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Technical Analysis: Ripple Breaks Out Amid Ethereum Upgrade

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The major cryptocurrencies are on the rise once again today, with Ethereum’s major Byzantium update being in the center of attention. The second largest blockchain network has been updated through a hard fork, as usual, and the successful lock-in led to an initial surge in the price of the ETH token. The digital currency recovered above the $330 level after Sunday’s pull-back, but so far it failed to durably break-out above the prior swing high just above $340.

With the long-term momentum readings still being neutral, the coin could be on the verge of testing the $380 resistance soon, with the all-time high near $400 being the last major technical obstacle. Below $330 further support is found at $300 and $285.

ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Bitcoin is also on the rise after dipping below $5500 during the weekend, and the most valuable coin is joined in the rally by Ripple, which most likely finished its short-term correction and could be ready for another leg higher. The other majors are also generally higher, with NEO and IOTA being ahead of the pack, while the rest of the market trading near unchanged. As the broad rally seems to be well and alive, let’s see how the short-term charts are shaping up.

Bitcoin

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

BTC continues to trade in a short-term correction after last week’s break-out to new all-time highs, and the coin’s price is right at the $5700 level after hitting a low just above $5400 during the weekend. The MACD indicator is returning to neutral territory, and another leg higher in the strong uptrend is possible in the coming days, with a likely test of the $6000 long-term target. As the currency is getting long-term overbought, the risk of a deeper correction is rising, but the trend is intact, with key support levels below $5400 at $500 $4650 and $4400.

 

Litecoin

LTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Litecoin surged past the key $64 resistance after Friday’s break-out, and the coin is now back in the rising long-term trend channel, as we expected. LTC  is now back near the key level after yesterday’s pull-back, but the short-term trend is intact and a rally towards $75 is likely in the coming period, as daily MACD is in neutral territory, with support levels below $56 at $51 and near the $44 level.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash is trading in a narrow consolidation pattern just above $300, within the broader correction formation that has been dominant for more than a month now. The coin is still bullish regarding the long-term picture, but short-term traders should wait for a move before entering new positions, as further sideways price action is possible. Resistance is ahead at $330, $360, and $400 while support is found at $300 and $265.

Ripple

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

XRP moved out form its short-term consolidation pattern and rocketed higher to the $0.30 level today in early trading as we expected, but for now, the key resistance zone held the coin back. Above $0.30 another strong level is found at $0.32, but given the strength h of the trend and the bullish long-term picture, a break above that level is likely. Support is now found at $0.26, $0.24 and around the $0.22 level.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic is still relatively weak compared to the other majors, and it remains stick below the short-term resistance level at $12.50. With further strong resistance ahead around the $13.50 level, bulls have a tough road ahead, but the long-term picture is still positive for investors. Support is still found at $11 and $9, while more supply is expected at $16 and $18.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero is still below the key $100 level despite breaking out above the declining trendline last week. The neutral long-term momentum points to a coming test of the $125 level as well, as the coin completed a deep, but orderly correction. Strong support is found near $80 and $68, while the all-time high is ahead just above $150.

NEO

NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO finally found support within is volatile correction pattern around the $27 level, and the coin looks ready to bounce back above the $30 resistance, amid the broad rally in the segment. The $25 level is still the primary support with another strong level below that near $22, while above $30 resistance is ahead at $34 and $40.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA is still struggling to get back above the $0.45-$0.48 support/resistance and, and although the long-term picture remains encouraging, traders should wait with new positions until a short-term uptrend is established. Resistance levels are ahead at $0.56, and $0.64, while support below $0.45 is found near $0.35.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 297 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Divergence Deepens as Altcoins Fall, Bitcoin Flat

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The unusual discrepancy between BTC and the rest of the cryptocurrency market continued today, with the top 10 coins all losing ground with the exception of Bitcoin itself. Tuesday’s surge, which carried the segment to $300 billion in total market cap quickly fizzled out, at least as far as the major altcoins are concerned, but the largest digital currency is still holding on above the strong $7000 and $7350 support/resistance levels.

Altcoins are on short-term sell signals according to our trend model, but Bitcoin is still on a buy signal as the declining trend was broken by the break-out that remains intact, despite the segment-wide weakness.

Given the mixed, but one-sided setup, and the lack of bullish follow-through, odds still favor a bearish outcome, and traders should remain cautious with new positions here, even in BTC, the positive outlier. A broad trend change would require a meaningful leadership, and until that develops, a test of t eh June lows remains likely, with the possibility of new lows in the coming week as well.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While Bitcoin failed to durably stay above the $7500 level, bulls successfully defended the support zone near $7350, despite the overbought short-term momentum readings. The coin is well above the line-in-the-sand $7000 level and the long-term support near $5850 that was in danger just one week ago.

Although the altcoin weakness makes BTC’s rally suspicious, the short-term bullish pattern is intact, as is the buy signal in our trend model. Further support is found at $6750, and $6500, while primary resistance is still ahead at $7650.

Selling Pressure Apparent in Altcoins

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

All intraday rally attempts have been sold so far in most of the major altcoins, and Ethereum is just holding up above primary support at $450 despite the rally in the beginning of the week. The coin is on a short-term sell signal, and a test of the June lows is likely after the failed break-out. Strong resistance is ahead at $500 and between $555 and $575, while support is found at $420, $400, $380, and $360.

XMR/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While Monero has been holding up relatively well in the last couple of days after getting stuck below the $150 level during the Tuesday surge, but the coin is still among the structurally weak majors, being on a long-term sell signal. As the other bearish leaders, NEO, LTC, and Dash are also trading below key long-term levels, we expect the coin to fall back below the $125 support and likely test the June lows in the coming weeks.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The third largest coin Ripple is already testing the $0.45 level after drifting lower ever since the Tuesday rally, and as its relative weakness is still clear, a break below that level seems to be imminent. Below that, the crucial long-term support zone near $0.42 could stop the decline of XRP again, but a move under that could trigger a long-term sell signal.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 297 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Forex Update: Boring Means Long-Term Sustainability for EUR/INR

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Billionaire investor George Soros once said, “If investing is entertaining, if you’re having fun, you’re probably not making any money. Good investing is boring.” As an experienced investor, I couldn’t agree more. There’s a lot of waiting and sitting involved but that’s how money is made in investing. The Euro/Indian Rupee (EUR/INR) pair seems to be the perfect embodiment of this quote.

Looking as far back as 1999, it appears that EUR/INR has been in an unstoppable bull run since the second half of 2002. If you invested in the pair a decade and a half ago, you would have more than doubled your money. Chances are you didn’t, but don’t fret because you can always invest today. EUR/INR looks as strong today as it did back then.

In this article, we show how EUR/INR is looking strong on all counts despite being boring.

Healthy Ascending Channel on the Daily Chart  

EUR/INR dropped to as low as 67.9819 on April 10, 2017 and it was nothing but blue skies since. It is trading within an ascending channel as it generates higher highs and higher lows in a sustainable manner. The ascending channel looks healthy, too, as the trading range is not significantly contracting or expanding.


Daily chart of EUR/INR

If you look at the technical indicators, everything is fairly clear. EUR/INR rallies when it flashes oversold readings. On the other hand, it corrects when it is overbought. You won’t find excitement here and that’s good news for long term investors.

Concluded Corrective Wave on the Weekly

EUR/INR started showing signs of weakness in September 2013 when it posted a shooting star weekly candle. The ensuing pullback drove the pair down to the 65 levels in March 2015 (A-wave). The market has not visited that price area since. It managed to generate a bullish higher low setup at 68 (C-wave). This was a clear signal to investors that the correction was over.

Weekly chart of EUR/INR

With a higher low in place, EUR/INR took out resistance of 76. The new support level was tested and retested before the pair mounted a strong rally. On top of that, we can see a hidden bullish divergence on the weekly RSI, hinting that the uptrend is in a good shape.

Even in the weekly chart, the market is not pulling any surprises. There are no false breaks and no shakedowns. You don’t have to look close to see where the market is headed. EUR/INR is boring and that’s why it is strong.

Major Support Line on the Monthly Intact

Conventional wisdom says to buy low and sell high. The problem with this is that you don’t really know when is the market low. The market can go down as there’s always the possibility that a key support can break. That’s just not the case for EUR/INR.

Monthly chart of EUR/INR

Buying low is fairly simple in this case. All investors have to do is to wait for the price to hit the long-term support. Investors can be confident in doing so because the trend line has been intact for over 15 years. More importantly, it bounces every time it hit the support. It’s not really exciting but it works.

Bottom Line

A famous billionaire trader once said that good investing is boring, and I agree. Look at the charts of EUR/INR and you’ll see why boring investing is good.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.6 stars on average, based on 201 rated postsKiril is a financial professional with 4+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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Pre-Market: China Tries to Support Markets as Global Stocks Slide

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Yesterday’s risk-off shift continued today in early trading with nervous and choppy trading in Asia and Europe, as global financial markets are still haunted by trade war fears and emerging market weakness. The major US indices rolled over after another period of apparent relative strength, with the Nasdaq being the most robust market once again, while most of the key European benchmarks continue to lag behind.

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Chinese assets are still in focus before the weekend, as the Yuan’s recent steep devaluation sparked fears of a credit meltdown in the country. With the largest credit bubble in human history casting its shadow on China, some analysts think that with Trump’s trade war, the bug finally found its windshield and the bubble already started to burst.

USD/Yuan, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

All eyes are on the USD/Yuan pair as Chinese authorities are reportedly intervening in the market of the currency, and most likely local equities as well, trying to prevent a serious run on the most important assets.

With the Chinese stock market already in a bear market, and the Yuan trading at fresh 12-month lows against the Dollar, it might be a bit late to stop the slide, but the intervention could cause spectacular short squeezes.

Italy also made headlines today during the European session, as Italian government bonds got slammed lower, as the future of the new finance minister is uncertain, with another round of political turmoil possibly ahead for Europe’s most vulnerable country.

Unicredit (UCG), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Looking at the charts of Italian banks, it’s clear that the spring turmoil had a lasting effect on the financial system, as Unicredit is on the verge of hitting a new low, and the other large players also remain under pressure, in part explaining the general weakness in European equities.

Europe Still Far Behind amid Mixed Economic Numbers

USD/CAD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The economic calendar is almost empty today with regards to the key markets, as the Canadian Retail Sales and CPI reports are the most important releases. The Canadian Dollar rebounded when the USD entered a correction June, but now the currency edging lower again, as the weakness in commodities and the Greenback’s rally are taking their toll. New highs are likely in the USD/CAD pair in the coming weeks, although strong resistance is just ahead at 1.33.

Commodities are little changed today after yesterday’s volatile session, as the bounce in China helped to stabilize the segment. Notably copper is back above the key $2.70 level, while WTI crude oil is trading at $68 per barrel again, and gold is hovering around $1225.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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