Connect with us

Recommendations

These stocks can offer more than 50% returns in a year

Published

on

Usually, the stocks are beaten down for a specific reason. Therefore, it is not a good strategy to buy the stocks when they are falling. However, at times, fear takes over, sinking the stocks to mouth-watering levels, from where the downside risk is limited but the upside opportunity is huge. So, without further ado, let’s look at the two beaten-down stocks that offer a good upside potential.

// -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace.

Key points

  1. Och-Ziff Capital Management stock price has plunged following its bribery scandal
  2. Its assets under management has fallen about 33%
  3. However, things look to be turning around as AUM increased marginally in August
  4. Rite Aid has sold 1932 stores to Walgreens Boots Alliance for $4.375 billion
  5. The remaining stores and business of Rite Aid are valued much higher than its current market cap
  6. It is a good takeover candidate

Och-Ziff Capital Management (NYSE: OZM)

OZM is a multi-style hedge fund, which has mostly outperformed its peers over the past decade.

Due to its outperformance, its assets under management (AUM) increased from $22.6 billion in 2006 to $47.5 billion in 2014. Between 2009 and 2014, its AUM doubled. However, since then, we find a consistent drop in its AUM. But why?

// -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD and get access to our secret group on Workplace. Click here to change your current membership -- //

The firm was charged with bribing officials in various African nations, including the Libyan Gaddafi regime. As a result, after a two-year investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Department of Justice, the African subsidiary of the firm, OZ Africa, pleaded guilty and a settlement was reached, where OZM agreed to pay a fine of $413 million.

This led to a series of withdrawals by various pension funds, foundations, and endowments. As a result, the AUM of the company fell by about 33% from July 2015 to May 2017.

The hedge fund’s main sources of revenue are management fees and incentive fees. The management fees increases as the AUM increases, while the incentive fees depends on the fund’s performance.

Therefore, if we believe that OZM will turnaround, it will have to generate better returns than its peers to attract new capital, which will increase its AUM. If the hedge fund is successful in doing this, it will earn more revenues and therefore signal a turnaround, which will reflect in its prices.

Withdrawals have abated

The company reported that its AUM increased to $32.3 billion as of 01 September 2017, an increase of approximately $0.3 billion since 01 August 2017. This shows that the hedge fund has been able to attract some capital, though small and is retaining its existing investors. Considering its strong history of outperformance, we believe that it will be able to attract new investors and increase its AUM

OZM’s latest performance of its three funds is given below.

Now, let’s see how this scandal has affected the price of the OZM.

Weekly chart

The stock is down about 80% from its 2014 highs. This shows that the investors have severely punished the stock due to the scandal. However, since touching a low of $2.15 in April of this year, the stock has started a base formation. Though the stock is unlikely to rally back to $14 to $16 levels in a hurry, it can easily start a recovery, which can carry the stock to about $4.78 levels within a year, which is a 48% rise from Friday’s levels.

Daily chart

The stock has formed a cup and handle formation, which will complete on a breakout above $3.22. This pattern has a minimum target objective of $4.3. However, once the stock breaks out of $3.8, it doesn’t have any major resistance until $4.8. Therefore, we recommend buying the stock at $3.25 with a stop loss of $2.6.

Risks involved

The investor sentiment can sour due to geopolitical reasons or due to the failed tax reforms in the US. A risk-off trade will reduce the possibility of increasing OZM’s AUM. OZM can underperform its peers, which will make it difficult to attract new investors.

Rite Aid Corporation (NYSE: RAD)

RAD is a pharmacy chain, which recently sold 1932 stores, including three distribution centers, and related inventory to Walgreens Boots Alliance (NASDAQ: WBA) for $4.375 billion on a cash-free, debt-free basis.

Even after the sale, RAD is left with nearly 2600 stores along with six distribution centers, pharmacy benefit manager Envision Rx, RediClinic, and Health Dialog.

After valuing the remaining business of RAD, we find that the stock price offers a good risk to reward ratio.

Our investment thesis

In its latest Conference Call, Darren W. Karst, SVP, CAO, and CFO of RAD said: “Over 70% of the stores we are retaining at our wellness or customer world locations and per store sales and adjusted EBITDA at these stores is higher than the current chain average”.

This shows that RAD has not been left with unprofitable stores.

On calculation, we find that Walgreens has paid about $2.26 million for each store of RAD. Therefore, if we assume the same valuation for the remaining 2600 stores, we arrive at a figure of $5.87 billion.

Another major business that Rite Aid holds is the pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) Envision RX. RAD had paid about $2billion while acquiring the firm back in 2015. Though the jury is out whether RAD had overpaid for the acquisition, we shall consider the existing market metrics to value it.

Envision Rx generates an income of about $6 billion. If we consider a pure play PBM, Express Scripts, the market values it at about 0.4 times of sales. Even if we take a conservative estimate of 0.3 times sales, we arrive at a valuation of about $1.8 billion for Envision Rx.

Adding the two, we arrive at an asset valuation of $7.67 billion.

The company has a total gross debt of $7.20 billion. Let’s assume that the company uses about $4 billion of the total cash received from the sales of its stores to pay down the debt. That leaves a total liability of $3.2 billion.

By deducting the total liability from the asset valuation, we arrive at a figure of $4.47 billion. The total outstanding shares of the company is $1.05 billion. Therefore, even if we take a conservative estimate, RAD’s shares should be valued at $4.25. That is a good 116% higher than the closing price of $1.96 on September 29.

A good takeover candidate

There are rumors that Amazon is exploring options to enter the pharmacy business. If it does, RAD can be a good fit for it to kickstart its operations. Even otherwise, RAD’s valuation is likely to attract  the private equity players or other suitors.

Though the management has not been able to put up a credible performance in the past many quarters, with a fresh cash infusion, they have numerous opportunities to turnaround the company.

What do the charts forecast?

Weekly chart

The weekly chart shows that the stock has been a huge underperformer. Every once in a few years, it rallies close to $8 levels and then gives back its gains. The long-term chart doesn’t show any trend in the stock. Let’s see if we can get any clue from the daily charts?

Daily chart

The stock has fallen from above $8.5 levels in January of this year to below $2 levels. The stock is in a strong downtrend and it continues to make new 52-week lows. We don’t want to catch a falling knife. Therefore, we shall wait for the price to stop making new lows for three days and then buy about 50% of our total allocation. Remaining 50% position can be added once the stock sustains above $2.2 levels. The stock should gain strength once it breaks out of $2.8. A move to $4 is likely within a year. We can keep a stop loss of $1.

Risks involved

RAD, with its reduced size, will find it difficult to compete with the larger players. The management doesn’t utilize the cash received from Walgreens effectively. Amazon or any other player doesn’t show an interest in buying out RAD, which will deliver a further blow to the sentiment. RAD can continue to dig itself into bankruptcy.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5 (0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.7 stars on average, based on 9 rated postsRakesh Upadhyay is a Technical Analyst and Portfolio Consultant for The Summit Group. He has more than a decade of experience as a private trader. His philosophy is to use technical analysis for momentum trading and fundamental analysis for long-term positions. Rakesh likes to keep himself fit by lifting weights and considers himself to be a spiritual person.




Feedback or Requests?

4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. gullyfoyle

    October 4, 2017 at 9:19 am

    Interesting stuff as always Rakesh OZM seems ready for a decent cycle upwards. I don’t know enough about RAD’s industry to jump straight in, I’ll study the charts a little more but thanks for bringing the stock to my attention.

    What are your thoughts on the heavy buy volume on FMSA recently and the rumours of a buyout? Seems bullish to me, even though I have already sold 50% after that strong move.

    • Rakesh Upadhyay

      October 4, 2017 at 9:27 am

      Hello gullyfoyle,

      Thank you. The effort is always to try and find stocks that will offer decent returns with minimum risk.

      As you must have recovered most of your initial investment in FMSA, it would be a good strategy to wait for this acquisition news to play out. Rumors can do wonders to a stock.

      A rally to $6 and thereafter to $7.7 is likely. For now, let the remaining position ride. You can keep a trailing stop loss in a day or two, after watching the price action.

      With warm regards
      Rakesh Upadhyay

  2. idm2000

    October 15, 2017 at 4:19 am

    Thank you for the Article!
    what do you think about if Amazon selling drugs?
    Amazon considering selling online prescriptions
    and their decision is coming soon around thanksgiving day

    if they do, is there any chance to M&A with Rite Aid like whole food?

    • Rakesh Upadhyay

      October 15, 2017 at 5:50 am

      Hello idm2000,

      The rumors have been going on for quite some time about Amazon entering the business. However, the opinion is divided whether they will do so.

      Nevertheless, RAD certainly offers Amazon a quick way to gain a footing. Therefore, Amazon is likely to consider buying RAD, if it wants to sell drugs. However, looking at the fall in the price, the traders are not pricing that possibility, but, as we all know, it can change very quickly. Fundamentally, RAD looks to be undervalued, unless the RAD management wastes the money and the opportunity presented to them. It is worth a bet, but buy only after it stops falling. That might be around $1.6.

      With warm regards
      Rakesh Upadhyay

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Recommendations

Trade Recommendation: VCash/Bitcoin

Published

on

 

// -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace.

The Vcash/Bitcoin pair (XVC/BTC) pair launched its bull run on December 25, 2017 when it took out resistance of 0.00006. The price action triggered the rounding bottom reversal pattern on the daily chart which catapulted the pair to as high as 0.00008801 on January 15, 2018. In the less than one month, XVC/BTC grew by over 46%.

As the market achieved the target of the reversal pattern, breakout players started to dump positions. The pair dropped to 0.00005443 on January 17. While bottom pickers bought the dip, they could only inspire a dead cat bounce to 0.00006822 on January 18. The lower high was a signal that bulls are no longer in control.

Market participants responded by locking gains or cutting losses to preserve their capital. XVC/BTC then posted a series of lower highs and lower lows until recent price action.

// -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD and get access to our secret group on Workplace. Click here to change your current membership -- //

Technical analysis show that Vcash/Bitcoin has broken below 0.000035 support on April 5. However, bulls stepped in and lifted the pair to as high as 0.00004035, today April 23. This indicates that the break below 0.000035 was a false breakdown. The bear trap could ignite a rally that can push the market to our target.

The strategy is to buy as close to 0.000038. As long as 0.000035 support holds, the market may have enough momentum to climb to our target of 0.00006.

The process may take a month.

Daily Chart of XVC/BTC on Poloniex

As of this writing, the Vcash/Bitcoin pair is trading at 0.00003896 on Poloniex.

Summary of Strategy

Buy: As close to 0.000038 as possible.

Target: 0.00006

Stop: 0.000035

 

Disclaimer: The writer owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5 (0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

3.6 stars on average, based on 149 rated postsKiril is a financial professional with 4+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Recommendations

Trade Recommendation: NZD/HKD

Published

on

The New Zealand Dollar/Hong Kong Dollar pair ignited its bull run on May 2009 when it took out resistance of 4.50. With a solid base below 4.50, the pair sustained a long uptrend that propelled it to as high as 6.89126 in August 2011. In just over two years, the New Zealand Dollar rose by 53% against the Hong Kong Dollar. Those who followed the trend started to take profits.

// -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace.

As the market succumbed to selling pressure, it dropped to 5.7469 in November 2011. The pair worked hard to stay above 5.80 support while creating a series of higher lows to keep its uptrend alive. With all that effort, however, the market could only generate a lower high of 6.84868 in July 2014.

The price action was a signal that bulls were exhausted. Participants began to dump their positions to preserve their capital gains. The heavy selling pressure forced the pair to snap 5.80 support in May 2015. From that point, the market posted consecutive red candles on the monthly chart until it found the bottom at 4.71929 in August 2015. NZD/HKD has been rallying since, and it appears primed to start another uptrend.

Technical analysis show that the New Zealand Dollar/Hong Kong Dollar pair is poised to take out resistance of 5.80 and trigger the large cup and handle reversal pattern on the weekly chart. Looking at the RSI, the pair is far from overbought territory. It has a lot of room complete the breakout and stay above 5.80.

// -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD and get access to our secret group on Workplace. Click here to change your current membership -- //

The strategy is to buy the breakout at 5.80. If bulls complete the breakout, they will likely create a base and may crawl to our target of 6.75. The process may take a year.

Weekly Chart of NZD/HKD on OANDA

As of this writing, the NZD/HKD pair is trading at 5.65688.

Summary of Strategy

Buy: Breakout at 5.80.

Target: 6.75

Stop: 5.65 after the breakout.

 

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5 (0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

3.6 stars on average, based on 149 rated postsKiril is a financial professional with 4+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Recommendations

Trade Recommendation: QTUM

Published

on

QTUM could be ready for a quantum leap to the upside. On the QTUMBTC daily chart we see the price has surpassed and closed above the Monthly Pivot Range high, this is a significant event in that it demonstrates the bias has shifted from the many weeks of bearishness, to one of bullishness.

// -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace.

The 14 Day Pivot Moving Average (red line) has crossed the yellow 30 Day Pivot MA and the white 50 Day Pivot MA so this is clearly bullish . There are no other key Pivot levels that are in the way of a long term move up.

The action to take is to place a buy order to enter the market long. The support level near term should be the Monthly Pivot high but look for longer term support all the way down to the Monthly Pivot low. This is a long term trade so be patient by placing your stop loss far enough away to avoid getting prematurely stopped out.

This is a good risk reward ratio within a high probability setup with a lot of support.

// -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD and get access to our secret group on Workplace. Click here to change your current membership -- //

Entry Price: 22.00
Stop Loss: 19.90
Profit Targets: First profit target 27.88. Second profit target 34.90. Once price reaches 25.50 raise the stop loss to breakeven. Then if the market follows through to higher levels manage the trade by trailing a stop loss 2.00 points behind until second profit target is reached or stopped out.

Disclaimer: The writer owns Litecoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
1 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 5 (1 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

3.8 stars on average, based on 45 rated postsI am the founder of VirtuesTrading.com, where traders can learn to use my Virtues Trading System. Formerly a Commodity Trading Advisor, I got my start in the Energy and Precious Metals Options & Futures pits of the New York Mercantile Exchange. I operate on the premise of efficient markets, the management of risk through the analyzation of price action and technical indicators. I have a BA in International Relations from the University of Southern California.




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

A part of CCN

Hacked.com is Neutral and Unbiased

Hacked.com and its team members have pledged to reject any form of advertisement or sponsorships from 3rd parties. We will always be neutral and we strive towards a fully unbiased view on all topics. Whenever an author has a conflicting interest, that should be clearly stated in the post itself with a disclaimer. If you suspect that one of our team members are biased, please notify me immediately at jonas.borchgrevink(at)hacked.com.

Trending