Connect with us

Cryptocurrencies

The First Markets Have Successfully Resolved on Augur

Published

on

Augur, the decentralized prediction market startup, has successfully resolved its first prediction markets.

$20,000 in Ethereum is allegedly being sent out to early users of the platform, who used it without 100% certainty that they would get their money back.

At this point, it’s important to step back and give our readers a quick recap of Augur and decentralized prediction markets in general.

Augur: An Overview

Augur at its core is a decentralized prediction market platform that utilizes the Ethereum blockchain.

A prediction market is defined by the ability for a user to bet on the outcome of future events in order to get monetary prizes. The less likely an event is to occur, the bigger the reward you can earn for predicting its success.

For instance, this analyst used a centralized prediction market called Predictit to win $6k in the 2016 election betting Donald Trump would win the election.

In this system, before the event outcome was determined, users could buy and sell “yes” or “no” bets between .01 cents or $1. If the outcome resolved yes, all yes shares were redeemed for $1. If the event resolved no, all yes shares were redeemed for $0.

Augur differs from centralized services such as Predictit by making use of “The Wisdom of the Crowd” from predictors on the platform.

They use these predictors to create real-time predictive data that’s oftentimes more accurate than the leading experts.

So how does this work in practice?

Creating Markets

You need to spend a small amount of Ethereum tokens to create an Augur market. Markets can be anything from “Will the price of Bitcoin hit $20,000 before the end of 2017?” to “Will Jesus Christ return in 2018?”

When you create a market, the user sets the taker and maker fees (the cost to buy and sell shares on the books). Taker fees must be between 1.0% and 12.5%. Maker fees also can’t be more than half of the taker fee. As the market creator in this instance, these are the fees you would receive when the market closes.

Although this is the current fee structure, discussion on the official Stack Exchange page suggests that this will be changing.

At some point in the near future market, creators will instead set a creator fee, and there will no longer be maker/taker fees. The creator fee is taken from the rewards of the traders that hold winning positions and are given to the market creator.

As a market creator, the goal is to keep the settlement fees low enough to incentivize people to bid using your market while also being high enough to cover the initial Ethereum cost you spent to create the market.

Besides creating markets, Augur users can also buy and trade shares that represent the odds that the event in a given market will occur. For example, you see a market, “Will Stellar Lumens reach $1k by 2018?”

Because Coinbase recently stated they were considering adding STellar Lumens to their platform, this market intrigues you. You might be fairly sure that it’ll reach $1k before the end of the year, so you put in a bid to buy 50 shares at 0.6 ETH a share.

Shares are worth anywhere between 0 and 1 ETH. The higher the price you buy a share for, the more likely you believe that the event will happen.

Augur Traders

There are two ways to make money as an Augur trader. With fluctuating share prices, it’s theoretically possible to buy positions at a low cost and sell them higher as sentiment changes. Real world catalysts may also cause an event to be more or less likely to happen over time.

You can also earn money if you predicted an event correctly and hold shares when the market closes. The amount of your payout equals:

Payout = Number of shares * Price / Number of ticks

The number of ticks is the number of possible price points between the minimum and maximum prices in a market.

You also need to pay settlement fees from each of your winnings. The settlement fees include the creator fee set by the market creator and the reporting fee used in the Decentralized Oracle System utilized by Augur. The larger your earnings, the higher the fees you’ll have to pay.

The REP token powers this Augur Decentralized Oracle System. You can stake REP to report on the outcome of events for the different markets.

When a market closes, you must report on the outcome of the event and put up a certain amount of REP to back your claim. If the event hasn’t occurred yet, you are asked to mark it “Invalid” seeing that you won’t be able to report on it.

You have 27 days after an event closes to submit a report. If you report the same outcome as the majority of reporters in your market, you’ll receive your REP back plus a portion of the reporting fee. The reporting fee uses the following formula:

Reporting Fee = Current Reporting Fee * ( Augur Open Interest * 5 / REP Market Cap )

The more REP that you stake when submitting a report, the greater proportion of the reporting fee you earn.

Making things slightly more complicated, markets can also be reported on by a designated reporter. The market creator delegates a designator reporter to report a proposed outcome for the market within 3 days after the market closes.

As a reporter, you are allotted an additional 3 days to challenge the proposed outcome of the designated reporter. If there’s no challenge put forth, then the market enters the next reporting round by skipping the usual 27-day reporting phase.

You also need to stake some REP in order to challenge a proposed outcome. The REP that you stake is called a dispute bond. If your challenge is successful and the proposed outcome is reversed, you’ll get the funds from your dispute bond back.

Augur started in 2014. Vitalik Buterin, known famously as the creator of Ethereum, is notably an advisor to Augur.

Augur ICO

Augur did court some early controversy.

They originally held an ICO in August 2015 in which they distributed 8.8 million REP tokens. There are and only will ever be 11 million REP tokens in circulation.

REP traded between $1.50 and $2.00 (~0.0047 and ~0.0050) immediately after the ICO.

The price has had three significant spikes in its history since this point.

The first occurred in March 2016 as a result of their beta release.

The second occurred in October 2016 when investors received their REP tokens from the ICO. This caused the price to quickly increase before dumping as exchanges added support for the tokens.

The third and largest price increase occurred in 2017 on December 19th in which the price rose to over $100 before settling in on the $90 range. There was no significant news that seemed to cause this increase.

Some people have speculated as a result that this spike was a result of a classic “pump and dump” while others think that it may have been insiders trading on the rumor that the token will soon be added to Coinbase.

However, as more and more decentralized applications start providing real value an utility to users, the market prices of their tokens may start appearing closer to the true value of their worth.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5 (0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.8 stars on average, based on 15 rated posts




Feedback or Requests?

Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Altcoins

Waves Coin Spikes 21% Before Levelling Off; Gets Cold Storage Treatment

Published

on

Waves is one of the few coins to have marked up clear growth for the day, with a 21% spike coming in the early hours of Monday morning before the price eventually dropped and evened out.

Waves Price Peaks Overnight

Late on Sunday, August 12th, WAVES coins were priced at $1.89 after climbing from a fifteen month low of $1.64 on August 8th. Over the course of the early hours, the coin underwent a 21% surge which carried it to a valuation of $2.30 – a price not seen for almost two weeks.

Over the course of the day a rebound occurred and the price is back down to the $2.00 range. That’s a huge drop over the course of the day, but it still leaves Waves in the green over twenty-four hours, with net gains of around 6%.

Volumes peaked just as the sell off from the $2.30 level finished up, with $22 million WAVES trades passing through the exchanges today. That’s almost a monthly high for the coin, with $23 million only coming once in the last thirty days, on July 18th.

BTC Dominance

Given the relative strength of Bitcoin compared to most popular altcoins today, it’s unsurprising that the most abundant trading pair is WAVES/BTC, with traders taking advantage of the recent year long low that Waves hit on August 8th.

To be precise, the recent low of $1.64 hasn’t been touched since the middle of May, 2017. That’s a 15-month low for Waves, and given the actions of buyers in the last twenty-four hours, it seems to be a valuation deemed worthy of saving. In the short term at least, as evidenced by the 15% sell-off once Waves hit the $2.30 mark earlier this morning.

Cold Storage Treatment

The Waves platform seems to be growing its own fruit after the announced addition of Waves to Cold Storage Coins (CSC) today. CSC is a provider of cold storage ‘coins’ – essentially hardware wallets in the form of metal cryptocurrency coins.

CSC were recently launching their own token on the Waves platform – Organic Token ($ORGT) – when the team decided to give Waves the cold storage treatment. As said Rob Gray, CEO of CSC:

“So, we were working on Organic Token and we realized no one in the cold storage space had stepped up to support Waves.”

Waves marketing head, Phil Eryushev celebrated the development, stating:

“Besides scalability and speed, ease of use has always been among the top priorities for Waves. Solutions provided by Cold Storage Coins will make user experience at our platform even more fascinating.”

Waves recently revamped their DEX – decentralized exchange – and the platform saw an increase in the number of users shortly afterwards. Today the Waves Decentralized Exchange is only the tenth most popular source of WAVES trades, with $314,000 worth emanating from there – around 1.85% of the daily total.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5 (0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.4 stars on average, based on 36 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Altcoins

Crypto Psycho: Fear Could Be Our BFF

Published

on

Crypto prices continue to confuse.  For all the logic related to supply and demand, the reality these days continues to be that prices are being determined by emotion.  

The fundamental news these days is mixed. For example, take todays mention of Bitmain, one of the most valuable cryptocurrency companies, is expecting a September filing of an IPO for as much as $18 billion. That would eclipse even Facebook back in 2012.  The buzz swirling around Bitmain is about more than just crypto. Even so, $18 billion makes a loud and positive statement about investor interest.

On the other side of the digital coin, we have declarations from guys like Ken Bianco, who happens to be part of the US Treasury Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence.  Last week he spoke in threatening terms of how the US intends to enforce its AML/KYC regulations virtually everywhere in the world. If this sounds a little bit like an infamous German gentleman with an odd looking mustache, you have your history right.

In between these two extremes, of course, there has been lots of information each day that correlates closely with theoretical supply and demand for crypto, none of which has made a bit of difference as crypto prices continue to tumble.

Nevertheless, an objective point of view holds that there is a disconnect between what is happening in reality and crypto prices.

So unlike last year when prices were rising for no other reason than the fear of missing out (FOMO), today they are falling in the face of the fear of losing all (FOLA).  Maybe it’s fear that is the key to the future.

FOLA Could Be Our Friend

On many occasions we have mentioned how important traditional investors have used relative value.  We continue to believe that global stock and bond markets are overvalued using metrics like price earnings ratios and other financial measures.  While quantitatively speaking, this point is absolutely right, it hasn’t resonated. Since the beginning of the year, for example, investors in the Nasdaq Composite has enjoyed a 13% gain.

This gain comes even though Facebook, the fourth biggest stock in the cap-weighted Nasdaq Composite, has been a dud.  By comparison, over the exact time last year investors in the Nasdaq Composite experienced a 12% gain on the way to a bountiful 25% full year return. Overall, these folks have had very little reason to be unhappy, or fearful.

Tipping Point Could Come From Trump

Credit Datatrek for keeping a thumb on the pulse of the outside world.  Here are some insights from a recent poll on the fears of institutional money managers.  The two most important issues in late March were: unpredictable political events in Washington DC and Trade/tariff disagreements between the US and China.  Some 70% of respondents were very concerned or somewhat concerned about these issues.

Since then, things have only become more critical.  Washington’s confrontational foreign relations strategy is shaking global currency exchange markets.  In the last two weeks the Russian Ruble has lost 12% against the US Dollar. At the same time the US Dollar has increased over 40% against the Turkish Lira.  

While it can be argued that Turkey is of little importance to the global monetary system, Russia is not. Turkey plays a key role in the Middle East and any instability in that area is enough to strike investor fear that is reflected in energy, inflation and currency markets.

In earlier times, this scenario pointed investors in the direction of gold.  This is not happening. At the time of this writing, gold had just broken through $1,200 having fallen 8% this year.  In the face of the Turkish situation, this signals a loss in confidence for gold in a region of the world with a historic close connection to the metal.

Only Theory So Far  

Now if a strong correction were to take place in stock prices or an equally strong rally in crypto, there would be evidence of investors taking advantage of the relative value here. Unfortunately, at this moment that is not taking place. Bitcoin prices are down marginally but sellers continue to pound most altcoins. Until this changes, crypto prices are being driven down by FOLA.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
2 votes, average: 5.00 out of 52 votes, average: 5.00 out of 52 votes, average: 5.00 out of 52 votes, average: 5.00 out of 52 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5 (2 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.4 stars on average, based on 95 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Analysis

Crypto Update: Ethereum Plunges Below $300 as Bitcoin Fails at $6500

Published

on

Despite a weak bounce during the weekend, the cryptocurrency segment continues to trade under heavy selling pressure, with the top altcoins till underperforming Bitcoin. Ethereum is the most obvious laggard, and it fell below the $300 level today, hitting yet another 9-month low and extending the structural bear market with another swing low.

Almost all of the majors are below or near their recent lows, but Bitcoin continues to show relative strength, and a few of the recently weak coins, notably Monero and Litecoin, are trading slightly above their swing lows. The other most important bearish currency, Ripple is also trading at new lows, and with that in mind, we remain defensive on the coins, as despite the deeply oversold momentum readings, there is still no sign of a developing leadership in the segment.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

All eyes are still on Ethereum, as the second largest coin is pushed lower relentlessly ever since its break-down below the $400 level last week. The coin continued to lead the way lower so far today, and with the break below the $300 level, the market cap of Ethereum is now just $30 billion, while the total value of the market is close to $200 billion again. The coin is now just above the $275-$280 support zone and it remains on sell signals on both time-frames, with resistance ahead at $335 and $360.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

With still no signs of even a short-term bottom in altcoins, Bitcoin is still the only hope for crypto bulls, as the coin continues to clearly hold above the crucial $5850 level. BTC is also trading above the weekend lows, even though it failed at the $6500 level during the bounce and it is now back below the $6275 support.

While the short-term downtrend is still intact and the sell signal is in place, today’s strength could be a start of a trend change, should the coin maintain its resilience. Further resistance is still ahead at $6750 and $7000, while initial support is at $6000, with the next major support zone below $5850 found between $5000 and $5100.

Sellers Still in Control but First Signs of Exhaustion Appear

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Although the bearish trend in altcoins is still very strong, and most of the relatively weak majors are also confirming today’s break-down, Litecoin is slightly outperforming the likes of Dash, NEO, and IOTA. While the current relative stability is still no reason to buy the coin, and the short-term sell signal remains intact, further signs of strength would be positive for the whole segment.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple’s technical situation is still dire, as the coin failed to hold up above $0.30, with no signs of a bottom despite the strong support in the $0.30-$0.32 zone, and the deeply oversold momentum readings. Also today, XRP plunged below its previous low, and it’s now trading just above $0.28. The next major support zone is found near $0.26, and for the sell signals on both time-frames are intact.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
3 votes, average: 5.00 out of 53 votes, average: 5.00 out of 53 votes, average: 5.00 out of 53 votes, average: 5.00 out of 53 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5 (3 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.6 stars on average, based on 316 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

5 of 15 Seats Available

Learn more here.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

A part of CCN

Hacked.com is Neutral and Unbiased

Hacked.com and its team members have pledged to reject any form of advertisement or sponsorships from 3rd parties. We will always be neutral and we strive towards a fully unbiased view on all topics. Whenever an author has a conflicting interest, that should be clearly stated in the post itself with a disclaimer. If you suspect that one of our team members are biased, please notify me immediately at jonas.borchgrevink(at)hacked.com.

Trending