Trading the News in Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrency trading shares many similarities with both forex and stock trading. All of these assets can be traded with a range of different trading strategies, using technical analysis, quantitative analysis, and fundamental analysis. In this article, we will focus on fundamental analysis and how you can succeed with cryptocurrency trading by trading the news.
In the stock market, we all know how news can impact stock prices. This is especially true for penny stocks, where one corporate announcement can make a huge impact on the price. The same goes for forex, which is largely driven by fundamentals in the long terms and technicals in the shorter term.
Cryptocurrencies are ideal for news trading
One can argue that the cryptocurrency space is better suited for news trading than the stock or forex market is. The main reason for this is the lack of institutional traders, including high-frequency traders, in the crypto space. This is a space that is still dominated by retail traders, meaning you stand a much better chance at profiting from news releases by reacting in a quick and smart way.
So, what are some important things we need to consider when trading the news?
- Is the news fresh? You need to evaluate whether the news is actually news or if it is already priced in by the market. Look at how the price moved ahead of the news release? Did the news just confirm an outcome that was already expected by the market, or did it bring new information to the table?
- Is the news of importance to the price of the cryptocurrency? Is it likely to impact the price over the long-term or is it a one-time boost?
- Is the coin liquid enough to be traded profitably in the short term? How many people are actually following this coin and related news?
Let’s take a look at how this can play out in a real-world scenario:
Phase 1 – The first leg: The news has just been released and the first reaction in the price is already seen. This is your first opportunity to take a position in the market to profit from. If momentum and liquidity is good, you can take your first position here.
Phase 2 – New buyers are joining the party: After the initial euphoria has settled, you will often experience a move in the opposite direction. This is expected, and happens because all the traders who were ready to buy right away already got their orders filled at this point. The market now needs new buyers to join in in order to continue to rise. And more often than not, that is exactly what happens. As the word of the positive news in your crypto asset spreads, more and more traders are joining in, extending the upward move in the price.
Phase 3: The swing trade opportunity: Medium to longer-term traders are now eyeing the opportunity to make money from this asset that is “in play,” instead of the boring stuff they are currently holding on to that is not making them any money. This type of trader is looking for longer-term opportunities in coins that are trending. Once an uptrend has formed, they look to enter as early as possible and ride the trend up.
How long should you hold the trade?
The trend will persist as long as new traders are jumping on this opportunity. Usually, trends act as self-fulfilling prophecies in the way that the longer the trend has lasted, the more people will hear about it and join in on it. When we finally reach a point where the sellers outnumber the new buyers, the trend ends and the cycle may repeat itself in the opposite direction.
One way to develop an estimate of how long the trend is going to last and setting a target price is by using Fibonacci extensions. You can also study previous trends in the asset and see if you can spot any pattern. In all asset classes, crypto included, trends move in waves that tend to repeat themselves.
Personally I prefer to hold on to the trade until the market has given a clear indication that the trend has ended. Usually, I will let this come in the form of price breaking through one of the moving averages, for example the 20 day moving average when trading on the daily timeframe. That way, I don’t have to second-guess when I should get out of the trade, and I also never change this rule once the trade is entered into. It’s not so important what strategy you choose for getting out of the trade, but it is very important that you do have a pre-determined plan for getting out and actually follow through with it.
These strategies work just as well for crypto trading as they do in the stock and forex markets. As the legendary trader Jesse Livermore said more than a hundred years ago:
“The pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes.”
Featured image from Pixabay.