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Technical Analysis: Ethereum, Monero, and Litecoin Jump as Bitcoin Goes Parabolic

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The stellar performance of Bitcoin continued today in early trading, as the most valuable coin got close to hitting $100 billion in market capitalization after breaching the $5900 price level. The coin turned volatile after the early surge, as it got extremely overbought short-term and briefly tumbled by as much as 10% before settling down slightly near $5700. The $6000 level is still ahead as a likely target, but the currency is now prone to a short-term correction, and the long-term picture is also looking more and more stretched. Key support levels are now found near $5000, $4650 and $4400.

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BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Monero joined the party today, with the second largest coin’s value passing the $30 billion mark again, while Litecoin finally leaving behind the $56 resistance. Monero is still stuck below the key $100 level, but it’s now above the previously dominant correction pattern.

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NEO and IOTA continue to lag the broader market, while Ripple is gathering momentum inside its short-term correction pattern, and Ethereum Classic is showing some strength amid the BTC-led rally. Let’s see the short-term setups before the weekend.

Ethereum

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum finally moved above the $315 level as the Byzantium upgrade is drawing closer, and the coin blew past the $330 resistance as well, with the weaker $345 level stopping the advance for now. The coin still looks positive regarding the long-term picture and a rally towards the next target near $380 is likely in the coming week.  Above that, the currency faces resistance near the all-time high just north of $400 while key support is at $300 and $285.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin cleared the $56 resistance following yesterday’s break-out and the coin is now trading near $60 and the previously dominant rising trend channel. The currency is still facing the line-in-the-sand resistance at $64 but the long-term advance is likely back on track. Below the $56 level, key support is at $51 and $44, while further resistance is at $75.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash is still hovering around the $300, as it remains inside the post-surge correction pattern, while still being bullish regarding the long-term picture. The coin is close to providing a short-term buy signal and testing the $330 level, with the declining trendline also being close to that level currently. Further resistance is ahead at $360 and $400 while support is found at $265.

Ripple

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

XRP is still trading inside the rather volatile short-term consolidation pattern that developed after last week’s rally, but now the short-term picture looks promising for bulls. The coin looks to be ready to test the $0.30 level, possibly during the weekend, with another key level just above that at $0.32. Support is now found at $0.24 and around the $0.22 level.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic is still struggling to gain short-term traction despite today’s rally attempt, as the $12.50 resistance proved too strong for now. Short-term traders should still wait until a bullish confirmation with opening new positions, while long-term investors could still add to their positions here.  Crucial resistance is ahead around $13.50, while support is found at $11 and $9.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero broke above the declining trendline after a lengthy correction, but it still faces strong resistance at $100. That said, the long-term picture is clearly bullish and a rally above the $100 level, towards the next target near $125 is likely. Strong support is found near $80 and $68, while the all-time high is ahead just above $150.

NEO

NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO remains inside its volatile correction after tripling off the crash-lows, and the coin is stuck below the $30 level for now. The $25 level is the primary support with another strong level below that near $22. We still expect a move to $40 after the correction is completed, while a decline in volatility is likely before the next major move, with further resistance ahead at $34.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA has been the weakest major recently, but we still don’t expect the coin to trade durably below $0.45 and a rally above the key $0.45-$0.48 zone is likely in the coming days. With the long-term picture still being positive the test of the $0.64 level is the most likely next move. Below that, a weaker resistance level is ahead near $0.56, with long-term support at $0.35.

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Dow Leapfrogs 23,000 as IBM Beats Estimates

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Wednesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2560 0.13%
DAX 13043 0.35%
WTI Crude Oil 52.02 0.29%
GOLD 1284.00 -0.23%
Bitcoin 5435 -3.15%
EUR/USD 1.1793 0.23%

IBM surged higher today, as the company beat analysts’ expectations across the board, pushing the company’s shares up by more than 10% and helping the Industrial Average to a new all-time high yet again. The other major US indices kept on grinding higher as well for most of the day, despite the strong overvaluation, with the Volatility Index (VIX) still hovering around the 10 level. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 finished virtually unchanged after a late-session sell-off, while small caps outperformed in the mixed environment.

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DOW 30 Index, Daily Chart Analysis

Global stocks also edged higher, with the Nikkei still leading the way, although the momentum of the move is still weak. The Yen’s weakness was the most apparent trend in currency markets, while the Pound rebounded well, despite the persistent Brexit worries, with the Dollar giving back some of its recent gains compared to its major peers. Gold also remained under pressure after retreating back below $1300 this week, while crude oil rallied on a bigger than expected, hurricane-related decline in US production.

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Gold 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Cryptocurrencies

The major coins had a hectic and bearish session, especially in early trading, as Bitcoin’s overbought conditions coupled with Ripple’s sudden downturn led to a segment-wide decline. Ethereum continued to slip, as the Byzantium-related optimism faded away, but it remained well above the $285 level, and recovered above $300 towards the end of the session. NEO and IOTA still have a negative correlation with the rest of the market, as the two coins surged higher in early trading and gave back their gains during the late-day rebound.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Technical Picture

The DAX closed on a marginal new all-time high again, but the lengthy momentum divergence in the MACD indicator suggests that the steep uptrend continues to be in jeopardy. The low-volatility drift carried the benchmark above the 13,000 level, but a correction towards at least the 12,850 level is likely in the coming days, with another support level at 12,650 serving as a longer-term target. As the long-term uptrend is clearly intact, bears shouldn’t go all-in here but bulls should consider exiting their positions and wait until a correction to trade the long side again.

DAX, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Wednesday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
3:30 EUROZONE Mario Draghi Speaks
3:30 UK Average Earnings 2.2% 2.1% 2.1%
14:30 UK Claimant Count 1,700 3,200 -2,800
14:30 UK Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% 4.3%
16:00 CANADA Manufacturing Sales 1.6% -0.1% -2.6%
14:30 US Building Permits 1.22 mill 1.25 mill 1.27 mill
16:00 US Housing Starts 1.13 mill 1.18 mill 1.18 mill
15:45 US Crude Oil Inventories -5.7 mill -4.7 mill -2.7 bill

Key Economic Releases on Thursday

Time, CET Country Release Expected Previous
2:30 AUSTRALIA Employment Change 15,200 54,200
2:30 AUSTRALIA Unemployment Rate 5.6% 5.6%
4:00 CHINA GDP 6.8% 6.9%
4:00 CHINA Industrial Production 6.4% 6.0%
10:30 UK Retail Sales -0.1% 1.0%
14:30 US Unemployment Claims 245,000 243,000
14:30 US Philly Fed Index 22.2 23.8
15:45 US Chicago PMI 58.6 58.9

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Dumps and Pumps amid Broad Volatile Correction

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The crypto segment has been in turmoil today, as the most valuable coins turned significantly lower, leading to a mini-panic, but they rallied strongly off their slows as buyers stepped in the second half of the session.

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Bitcoin fell as low as $5100, for a 15% correction top-to-bottom, but it is now trading near the prior short-term support at $5400. As the long-term picture remains overbought, investors shouldn’t open new positions here, but traders could play a likely move towards the $6000 level, although we still advise small sizes, as correction risks remain elevated.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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The other majors were also declining in early trading, led by Ripple, with only NEO and IOTA, holding up well during the sell-off.  Both of the latter coins faded away as the rest of the market recovered, but Ripple continued to suffer. For now, the long-term bullish picture is unchanged for the segment, but BTC’s overbought correction could still cause volatility in the coming period. Let’s see the short-term charts after the busy session.

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Dollar Rally Continues amid Fed Chair Confusion

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Tuesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2554 -0.09%
DAX 12995 -0.07%
WTI Crude Oil 51.53 -0.66%
GOLD 1287.00 -1.22%
Bitcoin 5652 -0.86%
EUR/USD 1.1751 -0.38%

Yesterday’s trends are mostly continued in financial markets, such as the low-volatility levitation in stocks and the slightly more active trading in currencies with the apparent Dollar strength. The Great British Pound continued to be under pressure amid the amplified Brexit-related worries, but most of the other majors also lost ground to the Greenback.

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The Dollar rally has been fueled by the rise in the odds of some of the hawkish Fed Chair candidates, while overall, the “race” for the positions looks more chaotic than ever. Interestingly, the long-end of the yield curve is refusing to follow the short-term moves, and without the effects of the Fed’s QE program, the yield curve would probably be inverted by now, signaling strong recession risks.

Dollar Index (DXY), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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The major stock indices are virtually unchanged yet again and even the previously surging Nikkei entered a consolidation, adding to the unusual October lull. Commodities have been quite active thanks to the Dollar’s vigor, with crude oil and gold both turning lower. Oil gave back most of yesterday’s gains as the Iraqi-Kurdish conflict turned out to be less violent than previously feared, and the brief rally fizzled.

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Cryptocurrencies

The major coins are having a mixed session at best, as yesterday’s rebound wasn’t durable, and most of the coins turned back lower again. That said, despite the recent choppy price action, the total market cap of the segment is close to its all-time high, even as only Bitcoin is trading near its own record price level.

The optimism regarding Ethereum major Byzantium upgrade wasn’t enough to lift the second most valuable coin today, and the price of the ETH token retreated below the key $330 level after touching $350 yesterday after the upgrade’s lock-in. Ripple and NEO have been among the most active majors today, but with opposing performances, as Ripple fell significantly after yesterday’s break-out attempt, while NEO defied gravity and jumped above the $30 level after a corrective period.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Technical Picture

The S&P 500 is grinding higher despite the overbought short-term momentum readings, and the benchmark is trading very close to its all-time high. The 2550 level is still in focus, but until volatility remains near record lows, the minuscule moves are unlikely to change the technical setup. While a sudden drop in prices could quickly negate the recent break-out, the consolidation could very well lead to further upside, as bulls remain firmly in control, despite the lofty valuation levels.

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Tuesday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
02:30 AUSTRALIA RBA Meeting Minutes
10:30 UK CPI 3.00% 3.00% 2.90%
11:00 GERMANY ZEW Sentiment 17.6 20.3 17
12:00 EUROZONE Final CPI 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
15:15 US Industrial Production 0.30% 0.40% 0.20%
15:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate 76.00% 76.20% 76.10%

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