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Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: All Majors Stretched as Ripple Finally Breaks-Out

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Although the previous leaders of the rally started to correct or at least consolidate in the wake of the overbought long-term setups, another batch of coins turned exponential, with Litecoin, Ripple, and Ethereum all registering lofty gains this week. Bitcoin, Monero, and Dash have been holding up well, and even drifted to new marginal highs during the period, while Ethereum Classic had a more volatile week, before moving to new highs today.

XRP left the broad trading range that has dominated its market since May, and surged to new all-time highs while almost quadrupling in the process. As the coin was the only major on a long-term buy signal according to our trend model, and the move triggered a sell signal on Thursday, now all of our tracked coins are on sell signals.

Ripple could be in for further short-term gains but long-term investors should reduce their positions after this week’s spike. Support levels are found Major at the prior high near $0.4250 and in the $0.30-$0.32 range.

XRP/USDT, Daily Chart Analysis

IOTA, which has been leading the market higher before is down by more than 30% off its all-time high, but given the exponential move before, an even deeper correction is likely in the coming weeks, and investors should wait until a more favorable setup to add to their positions. Strong support is only found at $3 and $1.5, but potential Fibonacci support is at $2.35.

IOT/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Let’s see how the long-term charts of the other majors look this weekend.

Bitcoin

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

BTC is trading on fresh new highs today, but compared to the previous momentum of the rally, the coin is only inching higher, and the long-term indicators are sill flashing red. We still expect a deep correction in the coming period, and we advise investors to wait until oversold readings to enter new positions after the stellar autumn. Primary support is still found near $13,000, with further levels at $11,300, $10,000, $9000, and stronger levels at $8200 and $7700.

Ethereum

ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum was helped by the persistent bullish sentiment in the segment and continued its break-out, reaching, and even surpassing the range projection target for the move near $680. The total value of the market climbed above $500 billion thanks in part to the surge in the coin, but now the token joined the ranks of the severely stretched coins, and investors should only keep their core holdings. While short-term gains are still possible, a deeper correction is likely around the corner, with key support levels now found at $575, between $480 and $500, and near the prior all-time high at $400.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Litecoin turned parabolic this week, defying the already stretched momentum readings, and it far surpassed our targets, reaching above the $300 level. We expect a deep correction in LTC, not unlike the one in IOTA after the exponential move, but the short-term uptrend is still intact, and the exact top could still be ahead of us. That said, investors should take a step back and wait for a correction before adding to their holdings, with key support levels found at $125 and $100, and weaker levels at $260 and $170.

Dash

DASH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Dash held up very strongly amid the volatile correction, proving its apparent relative strength once again. That said, the coin is clearly overbought, and although we expect it to remain strong in the coming months, a deep correction is likely. Key support levels are still found at just above $600, at $500, $470, and near $410.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic broke above the prior all-time high today, and it is testing the lower end of the prior trend channel today, despite the extremely overbought long-term momentum readings. While short-term gains are still possible we would stay away from entering new positions here, given the state of the segment and the currency’s market. Key levels are found below the current price at $32, $30, $23, and $18.

Monero

XMR/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Monero has been hitting marginal new all-time highs this week, but the momentum of the move is suspicious and a bull-trap could be forming as we speak. The steep short-term uptrend is still, but the long-term momentum indicators are off the charts, and a deep correction is very likely in the coming weeks.  Key support levels are still found at $240, $200, $180, and $150.

How to Use These Charts?

As we stressed in our article on Bitcoin: “…not all strategies are binary (either holding an asset or not).There are many long- and short-term investment and trading strategies that can be successful in a roaring bull market like the one that the crypto-coin segment is experiencing, but mixing the time-frames and mixing trading and investing (see our article on the topic) could lead to troubles.”

Here is a reminder of some of the possible strategies once again:

  • Buy and hold, without caring about day-to-day (or even month-month) fluctuations
  • Buy and hold a core position and add on the major dips; a very powerful strategy
  • Buy a certain amount every week or month, and even-out your entry price, without the hassle of timing the market
  • Try to catch major turning points to reduce and “re-boost” your position
  • Trade short-term movements with stop-losses, targets, and strict risk management (this is trading not investing)”

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 412 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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5 Comments

5 Comments

  1. mullinsmcd

    December 16, 2017 at 5:30 pm

    Not sure how to react to your analysis as the sentiment always seems to be ‘overbought’ and ‘wait for correction’. I would advise having multiple analyses to consider what the new norms for crypto long term analysis that considers macro trends and the influx of new money and the whole new set of retail investors after this holiday.

    • MinerMatt17

      December 16, 2017 at 9:14 pm

      Couldn’t agree more. Their analysis is consistently “correction, correction, overbought” , with no input from the market as a whole, and they keep getting it wrong.

      • Mate Cser

        December 19, 2017 at 5:35 pm

        Hi MinerMAtt, and mullinsmcd, the past two weeks have been like that admittedly, but I would point out that the last major low-risk buying opportunity was in September, with another shorter one in November in the case of some of the majors. Instead of “correction, correction, correction” I kept on saying, “long-term investors could still add to their positions here” and got some harsh words for it 🙂 At that point in the cycle, a lot of people were convinced that altcoins will be worthless soon. Before that it was, the “Ethereum will catch up with Bitcoin” trend. They all ended.
        The timing of the exit, in this case, was off, I will be the first to agree, but I wouldn’t count on “new norm” investing, market cycles are not going anywhere and there will be great buying opportunities ahead. At this point, protecting your portfolio is the most important IMHO.
        Those who bought when the trend signal list was all green and sold on the sell signals have multiplied their investments even if they missed a large chunk of the rally in IOTA, BTC, or LTC for example. Ripple was on a buy signal until its break-out and the 4x rally. This method (and no other method), is not perfect and it will miss extreme situations like this, but it will also protect you from huge drawdowns, which can destroy your portfolio, especially when using leverage.

        Have a great day guys

        • MinerMatt17

          December 19, 2017 at 5:45 pm

          To be fair, you have been recommending closing many positions for roughly 3.5 weeks right after the thanksgiving explosion. But I understand what you mean.

          Would you recommend closing out 50% of positions then this week? It’s just real shitty timing since I can wait 2 weeks and save a bunch on taxes….

          • Mate Cser

            December 20, 2017 at 1:30 am

            Yes, you are right, I didn’t see BTC reaching these levels in this cycle… or IOTA for that matter. Those trends are definitely beyond the reach of my approach, but I will be happy to buy back what I sold even on higher levels if I see promising technical setups. I would scale back here without caring about taxes or maybe hedging with tether pairs could be helpful. I will write an article about this in the coming days.

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Analysis

Crypto Update: Weekend Bounce Fails to Turn Bearish Tide

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The major cryptocurrencies continue to be stuck in declining trends, despite the bounce that followed the latest technical breakdown in the segment. The top coins failed to recover above the prior bear market lows sustainably, and today, the market turned lower again, with the weakest currencies already threatening with new lows.

The long-term picture remains overwhelmingly bearish, and out trend model is negative across the board, with only Bitcoin showing relative stability, still holding up near its prior low. There is no sign of bullish momentum among the majors and traders and investors should remain defensive here, until at least a short-term trend change, as despite the negative sentiment and the deeply oversold broader picture, odds still favor new bear market lows in the coming period.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin bounced back after last week’s breakdown and tested the $3600 level before turning lower again. Since the coin failed at the key level, the short-term sell signal in our trend model remains in place, together with the clear long-term sell signal.

A move towards the long-term support zone near $3000 remains likely, and traders still shouldn’t enter new positions here. The coin is well below the key $4000-$4050 zone, and the short-term downtrend is still intact, despite the recent rally attempts.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum is also stuck below the prior bear market low and the key 95-$100 support zone, similarly to Bitcoin, and although the coin is not showing clear relative weakness anymore, it is still bearish on both time-frames in our trend model, with the steep downtrend being intact.

New lows are still likely in the coming weeks, and traders and investors should stay away from the coin Strong resistance above the primary zone is ahead near $120, $130, and $150, while long-term support is found in the $73-$75 zone.

Bearish Leaders Remain Weak

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple continues to be relatively weak from a short-term perspective and the coin is hovering near the $0.30 following the failed rally attempts, which were capped by the $0.32 resistance level. The coin is on sell signals on both time-frames due to the recent weakness and technical breakdown, and a test of the bear market low near $0.26 now seems likely. Primary support is now found at $0.28, with further resistance levels ahead at $0.3550 and $0.3750.

Litecoin/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin is also showing relative weakness, despite its brief period of strength in November and the coin is trading just above the next major support zone which is found near the $23 price level. The steep long-term downtrend is clearly intact and our trend model bearish both time-frames, and new lows are likely in the coming days, with strong resistance ahead near $26 and between $30 and $30.50.

Monero/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

On another negative note, the bearish leaders are still not showing signs of stability, barely bouncing off their lows during the broad rally attempt. Monero is still among the weakest majors, and the coin looks ready for another leg lower, with last week’s breakdown clearly being intact.

We expect the downtrend to continue in XMR and the other relatively weak coin, and traders shouldn’t enter even new positions here, despite the oversold long-term momentum readings in the segment.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 412 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: 5 Altcoins to Watch This Week

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Bitcoin had another rough week. As a result, altcoins that were included on last week’s list either dumped or stayed close to support. Nevertheless, having a clearly defined range enables you to quickly react when an altcoin either goes below the support or breaches the resistance. You can form expectations as to where the market might go next.

We’ll do more of the same this week. Here are five altcoins to watch this week.

Waves (WAVES/BTC)

Waves pumped hard last week. It climbed as high as 0.0005965 on December 4 from a low of 0.0002336 on November 21. If you failed to ride the early stages of a huge rally, the next best thing is to wait for the pullback.

Daily chart WAVES/BTC

Waves appears to have retested resistance of 0.0004715. It is also in overbought territory so we can expect a deeper retrace this week.

A good pick up area would be between 0.000352 and 0.0003835. These are solid weekly support areas. On top of that, the 200-day moving average is moving around those levels.

If Waves moves below 0.000352, it is likely that there will be a full retrace back to 0.0002336.

EOS (EOS/BTC)

EOS breached range support of 0.000697 on December 1. Considering that the market had been relying on this support since August 14, the breakdown sparked panic selling. Participants who bought within the range raced to dump their positions. As a result, the market nosedived to 0.0004721 on December 7.

Daily chart EOS/BTC

With this breakdown, EOS is now trading within a new range. The range low is weekly support of 0.0005021, midpoint is 0.0006015, and the range resistance is 0.000697. You know the drill: to trade this range, a trader needs to buy the support and sell the resistance.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH/BTC)

Bitcoin Cash (BCH/BTC) has been feeling the effects of gravitational pull after a glorious first week of November. The meteoric rise to 0.098035 on November 7 is now being met by a massive dump. So far, the market is en route for a full retrace. That’s perfect for those who want to play the range.

Daily chart BCH/BTC

0.06815 is a good pick up point if you’re looking to bottom pick the market. However, don’t immediately buy the drop because there’s a chance that market makers will push prices further down to liquidate range low buyers. Instead, wait for Bitcoin Cash to retest the support on the 1-hour chart. This should increase the likelihood of a strong bounce.

Republic Protocol (REN/BTC)

Republic Protocol (REN/BTC) has the makings of the next Ravencoin (RVN/BTC) in terms of price action. The market skyrocketed to a high of 0.00000838 on December 9 from a low of 0.00000551 on December 8. That was an increase of over 52% within 24 hours.

As expected, the pump was followed by a pullback. This is where it gets interesting for us.

1-hour chart REN/BTC

For REN to continue its bullish sentiment, it must recover support of 0.0000704. That should give the market the momentum to test 0.00000816 resistance. On the other hand, a breach below immediate support of 0.00000672 is bearish. It can lead to a full retrace to 0.00000551. If that happens, you can always bottom pick the market.

YOYOW (YOYO/BTC)

YOYOW is the last coin in our altcoins list. From a low of 0.00000290 on September 12, YOYOW (YOYO/BTC) had a beautiful run that saw the market climb as high as 0.00000755 on November 2, 2018. That’s an increase of 160% in less than three weeks. If you see a move like this in a bear market, expect a dump to ensue. That’s exactly what happened.

Daily chart YOYO/BTC

With this dump, the market’s current range is between 0.00000290 and 0.00000550 with a midpoint at 0.00000420. YOYO made it on this week’s list because it just retested the midpoint. The price action makes it very likely for the market to revisit the range support. If the support holds, YOYO/BTC would form a triple bottom structure.

Bottom Line

With Bitcoin printing new lows last week, this week’s list involved altcoins that are ripe for bottom picking. If you’re planning to trade one or more of these coins, you can follow the range that we’ve put together for you. As always, consider buying the support and selling the resistance.

 

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.8 stars on average, based on 286 rated postsKiril is a CFA Charterholder and financial professional with 5+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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Altcoins

Litecoin Price Analysis: If Current Demand Zone Fails to Hold Then Next Stop is $3

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  • LTC/USD is at serious danger of another hard fall should the range-block seen be breached.
  • Back in December 2013, the price was at current levels and fell down to $1 over a two-year period.

Litecoin has been heavily weighted to the downside of late. The selling pressure intensified through the month of November. This month, December, has seen the pace of that bearish trend intensify. As a result, LTC/USD is trading at its lowest levels seen since May 2017. These moves of course are very much in-line with the rest of the market that has been in decline since the back-end of 2017 – start of 2018. Litecoin is down well over 90% from the start of this decline.

Deadly Range-Block

LTC/USD 4-hour chart

LTC/USD was allowed some time to breath after the chunky pressure south, through November. The price stabilized from 25th November, to then move into range-trading. This was the case right up until 6th December. Confined within a range-block, which technically trend to occur after such excessive movement, to then be resumed in that original aggressive trend of direction. The most recent, moving between a low of $29 to a high of $36, ahead of the firm breach lower on 6th December. This resulted in the price moving down to another fresh low of $22.55, on 7th December.

Once again, a similar observation can be seen via the 4-hour chart view. Since the 7th December, some stabilization has materialized. Currently it is shaping up another range-block, which is subject to a further extensive move to the downside. The low within this new formation, can be seen around the $23 mark; to the upside, this is capped at $28. A breakout south from this block could catastrophic and much more damaging than the prior. There isn’t much in the way of support for quite some way lower, should the price not be able to defy the odds and break higher from the block.

Downside Targets

LTC/USD weekly chart

Should the bears maintain the current course of downside, then the lower support of the current range will be broken. As an extreme target south, eyes could be on a complete reversal of the 2017 bull run. This could see another 500% drop, this of course being a worse case scenario for LTC/USD. Given how fast the bulls ran up to the north, it can come back down just as hard. Back in December 2013, the price was around current levels within the $20 territory. The bears pushed for a hard fall of over 200%, down to $1 territory, over a two year period.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 78 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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