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Top 10 Cryptocurrencies are Tanking – Prediction of the Bitcoin Price in 2017 and 2018

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The major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Ripple are down by more than one to eight percent today:

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Source: coinmarketcap.com

I want to let you know what I think of the cryptocurrency market we are facing, as I’ve experienced what is happening previously (2014-2015).

Source: coinmarketcap.com

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Cryptocurrencies tend to operate in a triangle, where something sparks interest, media coverage, prices are rising, and everyone is “making money.” One could argue that the latest surge in bitcoin and ethereum price is driven by ICO-enthusiasm. The prices tend to drive sharply upwards until deposits are matched by withdrawals and “take profits”. I believe bitcoin hit that crucial target at $3000 per bitcoin, and I hate to say it, but if history will repeat itself, the bitcoin price, including other cryptocurrencies, might fall by 70 to 80 percent in the coming years (2017 and 2018). The hype seems to be over. ICO-scams are appearing, and you can expect negative media coverage going forward, demanding regulation.

Cryptocurrency investors are impatient, so when they do not see that the price is rising but standing still, they tend to get bored and anxious. This might lead to a selloff which creates more panic in the market, and then prices go down.

I want to prepare our Gold Members of such a scenario. Of course, I might be wrong, that in this case the price will keep rising to 1 million USD per bitcoin (lol), but my gut feeling tells me we are continuing down to at least $1000 per bitcoin within the coming years (let’s hope I’m wrong).

What does this mean for you?

You should not hold more funds in cryptocurrencies than you can afford to lose and still be happy. Do not bet everything on the magical cryptocurrency economy. Put more funds into ordinary assets like Gold, Silver, and even corporate bond funds as I have.

Next week, I’ll let you in on a little investment secret that I believe will be a killer in the coming years. And I’m going to buy more and more shares of the X in order to take a bigger part of X. I’m excited.

Have a good weekend all.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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23 Comments

23 Comments

  1. Roberto

    July 1, 2017 at 2:30 pm

    70 to 80 percent drop. This is an unrealistic article and I can’t believe it actually got published.

    • gullyfoyle

      July 1, 2017 at 3:51 pm

      Have you measured the bear from the last bubble?

      • Roberto

        July 1, 2017 at 4:12 pm

        I just think 70 to 80 percent is unrealistic. Maby 50.to.60. Wouldn’t you agree?

        • gullyfoyle

          July 1, 2017 at 4:27 pm

          I measured it @ approx 65% sometime ago, value lost so I suppose I agree- as 50% retracement is my personal target. I was just surprised by your reaction to the article, it seems entirely plausible.

          • Roberto

            July 1, 2017 at 4:47 pm

            Let’s just hope we are both wrong. Thank you for quick honest response. Have a great day. Any thoughts on max coin?

        • gullyfoyle

          July 1, 2017 at 5:46 pm

          Dunno about maxcoin, unless there is something special about it (AFAIK there is not and it’s a Max Keiser P&D, which he subsequently dumped himself, so I’m guessing there is still a strong or some community behind it) I’d trade it but not hold. Just my opinion, but I know next to nothing about it since 2014.

  2. juliengro

    July 1, 2017 at 2:32 pm

    I believe you are 100 just.!!!
    I party is over until beginning middle 2018

  3. flogy4031

    July 1, 2017 at 2:55 pm

    well, beside trading crypto-coins do not seolve yet any real world problem. So you might be right, but I believe the hype will go on a little longer (3000 USD/BTC is not a vey powerfull psichological level). I think we will se at least one more wave up, though I believe two waves up to the “magic” 10.000 USD/BTC are likely. If by then we can not use coins to actually do something they might take a BIG fall. And who knows, we might see large sacale adoption as currency by that time, or we will se another blockchain becoming dominant and with real world applications (ETH,LSK,maybe XRP)

  4. alphadreams

    July 1, 2017 at 3:17 pm

    Even in Fibonacci pullbacks, 38.2%, 61.8% is standard, but 70.7% and 88.6% are common too. So it can happen with bitcoin too. Cryptos have be regularly pulling back 50% of just their bull runs, so as wild as “70-80” sounds, it is quite possible. This article is just asking people to use care as with any investment portfolio to diversify.

    Gold, for instance, was thought to continue to grow, and it may, but there are always pullbacks. As the asset grows… so too do the corrections. The percentages remain, but the dollar amount increases and you should use care. Especially if 70+ percent puts the price lower than your current average entry into the asset.

    I’ve attached a chart, where gold pulled back after breaking $1000 and was as high as $1035! Everyone was excited, there was still fear in the economy and gold was the safety. Then it pulled back 70% to $688 before a huge rally to $1920 range. It later pulled back 70% again to almost the previous high of $1035. I hope this illustrates how large these moves can be in assets that are not stocks/equities.

    https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/lFXnCM8Z-Gold-70-7-pullback/

  5. cryptopalevu

    July 1, 2017 at 3:19 pm

    Jonas thanks for publishing this. As you know with the exchanges being backlogged for verification and such a new space, it is not so easy to make the conversion from Altcoins to Fiat… strategies on how to do that as well would be welcomed.

  6. cryptopalevu

    July 1, 2017 at 3:44 pm

    Remember: the internet boom reached 3 trillion before crashing hard, and cryptocurrency market is at 100 billion.

    Also, as opposed to the stock market where stocks are sold to fiat, a lot of crypto is *reinvested* into more successful cryptos.

    Having said that, I realize that Bitcoin and Ethereum hold the vast majority of the $$ where as the internet stocks were much more spread out in wealth.

    My effort here is to consider all factors and make the right decision.

  7. visiondream3

    July 1, 2017 at 4:07 pm

    I think during this bull run, many people got in at around $2000, so I think that figure may be a watershed moment. If they are frightened to hold on when the negative news kills bitcoin again, it will be worse.

  8. pradz

    July 1, 2017 at 4:14 pm

    Thanks Jonas,
    For the article. Little bummed out by your views, but as with every problem I’m sure a buying opportunity is around the corner and I’m sure you and the Chartbusters will figure out where.

    “there something strange….

  9. Tommy

    July 1, 2017 at 9:52 pm

    There’s the time to panic and screaming ;P guess all my alt’s just went in for a loong ride now. better just hold, then panic sell at 30% down. idk if they go 90% down, until the day i actually have to sell . (or loose them)

  10. wolfye82

    July 2, 2017 at 8:43 am

    Hi Jonas, all. Interesting point of view and yes also a plausible scenario. One thing that should be taken in consideration is the investments that big companies like Microsoft, IBM, Accenture and also big Banks are making in blockchain technlogy (mostly ETH and XRP driven), investments that were not so common in the past…. So, my feeling is that the drop could be not so dramatic.

  11. Chris G

    July 2, 2017 at 11:12 pm

    Thus far, Mate Cser has been spot on in terms of trading predictions. And this recent bubble is def. reminiscent of the 2014/2015 surge that brought so much attention to BTC. That said, obviously I wish I had held long-term positions in BTC when the price was around $400. The general consensus at this point seems to be 1. hold a long-term position, while 2. profit taking during the bubble. In terms of Ethereum, I’m dug in with about a $20k investment in mining equipment that I view as part of a long-term position. But big thanks to hacked.com and particularly Mate, whose advice has me at +$10k on cryptocurrencies at the moment … only risk what you can lose on this one!

  12. birmas

    July 5, 2017 at 4:39 pm

    I went long on a bunch of alt coins that are currently stored with poloniex. What are your suggestions in a case like mine? Should I withdraw my coins to local wallets or leave them and wait for the bounce? Advice appreciated 🙂

    • eriore

      July 5, 2017 at 7:57 pm

      I would personally advise against leaving crypto you aren’t trading in an exchange. There is always the possibility they can get hacked and someone steal a ton of crypto, only store what you are trading on the exchanges and anything else you would like to hold on a local or hardware wallet.

  13. Mr. Anderson

    July 6, 2017 at 3:32 am

    I strongly doubt this will happen especially in that time span. Perhaps when coin distribution runs out however I still think that is a reach because the price will be far too high by then. This month seems to have the best chance at seeing 1k with the proposals looming however many other positive influences are occurring across the globe simultaneously.

    Bitcoin is just now picking up steam and being regulated into normalcy by many governments. Let’s not forget that blockchain technology is secure by default (on the chain – primary vulns are endpoints and centralized infrastructure and gaps are closing), globally fault tolerant, enabling financial freedom from banks and gov corruption, disabling fraud and so much more. Currency was just the first application to be put on top of blockchain. Most of the FUD being flung is from those who stand to lose their way of life WHEN this becomes mainstream IMHO.

  14. godishere

    August 18, 2017 at 3:15 am

    Lol gut feeling. You’ll miss out big time, the chart says it’s crossing $10,000 by the end of this year. Haha.

  15. duberz

    December 7, 2017 at 9:51 pm

    and now 15k lol

  16. scottolson

    December 15, 2017 at 4:11 am

    Hello from the future , 17k $ at the moment, the party is getting hotter. It’s seems like no one could predict bitcoins next spike. So you’d better invest and put ur money around the bitcoin’s mania. That’s exactly what Benjamin books teach us, don’t follow the crowd, thx for your valuable thoughts

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Oil Extends Rally as Nasdaq Leads Stocks Higher

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Friday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2749 1.38%
DAX 12,483 0.18%
WTI Crude Oil 63.58 1.29%
GOLD 1330.00 -0.16%
Bitcoin 10,14 -0.09%
EUR/USD 1.2295 -0.28%

US equities built up some bullish momentum towards the end of the week, ignoring the technical damage that the volatility-crash caused, and the major US indices rallied into the close today, squeezing the shorts. The Nasdaq, which led the rally as we expected, took out the key 6850 level in late trading and added another percent to, incredibly enough, finish only a hundred point of the all-time high.

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NASDAQ 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Should the tech benchmark retest the high next week, it will be amid very strong negative divergences, but hey, those divergences have been building for months now. The rally in equities was boosted by the dip in Treasury yields, especially at the long end of the curve, while Amazon continued ot lead the charge, closing right at the historic $1500 per share level.

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Russell 2000 (Small Cap) Index, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The advance in the Dow and the S&P 500 is much less convincing and with small caps also lagging the tech-behemoth juggernaut, we remain skeptical regarding the sustainability of the move. That said, if the broader indices stay above the key levels, we will be trading the long side in equities, even as from an investment standpoint, valuations are still way above acceptable.

Forex Markets and Commodities

The lackluster performance of European and Asian stocks adds to the negative divergences, especially as the Euro stopped appreciating against the Greenback, and that should be helping stocks of the old continent. Of course, the DAX and the EuroStoxx 50 could play catch-up next week, barring another surge in the common currency.

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The most-traded forex pair remains in a short-term downtrend, as it failed to recapture the previously broken rising trendline, and the commodity related risk-on currencies also remained under pressure. The Canadian Dollar did bounce back off yesterday’s 8-week lows, boosted by the much hihger than expected inflation release and the jump in the price of crude oil.

USD/CAD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Oil benefited from the positive shift in sentiment, while the Syrian situation, which took a backseat in the headlines, still supports the rally. The Japanese Yen and gold were stable amid the risk-rally and that adds to our suspicions regarding the upside potential form these levels.

Cryptocurrencies

The segment started out the day with a strong bounce that carried the major coins higher by around 10%, but given the recent steep short-term pullback, even that wasn’t enough to turn the tide, and the day ended with an (almost usual) sell-off after the US close. Despite the recent volatility, the overall picture is still encouraging, with most of the majors being safely above the crash lows, likely in a new bullish cycle that has the potential to last for several more weeks or even months.

While new all-time highs are it guaranteed following the 60-70% declines among the largest coins, but even without those, plenty of upside potential is left for investors. With that in mind, investors should hold on to their coins and even add to their holdings on the short-term dips like the current one.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Majors Stage Rally but Strong Levels Still Ahead

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The cryptocurrency segment has recovered from a broad correction today in early trading, with the most valuable coins all turning into green during the session, despite the bearish start to the overnight session. With bottom-to-top gains of up to 15%, the rally helped in easing the worries of bulls, especially in the case of the relatively weaker coins.

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Bitcoin and most of the largest altcoins remained stable during the selloff, and BTC recaptured the $10,000 level quickly after trading as low as $9600 overnight. The initial rally topped out near $10,400, and the coin is trading back near the $10,000 level, as the bullish momentum faded away somewhat.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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That said, we expect the uptrend to continue even if the correction could still carry Bitcoin lower. Further strong support is found between $9000 and $9200, while targets are ahead at $11,300, $13,000, and $14,250.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum showed strength during the bounce again after yesterday, together with the early leaders of the rally, and although the coin dipped below the $845 level in the second half of the session, the signs remain positive for bulls. Support levels are now found at $780, $740, $625 and $575, while resistance is ahead near $910 and $1000.

(more…)

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Pre-Market: Stocks Refuse to Fall Even as China Takes Over Key Insurer

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Although it should have been a very quiet week in China, thanks to the New Year celebrations, the recent surge in volatility and the plunge in equities didn’t pass without consequences in the key market. Just shortly after effectively shutting down the Chinese version of the Volatility Index (VIX) (presumably to calm the markets…), one of the main actors of the monstrous financial web, Anbang, of the country had to be taken over to avoid a systemic event and stop the “creative” financial engineering that involved criminal activity (the shadow of 2008).

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China will likely need many more duck-tapes like this one if it wants to stop the largest credit bubble in human history to collapse, but for now, the solution could work. Equity futures edged higher since yesterday’s volatile close, and as the major US indices are holding up well, not far off last Friday’s highs, our bearish short-term view might have to be revised.

Nasdaq 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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As we discussed before, the long-term uptrend is intact, and we expect at least a re-test of the highs even if we are in a large-scale top formation, but we thought that the technical damage caused by the crash three weeks ago would require more healing.

We are not turning bullish just yet, but today’s session could finally decide if we the BTFD-crowd is strong enough to turn the tide after the choppy drift lower this week. We are still focusing on the Nasdaq, as the broader market seems to be following the lead of the tech benchmark, and a move 6850 (in the Nasdaq 100 futures, and still the 2735 level in the S&P) would be a very positive sign for bulls.

DAX Index, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The German DAX index is also showing some tentative short-term relative strength although it remains almost 10% below its all-time high, and it remains a strong negative divergence to be monitored.

Forex Markets Quiet

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The main pairs are trading in a choppy narrow range today after the strong move in the Yen and the drop in the USD yesterday. US Treasury Yields are edging lower today, helping the calm in equities and currencies, but on a bearish note, commodity currencies failed to rebound so far, and they were providing good signals since the crash. Day-traders should note that the Canadian Dollar will likely be very active again, with the Canadian CPI report coming out pre-market.

To sum the outlook up, we are still leaning on the risk-off side here regarding the short-term outlook, but we wouldn’t bet the farm on that, as there are mixed signals before the weekend.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 115 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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