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Analysis: Monday Morning Massacre for Ethereum

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin finally succumbed to the selling pressure we have been forecasting for the past few days.  All things considered, the selling has been muted and reasonable, far more so than I expected.   This sentiment may be premature of course.  There could be another shoe waiting to drop.  But I note that a 5th arc on a 15 minute chart has (so far) stopped the decline, so I lost my bearishness  at the arc. I sent a tweet at the time.

Ethereum

Editor’s update: Ethereum’s flash crash only happened at “Kraken” due to a DDoS-attack.

Ethereum was a massacre.  The selling took out every leveraged trader I am sure.  Prices took a nosedive to $30 in a manner I briefly described in yesterday’s column. Short-selling, stop-running, margin calls and panic crushed a lot of people. I hope my leveraged readers were smart enough to take my advice and lighten their leveraged positions yesterday.  If not, they saw their dreams dashed a few minutes ago.

I believe the low is in at $30, but there could be another show left to drop.  It seems unlikely though, because the margin calls have already closed everyone out and the stops are cleared also.

Litecoin

Litecoin hit our target of $30 and has sold off a bit since then.  Given the selling going on today, it may still correct pretty hard as well.  Beware…

ETCUSD

We suggested that ETC might correct to the $5.50 area. At this writing we have a low of $5.17.  It seems like a low might be in, but it is hard to say.  The bears are in full control this morning in a coordinated attack across the spectrum.   It’s hard to say where any of it will end.

Overall, it’s a good morning to be either  in cash, or short.  There will be some great buying opportunities soon, but be careful!

 

 

Remember:  The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgment.  Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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5 stars on average, based on 1 rated postsJim has an MBA from the University of Southern California. He has had a long career in both Corporate Finance and IT. Along the way he discovered that trading was a vehicle with great promise, but struggled for a long time without a mentor. After having been knocked down many times and having struggled to get back up, he had an epiphany and realized that geometry was a solution. He shares his experience here. If you do well as a result of suggestions made here, feel free to say thank you :) BTC: 1FUq3GB1Q8zz2JpuBr7YHzVBKnaWoxgmya Follow him on Twitter (@jimfred1276) or email him at jimfred1276 at gmail.




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30 Comments

30 Comments

  1. eko6321

    May 8, 2017 at 6:38 am

    Hello Jim

    What happen to ethereum last night it was scary I be honest. Do you think can we hold ethereum or we sell.
    Or where we setup trailing stop limit.

    Please advice

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 8, 2017 at 7:27 am

      I don’t like anwering such questions because I don’t know your situation. It WAS scary, but imho the selling is over for now. Me? I would hold here…

  2. [email protected]

    May 8, 2017 at 6:59 am

    Hi Jim, I can see ETH is around $90 on GDaX and Coinbase and BTC near $ 1650. Which exchange you are referring for the prices?
    Also, I am heavily invested in LTC. Should I exit since it’s near$28.9 now?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 8, 2017 at 7:40 am

      I use kraken. My prices are the ones that exchange registers. LTC is still a good asset, imho…

  3. jedadoo

    May 8, 2017 at 7:14 am

    I’m a bit confused. Eth holding at $90+. I see some comments on polo about kraken being hacked. I pulled my Eth to a local wallet to prevent myself from selling it quickly 🙂

  4. iamniks

    May 8, 2017 at 7:14 am

    Any thoughts on XRP?

    • jedadoo

      May 8, 2017 at 7:15 am

      He gave some a few days ago, saying ti may triple this summer. Looks like it may sooner than that… I’d be interested in STR. Had a HUGE day at polo. Didn’t get in, but thoughts would be good.

      • iamniks

        May 8, 2017 at 7:16 am

        As I remember the goal was 0.2 which was today in the night:)

  5. Gabriel

    May 8, 2017 at 7:28 am

    Each exchange has different prices, because different people agree on different prices, depending where they trade. This leads to certain arbitrage opportunities. The prices seem to be mostly from Kraken aren’t they?
    My personal opinion is that it is best to invest broadly, and buy each coin after much research, to see if you would still be happy holding it one year from now (you may like the tech, etc.). That way you will benefit from the global rise of the crypto markets. Trying to always chase the fastest horse and switching all the time is too stressful, and also makes it hard to track your results.

  6. foryou

    May 8, 2017 at 8:39 am

    Hy, Jim,

    Seeing the ETH scary situation yesterday, I sold my holdings because it was well over my cost! I mostly do short term trading so that way it works for me.

    1. ” why do not you cover other potential AltCoins like Strat, Pink, SYS, Factom, …etc ? ” May be you do not want to confuse your followers but it would be much appreciated if I get to read on them as well. I see that there lots of money in these coins. I saw someone asking this in a comment under a recent post you made but you did not reply that!

    2. Any buy signal for now would be helpful.

    Will appreciate your reply on this.

    I have recently subscribed to your recommendations, it has been a good experience so far.

    Thanks 🙂

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 8, 2017 at 11:56 pm

      Hi, I am stretched thin trying to cover the few coins I actively cover already. Also, I trade on Kraken so charts on kraken are the ones I most easily see. Which exchange lists those coins? I will look into it.

      • foryou

        May 9, 2017 at 12:25 pm

        Poloniex. Do have a look, covering around 10 coins would be good. I have been closely watching them and made good money too. Your expert advice would always be helpful for everyone here. Thanks

  7. amirheavy666

    May 8, 2017 at 9:05 am

    AND Abour XRP what happen now 0.18 goto 0.25????

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 8, 2017 at 4:27 pm

      .25 was our target, but i didn’t expect to get there for another month. amazing.

  8. excesstomcat1

    May 8, 2017 at 9:05 am

    Can you please go into more detail about when to potentially sell Ethereum? Also what did you mean by ETH dropped to $30? I did not see that on coinbase.

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 8, 2017 at 11:01 am

      Apparently, this massacre was limited to Kraken. This is the exchange I trade on and monitor, so I did not realize this aberration occurred on a smaller scale. I am surprised that arbitrage did not arrest this massacre, if it was not happening elsewhere at the same time – but there it is.

      • ryepdx

        May 8, 2017 at 8:27 pm

        Poloniex was also down during the Kraken DDOS, which probably hindered arbitrage. This was pretty clear market manipulation.

  9. thoth

    May 8, 2017 at 9:41 am

    “We suggested that ETH might correct to the $5.50 area. At this writing we have a low of $5.17. It seems like a low might be in, but it is hard to say.”

    You mean ETC?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 8, 2017 at 11:02 am

      Yes, thank you for correcting my error.

  10. thoth

    May 8, 2017 at 10:16 am

    And those ETH sells on Kraken looks like fat fingers, nowhere else went near that low in USD

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 8, 2017 at 11:04 am

      Could have been, but it does not matter if it was fat fingers or thin. The result is the same.

  11. titaniumdave

    May 8, 2017 at 11:49 am

    KRAKEN froze yeserday. Volume dried up during the freeze, dropping price and triggering calls. The drop in price of ETH had nothing to do with actual market sentiment and everything to do with their glitch, which is why it was localized to Kraken and didn’t occur on any other exchanges. ETH sentiment is still strong.

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 8, 2017 at 3:35 pm

      That’s quite relevant information from a technology point of view. But from a traders point of view, it is irrelevant what caused such a price fluctuation. I write this column from a trader’s point of view, to help traders.

      • Joshnj82

        May 9, 2017 at 9:24 am

        The massacre began around 6:00p EST with a large sell order dropping ETH price on Kraken. Sh-t really hit the fan as the market went down from a DDoS attack and traders were unable to manage their positions causing plenty of liquidations and triggered SL’s. The selloff was seen across all markets but the bottom was significantly lower on Kraken.

        • Jim Fredrickson

          May 9, 2017 at 10:28 pm

          That is interesting, from an intellectual point of view. But I don’t buy DDoS as a “reason”, since the damage was limited pretty much to ETH (that day). It was chart-specific. Anyways, speaking for myself, as a trader, I don’t care all that much about “why” a chart makes a significant move. I mean, does it really matter? Not to me. There are million pieces of news events every day. Some bullish, some bearish. The charts give warnings of danger in advance, most of the time. I will likely address this issue in my next column. Thank you…

          • Joshnj82

            May 9, 2017 at 11:59 pm

            I mentioned the DDos attack in regards to losses and liquidations on Kraken only. I agree with your overall statement and wasn’t trying to speculate with a broad brush. I believe ETH bottomed at $26 on Kraken vs ~mid 70s elsewhere. To your point, the “why’s” are besides the point

  12. octave

    May 8, 2017 at 3:29 pm

    Are you on drugs? Many mistakes in this article

  13. And

    May 8, 2017 at 8:54 pm

    Jim, do not pay any attention to inappropriate comments. Your articles are simply fantastic! Thank you Jim!

  14. [email protected]

    May 8, 2017 at 9:02 pm

    I always follow and appreciate your suggestions. But always check few basics before actions. Mistakes happens but you are quick to rectify and update on twitter.

    Keep up the good work Jim. Thanks again.

  15. jedadoo

    May 8, 2017 at 10:03 pm

    Should rename this to “Monday Afternoon Ripple Massacre” — nearly 40% drop in mere minutes.

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Analysis

Crypto Update: Bitcoin Blows Through $7000 but Altcoins Still Lag Behind

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The relief rally in the cryptocurrency segment continued in earnest today, as Bitcoin still lead the way higher posting its best daily performance since April. The most valuable coin stole the show, although the whole market blasted higher, with the total value of the coins getting close to $300 billion, up by around 20% in a matter of days.

While the segment is still not out of the woods, BTC triggered a short-term buy signal in our trend model, as it overcame major resistance levels for the first time since May, finally showing some technical progress. That said, most of the majors are still stuck in, or right at the top of their trading ranges, and besides Bitcoin, buy signals are few and far between even considering the smaller coins, as correlations are still very high.

Trading volumes were also the highest in months, as especially Bitcoin triggered automatic orders while surging through several strong resistance levels. Bulls would still need further coins to join the break-out and fro now the long-term setup is still just little changed.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

BTC cleared the $6750, $7000, and $7350 levels in a bit more than an hour, and the epic short squeeze settled down near the latter resistance, for now. The coin is now on a short-term buy signal, and should a higher low form in the coming days, a new short-term uptrend could be established.

The coin needs to stay above the $7000 level to keep the signal intact, and given the relative weakness in Altcoins, the long-term outlook is still mixed. Resistance is now ahead between $7650 and $7800, while further support is at $6500.

Ethereum at $500 as Ripple Tests $0.51

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While Bitcoin is already above primary resistance, Ethereum is trading right at the $500 level, leaving the short-term trading range intact. The coin is close to triggering a buy signal, but it remains relatively weak and traders should wait for follow-through before playing a possible trend change. Primary support is still found at $450, with other levels at $420, $400, $380, and $360, while further resistance is ahead between $555 and $575.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

With all of the majors registering large gains, and even some the recently weak coins like LTC, XRP, and Dash are trading near key resistance levels, further short-term buy signals could pop up in the segment, but until a confirmed new uptrend, traders should remain cautious with new positions.

As an example, Ripple is trading slightly above the $0.51 resistance currently, but a break-out is not yet confirmed, and the trading range remains dominant. Further resistance levels are ahead at 0.54 and $0.575, while support is now found at $0.49 and $0.45.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 293 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Tesla: A Good Option to Invest

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By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboMarkets

Not so long ago, people only had landline phones that you couldn’t take anywhere, which now looks very inconvenient to modern people. Then, mobile phones appeared, and while you can take them anywhere, you must not forget to charge them regularly. However, charging your mobile has already become as usual as, for example, brushing your teeth.

When it comes to automobiles, modern fuel cars are like landline phones, as you can’t go anywhere without fueling them at a gas station, spending your time and money and planning your day depending on how much fuel you’ve got in your car tank. Electric cars are certainly cars of the future, and charging them would be something modern people are already much used to, as natural as fueling them now. It’s not the question of how much crude oil we still have on Earth; the point is that the progress is moving forward, and combustion engines, which are complex and expensive to maintain, will sooner or later become obsolete. Electric cars, where you don’t have to constantly watch how much engine oil or coolant remains inside, are about to replace the traditional fuel cars.

Tesla, a company founded in 2003, is by far the leader in electric cars production. One of its founders is the famous Elon Musk, an engineer and inventor.

Tesla presented its first electric car concept called Tesla Model S on March 26, 2009, in Hawthorne, CA. On June 22, 2012, after all R&D was completed, it was launched in the market and cost $112,000.

A few months later, the second prototype came in: this time, it was a crossover, Tesla Model X. According to Musk, Model X serial production would start in 2013, and the car would be available in late 2014. These plans proved to be too optimistic, though.

The supply start date was only announced in February 2014, but then postponed to Q2 and Q3 2015, and it fact the first supply was completed In September 2015. By the end of Q3, only 6 Model X cars were sold, each for $80,000.

In 2016, a new car, Tesla Model 3, was announced, and the sales were scheduled for the same year, but then the start date was postponed to 2017. The first Model 3 was actually sold in June 2017, at $35,000.

Since the first model sales start and up to now, the company has been unable to reach any net profit, with all earnings reports showing losses. The company was on the verge of bankruptcy as long ago as in 2008, and only a NASA contract saved it.

Perhaps the famous April 1 joke posted then by Musk was based on this very event.

However, it’s all quite different now.

Looking at the financial indicators of the company over the last 4 years, one can easily see where those losses come from. In 2014, Tesla invested $464M on R&D, while in 2015 they invested $717M, in 2016, $834M, and, finally, in 2017, the R&D cost Tesla $1.378B.

The losses were growing in proportion, but were cut in 2016 thanks to Model X sales. In 2018, the same may occur, as Model 3 is going to be quite popular, so the company may even start receiving profits.

Before 2015, the revenue came from a single model, which was Model S. In 2015, 50,446 cars were sold, with the total gross income of $5.649B.

In 2016, they started to sell Model X, which boosted the total year revenue to $7.728B.

If the company did not invest so much into R&D, perhaps, Tesla Inc. reports would now look far better than they are, but this would not last long, as the competition is also doing something.

When Model S sales started, it cost $112,000, while the average US citizen monthly income was $4,121. While not everyone could afford such a car, the sales went on rising, as Model S targeted mostly the luxury segment.

The next model cost $30,000 less, but was still inaccessible for an average consumer. This is why Tesla decided to release Model 3 at $35,000, much cheaper than the previous models. However, a bad surprise was expecting the company afterwards.

When Model 3 was presented, people could start applying for it with a deposit of just $1,000. By the end of the day, there were already 180,000 applications; three days later, the number already reached 272,000, and by May 2016, it went on rising to reach 373,000.

However, this only led to more expenses, as the company had to upgrade its production infrastructure in order to meet all those applications (the number of those exceeded the total number of cars sold since start).

When Tesla allowed its customers to apply for the new model, its production capacity was just 120 cars per week, while in order to meet all the needs Tesla had to boost it by 60 times, to 7,200 per week. Elon Musk is a go-getter, but this was crazy even for him.

Both investors and customers are already used to Musk not fulfilling his promises on time; this already happened with both Model S and Model X, where the supply date was postponed multiple times. It has not changed much now. By the end of Q1, Musk promised to reach 2,500 cars per week, but in fact was only able to boost it to 1,987. After breaking this promise, Musk said he was going to get 5,000 Model 3 cars per week by the end of Q2, and, curiously enough, this target was reached, according to the report as of July 2.

This news made the stock price go up, but right at the end of the trading session it was again down by 2.3%, as many investors just did not believe the report was true.

With the past experience of Musk’s promises being quite negative, Bloomberg developed an online tool where everyone can track the Model 3 production process by VIN. The news agency sends a request to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) website which sends a response on the number of VIN’s registered for Model 3.

However, car manufacturers usually register VIN’s for the whole batch, so the values Bloomberg gets may be a bit higher than they in fact are. Still, according to these stats, the company reached 4,395 cars per week by July 2.

So, in fact, Musk did not fulfill his promise again, and the market reaction was of course negative. However, the key point here is not fulfilling promises but the overall progress that was made over such a short period of time. Just 6 months ago, Tesla produced around 200 Model 3 cars per week, while now this figure is over 4,000. Tesla market cap is already higher than the one of Ford Motor Company and nearly in line with that of General Motors, while those too have over 100 years of experience in car production and sales.

If Tesla is able to maintain the same progress as before, it will produce over 52,000 Model 3 cars by late Q3, which will lead to good Q3 and Q4 reports, while all negative effects of the trade war against China will be void.

Besides, if we also take Model S and Model X sales into account, chances for good reports get even higher.

Reaching 5,000 cars per week is a very difficult task: Tesla even had to place its new assembly line in a tent.

This GA4 (general assembly) allowed the company to boost the production by 20%, and it actually proved to be one of the key decisions.

Meanwhile, Musk says GA3 will be well enough to maintain the production capacity at 5,000 cars per week, while GA4 will help to reach the further target of 6,000 cars. With Tesla products being in demand, investors can be quite optimistic regarding the future of the company and invest more, although they do have some risks.

Tesla is now a leading electric cars producer with relatively accessible prices, but the competition are also looking towards electric car production, which may of course shrink the demand. Other risks include emergencies coming from the autopilot mode Tesla is quite fond of. There is no law regulating the driver responsibility in such cases yet, so the company has to face claims against itself, which lead to Tesla recommending using autopilot only as an additional feature that does not allow the driver to stop watching the road.

Doug Field, a talented engineer, leaving the company after working with it for 5 years is also an important negative factor. Elon Musk says this should not have any influence on the indicators coming in the following quarters, or on the new Tesla cars production.

Technically, there is a clear ascending trend on W1, with the price using the 200-day SMA as a support and constantly bouncing off it. The price has also managed to stay above $300, which may help it go further up, too.

There is no MACD divergence that could stop this growth for now.

Just like before, Tesla looks like a very good option for an investment. Elon Musk may set too ambitious goals, but he achieves them sooner or later. The demand for Model 3 still exceeds the production capacities, with over 400,000 cars pre-ordered, but this will also allow the company to develop new models. As such, the 40-ton truck, Tesla Semi, was already announced to the public in November 2017, and its serial production is scheduled for 2019.

According to some sources, there have already been 1,000 pre-orders, with the deposit increased from $5,000 to $20,000.

Thus, Tesla may become the first company to produce an electric truck in 2019.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboMarkets shall not be held liable for trading results based on recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 4 rated postsHaving majored in both Social Psychology and Economics, Dmitry went on to continue his education in post graduate. He then worked as a team lead of a tech and fundamental analysis lab in the Applied System Analysis Research Institute. This helped him to acquire all necessary skills and experience to become a successful trader and analyst, as well as a portfolio manager in an investment company. Dmitry is a pro in the financial field who authors articles for various international media. He also holds the position of Chief Analyst at RoboForex.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Technical Setup Unchanged Despite Encouraging Rally

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Cryptocurrency bulls could breathe a sigh of relief on Monday as the secular uptrend in the most valuable coin got saved yet again, as BTC rallied above $6500 for the first time in a week after a low-volume consolidation period just above the $6000 level. All of the majors joined the rally as correlations remain very high in the segment, and the market recovered 10% on average with the total market cap of the coins getting back to $275 billion.

Despite the rally, the top coins are still stuck under key resistance levels, as the recent swing highs are still above the current prices and from a short-term standpoint, the downtrend is still intact. Until a move above the crucial levels, traders should still stay away from opening new positions, as odds continue to favor another test of the June lows.

That said, given the still intact long-term bullish setups in the most important digital currencies and the very negative sentiment that developed thanks to the long declining trend, a short-term trend change could be ahead. A bullish leadership is still yet to form, although Bitcoin’s short-term relative strength is a positive sign.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

In BTC’s market, all eyes are once again on the $6750-$7000 zone that has capped the really attempts for a month now, and below that zone, the largest coin remains on a short-term sell signal. As the coin didn’t hit a lower low, a bullish pattern could form in the coming weeks, but until it remains in the current trading range, traders shouldn’t enter the market. Support above the long-term $5850 level is found at $6500, $6275, and $6000 while further resistance is ahead at $7350.

Altcoins Slightly Lagging Behind Amid Broad Rally

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The major altcoins are in very similar short-term technical setups, thanks to the strong correlation between the coins, and the most bearish coins, like Litecoin, NEO, Monero, and Dash are still below the key support levels that they violated in June. While the previous lows held up this weekend, investors should still remain defensive with regards to the relatively weak currencies.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

That still points to a dangerous long-term setup in the segment, and further technical progress is needed to switch the segment-wide trend. Ethereum remains below the key $500 level, although the coin managed to rally above the $475 level yet again, despite being relatively weak from a short-term perspective compared to BTC.

A rally above $500 would be a very positive short-term sign for ETH, and it could trigger a move to the $555-$575 zone. Primary support is at $450, with further levels at $420, $400, $380, and $360, and below $500 the short-term sell signal is intact.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 293 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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