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Price Analysis of Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum, Monero and Dash

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Bitcoin

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Notwithstanding that brief drop last night on kraken (What the hell was that?  Did someone fat-finger an order????) it seems that the 4 hour chart is going to close above the 1st arc. If so, this will be both a buy signal on the the Gann chart, and also give us another “higher high”, suggesting that the trend has turned up.

Ethereum

Ethereum is challenging a medium-term fib spiral for the 2nd time in the past day.  While we have not yet been given a buy signal from this tool (as this is being typed), it would seem that one may be forthcoming soon.  Stay sharp.

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Litecoin

As indicated in the weekend update, litecoin is approaching a likely turning point in the next week or so.  This is shown above in the Gann chart, which also indicates the challenge of the long-term resisting trend line (pink). Watch for a possible breakout soon.

Dash

As indicated in the weekend update, Dash ran into serious resistance. In the weekend update I suggested closing longs, if not going short.  Well, the tide has definitely turned since then.  When/if we see a close below the 1st arc (highly likely) we will likely see a fall to perhaps the 3rd arc shown below.  Wait for the close below the 1st arc before shorting though (imho).

Monero

With the exception of a brief penetration that failed, Monero has not been able to conquer a medium-term fib spiral.  It is not clear whether or not (the short-term) trend is higher or lower from here.  My play would be to take profits and wait to see a trend develop before opening another position.  Your mileage may vary.

Remember:  The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgement.  Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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5 Comments

5 Comments

  1. koonhuat

    March 21, 2017 at 8:32 am

    Hi Jim, I find your analysis have been very accurate. Please share with us the charting website you used for your analysis so that we can monitor the prices and follow your recommendations. Thank you.

  2. Jim Fredrickson

    March 21, 2017 at 1:53 pm

    I use Tradingview.com for my charts. I usually use kraken datafeeds since I trade there.
    TV.com is good, but their price scales are often inaccurate, and their tools, while better than most, are plagued by annoying imperfections they refuse to correct. The most annoying of all is an inability to manually set a scale that will not change, ever, unless asked.
    Kraken is a good exchange. Just wish they traded more of the altcoins than they do…

  3. nunogas

    March 21, 2017 at 5:05 pm

    Hi Jim,
    Thanks for your analysis, which has been stunningly accurate.
    What are your thoughts on Zcash?
    Thanks again.

  4. petit dubousquet fabrice

    March 22, 2017 at 1:11 am

    hello.
    I follow your analysis carefully and your daily work. Could you tell me how do you trace your support and resistance. Which platform do you use. Like this, it will allow me to follow carefully your work.
    Regards,

  5. mvppvm_07

    March 26, 2017 at 1:44 pm

    As a relative noob to the trading choices I can leverage with digital currencies, I am unable to do much with the “trend” on these excellent numbers-based charting schematics. Why? Because the difference between traditional stock market trending that I’m accustomed to is usually measured in days, if not weeks but the “trend” for some of the more utilized currencies in the digital currencies market seems to move within hours, sometimes minutes. I recognize the risk of the swings but the variances are large enough to have me sense I’m in an options pit battling against robos, often at significant disadvantage.

    I agree with others who are impressed with the accuracy range of many of the charting tools you use but they have so far been mostly historical tools rather than forecasting tools. I suppose that as I get more familiar with the digital currency markets, I may have my own algos to complement what you’re doing but until then I’ll keep hoping that the toolsets like yours can offer more real time analysis (is that an oxymoron?). Thnx, though, for the insights you DO offer; I look forward to the analysis when it is available to compare against my limited view of the markets.

    (btw, I use the name digital currencies because I think the nerdie name ‘cryptocurrency’ keeps it from broader non-technical public acceptance, thereby suppressing value “from the bottom up”. Any opinions on stumbling blocks for using the easier-for-the-public-to-grasp name I use?)

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Analysis

Market Update: Bitcoin at $10,000, Ripple at $1, Ethereum below $1000 as Carnage Continues

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Yesterday’s China induced technical breakdown led to an unmitigated disaster in the crypto segment, as all of the majors crashed, erasing hundreds of billions of market cap in the process. The collapse of the alleged Ponzi scheme of Bitconnect added insult to injury and caused another wave of selling in late trading, driving the price of Bitcoin to $10,000, a bit earlier than expected.

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BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The most valuable digital currency rebounded as much as 15% after the late-session crash, but the selling pressure remained strong and today BTC briefly traded below yesterday’s low, with most of the majors holding up above the crash low.

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That said, the sell-off is unlikely to be over and volatility is probably here to stay for the week, with violent swings in both directions. The coin is still likely to push lower, with a possibly lengthy bottoming phase, so a quick recovery to the record highs is unlikely, but strong support is found below $10,000 at $9200, $8200, and $7650.

Traders should be aware of the elevated risk in short-term positions here, while long-term investors could slowly accumulate positions on the sell-offs, as the coins are headed to oversold territory.

A Little Perspective

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Broad Correction Enters Next Phase

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The overbought BTC-led correction that has been the dominating technical process in the cryptocurrency segment in the last month or so continued in earnest today, amid the intensifying regulatory steps concerning the sector. The three-week-long consolidation that followed the initial mini-crash concluded with a sharp sell-off overnight rearranging the long-term charts, while likely kicking off another volatile period.

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While most of the crash lows held up today in early trading in the majors, especially in the case of the late leaders like Ethereum and NEO, some of the relatively weaker coins are already trading below the December minimums. We expect most of the majors to follow Dash and LTC, the weakest of the largest coins, lower and trade below the previous lows, as sentiment will likely swing to a bearish extreme.

The $11,300 level has been in the center of attention throughout the session today and the most valuable coin experienced heavy trading around the level as expected. As the daily MACD is still in neutral territory, the coin could be in for another leg lower, but after the 40% correction and the rather lengthy consolidation, investors could be looking for entry points during the move near the key support levels at $10,000, $9000, and the stronger levels at $8200 and $7700.

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BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

As Ethereum is in a different part of its cycle the long-term momentum readings are still overbought, and that could mean a more protracted correction for the second largest coin. That said, following a multi-month consolidation like the one in Ethereum before, we still expect the token to outperform BTC from a long-term technical standpoint. ETH is now below the short-term trendline, and it’s likely to dip below $1000, and the prior top at $850. Further key levels are found at $740, $625, $575, and near $500.

ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Let’s see the outlook for the other major altcoins after today’s bloodbath.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Crypto Update: Chinese Crackdown Triggers Next Leg of Correction

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The cryptocurrency segment is crashing again, with double-digit losses across the board, and with several coins shedding around 30% in one day amid the widespread and heavy selling. The sell-off was triggered by reports on a new set of measures by the Chinese authorities limiting crypto trading, which added to the still looming South Korea related regulation worries. Bitcoin tested the mini-crash lows at $11,300 today in early trading, dipping slightly below that level before a strong bounce started.

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The most valuable coin is now between two crucial support/resistance lines, with the other ahead at $13,000, and as the downtrend is entering its more mature phase the $10,000 and $9,200 levels could come in play, with a possible dip to the support zone near $7,650.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

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Interestingly, the coin is still hovering within the daily range of the crash of December 22nd, and that points to a very active and volatile period ahead near the low at $11,300, as automatic orders will likely get triggered on both sides of the market.

The short-term setup is bearish, and although it’s possible that the primary support level will hold, odds still favor another leg lower, following the exponential run-up at the end of last year that pushed sentiment into bullish extremes.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Altcoins

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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