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Technical Analysis: Crypto-Surge Continues with ETC, Monero, and Ripple Leading the Charge

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The historic rally in the cryptocurrency reached even higher today, with Bitcoin getting even closer to the $10,000 mark and some altcoins experiencing another day of lofty gains. Although today’s rise is not as broad as the rally of the recent days, the segment hit another all-time high regarding capitalization above the $310 billion mark, with BTC adding the most in market value again.

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The last major coin on a short- and long-term buy signal, Ripple, finally joined the party, as it surged past the $0.26 resistance and it’s now headed towards $0.30 after a lengthy period of relative weakness. The coin is still yet to turn overbought, and a rally past the long-standing resistance zone between $0.30 and $0.32 is now possible in the coming days, although the majority of the market is now ripe for a deep correction.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Ethereum Classic scored the largest percentage gains today, and that triggered a short-term sell signal, so now we advise investors and traders to only keep their core holdings and wait for the next deeper correction to open new positions. Trailing stops are ideal for exiting trades during such break-outs, with the first major support zone only found at $23.

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin and Monero also gained further ground today, as the positive short-term signals remain active, while Ethereum continued to consolidate near our primary target at $475. IOTA hit a record high above the $1.1 level, despite its already overbought state, while Dash and NEO drifted slightly lower. Let’s see how the short-term setups of the majors.

Bitcoin

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Bitcoin is grinding higher today, with all eyes on the historic $10,000 mark, as public interest is at an unprecedented level towards the cryptocurrency. We expect a deep correction soon in the coin, as it remains severely overbought on all-time frames, with key support levels are still found at $7700, $7000, and $6700. That said, a short-term move above $10,000 is likely, as the uptrend is still intact.

Ethereum

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum continues to trade right at the $475 level, but it failed to launch an advance above the $500 mark so far, despite the broad rally in the segment. The short-term momentum is almost in neutral territory thanks to the consolidation, and another leg higher above the historic price level, towards the target at $545 is likely in the current cycle. Key support levels are still found at $400, $380, and $350.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Litecoin got even closer to its all-time high and the $100 level today, and the coin is likely to test both in the coming period, although a broad correction could drag LTC lower as well. Long-term investors should already be reducing their positions here, but traders should still play the rising trend, with support levels at $82.50, $75, and $64.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash remained relatively weak regarding the short-term picture after hitting out our final target for its break-out, with the $600-$625 zone still being in the center of attention. As the coin remains severely overbought regarding the long-term momentum, investors shouldn’t open new positions here. That said, with the short-term MACD almost back in neutral territory, and the uptrend still being intact, another push to new highs is possible.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero hit our next target at $180 today, with double-digit gains, and although the short-term trend remains intact, investors should continue to reduce their positions on the way up. We still expect a move to the $200 level, with strong support found at $150 and $125.

NEO

NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO showed relative weakness today after yesterday’s bounce, but the long-term picture remains encouraging, as the coin is still not overbought. We still expect a move towards the $50 level, although the risk of a broad correction in the segment is rising, while strong support is found at $34 and $30.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA surged past the previous all-time high at $1.1 amid the euphoric sentiment, but the coin remains extremely stretched regarding the long-term momentum, and now the short-term risk/reward ratio is also unfavorable. Investors and traders should now wait for the next deeper correction before entering new positions. Support below $1.1 is found at $1, $0.75, $0.64, and $0.56.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 256 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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6 Comments

6 Comments

  1. Brentc

    November 28, 2017 at 10:17 pm

    Where can I get these alt coins in USA rather than Coinbase?
    Thanks

  2. Chris G

    November 28, 2017 at 11:16 pm

    thanks Mate – your perspective is always appreciated …

  3. akshayable

    November 29, 2017 at 8:34 am

    i entered etc at $33. Should i sell at a loss and buy again at a lower level or should i wait and price should come to 33$ again.

  4. Chris G

    November 29, 2017 at 4:59 pm

    this is starting to get crazy – good call on ETH, yet again

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Analysis

Stocks Suffer Hit as Trump Cancels Summit, Turkey Hikes Rate

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After yesterday’s late-day bounce, stocks got close to their two-week lows yet again today in early trading, as risk assets got sold across the board after Donald Trump canceled the much-awaited summit with North Korea’s Kim Dong Un. Safe haven assets spiked higher on the news, with gold getting back above $1300, and the Japanese Yen also gaining significant ground on its peers.

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NASDAQ 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

US equities are still not in a terrible short-term position, as the key support levels are holding up, and the trading range is intact, but most European indices gave back all of this month’ s gains, and the cracks on the synchronized global growth narrative are clear.

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Emerging markets are still under pressure, even as the Turkish central bank finally did what we have been expecting, raising its benchmark rate by 3% after an emergency meeting yesterday, but for now, it seems that the this might have been too little too late.

USD/TRY (Turkish Lira), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Lira recovered more than 8% off its intraday lows, but today the currency has been plunging again, and it is still dangerously close to its all-time low, and a run on the Lira is still not out of the question. Mr. Erdogan told the Turkish citizens not to exchange their Lira to foreign currency, but the President might need more than “verbal capital controls” to stop the collapse.

Dovish Fed Minutes Cause Slight Dollar Pullback

Dollar Index, Daily Chart Analysis

The US Dollar is lower compared to the Euro, the Pound, and the Yen today, even as the Greenback gained ground against the Canadian Dollar. While the Yen’s advance is due to the risk-off sentiment, the Dollar’s broad pullback started after the release of the FOMC meeting minutes yesterday, as the central bank expressed that it would allow inflation to overshoot the 2% target temporarily.

US 2-Year Yield, Daily Chart Analysis

This caused a drop in Treasury yields across the yield curve, as investors removed their rate hike bets. The 2-year yield briefly hit a level not seen since mid-April, while the 10-year yield got back to the key 3% level. The European Central Bank also released its minutes today, and the bank also cited downside economic risk, capping the dip in the Dollar and helping the pullback in yields.

Featured image from Shutterstock            

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 256 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Coins Spike Lower amid Regulatory Woes, Technical Breakdown

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Following a period of directionless range trading in the segment, cryptocurrencies got hit hard yesterday, on a very busy day in financial markets. The largest coins and small caps are down by 20% in two days on average, with the total value of the market declining by around $70 billion. The Indian tax plan, and the continued rise of the Dollar were among the triggers of the losses, and the move accelerated when key initial support levels were broken in the majors. The current selloff could be the last phase of the correction of the April run-up, as sentiment volume patterns and sentiment point to an approaching durable bottom.

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While the market managed to bounce in late trading, which extended to the Asian session today, now the coins are generally trading on new short-term lows after another wave of selling hit them. Correlations are very high, with only a few coins, Ethereum, Ripple, EOS, Tron, and Stellar showing some signs of resilience amid the rout.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Bitcoin plunged lower together with the broader market despite showing some relative strength in the beginning of the week, and it violated the key support zone between $7650 and $7800 in the process, Now, BTC is trading just above the $7300 support, with the short-term momentum indicators in oversold territory.

The coin is still not a buy from a short-term perspective, and traders shouldn’t enter new positions yet. Further resistance is ahead in the key $8400-$8600 zone and between $9000 and $9200, while support is found at $7000 and $6750.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum continues to be in a better technical position than BTC and the coin is trading in the strong support zone between $555 and $575 after falling below the $625-$645 zone. We still expect the uptrend to resume, and as the daily momentum indicators are also headed towards oversold territory, a long-term buy signal is close. Further support is found near $500 while above $625 the next main zone is between $735 and $780.

Ripple Holds $0.575, as Altcoins Trying to Find Footing

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

XRP is showing the most short-term promise among the top coins, holding up above yesterday’s low, while showing a positive divergence with regards to the 4-Hour MACD indicator. The recently rallying Tron is also relatively strong today, although it fell back into its previous trading range, while the other leaders of the April surge, IOTA and EOS are also stuck in declining patterns.

There are still no cons on a short-term buy signal and Bitcoin Cash, Monero, Litecoin, NEO, and Dash are among the laggards, but for now, the long-term picture remains promising for the whole segment.

Stay tuned for our long-term technical analysis coming out later on today.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 256 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Nasdaq Technical Update: Technology-Driven Index Poised to Retest 2018 High

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Nasdaq

Technical Overview

  • On Tuesday (May 15), NASDAQ retested and held above the 7,320 level (April’s high – white horizontal trendline and white arrow in Figure 1).
  • Over the next 5 trading sessions, the index oscillated within a tight 90-point range (7,340 – 7,430). This price action was considered constructive as the consolidation occurred above short-term support.
  • Today (May 23), the index opened over 40 points lower, with an intraday low of 7,335, and moved up throughout the entire trading session. As the index opened at the daily low and closed at the daily high, it formed a white Marubozu candle (i.e. the candle has no upper or lower wick). While I haven’t done extensive testing on the pattern, other technicians have found the one-day pattern to carry almost no predictive power. It is the location of the candle that matters the most. Had it occurred just below a major resistance or after a sharp decline (i.e. indicating a “relief-rally”), the pattern may have proved to be insignificant. However, given the intraday low came less than 15 points away from the key 7,320 level, before moving sharply higher for the rest of the day, the pattern is deemed very significant.

Support levels:

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  • The 8 EMA (yellow line, currently at 7,378).
  • The lower support of the large trading channel, currently at 7,360 and rising by roughly 7 points/day (green trendline; only lower support shown to avoid overcrowding of the chart).
  • The 7,320 level (April’s high)
  • The intermediate-term support (ITS – violet trendline), currently at 6,990.

Resistance levels:

  • The May 14 high (7,458).
  • The 2018 high (7,600 – 7,637) range

Figure 1. NASDAQ Daily Chart

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Implications

  • Today’s move is expected to mark the beginning of the leg-up that retests the 2018 high. The index needs to move above the May 14 high (purple horizontal trendline) to confirm and activate a short-term upside target of 7,600 (i.e. just below the 2018 high).
  • Long positions in index-tracking ETFs or constituents recommended as long as the index remains above 7,320

Outlook

  • Short-term bullish above 7,320.
  • Long-term bullish if the index breaks above its March high.
  • Short-term neutral if the index breaks below 7,320 but remains above its ITS (violet trendline).
  • Long-term bearish if the index breaks below the ITS.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.8 stars on average, based on 12 rated postsPublished author of technical research. In his work on price “gaps”, published in the 2018 International Federation of Technical Analysts’ Annual Journal, he developed a new technical tool for analyzing and trading the “gap” phenomenon – the “K-Divergence” (http://ifta.org/public/files/journal/d_ifta_journal_18). Besides obtaining a Master in Financial Technical Analysis, he has completed a BBA and an MBA from the Schulich School of Business in Toronto and has completed all exams for the CFA, CMT and CFTe designations. Currently, providing research to investment management and financial advisory firms. http://www.linkedin.com/in/konstantindimov




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