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These stocks can offer more than 50% returns in a year

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Usually, the stocks are beaten down for a specific reason. Therefore, it is not a good strategy to buy the stocks when they are falling. However, at times, fear takes over, sinking the stocks to mouth-watering levels, from where the downside risk is limited but the upside opportunity is huge. So, without further ado, let’s look at the two beaten-down stocks that offer a good upside potential.

Key points

  1. Och-Ziff Capital Management stock price has plunged following its bribery scandal
  2. Its assets under management has fallen about 33%
  3. However, things look to be turning around as AUM increased marginally in August
  4. Rite Aid has sold 1932 stores to Walgreens Boots Alliance for $4.375 billion
  5. The remaining stores and business of Rite Aid are valued much higher than its current market cap
  6. It is a good takeover candidate

Och-Ziff Capital Management (NYSE: OZM)

OZM is a multi-style hedge fund, which has mostly outperformed its peers over the past decade.

Due to its outperformance, its assets under management (AUM) increased from $22.6 billion in 2006 to $47.5 billion in 2014. Between 2009 and 2014, its AUM doubled. However, since then, we find a consistent drop in its AUM. But why?

The firm was charged with bribing officials in various African nations, including the Libyan Gaddafi regime. As a result, after a two-year investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Department of Justice, the African subsidiary of the firm, OZ Africa, pleaded guilty and a settlement was reached, where OZM agreed to pay a fine of $413 million.

This led to a series of withdrawals by various pension funds, foundations, and endowments. As a result, the AUM of the company fell by about 33% from July 2015 to May 2017.

The hedge fund’s main sources of revenue are management fees and incentive fees. The management fees increases as the AUM increases, while the incentive fees depends on the fund’s performance.

Therefore, if we believe that OZM will turnaround, it will have to generate better returns than its peers to attract new capital, which will increase its AUM. If the hedge fund is successful in doing this, it will earn more revenues and therefore signal a turnaround, which will reflect in its prices.

Withdrawals have abated

The company reported that its AUM increased to $32.3 billion as of 01 September 2017, an increase of approximately $0.3 billion since 01 August 2017. This shows that the hedge fund has been able to attract some capital, though small and is retaining its existing investors. Considering its strong history of outperformance, we believe that it will be able to attract new investors and increase its AUM

OZM’s latest performance of its three funds is given below.

Now, let’s see how this scandal has affected the price of the OZM.

Weekly chart

The stock is down about 80% from its 2014 highs. This shows that the investors have severely punished the stock due to the scandal. However, since touching a low of $2.15 in April of this year, the stock has started a base formation. Though the stock is unlikely to rally back to $14 to $16 levels in a hurry, it can easily start a recovery, which can carry the stock to about $4.78 levels within a year, which is a 48% rise from Friday’s levels.

Daily chart

The stock has formed a cup and handle formation, which will complete on a breakout above $3.22. This pattern has a minimum target objective of $4.3. However, once the stock breaks out of $3.8, it doesn’t have any major resistance until $4.8. Therefore, we recommend buying the stock at $3.25 with a stop loss of $2.6.

Risks involved

The investor sentiment can sour due to geopolitical reasons or due to the failed tax reforms in the US. A risk-off trade will reduce the possibility of increasing OZM’s AUM. OZM can underperform its peers, which will make it difficult to attract new investors.

Rite Aid Corporation (NYSE: RAD)

RAD is a pharmacy chain, which recently sold 1932 stores, including three distribution centers, and related inventory to Walgreens Boots Alliance (NASDAQ: WBA) for $4.375 billion on a cash-free, debt-free basis.

Even after the sale, RAD is left with nearly 2600 stores along with six distribution centers, pharmacy benefit manager Envision Rx, RediClinic, and Health Dialog.

After valuing the remaining business of RAD, we find that the stock price offers a good risk to reward ratio.

Our investment thesis

In its latest Conference Call, Darren W. Karst, SVP, CAO, and CFO of RAD said: “Over 70% of the stores we are retaining at our wellness or customer world locations and per store sales and adjusted EBITDA at these stores is higher than the current chain average”.

This shows that RAD has not been left with unprofitable stores.

On calculation, we find that Walgreens has paid about $2.26 million for each store of RAD. Therefore, if we assume the same valuation for the remaining 2600 stores, we arrive at a figure of $5.87 billion.

Another major business that Rite Aid holds is the pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) Envision RX. RAD had paid about $2billion while acquiring the firm back in 2015. Though the jury is out whether RAD had overpaid for the acquisition, we shall consider the existing market metrics to value it.

Envision Rx generates an income of about $6 billion. If we consider a pure play PBM, Express Scripts, the market values it at about 0.4 times of sales. Even if we take a conservative estimate of 0.3 times sales, we arrive at a valuation of about $1.8 billion for Envision Rx.

Adding the two, we arrive at an asset valuation of $7.67 billion.

The company has a total gross debt of $7.20 billion. Let’s assume that the company uses about $4 billion of the total cash received from the sales of its stores to pay down the debt. That leaves a total liability of $3.2 billion.

By deducting the total liability from the asset valuation, we arrive at a figure of $4.47 billion. The total outstanding shares of the company is $1.05 billion. Therefore, even if we take a conservative estimate, RAD’s shares should be valued at $4.25. That is a good 116% higher than the closing price of $1.96 on September 29.

A good takeover candidate

There are rumors that Amazon is exploring options to enter the pharmacy business. If it does, RAD can be a good fit for it to kickstart its operations. Even otherwise, RAD’s valuation is likely to attract  the private equity players or other suitors.

Though the management has not been able to put up a credible performance in the past many quarters, with a fresh cash infusion, they have numerous opportunities to turnaround the company.

What do the charts forecast?

Weekly chart

The weekly chart shows that the stock has been a huge underperformer. Every once in a few years, it rallies close to $8 levels and then gives back its gains. The long-term chart doesn’t show any trend in the stock. Let’s see if we can get any clue from the daily charts?

Daily chart

The stock has fallen from above $8.5 levels in January of this year to below $2 levels. The stock is in a strong downtrend and it continues to make new 52-week lows. We don’t want to catch a falling knife. Therefore, we shall wait for the price to stop making new lows for three days and then buy about 50% of our total allocation. Remaining 50% position can be added once the stock sustains above $2.2 levels. The stock should gain strength once it breaks out of $2.8. A move to $4 is likely within a year. We can keep a stop loss of $1.

Risks involved

RAD, with its reduced size, will find it difficult to compete with the larger players. The management doesn’t utilize the cash received from Walgreens effectively. Amazon or any other player doesn’t show an interest in buying out RAD, which will deliver a further blow to the sentiment. RAD can continue to dig itself into bankruptcy.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 9 rated postsRakesh Upadhyay is a Technical Analyst and Portfolio Consultant for The Summit Group. He has more than a decade of experience as a private trader. His philosophy is to use technical analysis for momentum trading and fundamental analysis for long-term positions. Rakesh likes to keep himself fit by lifting weights and considers himself to be a spiritual person.




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4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. gullyfoyle

    October 4, 2017 at 9:19 am

    Interesting stuff as always Rakesh OZM seems ready for a decent cycle upwards. I don’t know enough about RAD’s industry to jump straight in, I’ll study the charts a little more but thanks for bringing the stock to my attention.

    What are your thoughts on the heavy buy volume on FMSA recently and the rumours of a buyout? Seems bullish to me, even though I have already sold 50% after that strong move.

    • Rakesh Upadhyay

      October 4, 2017 at 9:27 am

      Hello gullyfoyle,

      Thank you. The effort is always to try and find stocks that will offer decent returns with minimum risk.

      As you must have recovered most of your initial investment in FMSA, it would be a good strategy to wait for this acquisition news to play out. Rumors can do wonders to a stock.

      A rally to $6 and thereafter to $7.7 is likely. For now, let the remaining position ride. You can keep a trailing stop loss in a day or two, after watching the price action.

      With warm regards
      Rakesh Upadhyay

  2. idm2000

    October 15, 2017 at 4:19 am

    Thank you for the Article!
    what do you think about if Amazon selling drugs?
    Amazon considering selling online prescriptions
    and their decision is coming soon around thanksgiving day

    if they do, is there any chance to M&A with Rite Aid like whole food?

    • Rakesh Upadhyay

      October 15, 2017 at 5:50 am

      Hello idm2000,

      The rumors have been going on for quite some time about Amazon entering the business. However, the opinion is divided whether they will do so.

      Nevertheless, RAD certainly offers Amazon a quick way to gain a footing. Therefore, Amazon is likely to consider buying RAD, if it wants to sell drugs. However, looking at the fall in the price, the traders are not pricing that possibility, but, as we all know, it can change very quickly. Fundamentally, RAD looks to be undervalued, unless the RAD management wastes the money and the opportunity presented to them. It is worth a bet, but buy only after it stops falling. That might be around $1.6.

      With warm regards
      Rakesh Upadhyay

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Trade Recommendation: Basic Attention Token

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The Basic Attention Token/US Dollar (BAT/USD) pair climbed as high as $0.3877 on November 8, 2018. This move was fueled by the anticipation associated with the market’s Coinbase listing. Many market participants believed that Basic Attention Token would pump after getting listed on the exchange. This logic is sound but the market is highly illogical so it moved in an unexpected manner.

BAT was a sell on news as it dumped 28% overnight after the Coinbase listing. It has been dumping in the last few days but it looks like the end is in sight.

Technical analysis shows that Basic Attention Token is en route down to support of $0.2375. We are confident that this area will hold for several reasons.

First, the market’s dump is so steep. It happened with very little consolidation and almost no pullbacks. This is not sustainable. It’s only a matter of time before bears face exhaustion.

On top of that, we looked at the 4H RSI and saw that it is resting above support of 32. The indicator is in near oversold territory. This tells us that bears cannot keep up this rampage for long.

Lastly, volume has been declining since the November 8 dump. This is another indication of bearish exhaustion. Without volume, bears will not have the strength to take out support of $0.2375.

The strategy is to buy the dip as close to $0.2375 support as possible. If bulls hold this support, the market will likely consolidate for a bit before bouncing to our target of $0.30.

The process may take less than a month.

4-Hour Chart of Basic Attention Token/US Dollar on Binance

As of this writing, the Basic Attention Token/US Dollar pair is trading at $0.25822 on Bitfinex.

Summary of Strategy

Buy: As close to $0.2375 as possible.

Target: $0.30

Stop: $0.2273

 

Disclaimer: The writer owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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1 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 5 (1 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5)
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3.7 stars on average, based on 267 rated postsKiril is a CFA Charterholder and financial professional with 5+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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Trade Recommendation: Ripple

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Ripple (XRP/USD) has been the strongest big cap cryptocurrency lately. Even if Bitcoin Cash (BCH/USD) made some big moves last week, Ripple kept in pace as it made breakouts of its own. On November 6, 2018, XRP/USD took out resistance of $0.50 and climbed as high as $0.562.

This was an important breach as $0.50 used to be the market’s parabolic support. Ripple skyrocketed on December 14, 2017, when it went above $0.50. It was flipped into a key resistance on June 22, 2018, during the height of the bear market. XRP/USD has been trying ever since to take it back for good. Today might be the day it does so.

Technical analysis shows that Ripple is currently retesting support of $0.50. We believe that bulls will hold for the following reasons.

First and most important, the 200-day moving average (MA) just crawled below the daily candle. This is a huge development. Moving averages act as supports or resistances depending on whether they’re below or above the candle. So instead of looking up and finding strong resistance in the 200-day MA, it is under the daily candle, giving it a very nice boost.

In addition, $0.50 is a key psychological level. If the market is above it, it becomes a demand zone. On the other hand, if Ripple is below it, it becomes a supply area. Right now, Ripple is around that level.

Almost no one’s selling at these levels because participants know it is a buy zone. With no one selling, positions are scarce, hence the low volume.

The strategy is to buy at the current price of just under $0.50. If Ripple successfully completes the retest, the market will likely break out of the triangle and rally to our target of $0.70

The process may take a month.

Daily Chart of Ripple/US Dollar on Kraken


As of this writing, the Ripple/US Dollar pair is trading at $0.49475 on Kraken.

Summary of Strategy

Buy: Current price of $0.49554.

Target: $0.70

Stop: $0.47

 

Disclaimer: The writer owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.7 stars on average, based on 267 rated postsKiril is a CFA Charterholder and financial professional with 5+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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Trade Recommendation: Decentraland

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The Decentraland/Bitcoin pair (MANA/BTC) took out resistance of 1,230 satoshis on November 8, 2018. This triggered the breakout from the inverse head and shoulders reversal pattern on the 4-hour chart. The breakout looked strong as well. On that day, MANA/BTC generated volume that’s over 430% of its daily average. This sparked a rally to 1,462 satoshis on the same day.

Before November 8 closed, however, MANA/BTC started to show signs of weakness. It started to print a long wick on top of the 4-hour candle’s body. On top of that, the RSI was in extreme overbought territory. Also, it created a double top at resistance of 77 RSI. These are very good signals to start locking gains and that’s what we’re saw a few hours ago. Nevertheless, there may be a good chance to buy when MANA dips again.

Technical analysis shows that MANA/BTC is looking retest support of 1,230 satoshis. This pullback should give technical indicators time to cool off. More importantly, it helps the market create a new base of buyers. The new batch of bulls will be instrumental in the pair’s uptrend.

But first, MANA/BTC must complete the retest or else the breakout is not validated. We believe that bulls will be successful for a couple of reasons. First, 1,230 satoshis used to be a strong resistance. It was so strong that bulls needed seven attempts in three months to breach the resistance. Now that they’ve broken through, the firm resistance is flipped into durable support.

Second, we have the 21-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages crawling below the 4H candles. They will stand as additional supports to help keep the market above 1,230 satoshis.

The strategy is to buy the dip as close to 1,230 satoshis as possible. If MANA/BTC completes the retest, it will likely to launch a rally to our targets of 1,500 satoshis first and then 2,000 satoshis.

The process may take more than a month.

4-Hour Chart of Decentraland/Bitcoin on Binance


As of this writing, the Decentraland/Bitcoin pair is trading at 1,420 satoshis on Binance.

Summary of Strategy

Buy: As close to 1,230 satoshis as possible.

Target: 1,500 first and then 2,000 satoshis.

Stop: 1,150 satoshis.

 

NOTE: a satoshi is the smallest unit of Bitcoin, which equals to 0.00000001 BTC.

Disclaimer: The writer owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.7 stars on average, based on 267 rated postsKiril is a CFA Charterholder and financial professional with 5+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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