the way he discovered that trading was a vehicle with great promise, but struggled for a long time without a mentor. After having been knocked down many times and having struggled to get back up, he had an epiphany and realized that geometry was a solution. He shares his experience here. If you do well as a result of suggestions made here, feel free to say thank you :) BTC: 1FUq3GB1Q8zz2JpuBr7YHzVBKnaWoxgmya Follow him on Twitter (@jimfred1276) or email him at jimfred1276 at gmail.




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16 Comments

16 Comments

  1. amirheavy666

    May 21, 2017 at 11:14 am

    Dear Jim
    what’s you idea about Stellar Lumens?
    thanks

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 22, 2017 at 1:11 am

      I like XLM. I’ve been long XLM for a couple weeks now.

  2. calantheddreyert

    May 21, 2017 at 11:29 am

    hi, i was buy LTC when its 27, do you think it can up to $40
    thanks

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 22, 2017 at 1:12 am

      Yes, but you may need to be patient…

  3. ridesisapis

    May 21, 2017 at 11:33 am

    Hi Jim, its DASH plotted for Ethereum analysis instead of ETHUSD.

  4. mvppvm_07

    May 21, 2017 at 1:48 pm

    Two rookie questions:
    1) Given today’s chart analysis and assuming that one trades in each of the coins charted, do you have an “arc” weighting criterion that you use to adjust the percentage of your trading liquidity to one coin over another?

    2) This presupposes an implied risk value assigned to a “contextual” timeline, I’m sure. How far back is your look-back when assessing arc risk?

    I’m not sure this is a clear set of questions but it’s the only way I can describe my curiosity so far. I’m trying to learn to read what you’re presenting.

    Thanks for your work, by the way

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 22, 2017 at 1:27 am

      I don’t trade all coins at the same time, and strongly suggest others don’t either. Investing is a different animal. If one wants to invest in all of them for the long haul, that is fine.
      As for which one I trade, it depends on which one I think will out-perform the others. Sometimes I get it right, sometimes I don’t. But when you miss out on a great trade just forget about it, and try to catch the next one. There will always be another great trade coming soon, and you don’t need to catch them all.

  5. jkhan123

    May 21, 2017 at 3:40 pm

    Hey, what do you think of Golem? thanks

  6. ryepdx

    May 21, 2017 at 8:49 pm

    Seeing the DASH chart again where the ETH chart should be.

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 22, 2017 at 1:15 am

      Oh my God you are right… I put the wrong heading there. I will try to fix it asap. thank you.

      • Jim Fredrickson

        May 22, 2017 at 1:28 am

        Actually, the heading is correct, just the wrong picture. I have asked the editor to fix that. Thank you…

  7. gullyfoyle

    May 21, 2017 at 9:09 pm

    always good to have your own thoughts confirmed by a seasoned trader, thanks Jim

  8. jarosatori

    May 21, 2017 at 11:43 pm

    How deep the correction of BTC will be iyho?

  9. jixiang2009

    June 20, 2017 at 10:18 am

    学习了

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Analysis

Crypto Update: Market Still in Deadlock

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The choppy, directionless period in the cryptocurrency segment continues, with no meaningful change in the technical setups of the major coins. While the broader trends are still clearly bearish and sellers remain in control of the market, we saw another minor bullish shift in the past 24 hours, with modest gains across the board.

Most of the top coins are trading in the range of the Monday session, which saw the spike triggered by the turmoil in Tether. Stellar is the apparent positive outlier of the past few days, while Dash, Litecoin, and Ethereum have been the weakest so far this week.

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

On a positive note, all of the majors remain above last week’s levels, and especially Bitcoin’s continued stability is encouraging for crypto-bulls here, even as our trend model paints a negative picture of the segment.


BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin avoided a test of the $6275 level despite moving below its recent very narrow trading range yesterday, with still no meaningful bearish or bullish momentum present in the coin’s market. BTC continues to trade below the $6500 level, and its volatility is very low, even after the move below the previously dominant broad triangle consolidation pattern.

Further resistance levels are still ahead near $6750 and $7000, while support levels below $6275 are found near $600, $5850 and between $5000 and $5100.

Altcoins Little Changed as Ethereum Still Glued to $200

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The weekend has been very quiet for altcoins so far, with even the recently active Ripple settling down near the $0.46 level. XRP is around the midpoint of Monday’ s range but the lack of follow-through after the breakout from the triangle consolidation pattern is a negative sign, and the coin remains on a short-term sell signal in our trend model. Strong resistance is still ahead at $0.51, $0.54, $0.57, while support is found near $0.42, $0.375, and $0.35.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum continues to hover around the $200 price level still being in bearish short- and long-term patterns and the relative weakness of the second largest coin remains a huge concern for the whole segment.

With no evidence of meaningful capital inflows to the market, the outlook is neutral at best, and traders and investors should wait for at least a short-term trend change before entering new positions. Strong support is found near $180, $170, and $160, while resistance is ahead near $235 and $260.

EOS/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EOS is also among the relatively weaker coins, and the coin is stuick in a broad Trading range around the $5.35 level since August. Volatility in the coin’s market has been progressively declining, but the vicinity of the bear market low suggests that the long-term downtrend is still intact, especially given the segment-wide trends.

A test of the lows is still more likely than a bullish break-out, with strong support found near $4.50 and key resistance ahead near $6 and $6.5.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 380 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

Cardano Price Analysis: ADA/USDT is Eyeing a Big Move Out of Current Technical Setup

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  • Positive update from IOHK audit of Icarus by Kudelski Security.
  • ADA/USDT is moving within a pennant pattern formation, subject to breakout.

Solid Icarus Audit reported by IOHK

IOHK recently announced in their forum that an audit was conducted by Kudelski Security, which is an independent and third-party security audit firm. The audit conducted demonstrated that the Icarus project implementation for Cardano looks all good and set to go, without any major problems. However, a few changes may need to be executed. IOHK developed the Icarus code as a reference implementation, for Cardano light portfolio.

The important of “independent audits, like this one was stressed by IOHK. Stating “they are critical for identifying security issues in the Icarus wallet, that may not have been identified by internal audits”.

Furthermore, IOHK has elucidated Icarus as an open source code base serving as a reference for the creation of safer and easier mobile wallets for Cardano. They said, “this guarantees our customers and clients the safest portfolio we can offer.”  Given the benefit of an external audit, the developers can resolve any problems identified during its product launch audit.

Positive Updates from Cardano Founder

Cardano’s founder, Charles Hoskinson, was recently commenting on Cardano’s future. He said “We have so many amazing things coming out.”

Mr Hoskinson further added that one of their scientists has flown in from Switzerland. They will be doing a video, which will be the first time they have ever talked about their sharding design that we have for Cardano. Further commenting on other updates, including videos about Shelley and the Rust project.

Technical Review – Daily Chart

ADA/USDT daily chart

ADA/USDT is moving within a triangular pattern or a pennant formation, as seen via the daily time frame. It is narrowing, moving closer to a breakout. Ranging ahead of another drop to the deep south. Although, fundamental developments coming out from the Cardano foundation, remain very much upbeat currently.

Over the past 8 days, the price has been grinding higher, after receiving support at the lower trend line of the above-mentioned pattern. In terms of resistance to the upside, this can be seen at 0.08310000. The upper tracking trend line. Further north, a supply zone is running from 0.09000000-0.09500000. ADA/USDT  last traded here on 23rd September. Finally, support is tracking at 0.071800000, lower part of the pennant, also within a demand area. Another strong buying territory is observed from 0.06500000-0.06000000.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 33 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Top 10 Worst Performers Make Bottom Picking List

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Yesterday, October 18, 2018, Cryptoglobe published, a list of the 10 worst performing cryptocurrency investments of 2018. These altcoins suffered heavy losses of between 97% – 99%. With tremendous devaluation, it may lead you to think that altcoins or cryptos are dead. After all, other assets such as stocks or commodities may likely never come back to life after losing all but one percent of their value.

But this is crypto where coins nosedive one day and skyrocket the next. Cryptoglobe can show you a picture of tragedy, but us; we see opportunity. In this two-part article, we reveal how the top 10 worst performing cryptocurrency investments can make a good bottom picking list.

Zclassic (ZCL/BTC)

% Down from All-time High:

99%

Current Status:

Zclassic/Bitcoin (ZCL/BTC) is currently finding footing at its historic support level of 0.0005. In the last four weeks, the pair has been range trading between 0.0005 and 0.000074.

Bottom Picking Candidate?

An altcoin that’s down 99% is a great bottom picking candidate. Aside from the possibility of a technical bounce, you can expect whales and expert bottom fishers to accumulate positions at this level. So, you can either trade the range or accumulate with the best of them.

Weekly chart of ZCL/BTC

Game Credits (GAME/BTC)

% Down from All-time High:

98%

Current Status:

GAME/BTC is attempting to carve a bottom at the parabolic support of 0.000025. Over the last four weeks, the pair has been trading between 0.000025 and 0.0000346.

Bottom Picking Candidate?

Yes, GAME/BTC has the potential to generate a strong rally in the coming weeks. Volume spikes on September 23 and October 4 hint that someone is accumulating at these levels. More importantly, the market is flashing oversold readings on the weekly RSI. GAME/BTC has the essential ingredients of a powerful bounce.

Weekly chart of GAME/BTC

Bitcoin Diamond (BCD/BTC)

% Down from All-time High:

97%

Current Status:

BCD/BTC is currently trading inside a huge falling wedge on the daily chart. It is still bearish as it continues to generate lower highs and lower lows.

Bottom Picking Candidate?

No, BCD/BTC is not a great bottom picking candidate. However, the pair looks ripe for a breakout. The usual catalysts are present: flashing extreme oversold readings, nearing the apex of the wedge, and trading at all-time lows. Look for volume spikes as a sign of a breakout.

Daily chart of BCD/BTC

Ethos (BQX/BTC)

% Down from All-time High:

97%

Current Status:

BQX/BTC has been carving a bottom at 0.000045 for over a month now. Those who were able to buy at this level are lucky because BQX/BTC is looking ripe for a rally.

Bottom Picking Candidate?

Yes, if you can still manage to get as close to 0.000045 as possible. The volume surges in the last few days suggest that the pair is in the final stages of base building. On October 14, BQX/BTC printed volume that’s over 250% of its daily average.

Daily chart of BQX/BTC

SALT (SALT/BTC)

% Down from All-time High:

97%

Current Status:

SALT/BTC may already be in an uptrend but it seems that only a few people are looking. The 4-hour chart shows that the pair is currently generating a bullish higher low after pulling back from its first higher high in months. SALT/BTC looks bullish in our book.

Bottom Picking Candidate?

Yes, this pullback gives you an opportunity to buy the higher low. We expect SALT/BTC to trade near the support of the ascending channel as it consolidates.

4H chart of SALT/BTC

Bottom Line

In trading and investing, the worst performing cryptocurrency investments and other assets often provide the maximum financial opportunity. We’re seeing that in the first half of the list. We have a feeling that we’ll see more or less the same in the second half of the list. Stay tuned.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.7 stars on average, based on 252 rated postsKiril is a financial professional with 4+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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