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Urgent Analysis: Bitcoin is at a Double Top + Ripple & Monero

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Urgent update:

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XBTUSD

I have just seen at least one setup on a 4 hour chart that suggests that XBT (bitcoin) is at a place in pricetime that suggest it may be at a turning point:

As you can see, there is

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  • a double top
  • an energy point
  • and a 3rd arc

all happening at this point in time. Individually, each of these is cause for concern. Taken together it is a huge red flag. Be very careful if you are long XBT.

XRPXBT

This market is showing signs of support. A bear setup shows pricetime hitting a 3rd arc. A possible rally in this chart could be due to either XRP rallying, XBT falling, or both.

XRPUSD

To unintentionally muddy the waters a bit, that last chart of XRPXBT might be misleading. It is presented above as potentially corroborating the bearish case for XBT. However, there is compelling reason to believe that XRP may be getting ready to rally. Here you can see that a 5th arc has been reached. While this is a bull setup, it is nevertheless indicating that a change in trend is likely.

Monero

Monero is also getting close to a 5th arc on a bear setup. Actually, my intuition suggests that this setup is too small, but it is a valid setup, so it should not be ignored out of hand. The 5th arc is there. It may take another day or two for pricetime to get there, but it is worth watching this coin closely.

 

Remember: The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgment. Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.

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12 Comments

12 Comments

  1. Ershad

    April 26, 2017 at 2:32 pm

    Hi Jim,

    Suppose that XRP was going to rally, can you suggest a price to cash out on? Is al time high prices likely to be reached ?

    Kind regards
    Ershad

    • Jim Fredrickson

      April 26, 2017 at 11:16 pm

      That’s a bit like asking how high is high… It depends on so many factors, including your timeframe. Are you a weekly trader, or a 5 minute trader? Are you leveraged or not? Do you need cash this month to pay for your kid’s education? I don’t know any of these things, so I can’t say. However, I can say that I think 0.21 per coin is possible this summer…

      • [email protected]

        April 27, 2017 at 8:38 am

        Hello Jim,

        XRP is currently 0.035 USD/XRP on Poloniex. You are expecting 0.21USD/XRP in summer? Almost 7 fold rise?

        • Jim Fredrickson

          April 27, 2017 at 10:57 am

          I wouldn’t say i ‘expect’ it. I said it is possible, given the chart geometry. However, having said that, such a rise would not surprise me.
          But my attention is on ethereum today 🙂

  2. jedadoo

    April 26, 2017 at 4:03 pm

    Well. I sold every bitcoin I have. Gonna try it on ethereum for the short term. Bitcoin keeps rising though…

    • Jim Fredrickson

      April 26, 2017 at 11:22 pm

      I sold mine also. Will it rise anyways, despite the red flags? Perhaps. As of this writing prices stumbled at that place for a few bars, but has risen a bit since then. If it rises further will I have seller’s remorse (wish I had not sold)? Maybe. But imho, speaking for myself, I would much rather miss out on a small piece of a rally than expose myself to a large loss by ignoring such a red flag as was there yesterday.
      Apart from selling, another strategy would have been to keep the coins, but pull the stop loss in tighter. Opinions differ as to which is a better strategy. We never catch every rally. But we don’t need to catch them all…

  3. And

    April 26, 2017 at 8:17 pm

    In the meantime I will also try with ETH. Thanks Jim!

    • Jim Fredrickson

      April 26, 2017 at 11:24 pm

      ETH did well the past few days. My target is $60-62

      • jedadoo

        April 26, 2017 at 11:26 pm

        I’ve been holding ETH per your recommendation for the past few weeks. The % gained is far better in ETH than it would have been in bitcoin, so glad I saw your post early this morning.

  4. jedadoo

    April 28, 2017 at 3:02 am

    Jim, Eth blew past $62, but realized I have no plan to sell it. What do you recommend? I figured ETH will rise into the $100’s eventually so planned to hold long. Any thoughts on a turning point?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      April 28, 2017 at 4:50 am

      Yes, hitting my target so quickly was a wonderful surprise. I agree that $100+ is in the cards. It’s a good plan to hold them. Next are of congestion is in the $75 range.

  5. And

    April 28, 2017 at 7:39 am

    Thanks for update Jim 😉

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Analysis

Cryptocurrency Analysis: Ripple Continues Rampage as Litecoin and Ethereum Enter Correction

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Ripple remained in the center of attention in the segment after breaking out to a new all-time high yesterday, and the coin almost doubled in value, climbing above the $0.80 level. The currency concluded a 6-month long consolidation pattern with the move after being the only major on a long-term buy signal in our trend model.

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XRP gave a short-term sell signal today, while turning neutral regarding the long-term setup. Investors now shouldn’t add to their positions, although further gains are still possible, and reducing holdings somewhat is a good idea here. Major support is still found at the prior high near $0.4250 and in the $0.30-$0.32 range.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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While Bitcoin stagnated, and Bitcoin Cash jumped, Ethereum, Litecoin, Dash, and IOTA has been drifting slightly lower, although the recent gains are still mostly intact, and the basic setup in the segment is unchanged.

Litecoin fell below the $300 level after yesterday’s consolidation, and the coin faced strong selling pressure in the latter half of the session. The currency remains extremely stretched regarding the long-term momentum indicators, and although the short-term uptrend is still intact, a deeper correction is likely in the coming weeks, with key support levels found at $125 and $100, and weaker levels at $260 and $170.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Dollar Falls, Gold Jumps after Yellen’s Final Move

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Wednesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2668 -0.02%
DAX 13125 -0.45%
WTI Crude Oil 56.65 -0.68%
GOLD 1258.00 1.35%
Bitcoin 16,100 -6.32%
EUR/USD 1.1842 0.73%

The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates as expected today, and although the central bank’s monetary statement was slightly more hawkish than expected, the market’s reaction didn’t reflect the much-anticipated move. The worse than expected Core CPI reading that underlined the low-inflation narrative weighed on the recently strong Greenback, while stocks were unchanged after decision and bonds gained ground as yields retreated.

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EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The major indices are hovering near their all-time highs with the DOW leading the way higher, hitting a new record for the second day in a row. While volatility Is expected to remain low as we approach the end of the year, market internals and valuation levels are still concerning from a long-term perspective, and stocks outside the US are also negatively diverging. The action in crude oil could be slightly more interesting as the commodity is starting to act in a slightly bearish manner after a grinding multi-month rally.

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WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Brexit process is still in the center of attention in Europe, although volatility took a nosedive on the old continent as well, and it’s unlikely that the Christmas period will be much different, given the predictable drop in volumes and trading activity. The date of the next election in the financially and politically troubled Italy has been set to March 4th next year, and the early date caused some turmoil in the countries assets, which dragged the Euro Stoxx 50 lower today, together with the DAX and the other major indices.

Cryptocurrencies

As the total market cap of the crypto-market crossed the incredible $500 billion mark, Ripple, NEO, and Ethereum made headlines with lofty gains in the face of the severely overbought readings elsewhere in the segment. While XRP and NEO are still not overbought from an investment perspective, Ethereum reached our final target for its break-out and triggered a long-term sell signal.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The previously surging IOTA continued its correction, Litecoin consolidated in a relatively narrow range, while Dash, ETC, and Monero scored marginal new highs before turning lower together with BTC. The most valuable coin that has lost some of its momentum “mojo” in recent days fell back below last week’s highs, and that could mark a failed break-out and a start of the deeper correction that seems more and more likely.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Wednesday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
11:30 UK Average Earnings 2.5% 2.5% 2.3%
11:30 UK Claimant Count Change 5,900 3,300 6,500
11:30 UK Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.2% 4.35
15:30 US Core CPI 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -5.1 mill -3.6 mill -5.6 mill
21:00 US Fed Rate Decision 1.5% 1.5% 1.25%
21:00 US FOMC Statement

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Volatility on the Rise Again, as Ripple and Ethereum Hit Targets

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Ripple has been the star of today’s session in the cryptocurrency segment, as the only major coin on a long-term buy signal in our trend model continued yesterday’s break-out, and surged to a new all-time high. The currency cleared the $0.425 level that marked the top in May, and after the more than 6-month long consolidation phase, it promptly neared the $0.50 level.

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While the short-term momentum indicators are now stretched, the coin is still in an encouraging long-term setup, although the best period to buy already passed. The coin could be dragged lower in the case of the expected broad correction in the segment, but we expect XRP to outperform in the coming period, with support levels found at the prior high and below that in the range between $0.30-$0.32.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Ethereum has been the other top coin on the rise, as the second largest digital currency surged past the final range projection target of the break-out two weeks ago at $685 in the aftermath of the launch of the BTC futures on Monday. The ETH token is now also on a sell signal on all time-frames, and we advise investors and investors to wait for the next major correction to establish new positions. Support levels are now found at $575, $500, $480, and $400.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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