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Trading 101

Trading 101: 10 Essential Investment Rules For Rookies

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As you saw in our Trading vs. Investing article, in several ways, value investing is the polar opposite of trading. That said, in other regards, the two different approaches are very close to each other. Following your investment rules with discipline, for example, is as important in investing as it is in trading. In short, objectivity, patience, dealing with emotions, and other “soft” skills are very important for both methods. The actual rules and best practices to follow, on the other hand, are usually unique for trading and investing.

Also read: 10 Essential Trading Rules for Rookies

As with trading, there are rules that are more important for beginners than they are later on in an investor’s career. In several ways, staying in the game is more important than your initial results, as with experience you will naturally evolve, find your comfort zone, and be able to focus on your edge. The following rules are addressing the most basic mistakes that rookies commit, while also focusing on the cornerstones of investing that will jump-start your career and boost your returns.

Let’s jump straight into it.

Good investing is simple, don’t complicate your analysis

This is probably the most important rule that should be taught on financial courses before anything else. Keep it simple! Buy great assets for a fair price. That sentence is the key to investing. Sophisticated models are often just tools for justifying a “gut” decision, or worse, convincing yourself that your initial decision was wrong. Don’t fall into that trap!

Think about it, what makes a great company for example? It has an edge over its competitors, has a solid and growing market where it sells its products, and has a history if innovation and flexibility. These simple rules are almost always enough to find investment candidates, and if the valuation is also favorable, you will have the margin of safety to act upon your analysis without taking on unnecessary risks.

Valuation matters in the long-run but it’s not a timing tool

One of the common mistakes of newbie investors, including your humble author himself, is that you will be looking for “the Holy Grail” measure that will help you decide whether or not a company or stock or a market is overvalued, undervalued, or fairly valued. The truth is that there are several measures that come close enough, but investing is far from being a valuation-only game.

This is especially true if you try to base your timing decisions on valuations. As Keynes once said, markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. The emphasis on timing is crucial, as valuation should be incorporated into your analysis, but don’t expect the market to turn higher just because the asset got undervalued, or crash because it’s overvalued. As an investor, you have to accept that even long-term price trends might be products of mass psychology, economic trends, government intervention, and so on. On the long run valuation drives returns, but short-term it says nothing about the direction of the market.

Start investing in businesses that you know

The competitive edge, the stable and growing market, and the history of good decisions seem like very easy filters for companies, but they are only easy if you know the business that you are dealing with. Otherwise, you might be basing your decisions on false assumptions.  Of course, this goes for all other forms of investments, from farming to antiques.

If the most successful investors stick to a few industries that they are familiar with, why would a beginner venture into unknown territories? Using your knowledge and interests can give you the edge in the beginning of your career.

Markets show the value of the last trade, not the “real” value of assets

Maybe the biggest fallacy, which is common even among financial professionals, is that they treat the price of an asset as the one and only truth out there, without thinking about the mechanics of markets.  That puts the “valuation” of assets into totally unrealistic heights near the top of bull markets and to insanely cheap levels at the bottom of bear markets.

For an individual investor these are great opportunities, but remember, on average investors will never be able to realize those prices. Why? Because if every owner of the given stock appeared on the market to buy or sell, the realized price would be way lower or higher than the quote that you see on your screen.

The tide of a bull market lifts all “ships” but a bear market hurts even the best companies

One of the most important lessons for an investor comes from the fundamental change in risk appetite between rising and falling markets. Bull markets tend to be long and a lot of times boring affairs for an investor, as valuations get richer and richer across the board, quietly reaching levels where it will be very hard to pick bargains. On the flipside, your holdings will deliver great returns, with relatively low volatility, a lot of times much more than you’d ever expected. Value these times and be patient until you notice the signs of change.

On the other hand, you have to know that when markets tank, even the best companies can suffer great losses. Sentiment turns bleak, and panicked investors run for the exits, often pushing valuations way below any reasonable level. If you are confident in your decisions you will hold on to your investments and even add to your holdings rather than dumping them on the market.

Be greedy when others are in panic and cautious in times of euphoria

Another rule that is attributed to Warren Buffett, but if you understand the previous rules it’s just a small logical step. That said, this small step is often the hardest, on market bottoms, everything looks gloomy, everyone thinks the world will end, and even as your analysis shows bargains all over the place, you will most likely hesitate to “pull the trigger”.

Conversely, near tops you will have plenty of excuses to ignore the warnings signs that pop up, as the economy will be great, investors will be piling into risk assets, and prices will seemingly keep on rising forever. Still, these times should be used to gradually lower your exposure to prepare for the inevitable sobering.

This time it’s not different

Panics and bubbles almost always give way to extreme opinions and baseless speculation, with a “new era of investments” or a “plateau of high valuations” on one side and “the collapse of the financial system” or the “end of the economy as we know it” on the other side. These theories help in justifying the irrational nature of markets, while also feeding the excess sentiment, but don’t be fooled, 99% of the times they will have nothing to do with the reality. Base your decisions on your analysis and common sense, rather than wild predictions and unfounded projections.

Successful investing is about patience, excitement shouldn’t be your goal

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If you are having lots of fun while investing you might be doing something wrong; too much exposure, leverage, too concentrated bets could all give you thrills, but usually at the cost of way too high risk. Most of the times, a good purchase is in segments that are totally forgotten, and considered “boring”. Think about it, what are the chances that you will find deeply undervalued assets in a hyped market?

Also, exciting market moves are characteristics of a bubble, and although bubbles are great to ride all the way up, a disciplined investor will likely exit them a bit early. But that’s not a bad thing, bubbles are only easy to trade in hindsight, and although you won’t sell at the exact top, that last 10% won’t make a huge difference if you have been participating in the trend since the start.

Patiently waiting for great opportunities and sitting out boring advances are crucial and underrated skills—work on them.

Sometimes doing nothing is the optimal strategy

This rule is closely related to the previous one, but it’s crucial to understand, especially in today’s environment, that most of the times investors don’t have to be active. The media, sell-side analysts, and your broker are all there to tell you otherwise and encourage you to trade. This often leads to investors mixing trading with value investing and losing perspective.

While it’s common to think that the next big turning point is close, and someone out there is just nailing it, the reality is that trends will usually go on much longer than anyone expects. If you are waiting for a boom or crash every month, then you should revise your expectations, even if once you will inevitably be right.

Buy assets that you would be happy to hold if the market was closed for years

A good purchase should be one for the long run, a good business or a good productive asset at a fair price shouldn’t be the function of market prices. Sure, if the price of your holding triples overnight (thanks to a takeover bid for example) it might be the good decision to cash out immediately, but in general, your investments should “work” without a constant market.

That, of course, means that apart from a liquid safety sum, you shouldn’t rely on your investments as a continuous source of income, rather a long-term source of wealth. This mindset will help you immensely both in your investment and portfolio decisions.

What’s next?

After these basic rules, we will take a look at the most reliable valuation measures that can help you decide what the fair price of an asset should be. That’s a crucial step towards successful investing, but don’t forget, the Holy Grail is not an algorithm, it’s common sense.

Previous article: Chart Patterns, Part 1

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 413 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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2 Comments

  1. Gabriel

    May 14, 2017 at 4:56 am

    Great guidance. When you favor value investing, it can be tempting to dip into trading as the markets go crazy on a daily basis. It is good to be reminded that patience is a great skill in itself.

  2. sjoenne

    May 21, 2017 at 10:07 pm

    Good guidance !
    What are your thoughts on Aragon (ANT) and SiaCoin(SC)??

    Would be great if there was a chatroom available inside hacked.com

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Trading 101

Insights Into Bitcoin Futures Contracts: Part 2

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Bitcoin futures

This article is the second piece dedicated to explaining bitcoin futures and how they impact the underlying price of BTC.

Periods of Validity

Bitcoin futures are instruments with a limited maturity date. Each contract has its own maturity date (the date of completion of the transaction), after which the contract is considered invalid. According to the validity period, futures are divided into quarterly and serial.

Most futures are quarterly futures. These are standardized contracts for the purchase/sale of transaction objects that are executed in the last month of each season. The last trading day, as a rule, falls on the period from the 15th to the 20th day of each last quarterly month and is indicated by the following symbols:

H – March
M – June
U – September
Z – December

Serial futures are intermediate contracts whose maturity date falls on any other month of the year that is different from the last quarterly. The last trading day of such futures, as a rule, falls on the third Friday of the month. The closing date of the contract is specified in the specification of the futures agreement.

Bitcoin futures present on CME and CBOE and have their own expiration dates:

  • For CME contracts, this is the last Friday of the month or the day preceding it if a holiday falls;
  • For CBOE contracts, the expiration date is the second business day before the third Friday of the month.

Futures Trading Terms

In 2018, direct work with Bitcoin futures is supported on several cryptocurrency exchanges, including OKCoin and BitMEX. As Hacked reported, during the height of the recent downturn, transaction volumes on BitMEX surged to over 40% of the entire market.

If you want to trade Bitcoin futures on regulated platforms through an intermediary broker, you can choose one of two exchanges: CBOE and CME.

Sellers and buyers enter into a contract with the exchange, and all further interactions between them pass through the clearing house of the exchange. Futures trading in Bitcoins consists of three stages:

  1. Entry into the position: At this step, the trader, buying futures, predicts the movement of cryptocurrency value.
  2. Waiting stage: When the trader’s forecast is correct, and the value of the asset moves in the right direction, he chooses the most appropriate moment to close his position. If the forecast is not correct, then the trader must determine the moment when you can leave the market, having suffered minimal losses.
  3. Closing Stage: This is the last stage of futures trading, in which the futures holder sells a contract and fixes its profit or loss.

When futures are bought, the trader pays only the exchange commission and pays the security amount for the contract. Usually, the size of the security collateral is in the range of 4-10% of the amount of the futures agreement. Due to the strong volatility of cryptocurrency, for bitcoin futures, the size of the collateral is always increased and can reach up to 30-50%, but average is 10-20%. The less financial risks, the less will be the size of the collateral amount.

One unit of trading on the CBOE exchange is equal to 1 bitcoin (XBT ticker), and the size of the futures contract on the CME platform consists of 5 bitcoins (BTC ticker). Bitcoin futures is a settlement type of contract, and the execution takes place by determining the difference between the cost of opening a position and the value of the settlement index on the day the futures are closed. Financial indexes are administered by a special party.

How to Trade

Bitcoin futures trading does not have any particular secrets or differences from other trading instruments. The scenario is the same as in the use of other trading tools: to make a profit, you need to predict which direction the bitcoin price will go. You build a forecast for a certain period of time and buy a futures contract.

For example, the most straightforward scheme for using a Bitcoin futures contract looks like this: knowing that the cost of bitcoin will go up, at the time of writing you can buy two-month futures for 10 bitcoins at the price of $4,000 USD. If your predictions come true, and the cost of BTC really goes up, you just have to follow Bitcoin quotes in the market. If during the contract term, the price of Bitcoin rises to $4,500, you can sell futures without waiting for the maturity date and earn your $ 5,000 ($500 profit x 10 bitcoins).

You can get such a profit without Bitcoin futures; it is enough to actually buy 10 Bitcoins and wait for the quotes change in the right direction. But in this case, you will have to operate on the full value of the asset: 10 x $4,000 = $40,000. But when buying Bitcoin futures, you will need to pay only brokerage fees and pay a deposit of 10-20% on average of the futures amount ($4,000-$8,000).

As with any trading instrument, futures trading requires not only basic financial literacy but also a balanced approach to planning, analyzing and attention to details. You should study well all the conditions of the exchange, the schedule of its work, commission, fees, etc.

In order to be able to enter into a futures contract, you will need to open a brokerage account, and each exchange independently decides whether it will allow you to trade on its site or not. Margin requirements are also set by the brokers themselves.

Many trading platforms can protect assets from sudden changes in their value in various ways. For example, on the CBOE exchange, there are such rules for suspension of trading, when the price of cryptocurrency begins to change dramatically. In particular: if the cost quickly rises or falls 10%, then the trades will be stopped for 2 minutes; if the course rises or falls by 20%, the use of the financial instrument will be stopped for 5 minutes.

Futures prices also have different price formations. For example, CME sets prices, taking into account data from the crypto exchanges platforms Bitstamp, Kraken, Coinbase Pro, and ItBit, and CBOE forms the value of the futures contract, starting from the exchange rate on the Gemini exchange.

The Impact of Futures on the Bitcoin Price

There are some concerns that bitcoin futures can be used for aggressive trading. However, if the value of such contracts went out of control, then arbitrators would have intervened.

Bitcoin futures are speculative instruments that allow you to influence the value of BTC without even owning it. Critics, including some from the futures industry, argue that such contracts are premature and, in the worst case, represent a systemic risk, given the underlying volatility of the crypto market.

However, the use of futures on Bitcoin has two significant consequences:

  1. Bitcoin futures, unlike cryptocurrency itself, can be traded on regulated exchanges and this is excellent news for traders concerned about the lack of regulators in the field of digital money.
  2. New trading tools open up opportunities for using Bitcoin in areas where cryptocurrency trading is prohibited. And this will open the door to broader participation in the cryptocurrency market of giant companies and investors from different countries.

Futures contracts will bring more liquidity to the market, which, in turn, will simplify the conduct of operations with cryptocurrency and make trade more profitable. Their use is primarily intended to balance price fluctuations in underlying assets.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.9 stars on average, based on 28 rated postsVladislav Semjonov has a legal and financial background. He has been involved in crypto space since early 2017 in both ICO advising positions in several ICO consultancy firms, and as an ICO analyst for VC. He began contributing for Hacked.com in April 2017.




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Trading 101

Insights Into Bitcoin Futures Contracts: Part 1

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Bitcoin futures

In December last year, Bitcoin achieved an all-time high of around $20,000 USD. One of the main factors that influenced such a price increase was the introduction of a futures contract on Bitcoin. Although the gains largely preceded the launch of the futures contract, they were partly driven on expectations of a new derivatives product being offered by CBOE/CME. In this article, I will try to explain the principle of a futures contract and how it can impact bitcoin’s price.

On 10th December 2017, CME Group launched trading in bitcoin futures, and a week later such actions were carried out by its competitor Cboe Global Markets.

The launch of CME futures has increased the legal status of cryptocurrency and has also boosted investor interest in the digital asset. The key question here is: how can this instrument make you additional money?

What are Futures Contracts?

In the world of trading, there are many different ways to buy and sell assets on exchanges, and some of them are very risky, such as margin trading. Futures contracts are a way to transfer risk, depending on how aggressively you want to trade. This concept is not new, as it has existed for decades and now applies to Bitcoin.

A Bitcoin futures contract is an agreement between two parties to a transaction that buys or sells BTC at a predetermined price at a future date. That is, the futures buyer acquires the right to sell BTC coins in the future at a fixed rate, and the futures seller announces his consent to accept the cryptocurrency on the settlement date at a fixed price.

History of Futures

The idea of creating futures contracts was initially to protect manufacturers and suppliers from sudden or significant fluctuations in commodity prices. This is a written agreement that determines the size (quantity), cost, evaluation (quality) and conditions for delivery of the goods on a specific date in the future. These instruments are traded (bought and sold) between producers, dealers or speculators (i.e., traders seeking to profit from price movements).

The first registered commodity futures transactions for the sale of rice occurred at the beginning of the XVII century in Japan. These contracts also made their way to the United States in the early 1800s when many agricultural products began to be produced. Most of these products had a limited shelf life, and the quality of stored products usually deteriorated over time, so the prices could vary significantly. Therefore, the first contracts for the future price appeared, which allowed the seller to get money for the goods before delivery.

The first American exchange was established in 1848 and was called the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). Its creation was preceded by the emergence of railways and telegraph, which connected the trading center with the agricultural market.

A group of brokers working in this council was able to establish a standardized and more efficient method of exchanging goods, thanks to the launch of futures contracts on the exchange. Instead of managing numerous individual agreements between interested parties, they developed futures that were identical in terms of asset quality, delivery dates, and conditions, and simplified the entire process of buying and selling future supply at the current price.

How Do Futures Contracts Work?

In practice, futures contracts look like this. For example, a farmer concludes futures agreement with a dealer that he will supply him with 10 tons of corn in early August. Both parties to the transaction receive their “guarantee” – the farmer will be paid a certain amount for the corn, and the dealer fixes his buying price in the future.

Such agreements became very widespread, and are even used as collateral for bank loans and can also be transferred. If the farmer decided that he will not sell his corn, he can directly sell his contract to another farmer. A dealer may also do so;  if his plans have changed and he no longer needs corn, he can always resell his futures on the exchange to another intermediary.

In Bitcoin futures, you also fix the price and a certain number of coins that will be sold or bought in the future. It is a tool to transfer or accept the risk. Parties to the agreements may take different positions:

  1. Buyers who have a hope to buy coins at a better price when the value of the asset increases enter into a trade from a long position.
  2. The selling side works from a short position, which will be able to get a more attractive price in the future, having successfully sold its product when its value starts to go down.

On the trading floor futures contract can be used throughout the duration. The parties may also place money in escrow to reduce the risk of the counterparty during the term of the futures contract. This is usually done only when the price begins to show strong movement to a long or short position held either by the buyer or the seller.

Types of Futures

There are two separate types of futures contracts:

  • Physical delivery futures, which are an agreement for a specific asset that will be transferred at the end of the term of the futures. An asset can be any commodity or money (oil, grain, cryptocurrency, gold, etc.).
  • Trade or settlement (non-deliverable) futures, which are a type of contract that involve the conclusion of an agreement without physically transferring the object.

Bitcoin futures produced to-date are the settlement type of the trade agreement since there is no physical transfer of the asset. All financial transactions on futures contracts are a practical tool in trading since they can perform two actions:

  1. Hedging (insurance of price movement risks)
  2. Speculation (the possibility of quick earnings on the difference in the value of the subject of the transaction)

Players involved in speculation are very interested in bitcoin’s price volatility because it gives them the opportunity to open short and long positions several times a week and make good money. Experienced traders who use technical analysis to predict movements in the market quite often make profits on futures transactions with Bitcoin.

In the next article, I will speak more about terms of BTC futures and where one can trade them.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.9 stars on average, based on 28 rated postsVladislav Semjonov has a legal and financial background. He has been involved in crypto space since early 2017 in both ICO advising positions in several ICO consultancy firms, and as an ICO analyst for VC. He began contributing for Hacked.com in April 2017.




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Trading 101: 4 Reliable Chart Patterns in Crypto Trading

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Graph

In our previous piece on chart patterns, we pointed out that the way to use patterns is to judge probabilities that a certain move will happen rather than to view them as some holy grail in the market (which unfortunately doesn’t exist to my knowledge).

Although they aren’t holy grails, chart patterns are some of the best tools we can use to trade the markets with a surprising degree of accuracy. For example, some estimate that a well-known pattern like the head & shoulders have an accuracy of more than 80% when it is complete. Very few indicators can match that!

In this article, we’ll go over the 4 best chart patterns to use in crypto trading, teach you how to spot them in the charts, and show you how to trade them.

1. Head & shoulders pattern

Since I already singled out the head & shoulders as the most accurate pattern, let’s start with this classic chart pattern that most people have heard about and probably have an idea what should look like.

head and shoulders

The head & shoulders pattern generally signals a reversal in the market, as it is essentially a failed attempt of a trend to move higher. As we know, an uptrend is defined as a series of higher highs and higher lows, but in the case of the head & shoulder, the last trend wave fails at making a higher high and higher low, and a new downtrend is initiated. The opposite pattern, known as an inverse head & shoulder, signals a shift from a downtrend to an uptrend.

Since the head & shoulder is so well-known by now, and the logic is based on simple trend trading, it is often considered to be the most reliable pattern in trading. It can often be easier to spot on a line chart as it can help you filter out all the clutter otherwise found on candlestick charts.

2. Bull flag

This is a continuation pattern and is also considered one of the most reliable bullish patterns we have. Sometimes also called a pennant or a wedge, these names all essentially refer to the same thing.

Bull flag

The bull flag is formed when price enters a consolidation phase following a strong uptrend. What really happens when price is consolidating is that the market is gathering momentum for the next burst up. It is a natural part of a trend where those who have been with the trend from the beginning are taking the opportunity to realize some of their profits, while new traders are entering the market and positioning themselves for the next run-up in prices.

3. Cup and handle

First introduced in William O’Neil’s book How to Make Money in Stocks, the cup and handle pattern is a bullish chart pattern that is very well-known in the stock market, but also appears to work well in other markets.

According to O’Neil, the pattern should span a period of 1 to 6 months in the stock market. In crypto, where everything moves faster, this period can safely be cut in half. For the pattern to be more reliable, we would ideally want to see a significant rise in trading volume near the end of the handle as price begins to rise. A buy order should be entered as price breaks above the high made by the right side of the cup.

The logic behind the pattern is the same as for the head & shoulder and trend waves: the cup represents the bottom in the market and the handle creates a higher low, which by definition means that an uptrend has started.

4. Rectangle

The rectangle is a similar pattern to the bull flag and trading channels, where price appears to be “stuck” between two imaginary lines on the chart. The more touches we have between these outer lines and the price, the more reliable the pattern is considered to be.

The rectangle is a trend continuation pattern, and often becomes a waiting game for traders since it is difficult to tell exactly when the price will break out of the pattern. However, the pattern is fairly reliable at predicting the direction price will break out in. The rectangle can be either bullish or bearish, depending on the direction of the preceding trend.

The pattern can be traded either by placing an order when price is close to the lower end of the rectangle with a stop just below the lower line and then waiting for price to break out. Alternatively, you can place a buy order just above the upper end of the rectangle in hopes of catching the trade as the price breaks out. The danger with the last option is that fake-outs where price spikes up just to fall back down do occur quite frequently. As always in trading, taking a slightly more conservative approach may serve you well over the long-term.

Featured image from Pixabay.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.3 stars on average, based on 37 rated postsFredrik Vold is an entrepreneur, financial writer, and technical analysis enthusiast. He has been working and traveling in Asia for several years, and is currently based out of Beijing, China. He closely follows stocks, forex and cryptocurrencies, and is always looking for the next great alternative investment opportunity.




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