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The Harder You Try

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Watching the images come in from Spain over the weekend it’s difficult to get over the shock. Government forces in black riot gear firing rubber bullets and beating the crowds back with batons. Men in masks forcefully entering polling stations and violently confiscating ballot boxes.

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These are not the scenes we’re used to, not in Western Europe. The Prime Minister of Spain was quick to defend the actions of his Police force but by doing so he has played right into the hands of the Catalonian separatists. Every time he uses the term “illegal” to describe the referendum people are reminded about who makes the laws.

Polls from one week ago showed the chances of this referendum voting against independence. However, seeing an elderly citizen beaten with a stick has a way of swaying public opinion.

The separatists are now prepared to declare their own independence in the coming days. After all, now that the world has just seen a clear demonstration of their reason for wanting independence they have the upper hand and would be foolish not to press the advantage.

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Sometimes the harder you try to stop something the likelier it is to happen.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

Muted Reaction

Gold as a Hedge

Crypto Dash

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of October 2nd. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you’re prepared to lose.

Market Overview

All things considered, the stock markets are doing quite well. Most major indices surged into the closing bell on Friday and are even opening the weeks with some gaps higher.

The only exception is the ESP35 in Spain, which did open with a gap down and though it did go down in the first few moments of trading has largely recovered already.

As we’ve discussed in the past, the stock markets used to be a good barometer for risk and an event like we saw over the weekend would have a tendency to push things down. However, due to central bank interference in the markets, this risk metric is now broken and European stocks will keep going up as long as they are supported by the ECB.

Gold has dropped almost $10 an ounce since opening last night. The world’s favorite precious metal has also ceased to be a barometer of market sentiment and is simply reacting to the strength in the US Dollar.

In this short-term graph, we can see that each sharp move down in gold is matched with a surge in the USDOLLAR (green line).

Many portfolio managers are still advising to store a percentage of your assets in gold on low leverage as a hedge against the USD weakness that we’ve been seeing since Trump took office. So the lower prices may provide a few excellent entry points for this strategy over the coming days or possibly weeks.

Crypto’s make another dash

Bitcoin and the crypto market is having a good start to the week. After a long weekend of mostly nothing, BTC has busted through $4300 a coin early during the Asian session this morning with volumes coming mainly from Japan and South Korea.

The next point of resistance on the chart is $4,500 (dotted yellow line). If we get beyond that it’s clear skies to the all time high of $5,000.

Going the other way we can see the rising support (green) line has already passed the $3000 mark.

eToro is very proud to announce that we have recently added the option to trade Dash!

This unique cryptocurrency is currently the sixth most valuable network with a total market cap of $2.4 Billion. Dash is a champion of online payments and even allows for small amounts to be sent completely anonymously.

Looking at the chart, we can see the trend is clearly up. However, there is some room for it to fall on in the near term.

Let’s have an amazing week ahead!!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.
The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



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Analysis

Cryptocurrency Analysis: Altcoins Slide as Bitcoin Rally Pauses

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All of the major coins are trading lower today after a bearish weekend, as altcoins are still underperforming Bitcoin, with the market leader holding up well near its all-time high. BTC is back below the $6000 level after surpassing our long-term target last week, but it’s still well within the rising trend, despite the overbought long-term picture.

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The coin found support near the $5800 level, although it spiked as low as $5600 in the bearish environment. While we advise investors to wait until the next correction with new positions, traders could still bet on a rally to new highs as long as BTC remains in an uptrend. Support levels below $5800 are found near $5400 and $5000.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Altcoins are trading well below their respective all-time highs, as capital has been flowing towards Bitcoin in recent weeks, but most of the major coins are still in long-term uptrends, with only ETC looking suspiciously week. Dash is the best performing currency of the day, as it surged off the $265 support, while Monero, Litecoin, and NEO are also among the relatively strong coins. Ethereum hit a one-month low below the $285 support, while Ethereum Classic, Ripple, and IOTA are all performing weaker than the broad market. Let’s see the short-term charts of the altcoins.

(more…)

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Cryptocurrencies

Trade Recommendation: Stellar

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The price bounces from SMA50 which is a support line for the market. MACD lines support upward movement. Also we can draw a pennant chart pattern which also confirms further upward movement. If the price breaks the resistance line of the pennant, this pattern will be realized as a continuation pattern. It will give us an additional confirmation of the upward movement. Pending orders for buy should be placed at 0.035000 level with stop orders at 0.028000 level. The main profit target should be at 0.048000 level. The part of trade volume can be left for the higher target at 0.070000 level. If you don’t use leverage, recommended trading volume for this trade is up to 5% from your deposit.

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Market: STRUSD
Buy: 0.035000
Stop: 0.028000
Profit Targets: 0.048000

The trading signal is based on Poloniex chart.

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Cryptocurrencies

Trade Recommendation: Lisk

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A new attempt to catch a trend reversal. The price diverges with MACD and it gives us a buy signal on the falling market. DMI allows to open long trades. We should place pending orders for buy above the previous high at 0.000840 level. Stop orders must be placed below the support at 0.000680 level. Profit targets are 0.001200 and 0.001400 levels. The part of trade volume can be left for long run. If you don’t use leverage, recommended trading volume for this trade is up to 5% from your deposit.

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Market: LSKBTC
Buy: 0.000840
Stop: 0.000680
Profit Targets: 0.001200 and 0.001400

The trading signal is based on Bittrex chart.  

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Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



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