Saxo Bank Expects Cryptocurrency Prices to ‘Springboard’ in Second Quarter
After a dismal first quarter, cryptocurrency prices may be entering a bullish cycle, according to analysts at Denmark’s Saxo Bank. The financial institution recently issued an optimistic outlook on the asset class but warned that downside risks remain.
The Bullish Case for Cryptocurrency
In Saxo’s quarterly outlook report, analyst Jacob Pouncey argued that cryptocurrencies could be poised for a comeback in the second quarter as bearish pressures continue to fade. Recent acquisitions of crypto exchanges by major financial firms and the consolidation of the blockchain industry make Q2 a possible venue for a large price recovery.
“The steep losses have driven industry consolidation. The rush to market was badly timed and a number of crypto asset hedge funds, exchanges, and ICOs have shut down already,” he said.
“However, several events could serve as springboards for a cryptocurrency bull market in Q2, whether it is through fundamental drivers, or it is just a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
Advocates of cryptocurrencies have a lot more to be optimistic about. The digital asset class has gained about a third in the last week, with combined prices reaching their highest level since mid-March. The rally has been associated with a steep recovery in the value of altcoins, which now account for nearly 61% of the total market.
Amid the latest downturn, altcoins saw their share of the total market drop to around 54%.
The Saxo analyst made another interesting observation: blue-chip cryptocurrencies have historically shown unique price independence in the face of financial-market shocks. As money continues to flow from the equity markets, so-called “uncorrelated assets” such as bitcoin could be poised to benefit.
Research has shown that bitcoin exhibits low correlation of returns, which means it behaves independently of other asset classes. We saw a breakdown of this quality earlier this year as cryptos seemingly traded in the same direction as stocks (likely due to the influx of new traders to the market).
When it comes to investing, low correlation essentially refers to price independence. This means blue-chip cryptocurrencies like bitcoin are influenced by distinct market forces that do not always apply to other asset classes. Likewise, traditional politico-economic drivers do not influence digital assets to the same degree.
The Saxo report was released on Tuesday, so there’s a good chance that the cryptocurrency forecast was influenced by the recent uptrend in prices. However, Pouncey also indicated that the future presents more opportunity for stability as “weak hands” are purged from the market after the recent bearish cycle. This outlook is shared by many, who expect crypto assets to extend their recovery in the short-to-medium term.
Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.
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