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Market Overview

Oil Prices Notch Two-Year Highs as Dollar Gains Ahead of FOMC Speeches

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Oil prices climbed to more than two-year highs on Monday after major producers said output cuts were draining the supply glut. The oil market is having a stellar month, continuing a rally fueled by stronger demand and expectations of bigger output cuts.

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Brent Tops $59.00 a Barrel

ICE Brent futures for November delivery reached a session high of $59.25 a barrel Monday. Prices settled on a gain of $2.16, or 3.8%, at $59.02 a barrel. That’s the highest settlement since July 2015.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures notched five-month highs in New York. The November contract rose $1.57, or 3.1%, to $52.12 a barrel.

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Crude prices have gained more than 10% over the past month on brighter demand prospects and expectations that global producers will extend an agreement to curb output.

U.S. Shale Boom

The resurgence of U.S. shale production has played a leading role in delaying the market rebalancing. Rising prices have encouraged shale producers to boost explorations plans and to pump more.

According to Baker Hughes Inc., the active U.S. rig count has jumped 85% from a year ago. The active rig count fell by one last week to a total of 935. Active oil rigs fell by five to 744.

Total active rig counts bottomed at 404 during the height of the oil-price collapse in 2016. Activity has gradually increased as efficient shale producers capitalized on steady price gains.

U.S. Dollar Gains Half a Percent

The U.S. dollar posted rare gains against a basket of rival currencies after New York Fed President William Dudley said interest rates are on track to rise gradually.

In a speech at Onondaga Community College, Dudley said said “inflation will rise and stabilize” around the Fed’s 2% target in the medium term.

Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to keep rates on hold, but said another round of tightening was likely before year’s end.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) climbed 0.5% to 92.65, its highest settlement in three weeks.

A stronger dollar normally acts as a disincentive to purchase commodity contracts that are themselves priced in the currency. However, that wasn’t the case for gold or energy commodities on Monday.

After a disastrous two-week stretch, December gold futures rebounded sharply on Monday to $1,314.40 a troy ounce.

Economic Data

An upbeat Texas manufacturing survey on Monday sets the bar high for this week’s U.S. data releases. On Tuesday, the Commerce Department will report on August new home sales. The Richmond Fed will also unveil the regional manufacturing index for September.

August durable goods orders will make headlines on Wednesday, giving way to revised second quarter GDP on Thursday.

The highly anticipated personal incomes and outlays report will be released Friday morning. The monthly data series includes the latest estimate of core PCE inflation, which is the Fed’s preferred measure of price growth.

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Market Overview

More Powerful than an Emperor

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The elections in the Czech Republic have gone largely as expected but things are far from over. Andrej Babis is also known locally as the ‘Czech Trump’ not only because of his personal wealth but also because of his Czech First anti-establishment populist views.

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Unlike in the USA however, winning an election in a Parliamentary system doesn’t necessarily guarantee control. Babis’s ANO (Yes) party has won 29% of the vote so they will need to partner up with one or more of the other eight parties in order to form a majority coalition. The task will not be simple, especially since Babis has already stated that he will not work with some of the parties and vice versa.

These type of negotiations can sometimes go on for quite a while. For example, the Netherlands is only just getting their government in place this week after a deadlock elections more than seven months ago. Over in Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel isn’t expected to settle on a Government until some time next year.

In Japan, on the other hand, Shinzo Abe has won a two-thirds majority so will have no need for wheeling and dealing. He now holds more power than the emperor himself and is free to continue on his stated mission to aggressively devalue the Yen.

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@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

 

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of October 23rd. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Market Overview

After the bloody referendum in the Spanish region of Catalonia, things have not died down. In fact, tensions have continued to heat up. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has now stated that he will soon strip the Catalonian Government of their power and hold a new election to replace the separatist local government of Carles Puigdemont.

The ball is now in the Catalan’s court. Puigdemont has several options. He can himself call for a snap election in Catalonia or he can simply accept the one that Rajoy has forced on him. A third option would be to make a more aggressive push for independence claiming that Spain has just again violated their rights.

No matter what he decides to do it is unlikely to bring calm as the doors for negotiation are now shut. The EURUSD is sinking this morning and now holding tight to temporary support (yellow) at 1.1750, if it passes there it could likely meet key resistance (red) at 1.1650.

More Powerful ECB

Of course, all the political updates we’ve mentioned above are minuscule when compared to the power of the European Central Bank.

The ECB’s monthly injections of €60 Billion per month have been propping up the stock markets and keeping the Euro down for the past three years. This Thursday, the ECB is largely expected to give some sort of guidance on the future of their massive stimulus package.

We know that they have been talking internally about reducing the injections to €30 Billion as of January and to keep the program going at least until September. In normal market conditions, it’s easy for them to leak these type of internal discussions to see their effect on the markets. But with all of the political uncertainty, their usual tactics may be less effective.

Here we can see the German Dax Index hesitating near it’s all time highest levels. Is the hesitation due to governmental negotiations or the rumors of less stimulus going forward?

Bitcoin ATH

Celebrations could be seen across the eToro network over the weekend as Bitcoin reached another all time record high of more than $6,000 per coin. The overall market cap (price per coin times number of coins in circulation) has for the first time surpassed $100 Billion before pulling back.

This very significant milestone clearly cements the role of bitcoin in the future of our global economy. As more people learn about the technology and how to use it, the more useful and valuable it will become.

For those that say “blockchain without bitcoin” just take a look at this chart showing bitcoin’s dominance over all the other cryptocurrencies in circulation…

The bitcoin network is all about consensus and at this time, the consensus is all about bitcoin.

Let’s have an amazing week ahead!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.
The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

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Market Overview

Asian Market Update – Monday: Tokyo Gains after Election Landslide, Minor Losses in China, S. Korea

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Tokyo streets

The Big Question: Will a new term help Abe to revive the world’s third-largest economy?

Asian stocks were trading in a mixed mode Monday morning, with nice gains seen in Tokyo after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling party got a two-third majority in the election and slight losses in Greater China and South Korea.

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In Japan, the Nikkei 225 surged 0.93 percent to about 21,658 right before midday, after opening at around 21,709.

Investors were responding to Sunday’s election results, which gave Abe’s party 312 out of 465 seats in the parliament, effectively securing Abe another term. The solid win for Abe suggested continued fiscal and monetary easing under under his economic policy program dubbed as Abenomics.

Before Sunday’s election, the Nikkei closed higher for a 14th straight day on Friday. Monday’s gain was also supported by a weaker JPY against the USD.

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In China, the Shanghai Composite Index was down 0.02 percent to about 3,377 before midday. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index lost 0.66 percent to around 28,298, after opening the session at 28,557.

Fresh data out China on Monday showed that the growth in home prices is cooling, following a barrage of measures from mainly local governments to contain the overheated housing market. Average home prices rose 6.3 percent year-on-year in September, slowing from 8.3 percent in August.

In South Korea, the Kospi was down a slight 0.05 percent to around 2,488 shortly before midday.

Down Under, the ASX 200 gained a minor 0.01 percent to around 5,907, remaining relatively flat from 5,908 at the same time on Friday.

Market focus this week:

In the US, markets are closely watching President Donald Trump’s pick for the Fed chair position. News reports cited Trump as saying over the weekend that Stanford University professor John Taylor and Fed governor Jerome Powell are among the candidates under consideration and a decision is coming shortly.

Main Market Movers – Mid-day Asian Trading Session

Indexes Value at Midday Daily Change
Japan- Nikkei 225 21,658 0.93%
China-Shanghai Composite Index 3,377 -0.02%
South Korea-KOSPI 2,488 -0.05%
Hong Kong –Hang Seng 28,298 -0.66%
Australia-ASX 200 5,907 0.01%

Cryptocurrencies

Prices of main cryptocurrencies were pointing lower on Monday during the Asian trading session.

At midday in Asia, bitcoin was down 0.18 percent to $5,958. Bitcoin is now down about $200 from the high of $6,156 reached on Saturday following a strong two-day winning strike on Friday and Saturday.

The price of ethereum lost a slight 0.68 percent to about $292 before midday. Ethereum dropped below the $300 level on Sunday.

Litecoin fell 2.11 percent to about $55.30 at midday. The virtual currency has been trading steadily around the $60 mark since Wednesday. Litecoin is currently in its third day of a losing strike, dropping from $61 on Friday.

Currencies

The Japanese yen lost 0.22 percent the US dollar at midday Monday to 113.76 per dollar.

The Chinese yuan lost 0.19 percent against the US dollar at 6.6311 per dollar.

The Australian dollar also lost 0.13 percent on the dollar, changing hands at 1.2779 per dollar at midday.

Commodities

WTI Oil was up 0.08 percent to $52.07 per barrel.

Brent Crude lost 0.02 percent to $57.86 per barrel.

Gold was down 0.34 percent to $1,276.03 an ounce.

Business News across Asia

In China, focus remains on the ongoing 19th National Congress of the Communist Party, which is expected to produce a new lineup of leadership for the powerful politburo.

Take Away: Markets would be paying attention to the new leadership to search for clues on economic and monetary policies. However, don’t expect anything else than continuation of the current path forward.

In Japan, the government announced that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who just emerged from a big win on Sunday’s election, spoke to US President Donald Trump over the phone. The two, once again, agreed to increase pressure on North Korea over the nuclear issue.

Take Away: Tensions on the Korea Peninsula remain high and fragile, with new missile tests from the North expected at any moment now. However, markets are getting used to these provocations so we need more than just the usual missile launch to create panic.

Featured image from Grips.ac.jp

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Analysis

5 Things to Watch Next Week: Earnings Bonanza, Bitcoin in Danger Zone, Trump’s Tax Reform, The Dollar Rally, The US Yield Curve

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1.            $4.5 Trillion in Market Cap Reporting

So far, the US earnings season has been a positive affair, as the most important companies, especially mega caps, beat the estimates across the board, lifting the major indices to new all-time highs in the process. Next week, is calendar will be full of another huge batch of key earnings, such as Microsoft (MSFT), Google’s parent Alphabet (GOOG), ExxonMobil (XOM), Amazon (AMZN) and Visa (V).

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With the overbought readings in the Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq, there is not much left in the tank for the equity rally, and the long-term prospects are not better by any means. That said, trying to pick a top in such a rally is futile, but controlling the Fear of Missing Out is not an easy feat. The correction will come, without a doubt, and it will either bring a trading opportunity as in August or a confirmation for the bears.

Dow 30 Index, Daily Chart Analysis

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2.           Bitcoin Reaches Target but Uptrend Remains Intact

The new all-time highs in BTC have been the most important move in the cryptocurrency segment this week, even as Ethereum‘s major update made headlines earlier on. As the short-lived break-out of ETH and some of the other major altcoins faded away, Bitcoin’s dominance reached levels not seen for months, surpassing 58% as the coin reached the $6000 level towards the end of the week. While the long-term picture is clearly overbought for BTC, we wouldn’t rule out another leg higher towards the range extension target at $7000, but pocketing most of the recent gains is probably the way to go. The quick and deep corrections in the segment always come when the last bears had given up hope, and we are close to that state.

BTC, Daily Chart Analysis

3.           Trump Tax Plan Might Live After All

As the Senate passed the 2018 budget resolution this week, the new tax bill got much closer to passing this year than previously thought. While a lot of experts agreed that the controversial proposal had a good chance of failing at one of the many legislative hurdles, but he Senate’s decision opened up the way for a short-cut and if the GOP speeds up the process of writing the bill, the much-awaited tax cuts could arrive very soon. The next step is to pass the budget bill in the House, while tackling the opposition towards the actual bill in the Senate and the House. So while the process will be grueling, the market already hailed the first step with a rally, and the progress could be a major driver for stocks and the Dollar in the coming weeks.

4.           The Dollar Showing Stability

With the focus still on the next Fed Chair, and the above-mentioned tax reform, the Greenback had a choppy but slightly bullish week, even compared to the relatively strong Euro. The Yen, the Pound, and the smaller majors all lost considerable ground compared to the USD, with the New Zealand Dollar falling the most after the announcement of the new coalition. Technically speaking, the Dollar is not out of the woods, but it seems that a higher low formed on the daily chart of the DXY, and that could have a major implication for all markets. Should the Index post a new swing high next week, the door could open for a major rally in the battered currency.

Dollar Index (DXY), Daily Charts

5.           The US Yield Curve is Collapsing

As short-term Treasury yields are rallying thanks to the hawkish tone of the Fed, and the modest economic numbers, the longer end of the curve is lagging severely. That represents the doubts regarding the long-term growth potential of the US economy, and is usually a strong precursor of a looming recession.

Some analysts argue that raising interest rates this late in the cycle is a major policy error, but with the extremely loose monetary policy of recent years, the normalization must begin, or the Fed will be out of options in the case of an economic shock. In any case, long-term investors should keep a close eye on Treasuries, as the bond market is usually a better predictor of troubles ahead than the stock market.

Key Economic Releases Next Week

Day Country Release Expected Previous
Monday CANADA Wholesale Sales 1.1% 1.5%
Tuesday CHINA PPI 6.3% 6.3%
Tuesday GERMANY Manufacturing PMI 60.1 60.6
Tuesday GERMANY Services PMI 55.5 55.6
Tuesday EUROZONE Manufacturing PMI 57.9 58.1
Tuesday EUROZONE Services PMI 55.7 55.8
Wednesday AUSTRALIA CPI 0.8% 0.2%
Wednesday GERMANY IFO Business Climate 0.4% 0.2%
Wednesday UK Prelim GDP 0.3% 0.3%
Wednesday US Core Durable Goods Orders 1.1% 2.0%
Wednesday CANADA BOC Rate Decision 1.0% 1.0%
Wednesday CANADA BOC Statement
Wednesday US New Home Sales 556,000 560,000
Wednesday US Crude Oil Inventories -5.7 bill
Thursday EUROZONE ECB Rate Decisiion 0.00% 0.00%
Thursday EUROZONE ECB Press Conference
Thursday US Unemployment Claims 236,000 222,000
Thursday US Pending Home Sales 0.7% -2.6%
Friday US Advance GDP 2.7% 3.1%

Featured image from Shutterstock

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