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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Dumps and Pumps amid Broad Volatile Correction

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The crypto segment has been in turmoil today, as the most valuable coins turned significantly lower, leading to a mini-panic, but they rallied strongly off their slows as buyers stepped in the second half of the session.

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Bitcoin fell as low as $5100, for a 15% correction top-to-bottom, but it is now trading near the prior short-term support at $5400. As the long-term picture remains overbought, investors shouldn’t open new positions here, but traders could play a likely move towards the $6000 level, although we still advise small sizes, as correction risks remain elevated.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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The other majors were also declining in early trading, led by Ripple, with only NEO and IOTA, holding up well during the sell-off.  Both of the latter coins faded away as the rest of the market recovered, but Ripple continued to suffer. For now, the long-term bullish picture is unchanged for the segment, but BTC’s overbought correction could still cause volatility in the coming period. Let’s see the short-term charts after the busy session.

Ethereum

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum dipped below the $300 level amid the broad move lower and it got close to the key $285 support yet again before the bounce. The coin is now getting short-term oversold, with the long-term uptrend being in no danger. The long-term MACD is still neutral, and a rally towards $380 is likely in the coming weeks, with primary resistance ahead at $330.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Litecoin has traded well below $60 and spiked below $56 today, probably hitting a short-term bottom that could set up a move above the $64 resistance in the coming week. The long-term setup is still encouraging, and even as Bitcoin might cause volatile periods, the coin is expected to trend higher, with the next target being at $75.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash remained relatively stable amid the sell-off, but it dipped below the $300 level. The coin is still well inside the broad correction pattern that we have been monitoring, and the long-term setup remains unchanged. Short-term traders should still wait with opening new positions, but from an investment standpoint, the coin remains bullish, with strong support $265, and resistance ahead at $330 and $360.

Ripple

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

XRP is in a freefall despite the encouraging news from the conference regarding the coin and after exiting the short-term uptrend it fell back to the $0.22 support, erasing most of its break-out gains. The long-term picture remains encouraging but more volatility is expected after today’s move, with the short-term picture clearly being oversold. Support is currently near the $0.20 and $0.18 levels, while resistance is ahead at $0.24 and $0.26.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic is testing the $11 support today following the other majors lower, and it remains the weakest major, technically speaking. As the coin still faces primary resistance at $12.50, with further supply around the $13.50 level, short-term traders should still stay away from entering new positions here. Support below $11 is found at $9, with more resistance ahead at $16 and at $18.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero followed the segment lower as well, and the coin is now back below $90 after trading briefly above the key $100 level during the weekend. Despite the dip, the currency remains on a short-term buy signal as the break-out from the declining trend is intact. Primary support is near the $80 level, while further resistance is ahead at $125. We still expect the bullish long-term picture to prevail, but more sideways price action is possible before a break above $100.

NEO

NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO acted promisingly amid the dip, and it continues to hover around the $30 level in a volatile fashion, leaving the long-term technical setup unchanged. The coin remains bullish barring a move below $25, with resistance level ahead at $34 and $40. The short-term picture is neutral, and the long-term momentum indicators are also near neutral after the volatile correction.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA recovered above the crucial $0.45-$0.48 support/resistance zone today in early trading, but now it’s back below the $0.45 level, despite the brief rally. The coin remains among the weakest majors and although the long-term picture is encouraging, short-term traders should wait with opening new positions until a bullish confirmation. Resistance is ahead at $0.56 and $0.64, while long-term support is found at $0.35.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 101 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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  1. Chris G

    October 18, 2017 at 11:08 pm

    I was happy for the buy opportunity. If ETH hits $380 and LTC hits $75, I’m going to give you a big, fat sloppy kiss Mate *chuckle* …

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Still Pushing Higher as Altcoins Mixed

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The day that kicked off in a bullish fashion for cryptocurrencies turned slightly negative for the majority of the coins in the second half of the session, as US stock markets re-opened after the long weekend. Bitcoin, Ethereum Classic, and Litecoin were the early leaders of the segment, but only the most valuable coin stayed bullish throughout the session, as both LTC and ETC ran into resistance in the second half of the day.

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BTC, which was boosted by the positive news regarding the Bitcoin Core Wallet’s SegWit introduction, topped $11,700 for the first time in more than a month, and the coin is getting close to the $200 billion mark in market value yet again.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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As the currency hasn’t completed the previous short-term correction, with the MACD indicator still showing overbought readings, another pullback in the coming days wouldn’t be a surprise, but the short-term uptrend is clearly intact.

The $13,000 and $14,250 levels are ahead as the next major targets, with a weaker level near $12,000, while support is now at $11,300, $10,000 and between $9000 and $9200.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

As we mentioned, Litecoin and Ethereum Classic both pulled back in late trading, while the largest altcoins, Ripple and Ethereum failed to rally in the first place, as the majors are diverging considerably. XRP and ETH drifted sideways throughout the session, while turning slightly lower later on and Ethereum is still struggling with the strong resistance ahead.

The declining trendline is just above the current price level, and the short-term relative weakness reinforced our view that further correction is likely before a clear break-out, with key support levels found at $845, $740, $625, and $575, and resistance above the trendline at $1000 and $1175.

(more…)

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Pre-Market: US Stocks Return on a Bearish Note after Long Weekend as Dollar Rallies

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After the hectic session on Friday, US equities took a long break thanks to the Presidents’ Day yesterday, but the technical setup that we have been monitoring remained intact. The major indices formed a short-term top exactly in the Line-In-The-Sand area that seemed likely to stop the post-crash rally at least temporarily.

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S&P 500, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The key levels to watch during today’s session will likely be 2735 and 2700 in the S&P 500 (25350 and 24800 in the Dow), but below 2735 the benefit of the doubt is on the bears’ side.

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So short-term, we continue to lean on the bearish side here, at least short-term and we expect the market to head for a test of the correction lows in the coming period. European and Asian markets continue to underperform their US peers, despite the strength in the Dollar, and that doesn’t bode well for bulls, as Europe has been spearheading the decline so far.

Dollar Still in the Center of Attention

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Europe bounced higher today following the release of the better than expected (but worse than the latest) German ZEW Economic Report but that didn’t stop the drift lower in the common currency. The EUR/USD pair fell back below 1.2350 after the fake-out on Friday that indeed proved to be a bull trap as we speculated, and a test of the rising trendline is now possible in the coming days.

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

On a positive note, the main safe-haven assets, the Japanese Yen and Gold, are also losing ground to the Greenback today, and that could point to a less significant shift in the risk appetite of investors.

That said, commodity currencies are still under pressure, and they have been a good proxy so far for judging the risk-on/risk-off divide, and with oil and copper turning lower this morning, another round of selling could be underway.

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Looking at the bond markets, rates are edging higher across the yield curve and the Volatility Index (VIX) is also on the rise again, and all looks set for another active day in US markets, with plenty of trading opportunities in equities and currencies alike.

We expect Wednesday to be the most interesting day of the week, as the arguably most important release, the FOMC meeting minutes will come out in late trading. Until then, the volatile, technicals-led trading could continue.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 101 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Litecoin and Bitcoin Hit New Rally Highs

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Another day, another round of bullish developments in the cryptocurrency segment, even in the face of a risk-off shift in traditional markets. Following the lead of Ethereum Classic, just like in the previous leg higher, Litecoin also pushed to new rally highs today in early trading following the LCC hard fork.

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BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

This time around, Bitcoin also joined the two undoubted leaders of the market, despite the still slightly overbought short-term momentum readings, while the also relatively strong Monero is still in its short-term correction. Boosted by positive news out of South Korea, the major coins reached the $515 billion mark in market capitalization, although several currencies, most notably Ethereum and Ripple are still underperforming.

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LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

We expect trading activity to pick up today, as US markets return to action, and that could cause more volatile moves than in the last few days. As correlations between the majors continue to decline, the individual charts are more and more important, and we expect rotation to continue between the coins.

Ethereum Classic Hits another Target, Up 200% off the Low

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

ETC broke-out of its short-term correction yesterday, staying ahead of the rest of the market in this cycle, and it rallied up to the next major resistance zone near $43, with only the all-time high remaining ahead as an obstacle before a new record high.

As we noted yesterday, the coin now is now not in the optimal long-term buy range, and it got downgraded to neutral in our trend model as well after turning bullish on the 2nd of February. That said, further gains are likely, and traders should still play the trend, but long-term investors could already cash in on some of the gains.

Apart from ETH and XRP, Bitcoin Cash, Cardano, IOTA, and EOS are also lagging the leaders today, while NEO also failed to substantially move above its short-term correction, despite yesterday’s strength.

Given the positive signs, we expect the rally to continue in the segment, even if several altcoins continue the current correction in the coming days.

Stay tuned for our detailed technical analysis later on today.

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Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 101 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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