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Trading 101

Trading 101: 10 Essential Investment Rules For Rookies

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As you saw in our Trading vs. Investing article, in several ways, value investing is the polar opposite of trading. That said, in other regards, the two different approaches are very close to each other. Following your investment rules with discipline, for example, is as important in investing as it is in trading. In short, objectivity, patience, dealing with emotions, and other “soft” skills are very important for both methods. The actual rules and best practices to follow, on the other hand, are usually unique for trading and investing.

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Also read: 10 Essential Trading Rules for Rookies

As with trading, there are rules that are more important for beginners than they are later on in an investor’s career. In several ways, staying in the game is more important than your initial results, as with experience you will naturally evolve, find your comfort zone, and be able to focus on your edge. The following rules are addressing the most basic mistakes that rookies commit, while also focusing on the cornerstones of investing that will jump-start your career and boost your returns.

Let’s jump straight into it.

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Good investing is simple, don’t complicate your analysis

This is probably the most important rule that should be taught on financial courses before anything else. Keep it simple! Buy great assets for a fair price. That sentence is the key to investing. Sophisticated models are often just tools for justifying a “gut” decision, or worse, convincing yourself that your initial decision was wrong. Don’t fall into that trap!

Think about it, what makes a great company for example? It has an edge over its competitors, has a solid and growing market where it sells its products, and has a history if innovation and flexibility. These simple rules are almost always enough to find investment candidates, and if the valuation is also favorable, you will have the margin of safety to act upon your analysis without taking on unnecessary risks.

Valuation matters in the long-run but it’s not a timing tool

One of the common mistakes of newbie investors, including your humble author himself, is that you will be looking for “the Holy Grail” measure that will help you decide whether or not a company or stock or a market is overvalued, undervalued, or fairly valued. The truth is that there are several measures that come close enough, but investing is far from being a valuation-only game.

This is especially true if you try to base your timing decisions on valuations. As Keynes once said, markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. The emphasis on timing is crucial, as valuation should be incorporated into your analysis, but don’t expect the market to turn higher just because the asset got undervalued, or crash because it’s overvalued. As an investor, you have to accept that even long-term price trends might be products of mass psychology, economic trends, government intervention, and so on. On the long run valuation drives returns, but short-term it says nothing about the direction of the market.

Start investing in businesses that you know

The competitive edge, the stable and growing market, and the history of good decisions seem like very easy filters for companies, but they are only easy if you know the business that you are dealing with. Otherwise, you might be basing your decisions on false assumptions.  Of course, this goes for all other forms of investments, from farming to antiques.

If the most successful investors stick to a few industries that they are familiar with, why would a beginner venture into unknown territories? Using your knowledge and interests can give you the edge in the beginning of your career.

Markets show the value of the last trade, not the “real” value of assets

Maybe the biggest fallacy, which is common even among financial professionals, is that they treat the price of an asset as the one and only truth out there, without thinking about the mechanics of markets.  That puts the “valuation” of assets into totally unrealistic heights near the top of bull markets and to insanely cheap levels at the bottom of bear markets.

For an individual investor these are great opportunities, but remember, on average investors will never be able to realize those prices. Why? Because if every owner of the given stock appeared on the market to buy or sell, the realized price would be way lower or higher than the quote that you see on your screen.

The tide of a bull market lifts all “ships” but a bear market hurts even the best companies

One of the most important lessons for an investor comes from the fundamental change in risk appetite between rising and falling markets. Bull markets tend to be long and a lot of times boring affairs for an investor, as valuations get richer and richer across the board, quietly reaching levels where it will be very hard to pick bargains. On the flipside, your holdings will deliver great returns, with relatively low volatility, a lot of times much more than you’d ever expected. Value these times and be patient until you notice the signs of change.

On the other hand, you have to know that when markets tank, even the best companies can suffer great losses. Sentiment turns bleak, and panicked investors run for the exits, often pushing valuations way below any reasonable level. If you are confident in your decisions you will hold on to your investments and even add to your holdings rather than dumping them on the market.

Be greedy when others are in panic and cautious in times of euphoria

Another rule that is attributed to Warren Buffett, but if you understand the previous rules it’s just a small logical step. That said, this small step is often the hardest, on market bottoms, everything looks gloomy, everyone thinks the world will end, and even as your analysis shows bargains all over the place, you will most likely hesitate to “pull the trigger”.

Conversely, near tops you will have plenty of excuses to ignore the warnings signs that pop up, as the economy will be great, investors will be piling into risk assets, and prices will seemingly keep on rising forever. Still, these times should be used to gradually lower your exposure to prepare for the inevitable sobering.

This time it’s not different

Panics and bubbles almost always give way to extreme opinions and baseless speculation, with a “new era of investments” or a “plateau of high valuations” on one side and “the collapse of the financial system” or the “end of the economy as we know it” on the other side. These theories help in justifying the irrational nature of markets, while also feeding the excess sentiment, but don’t be fooled, 99% of the times they will have nothing to do with the reality. Base your decisions on your analysis and common sense, rather than wild predictions and unfounded projections.

Successful investing is about patience, excitement shouldn’t be your goal

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If you are having lots of fun while investing you might be doing something wrong; too much exposure, leverage, too concentrated bets could all give you thrills, but usually at the cost of way too high risk. Most of the times, a good purchase is in segments that are totally forgotten, and considered “boring”. Think about it, what are the chances that you will find deeply undervalued assets in a hyped market?

Also, exciting market moves are characteristics of a bubble, and although bubbles are great to ride all the way up, a disciplined investor will likely exit them a bit early. But that’s not a bad thing, bubbles are only easy to trade in hindsight, and although you won’t sell at the exact top, that last 10% won’t make a huge difference if you have been participating in the trend since the start.

Patiently waiting for great opportunities and sitting out boring advances are crucial and underrated skills—work on them.

Sometimes doing nothing is the optimal strategy

This rule is closely related to the previous one, but it’s crucial to understand, especially in today’s environment, that most of the times investors don’t have to be active. The media, sell-side analysts, and your broker are all there to tell you otherwise and encourage you to trade. This often leads to investors mixing trading with value investing and losing perspective.

While it’s common to think that the next big turning point is close, and someone out there is just nailing it, the reality is that trends will usually go on much longer than anyone expects. If you are waiting for a boom or crash every month, then you should revise your expectations, even if once you will inevitably be right.

Buy assets that you would be happy to hold if the market was closed for years

A good purchase should be one for the long run, a good business or a good productive asset at a fair price shouldn’t be the function of market prices. Sure, if the price of your holding triples overnight (thanks to a takeover bid for example) it might be the good decision to cash out immediately, but in general, your investments should “work” without a constant market.

That, of course, means that apart from a liquid safety sum, you shouldn’t rely on your investments as a continuous source of income, rather a long-term source of wealth. This mindset will help you immensely both in your investment and portfolio decisions.

What’s next?

After these basic rules, we will take a look at the most reliable valuation measures that can help you decide what the fair price of an asset should be. That’s a crucial step towards successful investing, but don’t forget, the Holy Grail is not an algorithm, it’s common sense.

Previous article: Chart Patterns, Part 1

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



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2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. Gabriel

    May 14, 2017 at 4:56 am

    Great guidance. When you favor value investing, it can be tempting to dip into trading as the markets go crazy on a daily basis. It is good to be reminded that patience is a great skill in itself.

  2. sjoenne

    May 21, 2017 at 10:07 pm

    Good guidance !
    What are your thoughts on Aragon (ANT) and SiaCoin(SC)??

    Would be great if there was a chatroom available inside hacked.com

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Education

Research an ICO (Initial Coin Offering) Like a Pro – Insider Information

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I usually write about Altcoins investing and trading. Right now I wanted to spill the beans on how I research an ICO. If you are not familiar with an ICO, it is a coin offering an altcoin does to raise funds to build the product or to expand their company/reach.

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Instead of doing an IPO as most traditional companies do, a lot of companies are now going ICOs. Why? Many reasons but I would say the top 2 are the fact that millions of dollars are being raised in a short amount of time as investors are trying to be a part of the new altcoin launches in order get in on the ground floor. The second reason is that investors that take part in an ICO do not own actual equity in a company, they are essentially just giving the company money in order to launch their product. In traditional IPOs, investors would actually own a small or large percentage of a company when they invest possibly giving them voting rights as well as actual company ownership.

Now I want to jump right into how I analyze and research an ICO. While some people start with the technology or the idea itself, I have to admit that I start with the ICO token metrics. First, calculate market cap to make sure they are not overvaluing themselves compared to other ICOs or existing altcoins.

Determine the Market Cap of the ICO:

  • Calculate the token price with this formula ETH Current Price/Num Tokens per ETH
  • Now multiply Token Price * Number of Tokens in Circulation (tokens sold in crowdsale + presale)

This is the company market cap roughly if the ICO sells all available tokens during the crowdsale. Take this market cap and compare it to the top 100 altcoins to see how the coin compares. If the market cap equals $30,000,000 then they would need to grow to $90,000,000 in order for you to make 3x your investment. Now go to Coinmarketcap.com and see what companies have the same market cap as this ICO. Ask yourself: Is this ICO as good as the existing altcoin and is it or should it be worth the market cap they are trying to achieve with the ICO launch.

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Now that you have determined that the market cap is good and that the altcoin has the potential to make you 3x – 5x your initial investment it is time to move on.

Read the Whitepaper:

Ask yourself these questions: Is the technology unique? Can this company survive/thrive without doing an ICO? What is the purpose of the token in the company ecosystem? Are they just creating a coin to profit in this ICO craze or does the coin serve an important purpose? How will the coin increase in value, is it based only on hype on exchanges or is it from it being used as a utility in the company? Does this company have competitors that may make this one irrelevant?

Research the Team:

First off, is the legitimate? Do they really exist on Linkedin, etc. You would be surprised how often the team members can be faked. Read the linkedin description to see if the team member is full-time with the ICO and if the ICO is even mentioned at all.

Research the ICO Advisers:

Are the advisers relevant to the ICO or are they just a shiny attention grabber? If you see the same adviser on multiple ICOs then their credibility/value to the ICO diminishes greatly.

Determine Level of Hype:

Don’t underestimate this step. An easy way to get a feel for hype and popularity is to google the name of the ICO. See how many mentions are in the google search results. Make sure you use exact matches such as quotes in the google search so that you don’t get results for the word ‘the’ or something generic. How many times are they mentioned on social media? The best way to do this is to go to buzzsumo.com and type in the name of the ICO. This will give you a results list showing content and mentions on Facebook, Linkedin, Twitter, Pinterest and how many times the content pieces were shared. Go to the ICO website and search for the websites, social media and chat programs where they interact. Some of the most popular are Slack Channel, Telegram Chat, Twitter, Bitcointalk.org, Reddit.com.

Check out their existing product and code:

For this step you don’t have to know programming or anything like that. You will just want to go to their Github.com account as this is where they will store the code for their project. You can see how often they update their code and how active they are developing. Also, do some research on their past products if they are an existing business that is just expanding by offering an ICO.

Research similar altcoins:

Go to Coinmarketcap.com and CryptoCompare.com and study similar coin charts. Of course, every company is different but you just want to get a general feel for the potential. Right now ICO investors are leaning towards investing in Protocols and Platforms such as 0x, Kyber and Raiden. Ideas that are needed to propel blockchain and cryptocurrency forward.

Good luck researching ICOs and may you see 3x – 100x returns. CryptoDayTrader, over and out…

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



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Cryptocurrencies

Make More Profit with Proof of Stake Altcoins – Ultimate Guide

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Here is a list of all coins that are Proof-of-Stake. Some of these coins get very little volume but I wanted this to be an extensive list of all coins that are proof-of-stake. The value of these type coins is that you can buy and hold any amount of the coin and you will get paid interest each year for holding them in an active wallet. The more coins you have, the more you make. Long story short: Buy the altcoin, hold the altcoin, make money from holding it each year.

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“Proof of Stake is a type of algorithm by which a cryptocurrency blockchain network aims to achieve distributed consensus. Unlike Proof-of-Work (PoW) based cryptocurrencies (such as bitcoin), where the algorithm rewards participants who solve complicated cryptographical puzzles in order to validate transactions and create new blocks (i.e. mining), in PoS-based cryptocurrencies the creator of the next block is chosen in a deterministic (pseudo-random) way, and the chance that an account is chosen depends on its wealth (i.e. the stake).”- Wikipedia

I will highlight some of the more profitable and well-known proof of stake coins and include a link to their website. This is meant to be an exhaustive list of all PoS coins as of 2017 and will be updated as new coins get added.

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  • AcesCoin (ACES)
  • AcesCoin (AEC)
  • Aegis (AGS)
  • Aero Coin (AERO)
  • Algo.Land (PLM)
  • Allsafe (ASAFE)
  • Ammo Rewards (AMMO)
  • ArchCoin (ARCH)
  • Ardor (ARDR)
  • Asia Coin (AC)
  • Atmos (ATMS)
  • Avatar Coin (AV)
  • AvonCoin (ACN)
  • BattleCoin (BCX)
  • BattleStake (BSTK)
  • BigUp (BIGUP)
  • BitBay (BAY)
  • BitCurrency (BTCR)
  • BitHIRE (HIRE*)
  • BitLuckCoin (BTLC)
  • BitMoon (BM)
  • BitOKX (BITOK)
  • BitVegan (VEG)
  • BitVolt (VOLT)
  • BitcoinTX (BTX*)
  • BitluckCoin (BTCL)
  • Bitradio (BRO)
  • Bitshares (BTS)
  • Bitz Coin (BITZ)
  • BlackCoin (BLK)
  • Blackstar (BSTAR)
  • BlitzCoin (BLITZ)
  • Boats and Bitches (BNB*)
  • BonesCoin (BON*)
  • CAIx (CAIx)
  • CabbageUnit (CAB)
  • Cardano (ADA)
  • CheckCoin (CXC)
  • Clickcoin (CLICK)
  • CoffeeCoin (CFC)
  • Coin to the Future (BTTF)
  • ColossusCoinXT (COLX)
  • CoolCoin (COOL)
  • CoralPay (CORAL)
  • CraigsCoin (CRAIG)
  • Creatio (XCRE)
  • Crowdwiz (WIZ)
  • Crypti (XCR)
  • CryptoCircuits (CIRC)
  • CryptoJournal (CJC)
  • CryptoPennies (CRPS)
  • Cryptokenz (CYT)
  • CybCSec Coin (XCS)
  • Dash (DASH) – Website: https://www.dash.org/ – Annual Return: Approx 7.5%
  • DeOxyRibose (XNA)
  • Decent (DCT)
  • DeltaCredits (DCRE)
  • Diggits (DIGS)
  • DigiCube (CUBE)
  • Digital Bullion Gold (DBG)
  • Draftcoin (DFT)
  • Dropcoin (DRC)
  • EGOcoin (EGO)
  • Ebitz (EBZ)
  • EbolaShare (EBS)
  • Exclusive Coin (EXCL)
  • Extreme Sportsbook (XSB)
  • FaucetCoin (DROP)
  • FazzCoin (FAZZ)
  • FindCoin (FIND)
  • FlyCoin (FLY)
  • Forever Coin (XFC)
  • FreeCoin (FRE)
  • Fuel2Coin (FC2)
  • FuturePoints (FTP)
  • GAIA Platform (GAIA)
  • GPU Coin (GPU)
  • GameBetCoin (GBT)
  • Global (GLOBE)
  • Global Currency Reserve (GCR)
  • GlowShares (GSX)
  • GorillaBucks (BUCKS*)
  • GrexitCoin (GREXIT)
  • GrowthCoin (GRW)
  • HealthyWorm (WORM)
  • HeelCoin (HEEL)
  • HiCoin (XHI)
  • Horizon (HZ)
  • Iconic (ICON)
  • Incrementum (INC)
  • InvisibleCoin (IVZ)
  • Ionomy (ION)
  • KryptCoin (KTK)
  • LePenCoin (LEPEN)
  • Let it Ride (LIR)
  • Limited Coin (LTD)
  • LuckyBlocks (LUCKY) (LUCKY)
  • Lutetium Coin (LC)
  • MacronCoin (MCRN)
  • MaieutiCoin (MMXIV)
  • MapCoin (MAPC)
  • MasterMint (MM)
  • MintCoin (MINT)
  • Mojocoin (MOJO)
  • MudraCoin (MUDRA)
  • Nas2Coin (NAS2)
  • Nautilus Coin (NAUT)
  • Navcoin (NAV) – Website: http://www.navcoin.org/ – Annual Return: Up to 5%
  • Nebuchadnezzar (NEBU)
  • NEO (NEO) – Formally Antshares, Website: https://neo.org/ – Annual Return: Approx 5.5%
  • NeosCoin (NEOS)
  • NeuCoin (NEU)
  • Neurocoin (NRC)
  • NewInvestCoin (NIC)
  • NoLimitCoin (NLC2)
  • Noocoin (NOO)
  • NuBits (NBT)
  • NuShares (NSR)
  • NukeCoin (NUKE)
  • Obsidian (ODN)
  • OkCash (OK) – Website: https://okcash.org/  – Annual Return: 10%
  • OldSafeCoin (OLDSF)
  • OmiseGo (OMG)
  • Opair (XPO)
  • OptionCoin (OPTION)
  • PSIcoin (PSI)
  • PandaCoin (PND)
  • PayCoin (XPY)
  • Persistent Information Exchange (PIE)
  • Phreak (PHR)
  • PIVX (PIVX) – Website: https://pivx.org/  – Annual Return: Approx 4.8%
  • PokeChain (XPOKE)
  • PostCoin (POST)
  • Power Ledger (POWR) – Website: https://powerledger.io/Annual Return: Not Sure
  • PrimeChain (PRIME)
  • Prizm (PZM)
  • ProCurrency (PROC)
  • Pulse (PULSE)
  • PureVidz (VIDZ)
  • QTUM (QTUM)
  • QoraCoin (QORA)
  • Quantum Resistant Ledger (QRL)
  • RadicalCoin (RADI)
  • Radium (RADS)
  • RadonPay (RDN)
  • Ratio (RATIO)
  • Red Pulse (RPX) – Website: https://coin.red-pulse.com/Annual Return: 5%
  • RenosCoin (RNS)
  • Resumeo Shares (RMS)
  • ReturnCoin (RNC)
  • Ride My Car (RIDE)
  • Rise (RISE)
  • RoyalCoin (ROYAL)
  • RoyalCoin 2.0 (RYCN)
  • Rubies (RBIES)
  • RubyCoin (RBY)
  • SARCoin (SAR)
  • SelenCoin (SEL)
  • ShortyCoin (SHORTY)
  • Signatum (SIGT)
  • SkullBuzz (SKB)
  • Specie (SPX)
  • Spectre (XSPEC)
  • SportsCoin (SPORT)
  • Squall Coin (SQL)
  • Stakecoin (STCN)
  • Stakers (STA*)
  • Stakerush (STHR)
  • SteamPunk (PNK)
  • Steps (STEPS)
  • SterlingCoin (SLG)
  • StorjCoin (SJCX)
  • Stratis (STRAT) – Website: https://stratisplatform.com/ – Annual Return: .5 – 1%
  • Subscriptio (SUB*)
  • TeamUP (TEAM)
  • The Vegan Initiative (XVE)
  • TrashBurn (TBCX)
  • TrickyCoin (TRICK)
  • TrumpCoin (TRUMP)
  • Turron (TUR)
  • UPcoin (XUP)
  • Ubiqoin (UBIQ)
  • Ucoin (U)
  • Ultimate Secure Cash (USC)
  • Universe (UNI)
  • Vcash (XVC)
  • Versa Token (VERSA)
  • Viral Coin (VIRAL)
  • WMCoin (WMC)
  • Wanchain (WAN)
  • WarpCoin (WARP)
  • WayCoin (WAY)
  • WealthCoin (WEALTH)
  • Wexcoin (WEX)
  • Wink (WINK)
  • XDE II (XDE2)
  • YobitVirtualCoin (YOVI)
  • ZeitCoin (ZEIT)
  • Zennies (ZENI)
  • deCLOUDs (DCS)

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

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Trading 101

Trading the News in Cryptocurrencies

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bitcoin news

Cryptocurrency trading shares many similarities with both forex and stock trading. All of these assets can be traded with a range of different trading strategies, using technical analysis, quantitative analysis, and fundamental analysis. In this article, we will focus on fundamental analysis and how you can succeed with cryptocurrency trading by trading the news.

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In the stock market, we all know how news can impact stock prices. This is especially true for penny stocks, where one corporate announcement can make a huge impact on the price. The same goes for forex, which is largely driven by fundamentals in the long terms and technicals in the shorter term.

Cryptocurrencies are ideal for news trading

One can argue that the cryptocurrency space is better suited for news trading than the stock or forex market is. The main reason for this is the lack of institutional traders, including high-frequency traders, in the crypto space. This is a space that is still dominated by retail traders, meaning you stand a much better chance at profiting from news releases by reacting in a quick and smart way.

So, what are some important things we need to consider when trading the news?

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  1. Is the news fresh? You need to evaluate whether the news is actually news or if it is already priced in by the market. Look at how the price moved ahead of the news release? Did the news just confirm an outcome that was already expected by the market, or did it bring new information to the table?
  2. Is the news of importance to the price of the cryptocurrency? Is it likely to impact the price over the long-term or is it a one-time boost?
  3. Is the coin liquid enough to be traded profitably in the short term? How many people are actually following this coin and related news?

Let’s take a look at how this can play out in a real-world scenario:

Phase 1 – The first leg: The news has just been released and the first reaction in the price is already seen. This is your first opportunity to take a position in the market to profit from. If momentum and liquidity is good, you can take your first position here.

Phase 2 – New buyers are joining the party: After the initial euphoria has settled, you will often experience a move in the opposite direction. This is expected, and happens because all the traders who were ready to buy right away already got their orders filled at this point. The market now needs new buyers to join in in order to continue to rise. And more often than not, that is exactly what happens. As the word of the positive news in your crypto asset spreads, more and more traders are joining in, extending the upward move in the price.

Phase 3: The swing trade opportunity: Medium to longer-term traders are now eyeing the opportunity to make money from this asset that is “in play,” instead of the boring stuff they are currently holding on to that is not making them any money. This type of trader is looking for longer-term opportunities in coins that are trending. Once an uptrend has formed, they look to enter as early as possible and ride the trend up.

How long should you hold the trade?

The trend will persist as long as new traders are jumping on this opportunity. Usually, trends act as self-fulfilling prophecies in the way that the longer the trend has lasted, the more people will hear about it and join in on it. When we finally reach a point where the sellers outnumber the new buyers, the trend ends and the cycle may repeat itself in the opposite direction.

One way to develop an estimate of how long the trend is going to last and setting a target price is by using Fibonacci extensions. You can also study previous trends in the asset and see if you can spot any pattern. In all asset classes, crypto included, trends move in waves that tend to repeat themselves.

Personally I prefer to hold on to the trade until the market has given a clear indication that the trend has ended. Usually, I will let this come in the form of price breaking through one of the moving averages, for example the 20 day moving average when trading on the daily timeframe. That way, I don’t have to second-guess when I should get out of the trade, and I also never change this rule once the trade is entered into. It’s not so important what strategy you choose for getting out of the trade, but it is very important that you do have a pre-determined plan for getting out and actually follow through with it.

These strategies work just as well for crypto trading as they do in the stock and forex markets. As the legendary trader Jesse Livermore said more than a hundred years ago:

“The pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes.”

Featured image from Pixabay.

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