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Analysis

Rising Cryptocurrency Analysis: Stratis, Siacoin, Steem, Factom, Lisk

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A new crop of rising stars seems to be appearing in the crypto-coin market on a daily basis, as ICO’s are taking place in all kinds of segments, while some of the running projects get boosted by the market on favorable news announcements or trading activity. These coins provide good opportunities for traders, but be aware, risks might also be higher, so careful with those margin accounts!

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Thanks to our ICO analysis series, you can get ahead of the curve, and find the winners of the future before they even start circulating. Today, we will take a look at the five of the up and coming coins that are already out in the wild, or actually have been there for quite a while, from a trader’s perspective.

Interested in another small cap coin or coins? Let us know in the comment section, and we will post an analysis in the coming days!

Stratis

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Stratis/BTC, 4-Hour

Stratis crossed the $1 billion market value recently, racing to the 7th place of the market cap list according to Coinmarketcap. If you recall it wasn’t long ago, that Ethereum crossed this mark (earlier this year), and now it is north of $25 billion. The coin has been consolidating since last week’s extraordinary rise, as we expected after running into resistance near 0.0045 on the Bitcoin pair. While the coin is not on a buy signal as of now, it should on traders’ watchlists, as a move out of the short-term pattern could trigger another leg higher in both the BTC and the USD pairas we expected after running into resistance near 0.0045 on the Bitcoin pair. While the coin is not on a buy signal as of now, it should on traders’ watchlists, as a move out of the short-term pattern could trigger another leg higher in both the BTC and the USD pair

Steem

Steem/BTC, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Steem is also right near the top 10 of the capitalization list following the break-out of a month-long consolidation just a few days ago. The coin surged above the prior high at 0.00075, and got close to 0.001 before entering a short-term correction. That said, Steem remains on a buy signal on the BTC pair, above the prior high. Although this is probably not the best point to enter an investment position, short-term traders could still ride the wave higher, despite the overbought readings on the MACD.

Siacoin

Siacoin/BTC, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Siacoin is getting close to a possible entry point near the May highs on the BTC pair. Just above the 0.0000053 level, as the current short-trm consolidation pattern carried the coin back to the strong support/resistance zone. The MACD is approaching neutral territory, and although further consolidation is possible, a move out of the correction could set a up a rally towards the prior highs and above that to the 0.00000875 level.

Factom

Factom/BTC, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Factom ran into resistance just above the 0.012 level yesterday, and it is now probably headed back to test the prior high just below the 0.010 level on the BTC pair. There is a convergence zone with the rising short-term trendline near that zone, which could provide a good entry point for short-term traders. The coin recently broke-out from a lengthy consolidation zone, which could serve as a base for further gains in the coming weeks.

Lisk

Lisk/BTC, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Lisk exploded above its prior high this week, and quickly reached the 100% Fibonacci-extension resistance. The coin pulled-back off that level, but remains well above the 0.00075 break-out level, while it’s trying to establish a swing low. We expect more consolidation before a break-out above 0.0012, but as a support zone is likely to develop near the 0.00085 Fibonacci level, short-term traders could consider new positions in anticipation  of a break-out.

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



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19 Comments

19 Comments

  1. jedadoo

    June 7, 2017 at 3:10 pm

    Thank you! I like to see some analysis on some new coins and technologies available.

  2. hidemu

    June 7, 2017 at 3:13 pm

    Don’t forget about XVG Verge

    • Mate Cser

      June 7, 2017 at 3:20 pm

      Thanks for the feedback! Will be included in the next article!

  3. muellerro

    June 7, 2017 at 3:24 pm

    Very interesting coverage. Can anybody tell me how and where these coins be traded?

    • Mate Cser

      June 7, 2017 at 3:31 pm

      They can all be traded at Poloniex!

      • muellerro

        June 7, 2017 at 3:51 pm

        Thanks @Mate Cser!

      • ezra

        June 7, 2017 at 3:55 pm

        I live in NY and poloniex doesn’t work here do you know of any other platform that’s good?

        • Mate Cser

          June 7, 2017 at 4:46 pm

          Bittrex and Kraken also have a wide selection of altcoins!

          • ezra

            June 7, 2017 at 8:31 pm

            Thanks! yes i joined Bittrex just now. kraken also doesn’t seem to work in New York.

        • kaifovo

          June 7, 2017 at 5:21 pm

          In US i use coinbase.com to transfer money and then bittrex.com to trade above mentioned currencies. I’m in TX.

  4. cryptohub

    June 7, 2017 at 3:47 pm

    Could you add XVG,ABY, RDD to your analysis

    • Mate Cser

      June 7, 2017 at 4:42 pm

      Sure, Thanks for the input!

  5. Antaris

    June 7, 2017 at 4:08 pm

    Hi Mate,could you please analize Aragon tokens ?
    Thanks for your great job over here !

    • Mate Cser

      June 7, 2017 at 4:42 pm

      Hi Antaris, We will include them soon1 Thanks for the feedback!

  6. Jorn van Hoorn

    June 7, 2017 at 6:31 pm

    Thanx! What do you think of the fact there’s no cap on the Tezos fundraiser being conducted by the Tezos foundation?

  7. ankoorgupta9

    June 7, 2017 at 7:26 pm

    What are the views on ARK , BAT, BCAP, Byteball, Gnosis

    • Mate Cser

      June 7, 2017 at 7:30 pm

      We will cover those in our coming updates! Thanks!

  8. Ershad

    June 8, 2017 at 8:17 pm

    Hi Mate,

    Thanks for your analysis, I wanted to ask whats the target for Steem? Are we likely to sell $10 in the near future?

    Kind regards,
    Ershad

    • Mate Cser

      June 9, 2017 at 3:46 am

      Hello Ershad,

      I would say that it’s possible, but it’s still a long shot. My guess is late 2017.

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Analysis

Will Crude Oil Reach $68 a Barrel in 2016?

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Crude oil prices are likely to climb close to $68 per barrel mark in 2018. We believe that oil supply will be hit due to a few geopolitical issues if they play out as we expect. Additionally, though high crude prices will be a strong incentive for the shale oil drillers to pump more, their increase is unlikely to tilt the deficit into oversupply.

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Key observations

  1. The OPEC production cut is tilting the crude oil markets to a balance
  2. Rise in the shale oil production is unlikely to equal the increase in demand in 2018
  3. The geopolitical issues can tilt the markets into a deficit
  4. If crude oil breaks out of $55 per barrel, a move to $68 is likely

What are the current market conditions?

OPEC oil production cuts

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The November 2016 production cut by OPEC and its allies is helping the market stabilize. The US crude stockpiles have been decreasing over the past few months, which indicates that the OPEC cuts are having their desired effect, albeit slowly.

The stockpiles in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) nations is down to just under 3 billion barrels, which is roughly 171 million barrels above the 5-year average. The OPEC wants to bring the inventory levels below the 5-year average.

Reports suggest that the OPEC and its allies will extend the deal, which is set to expire in March 2018 by another 9-months. However, the oil cartel is unlikely to deepen the cuts. In the September quarter, it had produced 32.9 million barrels per day (bpd), as against 33.4 million bpd production in November 2016, prior to the production cut agreement.

In the fourth quarter of this year, the OPEC production is expected to further decline to 32.7 million bpd.

US shale oil production

The main threat to any recovery in crude oil prices is the ever-increasing production of the US shale oil drillers. US crude oil production, which averaged about 9.2 million bpd in the first quarter of this year has increased to 9.56 million bpd by the third-quarter.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the average US crude oil production to increase to 9.9 million bpd in 2018, compared to 9.2 million bpd in 2017. That is an addition of 700,000 bpd of supply.

On the other hand, Investment bank Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co (TPH) expects US crude oil production to reach 10.2 million barrels in 2018.

So, on an average, crude oil production by the shale oil drillers is expected to increase by 700,000 bpd to 1 million bpd.

Demand increase in 2018

The global economy is growing at a decent pace, which is expected to increase the demand for crude oil. The US EIA expects the global demand to increase by 1.6 million bpd in 2018.

Therefore, with everything else being equal, this will lead to a faster reduction in crude oil inventory and an improvement in sentiment, but not a large increase in price.

So, why do we expect crude oil prices to increase next year?

What are the events that have changed in the recent past that warrant a change in our view?

For the past two years, oil prices have not responded to geopolitical tensions because of the supply glut.

However, next year, when the markets are in a balance, any geopolitical event that can have an effect on the supply side will tilt the market to a deficit, resulting in a rally in oil prices. What are these events?

The Iran sanctions

President Donald Trump has been a critic of the deal between the US and Iran, which led to lifting of sanctions on the Islamic nation. The deal is called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). As a result of this deal, Iran was able to resume its exports, which have skyrocketed from about 1 million bpd in 2013 to about 2.3 million bpd in September 2017.

President Trump decertified the deal on October 13 but has still not quit the deal. He wants the deal to be renegotiated, however, the remaining countries who were party to the deal and Iran are unwilling to do so.

This creates a tension between the US and Iran. Chances are that President Trump will withdraw from the deal sometime next year to fulfill his pre-election promise of ripping the deal apart.

What are the repercussions if the US quits the deal?

Presently, the EU nations are not in favor of scrapping the deal with Iran. If the US unilaterally withdraws from the deal, Iran’s exports are unlikely to have an immediate effect, until the EU decides to support it. After all, EU has been the major consumer of Iranian oil since sanctions were lifted.

However, Iran’s fields are aging. They need fresh investments to keep the oil flowing at the current rate. If the US quits the deal, it is unlikely that major oil companies, that have operations in the US will enter Iran. This can limit the capital flows to the Islamic nation’s oil sector.

As an immediate effect, the US sanctions will “put at risk a few hundred thousand barrels of Iranian exports,” Goldman Sachs wrote in a research note. However, these are only estimates and the real impact will be known only after the US withdraws from the deal. Due to the uncertainty, the markets are likely to boost prices higher, until it gets a clear picture of the effects.

Geopolitical tensions in the gulf can lead to a severe shortage of oil

The northern Iraq region – Kurdistan – is a semi-autonomous region, which recently declared Independence from Iraq. This has led to a conflict between the two. While the Iraqi forces have declared their victory in the important oil-rich region of Kirkuk, the victory is not final because the Kurdish army did not put up a fight initially to defend the oil-rich region.

However, both the Kurdish peshmerga and the Iraqi army have been trained by the US. Therefore, if the conflict is not resolved quickly, through a dialogue, it can turn bloody and lead to disruption of about 600,000 bpd of oil supply.

“Oil prices could spike a lot higher on this development because this time is different, after years of war in the region. The battle, finally, is for the oil, and no other reason. In other words, here we go,” John Kilduff, partner at energy-focused investment manager Again Capital, told CNBC.

Unless a permanent solution is reached, we expect these issues to linger on and again crop up in 2018, propping prices higher.

What does the chart forecast?

The WTI crude has been broadly trading in a range of $42 and $55. Oil has taken support close to the $42 levels four times in the past year and a half. Therefore, this is a strong support level and can be used as a stop loss for our positions.

On the upside, the zone between $50 and $55 has been a strong resistance. Oil has struggled to breakout of this zone. However, if any geopolitical event triggers a breakout above $55, a rally to $68 levels is likely, which is the minimum target objective of a breakout from the range.

How can we benefit, if crude rallies according to our expectations?

The best way to benefit from the rise in crude oil is to trade the oil futures, but due to their volatility, it is not advisable to hold it for the long-term.

The oil-based ETFs can offer an opportunity to take a position in oil. Individual energy stocks are also another means of benefitting from a rally in crude oil.

We shall soon identify the best oil-based ETF and stocks that can offer good returns in 2018.

Risk to our analysis

Our analysis is based on the assumption that the existing geopolitical issues are unlikely to be sorted out within the next year. However, a good dialogue can easily put an end to these, thereby invalidating any risk-premium to crude oil.

Also, consistent high prices above $50 can increase the US shale oil production, much higher than the currently anticipated levels. This will prevent the markets from balancing out.

Due to infighting among its members, the OPEC and its allies can opt out of the production cut deal,  which will boost supply and can lead to a crash in crude oil prices.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Stocks Shoot for the Moon as Senate Passes Budget

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Friday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2574 0.53%
DAX 12991 0.05%
WTI Crude Oil 51.60 0.25%
GOLD 1283.00 -0.49%
Bitcoin 6038 6.40%
EUR/USD 1.1776 -0.64%

Financial markets got very active today thanks to the US Senate’s decision to pass the 2018 budget, paving the way for the tax reform plan that’s been welcomed by investors in recent weeks. The Dollar, equities, and Treasury yields all got substantially higher with the Dow and the S&P 500 scoring yet another all-time high. The NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 failed to follow the former benchmarks to record highs, but the short-term rally is still definitely intact, despite the overbought readings and the overvaluation issues.

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Dow 30, Daily Chart Analysis

Forex markets were also very active as the Dollar cruised higher against all of its major counterparts, with the exception of the Great British Pound that rebounded strongly after the optimistic words of Angela Merkel regarding the Brexit process. The New Zealand Dollar continued yesterday’s negative trend, while the Canadian Dollar was also hit hard amid the early decline in the price of oil and the negative economic surprises from the country.

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Gold is down yet again, as it failed to reclaim the $1300 level amid the improved global sentiment that also weighed on the Japanese Yen as well. The Yen’s weakness helped the Nikkei to another two-decade high, as the USD/JPY pair surged to 113.50 for the first time since July.

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin’s new all-time high made headlines in the segment today, as the most valuable coin surged past $6000 for the first time ever, even as the currency traded as low as $5100 just a few days ago. BTC also reached $100 billion in market cap, and the coin accounts for more than 57% of the total value of the crypto segment.

The other majors are virtually unchanged despite Bitcoin’s rise, with only IOTA losing significant ground and Ripple trading in a volatile fashion after its crazy week. Litecoin and Monero also performed relatively well, while Ethereum got stuck below the $315 line yet again, and NEO finally settled down, although it continues to trade below the crucial $30 level.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Friday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
14:30 CANADA CPI 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
14:30 CANADA Core Retail Sales -0.7% 0.3% 0.2%
16:00 US Existing Home Sales 5.39 mill 5.32 mill 5.35 mill

Key Economic Releases on Monday

Time, CET Country Release Expected Previous
14:30 CANADA Wholesale Sales 1.1% 1.5%

Featured image from Shutterstock

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Analysis

Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bitcoin Tests $6000 as Market Settles Down

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Bitcoin is in the center of attention yet again, as the most valuable coin is knocking on the door of the $100 billion level in market capitalization. The coin touched our long-term target at $6000 on several exchanges, but it’s now trading slightly below the historic level.

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While the rest of the market is quiet, BTC is very active, and it could be in for a volatile weekend, as despite the long-term overbought readings, the short-term uptrend is clearly intact. That said, investors should avoid opening new positions here, and consider lowering their exposure further, while traders should only trade with smaller than usual sizes. Support levels are found at $5400, $5000, and near the $4650 level.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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As the rest of the majors are still recovering from the recent correction, the total value of the segment is below its all-time high, with BTC’s dominance now standing at 57%. Most of the largest coins are little changed, with Monero and Liteocin showing considerable strength and IOTA still being the weakest of the majors. With all attention on BTC let’s see how the most traded altcoins look before the weekend.

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