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Analysis

Why Prominent Bitcoin Researchers Perceive Chinese Exchange Ban Positively

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Earlier this week, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), the Chinese government, and its financial regulators have officially requested local bitcoin exchanges and trading platforms to halt their services by the end of September. OKCoin and Huobi, two largest exchanges in China, were granted leeway to operate until the end of October.

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Throughout the past two weeks, amidst anticipation on the nationwide ban on Chinese exchanges, bitcoin price fell from $4,100 to $2,950. But, as soon as the ban was finalized and was announced by state-owned finance news publication Caixin, bitcoin price rebounded from $2,900 to $3,850. Analysts including WhalePanda noted that many traders were looking to buy the dip as bitcoin price dipped below the $3,000 mark.

The vast majority of analysts perceive the major drop in bitcoin price as a result of the nationwide ban on Chinese bitcoin exchanges as an overreaction from traders. China only accounted for around 10 to 13 percent of global bitcoin trades prior to the ban and thus, the ban should really have only affected 10 to 13 percent of traders. Yet, speculators in the US, Japan and South Korea panic sold as rumors surfaced, leading to a major correction on bitcoin price.

Still, prominent bitcoin researchers including Tuur Demeester, long-time bitcoin investor and editor in chief at Adamant Research, explained that in the long-term, the exit of the Chinese bitcoin exchange market could be positive for bitcoin. More to that, he explained that even a nationwide ban on bitcoin itself, or bitcoin transactions, could positively affect the global bitcoin market.

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Demeester noted that if the Chinese government decides to censor bitcoin transactions, hashrate will decline and cause slower transactions. He emphasized that it will most likely cause major problems for BitcoinCash because most of its mining activities are conducted by Chinese mining pool operators.

But, Demeester also explained that China’s censorship of bitcoin will also lead to rapid emergence of decentralized exchanges (peer to peer trading platforms), bitcoin mixing tools, tor and satellite nodes, which will drastically improve privacy and security measures for bitcoin users.

In the past two weeks, the Chinese government has banned initial coin offerings (ICOs) and bitcoin trading platforms. Local financial regulators clarified that they do not intend to ban bitcoin as a whole and some analysts in Beijing expect the bitcoin exchange ban to be temporary until the PBoC releases a licensing program for trading platforms.

However, key figures within the cryptocurrency sector that were in China amidst the controversial ICO and bitcoin exchange ban including Simon Dixon revealed the possibility of the Chinese government banning bitcoin as a whole. Although the rumor or the source remain unverified, BnkToTheFuture co-founder and CEO Simon Dixon stated:

The report remains unverified and unconfirmed by local sources and trusted news publications such as Caixin. But, in consideration of China’s unpredictable nature, it is difficult to dismiss the premise in which the government pursues a general ban on bitcoin itself, as it did in 2013.

There are several analysts that believe the report is true and that a ban on bitcoin transactions could come in effect. While it is hard to imagine how such a policy and regulation would be implemented, the Chinese government’s strong restriction on bitcoin could completely isolate the Chinese market from the global bitcoin industry.

Already, traders have begun to move out of China to Japan and South Korea. Overnight, Japan has become the largest bitcoin exchange market in the world, overtaking the US. China’s ban on bitcoin exchanges will likely allow Japan and Hong Kong to evolve as new powerhouse markets within the global bitcoin market.

Some speculate that if Chinese President Xi Jinping becomes re-elected in November of 2017, President Xi, who is widely known as an avid advocate for free markets, could indirectly encourage local financial regulators to re-enable bitcoin trading and other cryptocurrency-related activities such as ICOs.

As cryptocurrency investor Jon Creasy wrote:

“My prediction is this: as soon as President Xi Jinping is reelected — and he will be — conservative, free(er)-trade legislation will be put in place, and Bitcoin exchanges will be reinstated. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Chinese government encouraging certain exchanges and cryptocurrencies, once this legislation hits. NEO already seems to be in their good graces.”

Not only will the ban on bitcoin exchanges strengthen other well regulated markets such as Japan and South Korea, it will also lead to the emergence of more advanced peer to peer bitcoin markets and decentralized trading platforms.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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2 Comments

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  1. FalconX

    September 17, 2017 at 8:26 pm

    More Power to the People. Bitcoin is going to explode even more once China gets back in the game.

  2. Lakshmana

    September 18, 2017 at 12:56 am

    Good read, thank you for this one, Joseph.

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Analysis

Crypto Update: Chinese Crackdown Triggers Next Leg of Correction

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The cryptocurrency segment is crashing again, with double-digit losses across the board, and with several coins shedding around 30% in one day amid the widespread and heavy selling. The sell-off was triggered by reports on a new set of measures by the Chinese authorities limiting crypto trading, which added to the still looming South Korea related regulation worries. Bitcoin tested the mini-crash lows at $11,300 today in early trading, dipping slightly below that level before a strong bounce started.

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The most valuable coin is now between two crucial support/resistance lines, with the other ahead at $13,000, and as the downtrend is entering its more mature phase the $10,000 and $9,200 levels could come in play, with a possible dip to the support zone near $7,650.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

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Interestingly, the coin is still hovering within the daily range of the crash of December 22nd, and that points to a very active and volatile period ahead near the low at $11,300, as automatic orders will likely get triggered on both sides of the market.

The short-term setup is bearish, and although it’s possible that the primary support level will hold, odds still favor another leg lower, following the exponential run-up at the end of last year that pushed sentiment into bullish extremes.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Altcoins

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Music: One Overlooked Use Case

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So far in this year, Ethereum has been the crypto star appreciating over 80% to a recent record of $1402. All this suggests that more and more applications are being created. We know this by the demand for Ether, the gas that drives the Ethereum network.

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The reason behind the explosion of Ether demand was confirmed by Ethereum co founder Steven Nerayoff in a CNBC interview where he claimed the number of Ethereum projects today is more than 10 times year ago levels.

One of those areas is the music business and there are several names appearing on the ICO list to add to your research agenda.

Why The Music Business Needs Help

Music may live forever but the business side has been in trouble for a long while. Over the last decade there have been only three years when the global value of music sales increased. The combination of digital music and outright pirating through peer-to-peer sharing has much to do with the long-term trend.

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Throughout the world there are 69 copyright and royalty societies given the responsibility of documenting, collecting and distributing music royalties. That means collecting a few pennies whenever a song is played on the radio, Internet or anywhere else. Four of the largest of these is in the US, followed by Japan, Germany and Britain. Their operations are truly byzantine.

Experts in the music-publishing field confirm the time between music usage and royalty payment can run close to 24 months. Even then not all royalties are distributed. According to my sources, there are often millions of dollars collected by royalty authorities everywhere that never make it to the entitled recipients. That sort of practice borders on criminal behavior but copyright and royalty societies operate in a sub-rosa manner making it difficult to understand their policies.

In the past just 4 major record labels controlled over 80% of the industry. These giants could afford a full time legal department to pursue royalty issues dominated the music industry. Today, however, independent labels represent almost one-third of the market. This means less democracy in the business with the young independent artist at a particular disadvantage.

Of course, musicians aren’t the only group of artists loosing out on their pay. There are writers, poets and painters that go largely unprotected.

The music business is just easier to track because it has more data. Yet in spite of all the information, the music industry is widely recognized for its lack of transparency. Blockchain technology has the ability to disrupt long-standing industry practices.

ICOs To The Rescue

The number of Ethereum based white knights is starting to appear on the horizon promising to rattle the industry and hopefully restore some democracy on behalf of the independent artist.

One simple business model comes from a startup SingularDTV who is attempting to build their ecosystem on top of Ethereum. Here is the basic value added proposal.

SingularDTV tokenizes the artist work. In doing so the artist is turning their music into a financial asset. Anyone who buys into an artist’s token owns a share of the creation and its income stream. The more people consume an artist creation, the higher goes the token price.

Only time will show if SingularDTV succeeds with this model. The consequence of this model is how it eliminates many of the middlemen and nefarious influences in the industry. Instead of singing on a street corner for bread, an artist could raise money upfront without relying on an advance from a record label.

According to SingularDTV, distributing content via blockchain would allow artists to skirt streaming platforms like Spotify to earn royalties on their own terms. Now that is true democracy.

SingularDTV may stand out a bit in the news due its recent ICO success in raising $8 million but they aren’t the only player in the music game. Names like Voise recently raised $1 million as well as Soundchain, Blokur and Opus to name a few.

I am no longer a registered investment advisor, which means I don’t go around making investment recommendations. So I will only suggest this group to put on your list of late night reading. Next time, I will take a closer look at more of these names.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Cryptocurrencies Start Week on a Quiet Note as NEO Shines

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The broad Bitcoin-led correction continued to dominate trading in the crypto-segment throughout the weekend, as the most valuable coin drifted sideways above the key technical level at $13,000, with dwindling trading volumes.

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BTC remains in a declining short-term pattern, although the digital currency still holds well above the mini-crash lows from December, spending almost a month now in the daily range of the year-end plunge. We still expect the largest coin to complete the current cycle with a move below the crash lows and the $10,000 level after the stellar rally of the previous months. Key support is still found near $13,000, with further levels at $11,300, $10,000, $9000, and stronger levels at $8200 and $7700

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Altcoins also settled down across the boards with only a few coins registering strong activity. Ethereum and NEO have been among the coins making headlines, as the second largest coin continued to grind, higher still trading near its recent all-time high today. The price of the ETH token is moving in a short-term uptrend, in the face of the stretched momentum indicators, but we expect a meaningful correction soon, and long-term investors should wait for a more favorable technical setup before entering new positions, with key support levels at $1000, $850, $740, $625, and near $575.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple remained under heavy selling pressure in the meanwhile, as the oversold bounce of the weekend faded away and the coin got close last week’s lows again. As the short-term downtrend is intact, traders should stay away from entering new positions, while investors should wait for short-term sell-offs towards the main support levels at $1.50, $1.25, and $0.85 to add to their holdings.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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