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The First Markets Have Successfully Resolved on Augur

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Augur, the decentralized prediction market startup, has successfully resolved its first prediction markets.

$20,000 in Ethereum is allegedly being sent out to early users of the platform, who used it without 100% certainty that they would get their money back.

At this point, it’s important to step back and give our readers a quick recap of Augur and decentralized prediction markets in general.

Augur: An Overview

Augur at its core is a decentralized prediction market platform that utilizes the Ethereum blockchain.

A prediction market is defined by the ability for a user to bet on the outcome of future events in order to get monetary prizes. The less likely an event is to occur, the bigger the reward you can earn for predicting its success.

For instance, this analyst used a centralized prediction market called Predictit to win $6k in the 2016 election betting Donald Trump would win the election.

In this system, before the event outcome was determined, users could buy and sell “yes” or “no” bets between .01 cents or $1. If the outcome resolved yes, all yes shares were redeemed for $1. If the event resolved no, all yes shares were redeemed for $0.

Augur differs from centralized services such as Predictit by making use of “The Wisdom of the Crowd” from predictors on the platform.

They use these predictors to create real-time predictive data that’s oftentimes more accurate than the leading experts.

So how does this work in practice?

Creating Markets

You need to spend a small amount of Ethereum tokens to create an Augur market. Markets can be anything from “Will the price of Bitcoin hit $20,000 before the end of 2017?” to “Will Jesus Christ return in 2018?”

When you create a market, the user sets the taker and maker fees (the cost to buy and sell shares on the books). Taker fees must be between 1.0% and 12.5%. Maker fees also can’t be more than half of the taker fee. As the market creator in this instance, these are the fees you would receive when the market closes.

Although this is the current fee structure, discussion on the official Stack Exchange page suggests that this will be changing.

At some point in the near future market, creators will instead set a creator fee, and there will no longer be maker/taker fees. The creator fee is taken from the rewards of the traders that hold winning positions and are given to the market creator.

As a market creator, the goal is to keep the settlement fees low enough to incentivize people to bid using your market while also being high enough to cover the initial Ethereum cost you spent to create the market.

Besides creating markets, Augur users can also buy and trade shares that represent the odds that the event in a given market will occur. For example, you see a market, “Will Stellar Lumens reach $1k by 2018?”

Because Coinbase recently stated they were considering adding STellar Lumens to their platform, this market intrigues you. You might be fairly sure that it’ll reach $1k before the end of the year, so you put in a bid to buy 50 shares at 0.6 ETH a share.

Shares are worth anywhere between 0 and 1 ETH. The higher the price you buy a share for, the more likely you believe that the event will happen.

Augur Traders

There are two ways to make money as an Augur trader. With fluctuating share prices, it’s theoretically possible to buy positions at a low cost and sell them higher as sentiment changes. Real world catalysts may also cause an event to be more or less likely to happen over time.

You can also earn money if you predicted an event correctly and hold shares when the market closes. The amount of your payout equals:

Payout = Number of shares * Price / Number of ticks

The number of ticks is the number of possible price points between the minimum and maximum prices in a market.

You also need to pay settlement fees from each of your winnings. The settlement fees include the creator fee set by the market creator and the reporting fee used in the Decentralized Oracle System utilized by Augur. The larger your earnings, the higher the fees you’ll have to pay.

The REP token powers this Augur Decentralized Oracle System. You can stake REP to report on the outcome of events for the different markets.

When a market closes, you must report on the outcome of the event and put up a certain amount of REP to back your claim. If the event hasn’t occurred yet, you are asked to mark it “Invalid” seeing that you won’t be able to report on it.

You have 27 days after an event closes to submit a report. If you report the same outcome as the majority of reporters in your market, you’ll receive your REP back plus a portion of the reporting fee. The reporting fee uses the following formula:

Reporting Fee = Current Reporting Fee * ( Augur Open Interest * 5 / REP Market Cap )

The more REP that you stake when submitting a report, the greater proportion of the reporting fee you earn.

Making things slightly more complicated, markets can also be reported on by a designated reporter. The market creator delegates a designator reporter to report a proposed outcome for the market within 3 days after the market closes.

As a reporter, you are allotted an additional 3 days to challenge the proposed outcome of the designated reporter. If there’s no challenge put forth, then the market enters the next reporting round by skipping the usual 27-day reporting phase.

You also need to stake some REP in order to challenge a proposed outcome. The REP that you stake is called a dispute bond. If your challenge is successful and the proposed outcome is reversed, you’ll get the funds from your dispute bond back.

Augur started in 2014. Vitalik Buterin, known famously as the creator of Ethereum, is notably an advisor to Augur.

Augur ICO

Augur did court some early controversy.

They originally held an ICO in August 2015 in which they distributed 8.8 million REP tokens. There are and only will ever be 11 million REP tokens in circulation.

REP traded between $1.50 and $2.00 (~0.0047 and ~0.0050) immediately after the ICO.

The price has had three significant spikes in its history since this point.

The first occurred in March 2016 as a result of their beta release.

The second occurred in October 2016 when investors received their REP tokens from the ICO. This caused the price to quickly increase before dumping as exchanges added support for the tokens.

The third and largest price increase occurred in 2017 on December 19th in which the price rose to over $100 before settling in on the $90 range. There was no significant news that seemed to cause this increase.

Some people have speculated as a result that this spike was a result of a classic “pump and dump” while others think that it may have been insiders trading on the rumor that the token will soon be added to Coinbase.

However, as more and more decentralized applications start providing real value an utility to users, the market prices of their tokens may start appearing closer to the true value of their worth.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Tron Price Analysis: TRX/USD Looks Set to Give Up $0.02000 Territory Again

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  • TRX/USD under heavy selling pressure late on Tuesday, dropping over 7%.
  • Bears are gunning for another retest of vital support, seen above a breached pennant patterns structure.

TRX/USD has been under heavy selling pressure on Tuesday, nursing chunky losses at the time of writing of 7%. Bears remain well in the driver’s seat in the latter stages of the day, with momentum picking up pace to the downside. The bulls lost much wind behind their sails on 10th January, this coming after enjoying a strong period in a run to the north. TRX/USD from 4th January – 10th January had gained a massive 75%, breaking out of a bullish pennant pattern structure. It also managed to briefly extend above a known area of supply, which exacerbated the upside pressure.

TRX/USD daily chart.

The above-described move saw the price print its highest level seen since 31st July 2018. Shortly after this high print, a big wave of selling kicked in. As a result, a very bearish daily candlestick was produced on 10th January. Daily sessions since this have closed in the red, apart from 14th January. TRX/USD managed to receive strong support on top of the breached pennant, providing some brief relief after the reversal was well underway. Despite the current trend south, news flow around the Tron foundation continues to be plentiful and upbeat.

OKCoin Supports TRX

As reported by the CCN team, OKCoin announced it has listed TRX on its trading platform. This coming via the exchange’s Medium blog today. OKCoin detailed that “starting today, authorized OKCoin customers can deposit TRX, and starting on January 17th they’ll be able to trade TRX against USD, BTC, and ETH.” Of note, the OKCoin platform was founded by the same people behind OKEx; however, OKCoin primarily focuses on traditional swaps and allows for bank deposits. In addition, OKCoin accommodates U.S clients, whereas OKEx do not.

Justin Sun Welcomes New Partner ABCC Exchange

ABCC Exchange, a cryptocurrency exchange platform, announced it is partnering with the Tron Foundation. The company tweeted, “ABCC is the 1st exchange that will list TRX 10 tokens. We are one of the top exchanges with great security and user interface. Stay tuned!” On the back of this, Tron founder Justin Sun replied, “ABCC is truly an awesome platform that has witnessed great development. We are glad to partner with ABCC as it’s the first exchange listing TRX10 tokens”.

Technical Review – TRX/USD

Given the current downside momentum, eyes are on another retest the breached pennant pattern structure. Where the two trend lines cross, support will be sought here, which could see the $0.02000 territory come under threat. Should the bears manage to force a breach, then a prior action demand zone will be called into play, within the $0.01700 price region.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 106 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Coins Retreat After Rally Attempt

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While yesterday the major cryptocurrencies recovered their weekend losses and bounced back above their prior lows, the bounce got halted before changing the short-term technical setup. As the world is focused on today’s key Brexit vote, trading volumes are once again very low, but the lack of bullish follow-through is a warning sign for traders here even considering the low level of trading activity.

We haven’t seen signs of a developing leadership in recent days, with correlations remaining high and with the top coins failing at the first major levels of resistance for now. That said, should the coins hold above yesterday’s lows and push above consolidation range, the formation of a bear-trap pattern is still possible even as odds still favor the continuation of the bear market.

In light of the short- and long-term setups, traders and investors should still stay away from entering new positions, with our trend model still being on sell signals on both time frames for the majority of the top coins.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While the breakdown in Bitcoin got bought yesterday, the bounce failed to reach the $3850 level and the most valuable coin is still hovering near the $3600 level, leaving both the neutral short-term, and of course, the long-term sell signal intact in our trend model.

A move above $3850 would be a positive sign for bulls, but odds still favor a negative outcome and a likely test of the $3000 level in the coming weeks, so even short-term traders should still away from entering new positions here. Further, weaker support is found near $3250, with resistance ahead between $4000 and $4050, and near $4450.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Although Ethereum briefly topped the $130 level after plunging below the $120 support, a failed breakdown pattern hasn’t been confirmed in the previously leading coin, and the short-term sell signal remains in place in our trend model.

With the bearish long-term picture in mind, and with the oversold short-term momentum readings now cleared, the outlook for the coin remains negative, even as the resumption the counter-trend rally is still a possibility here. Further support below $120 is found between $95 and $100, while resistance is ahead at $160 and near $180.

Altcoins Still Stuck in Downtrends Across the Board

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin’s rally stooped near the upper boundary of last week’s consolidation range, and although the coin is safely above the key $30-$30.50 support zone, the momentum of the bounce is waning. The bearish long-term forces still seem to be dominant, and the coin is well below the primary resistance level near $34.50, so our trend model remains on sell signals on both time-frames. Further strong resistance ahead near $38 and $44 and with support is found near $26 and $23.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple experienced a brief period of relative stability after the weekend sell-off, but that didn’t change the bearish overall picture for the coin, and technicals are still hostile for bulls here. The coin continues to hover around the $0.32 price level, but we still expect a move below $0.30 in the coming weeks with a test of the bear market lows being the most likely scenario.

Another strong support level is found near the $0.26 level, with resistance ahead near $0.3550, $0.3750, and in the key long-term zone between $0.42 and $0.46.

XMR/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero is also among the weaker majors and although it bounced back together with the broader market, it failed to sustainably recapture the $45 level, and it remains in clear short- and long-term downtrend. Our trend model is o sell signals on both time-frames as well, and the re-test of the bear market low just below $38 seems very likely in the coming weeks.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 441 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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EOS Price Analysis: EOS/USD Back in Unsettled Territory, as Price Runs into Sellers Again

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  • The EOS/USD bulls are unable to sustain any upside momentum following a breach of critical support.
  • Near-term supply is eyed in the early $2.5000 region. A break above would likely open the door for another retest of the big $3.0000.

The EOS price was seen creeping lower again in the early part of trading on Tuesday. This comes after a big jump to the upside seen in the second part of the session on Monday. EOS/USD had gained a chunky double-digits, around 12%, at the close of the daily. Buyers came in after the low print on Sunday 13th at around $2.25. This was within a market demand zone, tracking from $2.25-$2.35, having supported the price on occasions in December and January.

Recap: Big Breach of Critical Support

EOS/USD daily chart.

As a reminder, EOS/USD throughout its most recent bull run, which was seen from 6th December right up to 9th January, was well-supported. An ascending trend line could be observed, providing necessary comfort to the bulls. However, all runs must come to an eventual end, and the bears smashed through this support on 10th January. Given the break through this vital area, it exacerbated the move to the downside. The price had dropped a heavy 22%, taking a big blow after a strong run.

Barriers Blocking Bulls

The bulls have been cut short for now, not being able to have sustained that momentum from the session on Monday. Trading has been extremely choppy since 19th December, via the daily chart view, highlighting a real lack of consistency in either direction. A consecutive streak longer than two days from either bear or bull camp hasn’t happened since the run higher in mid-December. This demonstrates just how mundane and non-committed market participant are for now.

In addition to the last statement above, further technical levels and areas continue to plague direction. To elaborate, there are more areas that the price must deal with now in comparison to the smooth bull run higher seen in 2017. Separately, if looking at 2018, the bears generally had an easy ride south. This is thanks to the cryptocurrency instruments being so young still in age.

Key Near-term Levels

For the bulls to see greater upside, a break of near-term supply within the early $2.5000 region will need to push prices forward. This should open the door to a fast move to see a retest of the breached ascending trend line. In proximity to this is the psychological $3.0000 mark, which has proven to be a huge barrier for the bulls. To the downside, the mentioned demand area of $2.35-$2.25 is critical, and a failure to hold will be very punishing. Lastly, EOS/USD would be subject to a move sub-$2.0000, where support can be eyed. As a further worth case, then $1.5500 to be retested, the December low.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

 

 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 106 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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