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The Harder You Try

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Watching the images come in from Spain over the weekend it’s difficult to get over the shock. Government forces in black riot gear firing rubber bullets and beating the crowds back with batons. Men in masks forcefully entering polling stations and violently confiscating ballot boxes.

These are not the scenes we’re used to, not in Western Europe. The Prime Minister of Spain was quick to defend the actions of his Police force but by doing so he has played right into the hands of the Catalonian separatists. Every time he uses the term “illegal” to describe the referendum people are reminded about who makes the laws.

Polls from one week ago showed the chances of this referendum voting against independence. However, seeing an elderly citizen beaten with a stick has a way of swaying public opinion.

The separatists are now prepared to declare their own independence in the coming days. After all, now that the world has just seen a clear demonstration of their reason for wanting independence they have the upper hand and would be foolish not to press the advantage.

Sometimes the harder you try to stop something the likelier it is to happen.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

Muted Reaction

Gold as a Hedge

Crypto Dash

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of October 2nd. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you’re prepared to lose.

Market Overview

All things considered, the stock markets are doing quite well. Most major indices surged into the closing bell on Friday and are even opening the weeks with some gaps higher.

The only exception is the ESP35 in Spain, which did open with a gap down and though it did go down in the first few moments of trading has largely recovered already.

As we’ve discussed in the past, the stock markets used to be a good barometer for risk and an event like we saw over the weekend would have a tendency to push things down. However, due to central bank interference in the markets, this risk metric is now broken and European stocks will keep going up as long as they are supported by the ECB.

Gold has dropped almost $10 an ounce since opening last night. The world’s favorite precious metal has also ceased to be a barometer of market sentiment and is simply reacting to the strength in the US Dollar.

In this short-term graph, we can see that each sharp move down in gold is matched with a surge in the USDOLLAR (green line).

Many portfolio managers are still advising to store a percentage of your assets in gold on low leverage as a hedge against the USD weakness that we’ve been seeing since Trump took office. So the lower prices may provide a few excellent entry points for this strategy over the coming days or possibly weeks.

Crypto’s make another dash

Bitcoin and the crypto market is having a good start to the week. After a long weekend of mostly nothing, BTC has busted through $4300 a coin early during the Asian session this morning with volumes coming mainly from Japan and South Korea.

The next point of resistance on the chart is $4,500 (dotted yellow line). If we get beyond that it’s clear skies to the all time high of $5,000.

Going the other way we can see the rising support (green) line has already passed the $3000 mark.

eToro is very proud to announce that we have recently added the option to trade Dash!

This unique cryptocurrency is currently the sixth most valuable network with a total market cap of $2.4 Billion. Dash is a champion of online payments and even allows for small amounts to be sent completely anonymously.

Looking at the chart, we can see the trend is clearly up. However, there is some room for it to fall on in the near term.

Let’s have an amazing week ahead!!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.
The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 142 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




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Altcoins

Crypto Market Falls in Installments; Bitcoin and XRP In Lockstep; Small Alts Pump

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The cryptocurrency market continued to fall on Tuesday as $2 billion left the global cap in just fifteen minutes. Major altcoins and recent gainers took the brunt of the hit, while Bitcoin and XRP avoided the worst and continued to trade in lockstep fashion.

A handful of small-cap alts avoided gravity with double-digit pumps, but for how long? After the global market surged 45% in December, the current correction threatens to return the market to the $100 million valuation which was struck as recently as last month.

BTC & XRP Align

The top two coins at the top of the crypto market cap continue to trade together on Tuesday, similar to how BTC and ETH used to for so long.

While BTC and XRP only lost value in the 2-3% range, Ethereum’s losses were more pronounced, sinking 7.6% over the day. Such was the case across many major alts, including Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Bitcoin SV (BSV) and Neo (NEO).

Despite the $2 billion fall across the market in just fifteen minutes, Bitcoin remained within the $3,600 range after falling to $3,620. Earlier in the day BTC traded as high as $3,720, marking a 2.7% reduction.

Overall market sentiment may have cooled today after news that BitMEX was closing U.S user accounts. Many believe the firm was pressured by the SEC directly, although no comment has made as of yet. Some estimates suggest United States users account for around 15% of BitMEX’s entire user base.

XRP meanwhile lost just over 3% on Tuesday – dropping to the $0.32 range. However XRP’s stubbornness to drop in price is matched by its lack of upward momentum. Whereas TRX has gained over 100% since December lows, and ETH currently sits at 50% above this time last month, XRP has gained just 14% in the same time period.

Small Caps Pump

A handful of small to mid cap tokens continued to climb during Tuesday’s dip. Wax (WAX), Stratis (STRAT) and Aeternity (AE) defied gravity double-digit surges between 10% and 20% in strength.

Wax (WAX) was the best performer from the top hundred over twenty-four hours, climbing 22% from the daily low of $0.034038 up to $0.041834. A major drop off shortly afterwards down to the $0.038 range capped a tumultuous day for the gaming token.

Daily trades rose 580% throughout the day, from $275,000 up to $1.7 million, thanks in part to the 55% of trades coming from KRW markets.

Wax is EOS-based and focuses on blockchain gaming collectibles, and frequently scores abnormally high on independent blockchain activity rankings. Read this introductory article to find out more about the Wax project.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 123 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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Altcoins

Tron Price Analysis: TRX/USD Looks Set to Give Up $0.02000 Territory Again

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  • TRX/USD under heavy selling pressure late on Tuesday, dropping over 7%.
  • Bears are gunning for another retest of vital support, seen above a breached pennant patterns structure.

TRX/USD has been under heavy selling pressure on Tuesday, nursing chunky losses at the time of writing of 7%. Bears remain well in the driver’s seat in the latter stages of the day, with momentum picking up pace to the downside. The bulls lost much wind behind their sails on 10th January, this coming after enjoying a strong period in a run to the north. TRX/USD from 4th January – 10th January had gained a massive 75%, breaking out of a bullish pennant pattern structure. It also managed to briefly extend above a known area of supply, which exacerbated the upside pressure.

TRX/USD daily chart.

The above-described move saw the price print its highest level seen since 31st July 2018. Shortly after this high print, a big wave of selling kicked in. As a result, a very bearish daily candlestick was produced on 10th January. Daily sessions since this have closed in the red, apart from 14th January. TRX/USD managed to receive strong support on top of the breached pennant, providing some brief relief after the reversal was well underway. Despite the current trend south, news flow around the Tron foundation continues to be plentiful and upbeat.

OKCoin Supports TRX

As reported by the CCN team, OKCoin announced it has listed TRX on its trading platform. This coming via the exchange’s Medium blog today. OKCoin detailed that “starting today, authorized OKCoin customers can deposit TRX, and starting on January 17th they’ll be able to trade TRX against USD, BTC, and ETH.” Of note, the OKCoin platform was founded by the same people behind OKEx; however, OKCoin primarily focuses on traditional swaps and allows for bank deposits. In addition, OKCoin accommodates U.S clients, whereas OKEx do not.

Justin Sun Welcomes New Partner ABCC Exchange

ABCC Exchange, a cryptocurrency exchange platform, announced it is partnering with the Tron Foundation. The company tweeted, “ABCC is the 1st exchange that will list TRX 10 tokens. We are one of the top exchanges with great security and user interface. Stay tuned!” On the back of this, Tron founder Justin Sun replied, “ABCC is truly an awesome platform that has witnessed great development. We are glad to partner with ABCC as it’s the first exchange listing TRX10 tokens”.

Technical Review – TRX/USD

Given the current downside momentum, eyes are on another retest the breached pennant pattern structure. Where the two trend lines cross, support will be sought here, which could see the $0.02000 territory come under threat. Should the bears manage to force a breach, then a prior action demand zone will be called into play, within the $0.01700 price region.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 106 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Coins Retreat After Rally Attempt

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While yesterday the major cryptocurrencies recovered their weekend losses and bounced back above their prior lows, the bounce got halted before changing the short-term technical setup. As the world is focused on today’s key Brexit vote, trading volumes are once again very low, but the lack of bullish follow-through is a warning sign for traders here even considering the low level of trading activity.

We haven’t seen signs of a developing leadership in recent days, with correlations remaining high and with the top coins failing at the first major levels of resistance for now. That said, should the coins hold above yesterday’s lows and push above consolidation range, the formation of a bear-trap pattern is still possible even as odds still favor the continuation of the bear market.

In light of the short- and long-term setups, traders and investors should still stay away from entering new positions, with our trend model still being on sell signals on both time frames for the majority of the top coins.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While the breakdown in Bitcoin got bought yesterday, the bounce failed to reach the $3850 level and the most valuable coin is still hovering near the $3600 level, leaving both the neutral short-term, and of course, the long-term sell signal intact in our trend model.

A move above $3850 would be a positive sign for bulls, but odds still favor a negative outcome and a likely test of the $3000 level in the coming weeks, so even short-term traders should still away from entering new positions here. Further, weaker support is found near $3250, with resistance ahead between $4000 and $4050, and near $4450.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Although Ethereum briefly topped the $130 level after plunging below the $120 support, a failed breakdown pattern hasn’t been confirmed in the previously leading coin, and the short-term sell signal remains in place in our trend model.

With the bearish long-term picture in mind, and with the oversold short-term momentum readings now cleared, the outlook for the coin remains negative, even as the resumption the counter-trend rally is still a possibility here. Further support below $120 is found between $95 and $100, while resistance is ahead at $160 and near $180.

Altcoins Still Stuck in Downtrends Across the Board

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin’s rally stooped near the upper boundary of last week’s consolidation range, and although the coin is safely above the key $30-$30.50 support zone, the momentum of the bounce is waning. The bearish long-term forces still seem to be dominant, and the coin is well below the primary resistance level near $34.50, so our trend model remains on sell signals on both time-frames. Further strong resistance ahead near $38 and $44 and with support is found near $26 and $23.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple experienced a brief period of relative stability after the weekend sell-off, but that didn’t change the bearish overall picture for the coin, and technicals are still hostile for bulls here. The coin continues to hover around the $0.32 price level, but we still expect a move below $0.30 in the coming weeks with a test of the bear market lows being the most likely scenario.

Another strong support level is found near the $0.26 level, with resistance ahead near $0.3550, $0.3750, and in the key long-term zone between $0.42 and $0.46.

XMR/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero is also among the weaker majors and although it bounced back together with the broader market, it failed to sustainably recapture the $45 level, and it remains in clear short- and long-term downtrend. Our trend model is o sell signals on both time-frames as well, and the re-test of the bear market low just below $38 seems very likely in the coming weeks.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 441 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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