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Analysis

The Damage Done

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The total damage from the WannaCry virus has been counted. See, the thing most people don’t know about Bitcoin is that it’s only pseudo-anonymous. The nature of the blockchain allows everyone to see all transactions clearly, that’s what makes it effective.

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So when the WannaCry pirates asked for ransom in bitcoin, they actually had to publish their wallet ID being used to receive the transaction. Overall, three wallets were used. For your convenience, I will publish them here. Please don’t send any money to them!!

13AM4VW2dhxYgXeQepoHkHSQuy6NgaEb94
12t9YDPgwueZ9NyMgw519p7AA8isjr6SMw
115p7UMMngoj1pMvkpHijcRdfJNXj6LrLn

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You can see every transaction made to and from these wallets on blockchain.info. The folks at bitinfocharts.com were kind enough to compile this graph showing the total balance of all three.

Needless to say, cybercrime fighters around the world will be watching these wallets very closely and if these hoodlums ever try to convert their ill-gotten gains to real money there will be jail time in their future.

The law can be very forgiving to white collar criminals. The people responsible for the 2008 crisis are still walking free. Hackers, not so much. When you add that these guys interfered with hospital operations and government offices… dun dun dun.

Stay safe people. Don’t click any links unless you know exactly what it is.

Mati

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of May 18th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Market Overview

The damage done to the stock market by President Trump, on the other hand, is still being assessed.

The Trump-appointed deputy attorney general, Rod Rosenstein, has selected Ex-FBI director Robert Mueller to act as a special investigator into the alleged Trump-Putin connection.

For those wondering if Trump tried to have Russia interfere with the US elections, this video should make it perfectly clear. What you’re seeing there is candidate Trump publicly asking Russia to hack into the then Secretary of State’s personal Email.

Sure, those Emails were probably reeking with abuse of power and corruption to the highest degree, but I digress.

The latest drama in Washington was too much for even the stock markets to ignore. The sound of the opening bell on Wall Street yesterday was met with a 180 point drop in the Dow Jones and by the end of the day, the damage totaled about 1.78% for the big index.

Virtually all sectors got smashed…

Volatility is finally up off the floor with the VIX index closing at 15.50. It’s far from the 22 points we saw during the US election and the 25 points seen on the night of the Brexit referendum but at least we’re off the all-time record low, which was set last Monday, May 8th below 10 points.

Oil seems to have lost control of this market. The inventories did in fact show supplies in the US declining slightly, which caused a nice spike up on Crude Oil. However, the price has already returned to about the same place it was before the announcement and as we saw in the pie chart above, the energy sector was down by the end of the day as risk off sentiment prevailed in the market.

In addition to the stocks, commodities, currencies, and bonds that have been damaged by the White House, the expectation of a speedy rate hike has dropped as well.

For the past two weeks, the market was pricing in a 90 to 100% chance that the Fed will hike rates on June 15th. This morning, that number was down to 82%.

Now, 82% is still enough for the Fed to make a move, but certainly if Trump doesn’t improve his image and quick, that number along with the US Dollar could certainly move lower.

Eye on Cryptos

The pace of growth for the cryptocurrencies has remained steady. Over the past 10 days, the total market cap of all digital assets has risen on average by $1 Billion per day.

Until yesterday, most of that new money was going straight into Ripple. In this next chart, we can see the market cap of Ripple rising from $5 Billion to a peak of more than $16.5 Billion yesterday.

However, over the last 12 hours, it is coming down fast and allowing room for other assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum to take some of their market-share back.:)

Let’s keep an eye on it over the next 6 to 8 hours to confirm or reverse the trend.

Have a spectacular day ahead.

This content is for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or an investment recommendation.
Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you’re prepared to lose.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. D1DT

    May 18, 2017 at 5:14 pm

    Thanks Mati. Very informative overview of the market!

  2. corporate_citizen

    May 18, 2017 at 8:59 pm

    Can Bitcoin address mixers and exchanges such as Shapeshift track transactions at the behest of law enforcement?

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Hits First Correction Target as Volatility Reigns Supreme

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The violent correction that created a full-on panic in the cryptocurrency segment continues to unfold in a rather orderly way from a technical standpoint, reflecting the extreme nature of the preceding rally. That said, the percentage losses in some of the coins are huge, and the collapse of Bitconnect accelerated the process, spreading uncertainty among investors, and sentiment quickly got bleak.

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Bitcoin remains in the center of attention, and the most valuable coin finally breached the $10,000 level today, causing another strong wave of liquidation in the majors, that could be the base of a more durable bottom, and a consolidation in the coming days after the crazy last couple of days.

The coin is now oversold from a short-term perspective, and although further losses are likely before the end of the cycle, given the still only neutral long-term momentum readings, a counter-trend move is possible in the coming days. Below, $9000, strong support levels are still found at $8200 and near $7650.

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BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Altcoins got slaughtered in the two-day crash with Ripple leading the way lower, while Ethereum also lost its relative strength amid the broad sell-off and its recent trendline break. ETH got close to the next major support level at $740 during today’s move, and as the short-term momentum is now oversold, a bounce to the zone around $1000 could be ahead. We still expect the correction to continue in the token, as the long-term momentum remains overbought, with key support at $625 and near $575.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple fell as low as the $0.85 support level during the crash, and although the coin rebounded above $1 afterward, it remains 70% off its recent all-time highs. Long-term investors could already accumulate small positions on the short-term sell-offs, although the correction will likely continue, and a prolonged consolidation phase might also be ahead. Key support levels are now found at $0.85 and $0.68, while resistance is ahead at $1.25.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

(more…)

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Market Update: Bitcoin at $10,000, Ripple at $1, Ethereum below $1000 as Carnage Continues

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Yesterday’s China induced technical breakdown led to an unmitigated disaster in the crypto segment, as all of the majors crashed, erasing hundreds of billions of market cap in the process. The collapse of the alleged Ponzi scheme of Bitconnect added insult to injury and caused another wave of selling in late trading, driving the price of Bitcoin to $10,000, a bit earlier than expected.

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BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The most valuable digital currency rebounded as much as 15% after the late-session crash, but the selling pressure remained strong and today BTC briefly traded below yesterday’s low, with most of the majors holding up above the crash low.

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That said, the sell-off is unlikely to be over and volatility is probably here to stay for the week, with violent swings in both directions. The coin is still likely to push lower, with a possibly lengthy bottoming phase, so a quick recovery to the record highs is unlikely, but strong support is found below $10,000 at $9200, $8200, and $7650.

Traders should be aware of the elevated risk in short-term positions here, while long-term investors could slowly accumulate positions on the sell-offs, as the coins are headed to oversold territory.

A Little Perspective

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Broad Correction Enters Next Phase

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The overbought BTC-led correction that has been the dominating technical process in the cryptocurrency segment in the last month or so continued in earnest today, amid the intensifying regulatory steps concerning the sector. The three-week-long consolidation that followed the initial mini-crash concluded with a sharp sell-off overnight rearranging the long-term charts, while likely kicking off another volatile period.

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While most of the crash lows held up today in early trading in the majors, especially in the case of the late leaders like Ethereum and NEO, some of the relatively weaker coins are already trading below the December minimums. We expect most of the majors to follow Dash and LTC, the weakest of the largest coins, lower and trade below the previous lows, as sentiment will likely swing to a bearish extreme.

The $11,300 level has been in the center of attention throughout the session today and the most valuable coin experienced heavy trading around the level as expected. As the daily MACD is still in neutral territory, the coin could be in for another leg lower, but after the 40% correction and the rather lengthy consolidation, investors could be looking for entry points during the move near the key support levels at $10,000, $9000, and the stronger levels at $8200 and $7700.

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BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

As Ethereum is in a different part of its cycle the long-term momentum readings are still overbought, and that could mean a more protracted correction for the second largest coin. That said, following a multi-month consolidation like the one in Ethereum before, we still expect the token to outperform BTC from a long-term technical standpoint. ETH is now below the short-term trendline, and it’s likely to dip below $1000, and the prior top at $850. Further key levels are found at $740, $625, $575, and near $500.

ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Let’s see the outlook for the other major altcoins after today’s bloodbath.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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