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Technical Analysis: Crypto-Surge Continues with ETC, Monero, and Ripple Leading the Charge

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The historic rally in the cryptocurrency reached even higher today, with Bitcoin getting even closer to the $10,000 mark and some altcoins experiencing another day of lofty gains. Although today’s rise is not as broad as the rally of the recent days, the segment hit another all-time high regarding capitalization above the $310 billion mark, with BTC adding the most in market value again.

The last major coin on a short- and long-term buy signal, Ripple, finally joined the party, as it surged past the $0.26 resistance and it’s now headed towards $0.30 after a lengthy period of relative weakness. The coin is still yet to turn overbought, and a rally past the long-standing resistance zone between $0.30 and $0.32 is now possible in the coming days, although the majority of the market is now ripe for a deep correction.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic scored the largest percentage gains today, and that triggered a short-term sell signal, so now we advise investors and traders to only keep their core holdings and wait for the next deeper correction to open new positions. Trailing stops are ideal for exiting trades during such break-outs, with the first major support zone only found at $23.

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin and Monero also gained further ground today, as the positive short-term signals remain active, while Ethereum continued to consolidate near our primary target at $475. IOTA hit a record high above the $1.1 level, despite its already overbought state, while Dash and NEO drifted slightly lower. Let’s see how the short-term setups of the majors.

Bitcoin

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Bitcoin is grinding higher today, with all eyes on the historic $10,000 mark, as public interest is at an unprecedented level towards the cryptocurrency. We expect a deep correction soon in the coin, as it remains severely overbought on all-time frames, with key support levels are still found at $7700, $7000, and $6700. That said, a short-term move above $10,000 is likely, as the uptrend is still intact.

Ethereum

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum continues to trade right at the $475 level, but it failed to launch an advance above the $500 mark so far, despite the broad rally in the segment. The short-term momentum is almost in neutral territory thanks to the consolidation, and another leg higher above the historic price level, towards the target at $545 is likely in the current cycle. Key support levels are still found at $400, $380, and $350.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Litecoin got even closer to its all-time high and the $100 level today, and the coin is likely to test both in the coming period, although a broad correction could drag LTC lower as well. Long-term investors should already be reducing their positions here, but traders should still play the rising trend, with support levels at $82.50, $75, and $64.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash remained relatively weak regarding the short-term picture after hitting out our final target for its break-out, with the $600-$625 zone still being in the center of attention. As the coin remains severely overbought regarding the long-term momentum, investors shouldn’t open new positions here. That said, with the short-term MACD almost back in neutral territory, and the uptrend still being intact, another push to new highs is possible.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero hit our next target at $180 today, with double-digit gains, and although the short-term trend remains intact, investors should continue to reduce their positions on the way up. We still expect a move to the $200 level, with strong support found at $150 and $125.

NEO

NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO showed relative weakness today after yesterday’s bounce, but the long-term picture remains encouraging, as the coin is still not overbought. We still expect a move towards the $50 level, although the risk of a broad correction in the segment is rising, while strong support is found at $34 and $30.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA surged past the previous all-time high at $1.1 amid the euphoric sentiment, but the coin remains extremely stretched regarding the long-term momentum, and now the short-term risk/reward ratio is also unfavorable. Investors and traders should now wait for the next deeper correction before entering new positions. Support below $1.1 is found at $1, $0.75, $0.64, and $0.56.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 321 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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6 Comments

6 Comments

  1. Brentc

    November 28, 2017 at 10:17 pm

    Where can I get these alt coins in USA rather than Coinbase?
    Thanks

  2. Chris G

    November 28, 2017 at 11:16 pm

    thanks Mate – your perspective is always appreciated …

  3. akshayable

    November 29, 2017 at 8:34 am

    i entered etc at $33. Should i sell at a loss and buy again at a lower level or should i wait and price should come to 33$ again.

  4. Chris G

    November 29, 2017 at 4:59 pm

    this is starting to get crazy – good call on ETH, yet again

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Analysis

Crypto Update: Ethereum Classic on Track for a Bullish Reversal

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Ethereum Classic (ETC/USD) is among the many altcoins that suffered a massive beating this year. While the pair managed to go as high as $47.296 on January 14, 2018, it has been on a downward spiral ever since. On August 14, it registered a low of $10.10 and at that price point, Ethereum Classic has shed close to 80% of its value from this year’s high.

Just as gloom and doom articles started to circulate on the internet, Ethereum Classic came back from the dead. The market is still weak but it is gaining strength. In this article, we reveal three reasons why we believe ETC is on track for a bullish reversal.

Successful Backtest of a Breakout

Many investors believed that Ethereum Classic was headed into even deeper bear territory. It breached support of $12.00 on August 13 and generated another lower low. After all, lower highs and lower lows are the hallmarks of a downtrend. ETC seems consistent in following the textbook definition of a downtrend.

With these developments, it’s difficult to imagine that Ethereum Classic has already broken out of a reversal pattern. However, it did break out of the large falling wedge on the daily and weekly charts. What we’re seeing right now is the backtesting of the breakout.

Daily chart of ETC/USD

In technical analysis, a resistance becomes a support level once breached. The chart above shows the clear breach of the resistance, hence the breakout. Even with the breakout, Ethereum Classic still dropped. This may seem counterintuitive that’s why many are still saying that the market is bearish.

However, the chart clearly depicts that ETC bounced from the support. It is respecting the new support, which means the breakout is still valid. The backtesting was a resounding success.  

Ethereum Classic Indicators Look Strong

We’re bullish on Ethereum Classic because technical indicators are glowing. Ignore the price drop and you’ll see that the market is gaining strength.

A quick look at the weekly chart reveals that bulls are returning in massive numbers. The extreme volume surge over the last two weeks tells us that bulls are buying the market. The last time ETC printed the same volume level was back in February 2018. However, this is the first time the market is printing such heavy volume for two consecutive weeks.

Weekly chart of ETC/USD

On top of that, a long bullish divergence can be spotted on the daily MACD. Also, ETC has bounced from historic daily Stochastic support of 7.00. These indicators tell us that bulls are wrestling the momentum away from bears.

Daily chart of ETC/USD with indicators

Projected Move

ETC/USD may be looking bullish, but that doesn’t mean that the market will skyrocket anytime soon. On the contrary, it would be better for the long-term health of the market for the price to consolidate between $12 – $20 before making a major move up. If a massive rally occurs that works, too. Whatever happens, we believe that the future looks rosy for ETC.

ETC/USD may have bottomed out

The main reason for the optimism is because the market just bounced from its historic support. This tells us that a bottom may be in place and it’s highly likely that ETC will not go anywhere but up.

Bottom Line

ETC may look extremely bearish but a closer look tells us the exact opposite. The successful backtest of the breakout and the flashing of bullish signals from multiple technical indicators tell us that Ethereum Classic is on track for a bullish reversal.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.6 stars on average, based on 224 rated postsKiril is a financial professional with 4+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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Analysis

Ethereum’s Tumble:  ICOs Aren’t The Problem

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Trying to come up with a rational explanation for crypto price movements is a thankless task. Sure, there are several attempts being made by quant jocks to develop a model for valuing coins and tokens.  Most of these that I have reviewed suggest that prices undervalue both the underlying asset or the eventual demand.

In other words, crypto prices are cheap: what a surprise.

This bit of wisdom may be of some comfort to committed long term investors, but it hasn’t translated into higher market prices. A good example of this is Ether. Over the past six months, while Bitcoin has been treading water (down 7%), the price of Ether has been cut in half.  This altcoin was the topic of one of my recent articles called: Has Ethereum Lost It’s Cache?

The essence of this article was to point out how Ethereum, the platform preferred by 75%-80% of all ICOs, was suffering from investor indifference.  When you measure the activity of the top 100 tokens according to CoinMarketCap.com, the US dollar value of 9 of the top 10 most actively traded amounted to an average of $14,000 over the previous 24 hours.  Please keep in mind, trading activity in ETH over the same 24 hour period amounted to $1.8 billion USD.

Bloomberg Speak

One of the more interesting contradictions to my research into Ethereum’s plight comes from an article originating from a highly respected source: Bloomberg News.  The headline reads: “Ether Tumbles as Concern Increases That ICOs Are Cashing Out”.  It is totally defies the data to believe that every ICO cashing out when there is almost no volume to confirm this claim.

Quoting from an August 13th article:

Initial coin offerings using the Ethereum blockchain are seen as one of the main catalysts for sending Ether’s price surging last year. Now they’re being blamed for its decline.

It is quite true that initial coin offerings using the Ethereum blockchain was a catalyst for sending Ether’s price surging last year. It gave investors a reason to buy Ether even if they didn’t tell an ICO from a UFO. But are ICOs the real blame for both the good and the bad of Ethereum price?  I will step aside and let you be the judge.

For starters it is important to remember that ICOs raised $2.4 billion last year while ETH value appreciated almost $70 billion. The concept of ICOs may have fueled blind speculation but the math tells us that real demand was much less.

As for taking the blame for falling ETH prices, consider this notion. At its peak in January ETH was valued at $133 billion.  Currently that value is $100 billion+ lower than just eights months ago.

Using the data from ICOWatchList.com, since the beginning of 2017 ICOs have raised a total of $8.5 billion.  The statistical experts claim the Ethereum platform was used by between 80%-83% of all ICOs, thus reducing the $8.5 billion number to $5.7 billion.  

There is no question that ICOs influenced ETH speculators but that doesn’t begin to explain the more than $600 billion in aggregate losses for all crypto assets.   

Criticism Of Startup Managements

Critics claim that ICOs give startups the ability to raise lots of capital but they are proving weak in management on the funds once they are in their crypto wallet.  There is a certain validity to this since the number of founders with deep experience as CEOs and CFOs is pretty limited. But how can anyone separate insider selling activity from all other volume?

Research website Santiment, which compiles a selection of Ethereum-based projects, estimates startups have spent over 110,000 Ether in the past 30 days. At current prices that amounts to about $33 million.  For sake of discussion, let’s assume this high rate of token liquidation took place each and every month this year. Then use and average ETH price of $700 and that brings the total to $616 million.

There is no question that ICO sellers have contributed to the decline in ETH.  It would even be fair to call it a catalyst that created fear of losing all (FOLA).  Now if we could only quantify fear with an index like the VIX used by stock investors, we would see the major cause of the decline.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 97 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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Analysis

Commodity Update: Wheat Not Yet Out of the Woods

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Wheat (WHEAT/USD) is up 29.12% year-to-date as the market came to life early this year. The successful defense of a key support level attracted investors who were staying on the sidelines for years while waiting for a tradeable bottom. This ignited a powerful rally that saw the pair generate volume that’s never been seen in over 15 years. As a result, many investors believe that Wheat may have finally reversed its trend.

In the midst of the bullish rally, it appears that bears are pulling the biggest trick that’s up their sleeve. In this article, we explore why Wheat is not yet out of the woods.

Premature Reversal for Wheat

A quick look at the daily and weekly charts reveals that the commodity appears to have broken out of a cup and handle pattern. From a short-term perspective, the market registered a higher low of $3.908 in December 2017. This gave bulls the confidence to stage a massive rally. The rally eradicated resistance of $5.00 in July 2018 with colossal volume.

Weekly chart of Wheat

The price action has led many to believe that the multi-year downtrend is over. But what if it isn’t?    

Major Roadblocks Ahead

A long-term view of the commodity reveals that it’s still in a downtrend. The market’s inability to close above $5.50 on the weekly and monthly charts is a signal that bears are not yet ready to hand over the keys to the kingdom. They are fighting back and so far, it seems that they have the upper hand.

Monthly chart of Wheat

Wheat is not reversing the trend as long as it respects the long-term resistance. This trendline has existed for 10 years and it is responsible for the commodity’s multi-year downtrend. From this perspective, it is easy to see that the pair continues to post lower highs and a lower low, which is the textbook definition of a downtrend.

Wheat still in a downtrend

Projected Movements

It’s not gloom and doom for bulls however. Even though a major resistance is staring down at them, they might still be able to come out on top. Keep in mind, bulls posted a record-shattering volume in July when Wheat went above $5.00. That means $5.00 has now become a key support level. It might just be strong enough to ignite a new rally and finally take out the long-term resistance.

Possible movements of Wheat

Otherwise, the record-breaking volume would work against bulls. All of those who bought above $5.00 are most likely using the support as a stop loss. Breach of this support would ignite a selling frenzy that can drive the market to even lower levels.

It is very possible that Wheat could capitulate during this plummet. When it does, there will be a long-term support where bulls can stage a rally to break out of the large falling wedge on the monthly chart.

Bottom Line

Wheat’s recent move above $5.00 with massive volume has attracted a lot of investors. The market may look bullish but in reality, it needs to deal with a long-term resistance before it can reverse its trend. In other words, Wheat is not yet out of the woods.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.6 stars on average, based on 224 rated postsKiril is a financial professional with 4+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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