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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Uptrend Firmly Intact

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The bullish picture that the crypto segment has been showing for the past weeks shows no signs of deteriorating, as the major coins are all in confirmed short-term uptrends, and the long-term charts are also encouraging. While the majority of the coins spent the last week in choppy consolidation patterns, a series of breakouts occurred in the last couple of days, kick-starting the next leg higher in the uptrend.

Out of the early leaders of the rally, IOTA exited its consolidation pattern on Wednesday, while Ethereum moved above its rally high yesterday. Bitcoin is currently testing the late-April maximum, while most of the majors are also pushing higher, with only a few coins being in a different part of the cycle, such as EOS, TRON, and Stellar, which are earlier in their respective corrections.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

From a long-term perspective, Bitcoin is still not overbought and the current move could be the beginning of another significant leg in the recovery, with major hurdles near $10,000, between $11,300 and $11,750, and around $13,000. Long-term investors should still hold on to their coins while short-term traders should trade the trend. Long-term support is now found between $9000 and $9200, near $8400, $7650, and in the $6150-$6250 zone.

ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum is trading in a strong uptrend currently testing a crucial resistance zone above the $725 level after yesterday’s breakout. Should the breakout hold, the next targets for the move are at $845, $900, and $1000, and although the best time to accumulate the coin is behind us long-term investors should hold their positions as further gains are likely.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin is finally showing signs of strength, moving out of the consolidation pattern and edging towards the April high, with the $170-$180 resistance zone just ahead. A move above that zone would set up a move to $200, with the next target being at $225. With the MACD in neutral territory, long-term investors could still add to their holdings here, with support levels $150, $140, and $125.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash is still relatively weak compared to the leaders of the rally, with the $500 resistance capping the advance in the coin. That said the short-term uptrend is clearly intact, and the long-term technical picture also remains encouraging. The coin faces further resistance in the zone between $575 and $600 and $650, while key support below $435 is at $400.

Ripple

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

XRP is struggling to get over the previous swing high, as the $0.84 level is still in the center of price action. The short-term uptrend is intact and we expect the rally to continue in the coming weeks with likely tests of the $1 and $1.25 levels. As the long-term momentum indicators are not yet overbought, long-term investors could still add to their holdings, with support levels are found below $0.84, at $0.73 and $0.64.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic got stopped by the key resistance zone near $23, despite the broad rally in the segment, and the failed break-out could point to further consolidation in the coin. While we expect the recovery to continue, this is not the best time to add to long-term holdings. Support levels are now found at $20, $18, and $16, while further main targets are ahead at $27.50 and $30.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero has been relatively weak since the short-term correction started, and it remains well below the rally highs set in late-April. Despite the weakness, the uptrend is clearly intact, and we expect the coin to regain its relative strength in the coming weeks. For now, the coin is only neutral in our trend model on both time frames, and traders and investors shouldn’t enter new positions here. Resistance levels are now ahead at $260, $300, and $335 while key support is found at $240, and $200.

NEO

NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO is failed to recapture the $100 level despite breaking out of the broad declining trendline and moving past the $80 resistance. While the short-term uptrend is intact, the long-term trend signal is only neutral, and investors shouldn’t add to their holdings. Strong resistance zones are still ahead near $100 and $110, with further support found at $64 and $50.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA continued to lead the rally in the segment, surging past the previous high at $2.2, and recapturing the zones near the $2.35 and $2.6 level before pulling back today. The coin is now overbought form a long-term perspective, and investors should reduce their positions during the rallies, even as a push towards $3 is still in the cards.

EOS

EOS/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EOS surprised its January highs during the latest leg of the rally, and it got overbought in the process, and now a deeper correction is likely in the coming weeks, although another short-term swing higher could be ahead. Resistance is just ahead at the recent high near $23 while, support is near $15.50 and $12.

How to Use These Charts?

As we stressed in our article on Bitcoin: “…not all strategies are binary (either holding an asset or not).There are many long- and short-term investment and trading strategies that can be successful in a roaring bull market like the one that the crypto-coin segment is experiencing, but mixing the time-frames and mixing trading and investing (see our article on the topic) could lead to troubles.”

Here is a reminder of some of the possible strategies once again:

  • Buy and hold, without caring about day-to-day (or even month-to-month) fluctuations
  • Buy and hold a core position and add on the major dips; a very powerful strategy
  • Buy a certain amount every week or month, and even-out your entry price, without the hassle of timing the market
  • Try to catch major turning points to reduce and “re-boost” your position
  • Trade short-term movements with stop-losses, targets, and strict risk management (this is trading not investing)”

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 443 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

Litecoin Price Analysis: LTC/USD Bulls Enjoy Big Jump But Stubborn Resistance Capping Potential

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  • Litecoin sees a relief rally on Friday, but is still stuck within stubborn range-block.
  • LTC/USD price action has formed a bearish flag pattern structure, subject to a potential break lower.

The Litecoin price on Saturday was seen holding decent gains of over 5%, as life is kicked back into the bulls. The LTC/USD pair has been victim of trading within a stubborn daily $3 range. This very much being the case for the past nine trading sessions. It is a form of consolidation after the breach south from an ascending trend line. This had been supporting the price from 14th December 2018, up until the bears forced a breach on 10th January.

In light of the breakout below the above-mentioned trend line, a large wave of selling pressure came with that. LTC/USD plunged by as much as 25% to the lowest levels seen since the start of the month. The earlier described range-block formation has come as a result of the increased volatility that accompanied the break south. The high of the range should be noted at the $33 mark, with the lower support eyed down at the psychological $30 level.

Bear Flag

Given this type of price behavior from a technical standpoint, it appears to demonstrate some vulnerabilities to the downside. The calming and consolidating after an initial explosive drop lower to then potentially resume the selling pressure reflects this point. As can see from either the 4-hour or daily chart, price action has formed a bearish flag pattern. When the market fell from 9-10th January, this formed the pole of the bearish flag of the structure. The actual flag is currently being constructed, as part of the sideways trading being observed.

Lightening Network Trial Underway

As reported by the CCN team, Coingate, a cryptocurrency-based payments platform, has now executed a trial run of its Lightening Network via Litecoin.  The platform has partnered up with a privacy service provider, known as Surfshark for this pilot project. Within the partnership, the implementation of Lightening Network payment solution for Litecoin transactions is a big milestone for the cryptocurrency community.

Technical Review – LTC/USD

LTC/USD daily chart. A bearish flag structure can be seen.

As detailed earlier, a breakout from the range-block formation will be the next trend defining move. Should the bears manage to force a break below the lower support, tracking at $30, then a demand area below will be called into action. This can be observed tracking within the $28 price region, which is a known area to find buyers. A failure to do so could see LTC/USD drop back down towards $23-22 range.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 110 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Coins Drift Lower but Damage Remains Limited

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The major cryptocurrencies continue to trade in narrow ranges following last week’s decline and this week’s failed rally attempt. While Bitcoin is stuck near the $3600 support, the other top coins have been losing ground today, with Ethereum dipping below the $120 level, Ripple violating the $0.32 price level and Litecoin testing the $30-$30.50 support zone yet again.

Trading volumes and volatility remain very low across the board, but correlations are still high between the majors, and despite the quiet environment, we haven’t seen bullish signs in the market. That said, the trading ranges that developed this week are still intact, and although the overwhelmingly bearish long-term picture still makes the continuation of the decline more likely, a failed break-down pattern could still develop in the segment, should the top coins recover above their weekly highs in the coming days.

For now, our trend model remains on sell signals on both time-frames in case of most of the majors, and traders and investors should still stay away from entering new positions here, with still no bullish leadership being present.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin is still relatively stable even in the very quiet environment, and the most valuable coin is trading right at the $3600 support/resistance level. BTC formed a volatility compression pattern in recent days, and that formation points to a more significant move in the coming days, with a move out of it being inevitable as soon as this weekend.

Bulls are still looking for a move above $3850, towards the key zone between $4000 and $4050, but the bearish long-term setup continues to favor a dip below $3600, with support zones still found near $3250 and $3000, and traders and investors should still not enter positions here.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum failed to get close to the $130 resistance level again, and as it dipped below primary support, the test of the swing low near $112 is likely in the coming days. The coin remains on sell signals on both time-frames in our trend model, and a move towards the key support zone and between $95 and $100 is likely in the coming weeks, barring a quick reversal above $130. Further resistance is ahead at $145, $160, and near $180 while the bear market low is found near $80

Ripple Under Pressure Again in Weak Environment

EOS/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Altcoins continue to trade without a clear direction despite today’s dip, but the bearish drift of the recent days means that the key support levels could be in focus during the weekend, should the volatility compression finally end. The few major coins showing signs of strength haven’t been able to maintain the bullish momentum, like EOS, which gave back yesterday’s gains today.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While the market of Ripple is still very quiet, the coin fell below the $32 support yet again, and it remains relatively weak compared to its closest peers. It is also on sell signals on both time-frames in our trend model, and a dip below $0.30 will likely be the next significant move. Further strong support is found near the $0.26 level, with resistance ahead near $0.3550 and $0.3750.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin is trading just above the key $30-$30.50 support zone, and it sill failed to get anywhere near the next major zone near the $34.50 price level. Given the hostile long-term setup and the short-term sell signal our trend model, traders should stay away from the coin here, with a move toward the $26 level being likely in the coming weeks. Further strong resistance is ahead near $38 and $44 and with another support level found near $23.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 443 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Binance Coin Update: Wyckoff Breakout in Progress

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Binance Coin (BNB/BTC) is the altcoin market’s ultimate comeback kid. It was dead in the water on November 17, 2018 when it broke support of 0.0014. The market flipped the support into resistance two days later on November 19 to confirm the breakdown.

Binance Coin was supposed to enter a long bear winter. However, the market had other plans as it whipsawed everyone who panic sold the breakdown. In this article, we show how the Wyckoff Breakout is in progress in Binance Coin.

Wyckoff Spring

On November 28, 2018, Binance Coin dropped to as low as 0.001233. At that point, participants were convinced that the market broke down from either the large head and shoulders pattern on the longer time frame or a descending triangle on the shorter time frame. Even though the market was ripe for a bounce, almost everyone expected it to be the dead-cat type. Nevertheless, Binance Coin showed why it is always best to be prepared for both bull and bear scenarios.

The market suddenly rallied and took out both the head and shoulders neckline and the diagonal resistance of the triangle in one fell swoop. It then flipped both resistances into support on December 20, 2018. This is a classic example of a Wyckoff Spring.

BNB/BTC bear trap

As you can see, this price action is bullish. The smart money most likely accumulated positions from August 14 to November 17, 2018 while Binance Coin was range trading between 0.0014 and 0.0016. The breach below the support was the smart money’s method to tap into more liquidity. They shook the tree in order to accumulate more positions in a short amount of time. When they were done, they triggered the rally and the reversal.

Now that we know the smart money accumulated between 0.0014 and 0.0016, we can form the expectation that they will defend this range. More importantly, with the bear trap sprung, we can assume that Binance Coin is ready for the next stages of the model: the throwback and the markup.

Throwback

According to the Wyckoff model, Binance Coin is scheduled for a pullback before it can launch a bull run. The brief retracement is actually bullish. It would flip the former resistance into a firm support. This would enable the market to trend higher.

Wyckoff Model (Source: ScanStockCharts)

So far, Binance Coin has gone through the first three phases: accumulation, spring and breakout. The market is now trading above 0.0016, which used to be the range high. However, it is starting to show signs of weakness. Binance Coin is showing a bearish divergence on the daily RSI while trading close to overbought territory. On top of that, it is creating a rising wedge on the daily chart, which is a bearish pattern.

BNB/BTC bearish signals  

These signals are aligned to the next step of the Wyckoff Model, which is the throwback. The pullback will be healthy for the market. It will enable technical indicators to cool off as well as allow the market to establish a new base of buyers.

If you’re considering placing long positions in the market, the throwback to 0.0016 is a very good chance to do so.

Markup

Should Binance Coin pull back and stay above 0.0016, then the market would be ready for the next phase: the markup. This would be the start of the market’s bull run.

From Binance Coin’s market structure, we can see three heavy resistances: 0.002008, 0.0002287, and 0.00258. These would be the target prices to look for.

BNB/BTC heavy resistances

If all goes well, those who will be buying the throwback can potentially grow their investments by over 60%.

Bottom Line

Binance Coin is an altcoin that should be languishing in a bear winter. Instead, the market has managed to reverse its fortune through the Wyckoff model. It is likely that this market is on the brink of a massive bull run.

 

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.8 stars on average, based on 310 rated postsKiril is a CFA Charterholder and financial professional with 5+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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