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Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Still Under Pressure as Mixed Trading Continues

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The short-term correction that has been dominating the major coins is still intact, although the relatively low volatility and the ongoing rotation between the currencies suggest that the rising trend is not in danger. Bitcoin is hovering around the $4200 level today, as the most valuable coin, exited the short-term trend and entered a trading range between $4150 and $4400 after the sharp post-crash advance. BTC is still 40% above the lows of the deep correction, and with the long-term picture being constructive we expect the advance to continue after the consolidation. Further support is found at $4000, $3800, and $3500 while resistance is ahead around $4650.

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BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The other majors are mixed with no major percentage changes compared to yesterday’s price levels. Ripple and Monero are still among the better-performing coins, while Dash is also showing strength after a period of weakness. NEO and IOTA remained more volatile than the broader market while Ethereum Classic found some support near $12 after a negative period. With correlations being lower than in recent weeks the individual starts require more attention from traders, so let’s see the details for the most traded majors.

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Ethereum

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum is still holding up above the crucial $285 level despite the recent weakness, and the long-term picture remains encouraging for bulls here, with the gains of the 50% rally being mostly held by the coin. That said, the $300 level is still ahead as resistance for the currency and the short-term trading range remains intact. Further resistance is still ahead at $380, while support is at $250 and $235.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin remains stuck between the $51 support and the $56 resistance as the coin still trades with relatively low volatility, while underperforming the broader market. LTC needs to recover above primary resistance to retain a short-term buy signal, as it is still below the rising long-term trend.  Below $51, further support is found at $44, while resistance is ahead near $64, and at $75.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash bounced off the key $300 level as it formed a short-term bottom as we expected, and with the long-term picture still being very positive, the coin is expected to test the $330 and $360 levels in the coming period. That said, the short-term consolidation pattern is still intact, and more sideways price action is possible before the segment concludes the short-term correction. Below $300, support is found near $265 while crucial resistance is ahead at $360 and above that at the all-time high near $410.

Ripple

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

XRP remains very strong from a technical perspective, still trading inside a shallow short-term consolidation pattern that points to a rally above the resistance zone around the $0.22 level soon. The coin outperformed the broader market during the current short-term correction, holding up above primary support. Further support levels below $0.195 are still found at $0.18, $0.16, and $0.14, with resistance ahead at $0.26 and $0.30.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic found support near the $12 level, but it remains weak after last week’s rally, and the resistance zone around the $13.50 level is still ahead as a major obstacle. The coin has been acting weak since the China-induced crash, and short-term traders are still advised to stay away from new positions here, although the current price levels are still attractive for investors. Primary support is found near $11, while further resistance is ahead at $16 and $18.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero has been the most stable major since the crash, as it remained above the $80 support but below the declining trend with progressively falling volatility. We still expect the coin to exit its correction pattern soon and test the $100 resistance, as it remains one of the strongest currencies regarding the long-term picture. Below $80, key support is found at $68, while further resistance is ahead at $125.

NEO

NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO is once again trading near the $30 level as the coin continues to correct the huge rally off the crash lows. The rising trend is clearly intact, and as the MACD is back to neutral, a short-term bottom could be formed in the coming days. Support is still found at $30 and $25 while primary resistance is around the $34 and $40 levels, with the dominant short-term trendline currently at $27.50.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA bounced off the short-term support level just above the $0.50 level again today, and it is likely forming a swing low that will conclude the short-term correction. Last week’s rally topped out near the $0.64 resistance again, but we still expect a move above that zone in the coming weeks. Further targets are near $0.75 and 41.10 while key support is still found between $0.45 and $0.48 and below that at $0.35.

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Cryptocurrency Analysis: Altcoins Slide as Bitcoin Rally Pauses

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All of the major coins are trading lower today after a bearish weekend, as altcoins are still underperforming Bitcoin, with the market leader holding up well near its all-time high. BTC is back below the $6000 level after surpassing our long-term target last week, but it’s still well within the rising trend, despite the overbought long-term picture.

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The coin found support near the $5800 level, although it spiked as low as $5600 in the bearish environment. While we advise investors to wait until the next correction with new positions, traders could still bet on a rally to new highs as long as BTC remains in an uptrend. Support levels below $5800 are found near $5400 and $5000.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Altcoins are trading well below their respective all-time highs, as capital has been flowing towards Bitcoin in recent weeks, but most of the major coins are still in long-term uptrends, with only ETC looking suspiciously week. Dash is the best performing currency of the day, as it surged off the $265 support, while Monero, Litecoin, and NEO are also among the relatively strong coins. Ethereum hit a one-month low below the $285 support, while Ethereum Classic, Ripple, and IOTA are all performing weaker than the broad market. Let’s see the short-term charts of the altcoins.

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Analysis

Buy FDS, PPC, BERY, and IIVI for the short-term

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The US tax reforms received a major boost on Thursday when a measure approved by the Senate, enabled the Republicans to proceed with the tax cuts, without the support of the Democratic party.  Suddenly, passage of the tax cuts looks more plausible.

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Key observations

  1. Positive news is flowing on the tax reforms front.
  2. Tax reforms are likely to boost the S&P’s earnings significantly
  3. The stocks are likely to remain buoyant in the final quarter of the year
  4. Buy FDS
  5. Buy PPC
  6. Buy BERY
  7. Buy IIVI

Goldman Sachs believes that if corporate tax rates are reduced from 35 percent to 20 percent, it will increase the annual per-share earnings of the S&P 500 by $15. Consequently, the stock market will look a lot less richly valued on a forward price to earnings basis.

With this bullish backdrop, the stock markets are likely to remain buoyant in the short-term. However, we don’t advise investing for the long-term at these levels. We believe that the markets will fall within the next few months, offering an opportunity to buy stocks at lower levels.

Therefore, we shall trade this market and attempt to ride the momentum. We have selected stocks that are making new 52-week highs because they have a favorable tailwind and are likely to participate in the rally, along with the S&P 500.

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So, without further ado, let’s check out the stocks.

FDS – Buy 185.76, Stop Loss (SL) 174, Target 204 and 216

Weekly chart

The stock’s history shows that it tends to rally for a few years and then enters into a shallow correction or consolidation. We find three such instances in the past decade. The stock has been in a consolidation since end-2015. Two attempts, one in September 2016 and the second in March 2017, failed to sustain the breakout.

However, the stock again broke out in end-September and extended the rally last week. It is likely to start a new uptrend now and we plan to hop along for a ride.

Daily chart

The stock broke out of the bullish ascending triangle formation on September 26. Thereafter, it faced resistance at the $184 levels, from where the bears attempted to sink the stock, back into the triangle.

However, the bulls provided support at the $176 levels and the stock broke out of the overhead resistance on Friday. It is now likely to rally towards its first target objective of $204. The pattern target on a breakout from the ascending triangle, however, is higher at $216.

Therefore, we recommend a buy on the stock at the current levels with a stop loss of $174. We don’t want to hang on to the stock if it falls back into the triangle once again. The stock has a risk to reward ratio of 1:1.5 at the first target objective and a ratio of about 1:2.5 at the second target objective.

PPC – Buy 31.04, SL 27, Target 37

Weekly chart

The stock rose sharply from end-2012 to end-2014. Thereafter, it corrected and entered into three-year long consolidation, during which, it remained range bound between $17 on the lower end and $27.5 on the upper end. PPC formed a double bottom at $17.3 levels and the pattern completed when the stock broke out of $27.5 in mid-August of this year. Subsequently, the stock completed a successful retest of the breakout levels of $27.5 and rose to multi-year highs last week. We, now, expect the stock to start a new uptrend.

Daily chart

The stock broke out of the overhead resistance on August 15. However, the stock faced considerable resistance following the breakout. It remained sandwiched between $28 and $30 for almost two months. Finally, on October 18, the stock broke out of the range and extended its rally on October 20.

It has a pattern target of $37, which is close to the lifetime highs. There is no significant resistance in between, therefore, we recommend a buy on PPC at the current levels of $31.04. The stop loss can be kept at $27, a level not seen for more than two months. The trade offers us a risk to reward ratio of about 1:1.5.

BERY – Buy 59.88, SL 56, Target 67

Weekly chart

BERY has been in a strong uptrend since 2016. It has a clear pattern. It rallies and then corrects towards the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) and occasionally to the trendline drawn. On completion of the correction, it again resumes its uptrend.

Recently, the stock had again corrected to the trendline, from where it found support and broke out to new lifetime highs last week. We expect this trend to continue until the stock breaks and closes below the trendline support. We want to enter this stock as it has re-established its uptrend.

Daily chart

The stock broke out of the overhead resistance of $58.95 on October 06. Afterwards, it successfully retested the breakout levels and has resumed its uptrend. We can buy the stock at the current levels of $59.88 and keep a stop loss of $56. We shall close the position if the stock falls below the trendline. Our target objective is $67. The trade offers us a risk to reward ratio of about 1:2.

IIVI – Buy 43.3, SL 39, Target 52

Weekly chart

The stock bottomed out in October-2014 around the $10.78 mark. Thereafter, it started a new uptrend that continued till February of this year, after which, the stock entered a period of correction. $41.1 has acted as a stiff resistance on the way up. However, last week, the stock broke out to new highs and we expect it to continue higher.

Daily chart

On the daily chart, we find that the stock has formed a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern. The pattern completed with a breakout of the neckline on September 27. Thereafter, the stock successfully completed a retest of the neckline. The stock has a pattern target of $52. We want to enter the stock at the current levels and keep a stop loss of $39, which is just below the low created on October 19. This gives us a risk to reward ratio of greater than 1:2.

 

 

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Analysis

Notable Bitcoin Price Growth Events in October

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October has been an interesting month for Bitcoin, with growth of about 40% so far, breaking a market cap of over $101,881,681,652.

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But if you are looking at Bitcoin long-term, this is more than just numbers now. Yes, Bitcoin did experience some explosive growth this month (and has been this entire year), but we shouldn’t let that distract us from some of the main components that will fuel Bitcoin’s growth in the long-term.

  1. Not only did the price break $6,000 per Bitcoin for the first time ever, we started to see Bitcoin’s market cap rate surpass that of big banks such as Goldman Sachs ($93 billion) and Morgan Stanley ($89 billion). While comparing the market capitalization of a cryptocurrency with that of publicly traded companies doesn’t make much financial sense, it’s entertaining to watch financial institutions stress out about Bitcoin.

For example, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase Jamie Dimon can’t stop talking about Bitcoin and venting his frustration with the topic by calling Bitcoin a “fraud” and threatening to fire any employee trading it for the simple reason of “being stupid”.

We also saw Goldman Sachs state that Bitcoin is not the “new gold” in terms of currency, calling it volatile and the methods of storage vulnerable. Goldman Sachs also stated that precious metals like gold are still the best way to store value-long term. While this may be historically accurate, the world hasn’t seen anything like Bitcoin before. Understanding Bitcoin’s growth a matter of equipping yourself with the perspective and ideology that Bitcoin (or  if/when whatever cryptocurrency evolves to take its place) can play a substantial long-term role in how society views money.

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Traditional financial institutions such as investment banks are at an interesting point. Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ripple are inherent threats to the very foundation that these multi-hundred-billion dollar companies operate on, and they can’t be defeated because of their decentralized nature. Additionally, many of the same banks that are threatened are also investors looking to reap the rewards of Bitcoin’s explosive growth, and also are incubating similar blockchain concepts to not get left in the dust.

  1. People are starting to look at Bitcoin as an oasis of solidity in an otherwise tumultuous alt-coin market.

In September, we saw an unprecedented crackdown on ICOs and alt-coins by government entities. China and South Korea outright banned the sales of ICOs, and the United States warned investors to be skeptical. While there are hundreds (soon to be thousands) of dubious ICOs, this crackdown did have effects on how investors view legitimate alt-coins. For this reason, many investors flocked to Bitcoin and were able to enjoy some solid growth in October.

So, that brings up the question of whether Bitcoin will be a source of stability in the future. Although the price has gone up a lot this month, that doesn’t make it any less volatile.

  1. Bitcoin still has a long way to go. One of the key pieces of news in October that influenced the writing of this piece was the prediction that Bitcoin will hit $27,000 in four months by an avid cryptocurrency investor and enthusiast called Trace Mayer. While Twitter is filled with all kinds of Bitcoin hooplah, Mayer’s prediction was based on a simple 200 day moving average. This 200 day moving average would put Bitcoin well over $27,000.

Four months is close enough in the future to anticipate, so I’m really interested to see where BTC ends up between then and now. The counter-argument against this would be that Bitcoin may just be experience a state of exponential growth and will cool off, but that’s what people have been saying for years.

It’s also important to note that Bitcoin’s main competitors for value storage and a medium of exchange are the US Dollar and gold. Bitcoin was able to earn a market capitalization of over $100 billion in just a few short years, but this hardly holds a candle to its competitors. The US Dollar money supply circles around $12,500 billion. All the gold that has ever been mined is worth around $8,000 billion.

This means that Bitcoin, this innovative new technology with exponential growth is only around 1% of its two main competitors. This leaves Bitcoin a long way to grow, and I personally don’t think it’s going to slow down anytime soon.

Final Thoughts

By all means, this isn’t a conclusive argument for where Bitcoin’s price will end up. These are just a few points I want to bring up regardless of whatever you choose to do with your money.

There are a handful good of arguments on both sides of the Bitcoin growth discussion, but it all comes down to how well you can either respond to short-term events, or how cemented you are in your long-term beliefs.

Personally, I don’t recommend day-trading or trying to “game” exchanges for the simple fact that losing money sucks, and this is an easy way to lose money.

However, what I can advocate is the thorough research of the fundamental factors influencing the growth of particular cryptocurrencies and how the world responds to it. For example, in October we saw investment banks start commenting more about Bitcoin (which at the very least hints at more media coverage), how many users decided to stick with Bitcoin instead of liquidating for fiat during rough alt-coin times, and some explosive growth that backs up the lofty price goal assumptions by crypto enthusiasts.

 

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