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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: A Major Top Could Be In

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This week will likely go down in the history of the cryptocurrency segment, whether or not we have seen a durable top, given Bitcoin’s epic rally above the $10,000 level. The trading frenzy of the recent period resembles a blow-off top that could be the starting point a deep and lasting correction.

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That said, with the rising short-term trends still being intact, and as the coins receive more and more mainstream media attention, it’s possible that the exact top is still ahead. What’s sure is that there will be much better opportunities to buy, and that correction risk hasn’t been higher.

The price of BTC breached the $11,000 level again, getting close to Tuesday’s all-time high after establishing support near $9000 during the mid-week correction. Below that, the coin has major support near $8200, $7700, $6700, and $6000. The extremely overbought momentum readings point to a deep correction in the coming weeks.

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BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Litecoin has been the strongest major altcoin, along with Dash and IOTA, and LTC is trading just below the $100 level this weekend. The coin is also in a severely stretched long-term setup, and we don’t expect durable new all-time highs in this cycle. Strong support is found near $75, $64, and $56.

LTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum

ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum’s break-out halted right at the $500 level amid the Bitcoin-Frenzy and the second largest coin followed BTC lower during the volatile break-down and the following bounce. The coin is not extremely overbought, but we expect a segment-wide correction, although ETH should outperform during it. Below the break-out level at $400support is found at $380 and $350.

Ripple

XRP/USDT, Daily Chart Analysis

Ripple is still the laggard among the majors form a long-term perspective and the coin followed the week’s wild moves within its long-standing trading range. The currency is stuck between the key $0.2250 and $0.26 levels this weekend, and it’s still neutral on all time-frames regarding momentum, while remaining on a buy signal. Support is still found just below $0.20, and at $0.18, while further resistance above $0.26 is found at $0.30.

Dash

DASH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Dash held up very strongly amid the volatile correction, proving its apparent relative strength once again. That said, the coin is clearly overbought, and although we expect it to remain strong in the coming months, a deep correction is likely. Key support levels are still found at just above $600, at $500, $470, and near $410.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic’s November rally was one of the strongest among the majors and the 200+% gain lead to an extremely stretched long-term setup. The coin’s initial correction took it back to the previous record high near $23, and we expect that level to be breached in a coming pull-back. Further support is found at $18 while the all-time high is ahead as resistance at $32.

Monero

XMR/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Monero reached our final target for its break-out this week, and it already re-tested the break-out level during the following correction. The coin remains in a short-term uptrend despite the overbought long-term momentum readings, but we expect further corrective price action before a major move higher with support levels at $180, $150, and $125.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

IOTA skyrocketed to $1.50, above our expectations after moving past the $1.1 resistance. The coin remained strong in the second half of the week as well, although it is the most overbought major together with BTC and ETC. Investors and traders should wait for the next correction with entering new positions, with key support levels at $1.1, $1, and $0.75.

How to Use These Charts?

As we stressed in our article on Bitcoin: “…not all strategies are binary (either holding an asset or not).There are many long- and short-term investment and trading strategies that can be successful in a roaring bull market like the one that the crypto-coin segment is experiencing, but mixing the time-frames and mixing trading and investing (see our article on the topic) could lead to troubles.”

Here is a reminder of some of the possible strategies once again:

  • Buy and hold, without caring about day-to-day (or even month-month) fluctuations
  • Buy and hold a core position and add on the major dips; a very powerful strategy
  • Buy a certain amount every week or month, and even-out your entry price, without the hassle of timing the market
  • Try to catch major turning points to reduce and “re-boost” your position
  • Trade short-term movements with stop-losses, targets, and strict risk management (this is trading not investing)”

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 109 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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3 Comments

3 Comments

  1. ezra

    December 3, 2017 at 1:45 am

    Hi thanks for all the analysis and advice – do you think it’s a good strategy to just hold on to what I have right now in cryptos without caring about the coming correction and just ride it all oout?

    • davidschiano

      December 3, 2017 at 4:25 am

      I totally agree with your comments mate, Hacked staff it’s just amazing, i really love all the work they do every day, e all their analysis where they are mostly of the time right and just in time!
      In my opinion to reply to your answer is necessary before to make you a question; What’s your way to invest? Are you an investors for long term investments, or are you a trader looking for fast profits?
      Hacked team always remember us to choose a strategy, and the explain us even between what we can choose.
      n the first case you probably should hold, and maybe get advantage to increase your existing position buying more coin.
      Otherwise if you are a trader looking for fast profit you should take advantage of this bull run, get flat and sell all now before the panic sell starts, and then re-buy with more money at the dip.

      As they start the article with LONG-TERM, that means that even investors should be carefull, and prepared, and maybe should take advantage now of the bull run to get flat and buy again on the dip.

  2. douglash

    December 5, 2017 at 5:16 am

    Does Hacked still see this as a major top, or is the market becoming more stable? Your more recent articles make this unclear. I am holding money on the sidelines to buy in on a correction, but it seems you’re no longer predicting that.

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Correction Continues but Coins Remain Stable

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It’s been another mixed session for cryptocurrency investors as judging by only the price action, the segment suffered losses across the board, but comparing the current sell-off to the January plunge reveals that the majors are much more resilient this time around.

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The largest digital currencies are holding on to most of the gains of the recent weeks, and the price action near the crucial support zones is also encouraging. With all that said, the correction is not over yet, and further losses are still in the cards, but barring a substantial change in price action, the coins will likely continue the rally.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Bitcoin has been trading around the key $10,000 level all day long, and, so far, a clear break-down has been averted. The short-term momentum indicators are now in neutral territory regarding the most valuable coin, and that could mean that a bottom is close, and investors should already add to their holdings here. Further strong support is found between $9000 and $9200, while targets are ahead at $11,300, $13,000, and $14,250.

XMR/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Correlation between the majors has increased during the sell-off, but there are still clear outperformers and laggards, adding to the bullish case. Monero remains among the strongest coins from a technical perspective, trading right at the lower boundary of the bullish consolidation pattern, with the $280 price level holding up for now. The coin faces strong resistance near $300 and $335, but we expect the uptrend to continue with the next target being ahead at $400, while further support is found at $240.

(more…)

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 109 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Pre-Market: Bulls Try to Fight Back after Ugly Overnight Session

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Following the steep late-day downturn on Wednesday, which followed the not-to-hawkish FED meeting minutes, Asian markets and US equity futures continued lower with a vengeance. The very active overnight trading is another sign of the regime change in traditional financial markets that we have been monitoring for the last two weeks, ever since the “Black Monday of 2018”.

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Dow Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EUR/USD Changing Behavior

The European session brought about an oversold bounce that stabilized markets from stocks to currencies. The EUR/USD pair that has started acting “normally” considering its relationship with US Treasury yields lately, is headed south once again, trading only 0.5% above its recent correction lows after clearly breaking below the rising trendline.

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EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The bull-trap that we identified a few days ago was the start of the current leg lower, and if the regime change will be persistent, the most traded forex pair could be back to the role of the “risk-on/risk-off” indicator that has been the privilege of commodity currencies in the last couple of weeks.

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Japanese Yen is showing notable strength after its overbought dip, and the primary safe-haven currency could be in for more gains, should the risk-selloff continue. The Yen also gained ground on the common European currency, following the dovish ECB meeting accounts and the misses in the German IFO business climate indicator and the British GDP, which all question the European growth-monetary tightening narrative.

Canadian Dollar in for a Wild Ride

USD/CAD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

With the Canadian retail sales report and the US crude oil inventory data coming out soon, forex traders should expect sizeable moves in the recently weak currency, while the USD should also be very active during the US stock market session.

All eyes are on Treasury yields again, with the slight correction today helping the bounce in stocks and other risk assets. The Nasdaq could be the motor of a stronger rally on Wall Street, but we wouldn’t bet the house on that, as the short-term technical setup remains bearish, and a re-test of the correction lows is still the most likely scenario for the coming weeks.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 109 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Bitcoin Tests $10,000 amid Correction

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The altcoin-triggered correction continued in the segment overnight amid the renewed sell-off in global stocks, with a slight bounce in Asian trading and a subsequent dip after the European open. The major coins are all down by more than 5% since yesterday, but for now, the momentum of the move is not worrying, and most importantly the leadership of the rally is holding up relatively well.

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Bitcoin bounced off the key $10,000 level, the $200 support zone held in Litecoin, Monero is still in its consolidation pattern above $280, and only Dash showed deterioration since yesterday, but the long-term picture remains encouraging even in Dash’s case.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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The above-mentioned levels in the technically strongest coins are not even the last line of defense for bulls, as the preceding strong rally left several key levels behind which could serve as the basis of the next leg higher.

Also, we expect the currently negatively diverging coins, led by Ethereum and Ripple, to start showing strength as the short-term momentum reaches oversold territory, and good entry points might be close both for traders and long-term investors.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

BTC touched the $10,000 support level, but for now, the technically more important $9000-$9200 zone is not in danger, and the short-term momentum indicators are already neutral thanks to the correction.

That said, more downside is likely in the coming days, but investors and traders should be looking for reversals to enter new positions, as we expect the uptrend to continue, with targets ahead at $11,300, $13,000 and $14,250.

Ethereum Provides a Glimmer of Hope

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Although bears are still in control regarding the short-term picture in the second largest coin, this morning ETH didn’t hit a significant new swing low, and that could be the first sign of relative strength, with the $845 support not far above the current price level, and the MACD indicator is already near oversold territory.

Despite the slightly positive sign, short-term traders should remain defensive concerning the weaker coins, while long-term investors should still accumulate the currencies on the dips.

Stay tuned for our detailed technical analysis later on today.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 109 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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