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Technical Analysis: Litecoin Follows Bitcoin Higher as Market Tops $165 billion

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Bitcoin’s surge is all the rage today in the cryptocurrency segment, as the most valuable coin took out the previous all-time high near the historic $5000 level, and breached the $5300 level for a new record. The digital currency has enjoyed another great run thanks to the fading worries regarding another hard fork, and the exponential growth of SegWit transactions in the system. Today, as a sign of improving sentiment, even Jamie Dimon took a step back after his widely cited criticism of cryptocurrencies.

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The coin is clearly in short- and long-term uptrends, and although the short-term picture is overbought, further upside is likely after the break-out. Support levels are now found near $5000, $4650 and $4400, while the most likely long-term target is ahead at $6000.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Litecoin is also up substantially today following its recent weak performance, while last week’s leader Ripple continues to trade in an orderly correction. Ethereum is also up along with most of the majors, with only NEO and IOTA drifting meaningfully lower. As BTC is stealing the show right now, some under-the-radar moves may happen in altcoins, so let’s see the detailed short-term analysis.

Ethereum

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum is also up today, but only by a few percents, and it remains below the $315 level that has been limiting the upside since the China-crash. The coin is looking bullish regarding the long-term picture, and it held up well above the $285 support during the altcoin sell-off, so we expect a move above primary resistance soon. The currency faces further resistance near $380 while support is at $300, $285, and $250.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin bounced off the zone above the $51 support/resistance level today, but it remains below the $56 resistance that could be the next major hurdle for the coin’s price. The digital currency is now on a short-term buy signal thanks to the relative strength, and the long-term rising trend could resume. The coin also faces strong resistance $64, while below $51 strong support is at $44 and at $38.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash is still stuck below the $300 level, inside the dominant correction pattern. The long-term picture remains bullish for the coin, and we expect a move out of the consolidation in the coming weeks. The currency faces resistance near the $330 and $360 levels, and above that above $400 with support below at $265.

Ripple

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

XRP settled down somewhat after a very active period, as it is drifting lower currently in a short-term correction pattern. The $0.26 level remains in focus as we expected, and a re-test of the $0.24 level is possible before the resumption of the underlying trend. Further support levels are now found at $0.22, and $0.20, with the primary target above $0.26 being the $0.30 price level.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic is experiencing some buying today, but the coin remains stuck in a short-term downtrend after the recent lackluster performance. Short-term traders should still wait with openinng new positions, at least until a break above $12.50, with the crucial zone around $13.50 still ahead as an obstacle, and support levels found at $11 and $9.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero is getting close to the declining trendline and the coin has been supported by quiet buying just below the $90 level, as a sign of long-term stability. The currency still looks bullish form an investment standpoint and a new uptrend could already start in the coming week. XMR faces resistance near $100 and $125, with support at $80 and $68.

NEO

NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO is still in correction-mode after tripling off the China lows, and touching the $40 resistance in the process. The coin is hovering around the $30 support/resistance level, and although another test of the $25 level is possible, a move towards $40 is likely in the coming weeks. Primary support is ahead at $34, while support below $25 is found at $22.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA is testing the lower boundary of the key $0.45-$0.48 support zone, as it remains relatively weak amid the Bitcoin break-out. The coin is still expected to rally back towards the $0.64 level in the coming weeks. Below that, resistance is ahead near $0.56, while long-term support is at $0.35.

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Dow Leapfrogs 23,000 as IBM Beats Estimates

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Wednesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2560 0.13%
DAX 13043 0.35%
WTI Crude Oil 52.02 0.29%
GOLD 1284.00 -0.23%
Bitcoin 5435 -3.15%
EUR/USD 1.1793 0.23%

IBM surged higher today, as the company beat analysts’ expectations across the board, pushing the company’s shares up by more than 10% and helping the Industrial Average to a new all-time high yet again. The other major US indices kept on grinding higher as well for most of the day, despite the strong overvaluation, with the Volatility Index (VIX) still hovering around the 10 level. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 finished virtually unchanged after a late-session sell-off, while small caps outperformed in the mixed environment.

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DOW 30 Index, Daily Chart Analysis

Global stocks also edged higher, with the Nikkei still leading the way, although the momentum of the move is still weak. The Yen’s weakness was the most apparent trend in currency markets, while the Pound rebounded well, despite the persistent Brexit worries, with the Dollar giving back some of its recent gains compared to its major peers. Gold also remained under pressure after retreating back below $1300 this week, while crude oil rallied on a bigger than expected, hurricane-related decline in US production.

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Gold 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Cryptocurrencies

The major coins had a hectic and bearish session, especially in early trading, as Bitcoin’s overbought conditions coupled with Ripple’s sudden downturn led to a segment-wide decline. Ethereum continued to slip, as the Byzantium-related optimism faded away, but it remained well above the $285 level, and recovered above $300 towards the end of the session. NEO and IOTA still have a negative correlation with the rest of the market, as the two coins surged higher in early trading and gave back their gains during the late-day rebound.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Technical Picture

The DAX closed on a marginal new all-time high again, but the lengthy momentum divergence in the MACD indicator suggests that the steep uptrend continues to be in jeopardy. The low-volatility drift carried the benchmark above the 13,000 level, but a correction towards at least the 12,850 level is likely in the coming days, with another support level at 12,650 serving as a longer-term target. As the long-term uptrend is clearly intact, bears shouldn’t go all-in here but bulls should consider exiting their positions and wait until a correction to trade the long side again.

DAX, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Wednesday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
3:30 EUROZONE Mario Draghi Speaks
3:30 UK Average Earnings 2.2% 2.1% 2.1%
14:30 UK Claimant Count 1,700 3,200 -2,800
14:30 UK Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% 4.3%
16:00 CANADA Manufacturing Sales 1.6% -0.1% -2.6%
14:30 US Building Permits 1.22 mill 1.25 mill 1.27 mill
16:00 US Housing Starts 1.13 mill 1.18 mill 1.18 mill
15:45 US Crude Oil Inventories -5.7 mill -4.7 mill -2.7 bill

Key Economic Releases on Thursday

Time, CET Country Release Expected Previous
2:30 AUSTRALIA Employment Change 15,200 54,200
2:30 AUSTRALIA Unemployment Rate 5.6% 5.6%
4:00 CHINA GDP 6.8% 6.9%
4:00 CHINA Industrial Production 6.4% 6.0%
10:30 UK Retail Sales -0.1% 1.0%
14:30 US Unemployment Claims 245,000 243,000
14:30 US Philly Fed Index 22.2 23.8
15:45 US Chicago PMI 58.6 58.9

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Dumps and Pumps amid Broad Volatile Correction

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The crypto segment has been in turmoil today, as the most valuable coins turned significantly lower, leading to a mini-panic, but they rallied strongly off their slows as buyers stepped in the second half of the session.

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Bitcoin fell as low as $5100, for a 15% correction top-to-bottom, but it is now trading near the prior short-term support at $5400. As the long-term picture remains overbought, investors shouldn’t open new positions here, but traders could play a likely move towards the $6000 level, although we still advise small sizes, as correction risks remain elevated.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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The other majors were also declining in early trading, led by Ripple, with only NEO and IOTA, holding up well during the sell-off.  Both of the latter coins faded away as the rest of the market recovered, but Ripple continued to suffer. For now, the long-term bullish picture is unchanged for the segment, but BTC’s overbought correction could still cause volatility in the coming period. Let’s see the short-term charts after the busy session.

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Dollar Rally Continues amid Fed Chair Confusion

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Tuesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2554 -0.09%
DAX 12995 -0.07%
WTI Crude Oil 51.53 -0.66%
GOLD 1287.00 -1.22%
Bitcoin 5652 -0.86%
EUR/USD 1.1751 -0.38%

Yesterday’s trends are mostly continued in financial markets, such as the low-volatility levitation in stocks and the slightly more active trading in currencies with the apparent Dollar strength. The Great British Pound continued to be under pressure amid the amplified Brexit-related worries, but most of the other majors also lost ground to the Greenback.

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The Dollar rally has been fueled by the rise in the odds of some of the hawkish Fed Chair candidates, while overall, the “race” for the positions looks more chaotic than ever. Interestingly, the long-end of the yield curve is refusing to follow the short-term moves, and without the effects of the Fed’s QE program, the yield curve would probably be inverted by now, signaling strong recession risks.

Dollar Index (DXY), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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The major stock indices are virtually unchanged yet again and even the previously surging Nikkei entered a consolidation, adding to the unusual October lull. Commodities have been quite active thanks to the Dollar’s vigor, with crude oil and gold both turning lower. Oil gave back most of yesterday’s gains as the Iraqi-Kurdish conflict turned out to be less violent than previously feared, and the brief rally fizzled.

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Cryptocurrencies

The major coins are having a mixed session at best, as yesterday’s rebound wasn’t durable, and most of the coins turned back lower again. That said, despite the recent choppy price action, the total market cap of the segment is close to its all-time high, even as only Bitcoin is trading near its own record price level.

The optimism regarding Ethereum major Byzantium upgrade wasn’t enough to lift the second most valuable coin today, and the price of the ETH token retreated below the key $330 level after touching $350 yesterday after the upgrade’s lock-in. Ripple and NEO have been among the most active majors today, but with opposing performances, as Ripple fell significantly after yesterday’s break-out attempt, while NEO defied gravity and jumped above the $30 level after a corrective period.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Technical Picture

The S&P 500 is grinding higher despite the overbought short-term momentum readings, and the benchmark is trading very close to its all-time high. The 2550 level is still in focus, but until volatility remains near record lows, the minuscule moves are unlikely to change the technical setup. While a sudden drop in prices could quickly negate the recent break-out, the consolidation could very well lead to further upside, as bulls remain firmly in control, despite the lofty valuation levels.

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Tuesday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
02:30 AUSTRALIA RBA Meeting Minutes
10:30 UK CPI 3.00% 3.00% 2.90%
11:00 GERMANY ZEW Sentiment 17.6 20.3 17
12:00 EUROZONE Final CPI 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
15:15 US Industrial Production 0.30% 0.40% 0.20%
15:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate 76.00% 76.20% 76.10%

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