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Wall Street Analyst Cautions Against Buying Bitcoin Right Now

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A prominent Wall Street analyst covering the cryptocurrency market has cautioned traders to avoid bitcoin for the time being, arguing that the fundamentals do not support continued growth for the digital asset.

Bitcoin: A Waiting Game

In a recent interview with CNBC’s Trading Nation, Nick Colas of DataTrek Research argues that lackluster fundamentals offer little hope for a sustained recovery in bitcoin prices over the intermediate term.

“It has come down quite a long way, and we’re getting a lot of people asking is now the right time to buy,” Colas said. “The short answer is no.”

Colas called bitcoin the “FANG stock of the crypto world,” a clear reference to the most widely traded technology stocks Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet’s Google.

Though Colas is urging caution, he isn’t necessarily bearish on bitcoin. Rather, he maintains that the record-setting rally of December was “absolutely a bubble based around the futures launch.” In the intermediate term, there’s not much evidence that bitcoin has a lot of first-time buyers who are keen to enter the market.

“Like any new technology, you need new adopters to come in to make it more valuable.” he said. “Then, we have a solid trek higher. Then, interest will reengage.”

In his view, the so-called “HODLers” will have their work cut out for them, as the waiting game for interest to reemerge could be three-to-five years.

Competing Views

Colas’ view runs contrary to several prominent analysts who expect bitcoin to reach new record highs this year.

Fund manager Thomas Lass has offered compelling cases for holding bitcoin, including an analysis of price trends using Metcalfe’s Law. Then there’s the obvious reason: the vast majority of bitcoin’s gains in any given year occur over a handful of days.

Billionaire venture capital investor Tim Draper has set a price target of $250,000 per bitcoin by 2022. Though difficult to imagine now, Draper was the one who called for $10,000 bitcoin in 2017 – a forecast he made all the way back in 2015.

Even if you don’t think bitcoin will rally past record levels this year, it’s reasonable to believe prices have already bottomed, according to Dan Morehead of Pantera Capital. In Morehead’s view, the bear cycle has come to an end and bitcoin’s darkest days may have already passed.

Proponents of bitcoin’s bullish ascent have placed price targets of between $20,000 and $25,000 by year’s end. In their view, BTC is an excellent store of value that exhibits unique price independence as an non-correlated asset. Non-correlation works in favor of bitcoin as appetite for risk-on assets like stocks continues to decline.

Bitcoin prices declined on Sunday, failing to extend  a bullish rally north of $10,000. At the time of writing, the digital currency was valued at $9,562 for a market cap of $162.8 billion. While bitcoin continues to be the biggest influencer of overall market trends, its impact has steadily declined amid the latest bullish reversal. According to CoinMarketCap, alternative cryptocurrencies now represent nearly 64% of the market.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 649 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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Bitcoin

Bitcoin Price Resumes Narrow Trading Pattern as Bulls Struggle for Momentum

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Bitcoin was back on the defensive Monday, as prices approached a key psychological support following a series of failed rallies last week. The leading digital currency by market capitalization is caught in a low-volatility, low-volume trading pattern that could keep prices firmly contained for the foreseeable future.

BTC/USD Update

The bitcoin price reached a low of $6,410 on Monday, according to CCN, before rebounding modestly later in the session. At the time of writing, BTC was down 1% at $6,473, according to CoinMarketCap. Prices reached a high of around $6,552 over the weekend.

Bitcoin continues to trade at a premium on Bitfinex, with the digital currency now offered at $6,587.

At current values, BTC is capitalized at $112.3 billion for a 53.7% share of the overall market. The combined value of all digital assets in circulation hovered near $209 billion at the start of Monday. Trade volumes across all cryptoassets reached $10.8 billion.

Low Volume, Low Volatility

Bitcoin’s price action has narrowed significantly over the course of the year, as the introduction of futures trading helped markets stabilize following an adrenaline-filled 2018. Although BTC continues to trade at roughly a third of its all-time high, it has carved out a firm price floor and has exhibited much lower volatility than in previous years.

The sharp decline in volatility can be highlighted by the bitcoin volatility index, which tracks daily fluctuations in BTC’s open price. Over the past 30 days, bitcoin’s volatility index has averaged 1.81%, according to Bitvol.info. This number represents the extent of BTC’s average fluctuation over that period.

Of course, the sharp drop in volatility isn’t all positive news, especially for day traders and speculators of virtual currency. For bitcoin, declining volatility also means a sharp drop off in daily trading volumes.

Daily turnover in BTC approached yearly lows on Sunday, hitting a low of around $3.1 billion, according to CoinMarketCap. For sustained rallies in bitcoin to occur, trade volumes of at least $4 billion are generally observed.

A lack of clarity on the direction of bitcoin and the broader market will likely keep price action limited over the short term. However, as we’ve observed repeatedly this year, prolonged periods of narrow trading ranges are often followed by sharp pullbacks in the market. This was observed earlier this month before a sudden selloff of Tether (USDT) propelled bitcoin sharply higher.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 649 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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Altcoins

Minor Bounce Lifts Crypto Market Cap Above $211 Billion; Tether Circulation Plummets

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Crypto prices traded modestly higher on Sunday, as bitcoin regained its footing above $6,500 and major altcoins avoided further losses.

Market Update

The cryptocurrency market capitalization on Sunday peaked at $212 billion, the highest in five days. At the time of writing, the market was valued at $211.5 billion.

Most assets ranked in the top-20 had reported minor gains over the last 24 hours, a period marked by lower trade volumes. The bitcoin price has returned above $6,500 on trade volumes of just $3.2 billion. The leading digital currency continues to trade at a premium on Bitfinex.

Meanwhile, Ethereum rose half a percent to $206. XRP also climbed 0.5% to $0.459. Bitcoin cash was last seen trading above $449 for a gain of 1.6%.

Stellar XLM was the only top-ten coin not to report gains at the time of writing. However, the no. 6 coin by market cap has returned more than 13% over the past week, far outpacing the broader market.

Trade volumes have declined steadily over the past week, as markets re-balanced following a sudden spike on Oct. 15. Digital exchange volumes have fallen to $9.7 billion on Sunday, according to CoinMarketCap.

Tether Market Cap Plunges

Since the start of October, Tether has pulled more than $600 million worth of USDT out of circulation, leading to a sharp drop in the stablecoin’s market cap. Cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex, which is run by the same executive in charge of Tether Limited, appears to be leading in the offload of USDT tokens. As CCN recently reported, Bitfinex has initiated six transfers of USDT funds to the Tether Treasury this month. The latest transfer was initiated on Wednesday when Bitfinex sent 50 million USDT to the Treasury.

Most of the outflows from Bitfinex occurred long before USDT lost its peg to the dollar in a single-day crash on Oct. 15. USDT briefly fell below $0.90 that day before quickly recovering around $0.94. Currently, one USDT is equivalent to $0.984 U.S., according to CoinMarketCap. Some exchanges are quoting USDT as low as $0.96 on Sunday.

The sudden decline in Tether’s circulation comes at a time when the company is facing heightened scrutiny over its dollar-backed reserves. An influx of alternative stablecoins offering greater transparency and regulatory oversight may also be undercutting demand for USDT.

Case in point: the Gemini Exchange’s GUSD stablecoin reached a high of $1.19 on Tuesday before settling around parity against the dollar. Unlike USDT, the Gemini Dollar has obtained regulatory approval from the New York Department of Financial Services. On the opposite side of the spectrum, Tether has been subpoenaed by federal regulators over its connection with Bitfinex and failure to prove its dollar reserves.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 649 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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Bitcoin

Volatility Ahead For Bitcoin Price as Global Trade Volumes Drop Sharply

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The global cryptocurrency trade volume took a sharp dip on Saturday evening, falling by half a billion in just five hours. The fall from $10.5 billion to $10 billion pushes the global total closer to yearly lows, and could be a sign that volatility is just around the corner – be it for good or bad.

Falling Trade Volumes

The decline in trade volumes hadn’t made itself felt in the global market cap at the time of writing, as Bitcoin and the majority of altcoins continue to trade sideways.

But for how much longer? Every time global volumes have dipped to the $9 billion mark in the last few months, it has been accompanied by either a tremendous market surge, or terrible market dip.

When a market loses trade volume, it becomes very easy to manipulate. This can be seen most easily among various altcoins in the lower ends of the market cap rankings every day.

As for Bitcoin, its own trade volumes dropped from $3.7 billion to $3.4 billion. The last time any real volatility hit BTC was when trade volumes dropped below the $3 billion mark. That applies to Monday’s Tether-induced spike; it applies to the 40% spike seen in July of this year, and it also applies to the 15% flash dip that struck in mid June.

BTC/USD

In the previous twenty-four period leading up to Saturday evening, BTC continued to trade in a remarkably tight range. Opening the day at $6,400 and closing the same twenty-four period at $6,400 has been the case for almost a month and a half now.

The occasional rise to $6,700 and dip to $6,200 means BTC has traded within a $500 range for the last fifty or so days, and marks one of the least volatile periods in Bitcoin’s history.

The same can be said for most of the major altcoins, except those which had major breakouts based on promising news and developments. As of Saturday evening (UTC), every coin the market cap top twenty except two recorded less than a 1% swing either way for the day.

Only Zcash (ZEC), which is hotly anticipating the enactment of its upcoming Sapling hardfork, and IOTA (MIOTA) – which is making headlines for its supposedly imminent move into Venezuela, have recorded clear gains of any kind.

As it stands, BTC appears to have found a fairly reliable level near the $6,000 range – which it hasn’t fallen below since October of 2017, almost a year ago exactly. At the current price, BTC could afford to take another 5% flash dip and still be holding strong near $6,000, although the subsequent hit on the altcoin market would be more severe.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 82 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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