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Technical Analysis: Litecoin Continues Surge as Bitcoin Tests Highs

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With the crypto world being focused on the historical futures launch, the major coins all enjoyed buying following a hectic weekend, and a volatile week as a whole. BTC itself got another boost from the widespread publicity and the volatile correction of the recent days ended, with the most valuable coin bouncing back towards its all-time high.

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While the long-term picture remains severely overbought, the short-term picture is not stretched and further gains are possible even amid the elevated correction risk. That said, investors should wait for a more favorable entry point to ad dot their holdings, while traders should control position sizes in the light of the long-term setup. Major support levels are now near $13,000, $11,300, and $10,000, with stronger levels still at $8200 and $7700.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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The major altcoins are all up today, but only Monero and Litecoin are still within short-term uptrends, and the segment as a whole is still dangerously overextended, and a deeper correction is very likely in the coming weeks. LTC continued its recent break-out, getting close to the $200 level, and joining the extremely overbought group regarding the long-term momentum, and triggering a long-term sell signal in our trend model. Key support levels are found $100 at $75 and $64, with a weaker primary level at $125.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum is trading in a broad range between $400 and $480 since spiking to $500 at the end of November, and the short-term momentum is still neutral, as the coin didn’t participate in last week’s frenzy. The long-term picture is less stretched than in the case of most majors, and we expect the coin to outperform during the next correction. Key support levels are still found below $400 at $380 and $350.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash is bouncing higher together with the market, although the short-term uptrend is broken, and given the stretched long-term picture, the coin remains prone for a deeper correction. A move below $600 is expected soon, and we still advise investors to wait for a more favorable risk/reward ratio. Further support levels are found at $500, $470, and near $410, with resistance ahead near $800.

Ripple

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple is still trading with a focus on the major support/resistance levels at $0.2250 and $0.26, while the coin remains relatively weak from an investment perspective, still being stuck well below the May highs. While the long-term setup is still encouraging, we expect further volatile range trading as the next correction unfolds in the segment. Further support levels are found at $0.20 and at $0.18, while crucial resistance is ahead at between $0.30 and $0.32.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic exited its steep short-term uptrend recently and with the extremely overbought long-term picture in mind, we expect a deeper correction, below the $23 level in the coming period. The short-term momentum is back to neutral but traders and investors should wait with opening new positions. Support is found below $23 at $18 while resistance is ahead at $30 and $32.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero is the only major in a clear short-term uptrend besides LTC and BTC and although the long-term momentum is still extremely stretched short-term gains are still possible. That said, investors should wait for a more favorable setup before adding to their holdings, with support levels at $240, $200, $180, and $150.

NEO

NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO is still trading in a broad consolidation pattern, while being neutral regarding the long-term picture. The $34 support/resistance level remains in focus, with key levels at $30 and around $40. With the long-term setup still being encouraging, we expect a rally towards the $50 level and the all-time high after a likely correction in the segment, and investors could use the short-term downswings to add to their holdings.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA is stuck below the short-term trendline after the recent stellar rally, showing relative weakness, and we still expect a deep correction in the coin in the coming weeks. Strong support is only found at $3 and $1.5, with potential Fibonacci support at $2.35.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 224 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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10 Comments

  1. MinerMatt17

    December 11, 2017 at 11:22 pm

    Good thing I sold when it hit 9,500 and you said it was going to correct…. I am not going to hold my breath for this massive correction. I think the analysis has to take into account he millions of new users that have gotten into the space in the last few weeks, and the amount of money starting to come in from institutional investors.

  2. saxonlucius

    December 11, 2017 at 11:47 pm

    I completely expected Litecoin to go up up and away…. I don’t believe its going to come back down either. Dash completely exceeded my expectations and it is staying very strong. I think that we are in a period in which everything is going to go up. I’m fairly sure Litecoin is going to continue on its upward trend, and as you have already mentioned, ZCash is more than likely on its way up. Monero doesn’t look like its going to come down. The last comment by MinerMatt, hit the nail on the head. The influx of people is driving up the prices to new levels. Bitcoin simply appears out of reach for most people when they see $15,000 for 1 Bitcoin, but Litecoin at $150 or $200 is more reasonable. I think we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg at the tail end of 2017. 2018 is more than likely going to blow everyone anyway. The influx of new people remains very small in comparison to what will happen in 2018.

  3. CoinWhale

    December 12, 2017 at 1:07 am

    I was thinking the very same thing. Trying to wait to buy at corrections may not be a strategy that we can keep using like we have in the past.

  4. Chris G

    December 12, 2017 at 1:11 am

    From Mates perspective it’s crazy for him not to encourage caution from technical analysis – but HODL does seem like a philosophy that works. My first trade under Mate’s advice, was litecoin at $29 – it just surged to $225

  5. Chris G

    December 12, 2017 at 1:17 am

    So pretty much xrp long term

    • saxonlucius

      December 12, 2017 at 3:42 pm

      Ripple will never soar like the others. Ripple is a different animal all together. All the Ripple ever, are already allocated. The creator of Ripple holds more than half of the Ripple, so even though he may not flood the market with Ripple to get rich quick, it’s always a possibility and Ripple is just not mined like the rest. Its built on a different philosophy. It may go higher, but not like Litecoin and the others.

    • saxonlucius

      December 12, 2017 at 3:43 pm

      Long term, I would say EOS. EOS is not talked about enough here. Steller is and it’s the precursor to EOS.

    • Chris G

      December 13, 2017 at 1:36 am

      *cough* never say never boys …

  6. DeadDuckWalking

    December 12, 2017 at 3:04 pm

    All the advices we got to sell BTC at 3k, 4k and look where we are now. The technical analysis is not working in Crypto’s current state. It might when the market gets more mature. For now I stick to my own advice and HODL. This market is almost impossible to time, so you lose more with short term trading than just buy and ride it out.

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Analysis

More Chance to Go Up for Litecoin

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Litecoin short term outlook is quite positive, while in a longer term, it’s somewhat mixed. Shortly, the digital coin may face a very strong resistance at $141, being currently priced at $140. As Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex, says, Litecoin already tried to test this level earlier this week, but did not succeed.

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In the mid-term Litecoin is trying to break out the current range, and in case it finally manages to break out $141 and stay above, it may go up to $168. Before reaching this target, however, another downtrend may be formed, with Litecoin plunging to the support at $114 again. If the bears succeed in breaking out this level, too, another sell-off target will be at $87.

Current outlook, however, is mostly positive, with the key support being at $114 and the key resistances at $141 and $168. The MACD on D1 is in its negatives, but is going up, issuing a buy signal, while the Stochastic is in the positive area and confirms its buy signal, already issued some time ago.

Fundamentally, Litecoin has got much support this week. The market started buying out the coin once the news on the token being listed at Korbit appeared. As the recent reports say, the crypto started being traded on Korbit yesterday, while withdrawal should be available starting today, Apr 19. This is important for Litecoin: first, Korbit is one of the oldest and most reliable exchanges in Korea; second, as we have already stated a few times, if the crypto becomes widespread across multiple exchanges, its liquidity gets boosted, while the accessibility simplifies the transaction processes.

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Korbit decided to hold a contest, with the top 6 LTC/KRW traders getting prizes in Litecoin (the winner gets LTC 50, the runner-up will walk away with LTC 25). Meanwhile, Litecoin being available on Korbit also helped the crypto to rise on Bitfinex.

Currently, Litecoin is one of the most volatile currencies, mostly because of it always being in the news, which does good to its promotion. As such, it was announced a few days ago that LTC would be used as a payment method, and TenX already started developing a prepaid card for that purpose.

By: Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Disclaimer
Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors' particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Bitcoin Prices and Whale Sightings: Evaluating the Latest Trends

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Bitcoin’s value has skyrocketed 20% over the past eight days, but some say the upward trajectory isn’t as linear as it should be given the length of the most recent correction. The market’s sudden gyrations have left us with only one explanation: the bitcoin whales are back.

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Whale Spotting

It has been reported that the so-called bitcoin whales (those who hold oversized positions in the digital asset) dumped $100 million worth of BTC in less than 24 hours. For example, the anonymous balance of wallet 3D2oetdNuZUqQHPJmcMDDHYoqkyNVsFk9r declined by 6,500 BTC on Tuesday, which is equivalent to $50 million. As a result, bitcoin fell more than $200 on the major exchanges in just a few minutes.

Just one day earlier, bitcoin’s third-biggest wallet shed 6,600 units of the virtual currency at an average price of around $8,026.

Interestingly, a whale may have been responsible for the initial spike in BTC just one week ago. As we reported, a large order on Bitfinex triggered the initial spike in BTC as prices crossed $7,000 on the exchange. For the next two days, bitcoin would surge double-digits to breach $8,000 for the first time since late March.

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Investors are also keeping tabs on a high-profile whale based out of Tokyo, Japan. Nobuaki Kobayashi is in the process of liquidating billions of dollars on behalf of Mt Gox creditors. At last check, the trustee had sold about $400 million in bitcoin for an average sales price of $10,105. He’s expected to offload another $1.9 billion.

Speculation Grows

While advocates of bitcoin’s long-term value have barely flinched amid the latest downturn, speculators all but disappeared from the market. A simple analysis of Google search trends also reveals that laypeople have been losing interest in digital currencies since early February.

All that could be changing.

Cryptocurrencies have added nearly $100 billion to their market cap over the past week, with bitcoin doing much of the work. This appears to have compelled bitcoin’s large owners to sell their assets for reasons that are not yet unclear.

Of course, the multiple selloffs could just be coincidence or a bet that future prices will fall again. In the eyes of leading analysts, the latter appears to be less likely.

The head of Pantera Capital, who rarely predicts bitcoin’s future and is thus never wrong when he does, recently told clients that the digital currency has already bottom. Appearing on CNBC’s Fast Money, Dan Morehead said bitcoin’s bear market was just about over and that prices would continue rising from here on.

That said, choppy trading for bitcoin is hardly unusual and has come to be expected in a market that still lacks maturity. Whales or not, recent moves have made it harder to gauge the strength of the recovery.

That’s the message Thomas Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors recently shared, according to Bloomberg.

“I think it feels off right now because, you know, we’ve been on a down trend since December, and now, even though the volatility hasn’t changed much, it’s hard to tell if bitcoin is trying to stage a recovery or if it’s continuing its down trend,” he said.

At the time of writing, bitcoin was valued at $8,175, having gained 3% over the past 24 hours.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 332 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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Recommendations

Trade Recommendation: The Travelers Group

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Technical Overview

  • On January 23, The Travelers Company’s stock jumped nearly 5% after releasing their 4Q17 earnings (violet arrow in Figure 1). Then, during the “Feb Correction”, the stock pulled back to wipe out the entire gain, and more, over a couple of trading sessions.
  • Since then, the stock has been trading within a 7.5% trading range ($133 – $143.50 trading range – orange horizontal lines). In comparison, the broader markets have been swinging by more than 10% after the Feb 9 low was set.
  • More recently, over the past month, the stock has traded within an even tighter trading range, finding support at $135 and resistance at $140. On one hand, a key resistance continues to push prices lower upon every retest (red trendline and arrows). On the other hand, the stock has bounced off of a 6-month support over half-a-dozen times (green trendline and arrows).
  • The stock has been a laggard over the last 8 trading sessions, while markets recovered significantly and broke above key resistance levels.

Figure 1. TRV Daily Chart

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Implications

  • The stock’s tight trading range has resulted in options selling at below 20% IV for some expiries.
  • A break below the 6-month support is expected to result in a swift leg down, especially if the $133 level gets broken immediately after that.
  • A break above the red trendline likely to have the stock retest $140.

Outlook

  • Neutral with a bearish bias while the stock is trading between the red and green trendlines.
  • Bearish if the stock breaks the green trendline (currently at nearly $136).
  • If the stock breaks the red trendline, outlook will remain neutral, however with a bullish bias, as the stock will likely move higher by at least $3-$4 to retest $140.

Trading Recommendation

  • Buy the May, strike 135 put for roughly $2.40 – $2.60 or short the stock once the green trendline is broken. Use a close below $136 for a confirmation.  At the time of writing, at 11:20 am EST on April 18, the put is trading at $2.40 and the stock at $136.05.
  • Target: Cover stock/sell put when the stock reaches $130.
  • Stop: Cover stock/sell put if the stock closes above the red trendline (currently at $137.95 and falling by roughly 25 cents/day).

Benefit of Recommended Trade

  • A play on both direction and volatility (in the case of the put purchase).
  • A sloping-down resistance used as a stop, resulting in an improving risk-reward profile of the trade as time goes by.

Disclosure: Have a small put position and may buy more contracts based on the trading recommendation’s guidelines.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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