This week will likely go down in the history of the cryptocurrency segment, whether or not we have seen a durable top, given Bitcoin’s epic rally above the $10,000 level. The trading frenzy of the recent period resembles a blow-off top that could be the starting point a deep and lasting correction.
That said, with the rising short-term trends still being intact, and as the coins receive more and more mainstream media attention, it’s possible that the exact top is still ahead. What’s sure is that there will be much better opportunities to buy, and that correction risk hasn’t been higher.
The price of BTC breached the $11,000 level again, getting close to Tuesday’s all-time high after establishing support near $9000 during the mid-week correction. Below that, the coin has major support near $8200, $7700, $6700, and $6000. The extremely overbought momentum readings point to a deep correction in the coming weeks.
BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
Litecoin has been the strongest major altcoin, along with Dash and IOTA, and LTC is trading just below the $100 level this weekend. The coin is also in a severely stretched long-term setup, and we don’t expect durable new all-time highs in this cycle. Strong support is found near $75, $64, and $56.
LTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
Ethereum’s break-out halted right at the $500 level amid the Bitcoin-Frenzy and the second largest coin followed BTC lower during the volatile break-down and the following bounce. The coin is not extremely overbought, but we expect a segment-wide correction, although ETH should outperform during it. Below the break-out level at $400support is found at $380 and $350.
XRP/USDT, Daily Chart Analysis
Ripple is still the laggard among the majors form a long-term perspective and the coin followed the week’s wild moves within its long-standing trading range. The currency is stuck between the key $0.2250 and $0.26 levels this weekend, and it’s still neutral on all time-frames regarding momentum, while remaining on a buy signal. Support is still found just below $0.20, and at $0.18, while further resistance above $0.26 is found at $0.30.
DASH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
Dash held up very strongly amid the volatile correction, proving its apparent relative strength once again. That said, the coin is clearly overbought, and although we expect it to remain strong in the coming months, a deep correction is likely. Key support levels are still found at just above $600, at $500, $470, and near $410.
ETC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
Ethereum Classic’s November rally was one of the strongest among the majors and the 200+% gain lead to an extremely stretched long-term setup. The coin’s initial correction took it back to the previous record high near $23, and we expect that level to be breached in a coming pull-back. Further support is found at $18 while the all-time high is ahead as resistance at $32.
XMR/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
Monero reached our final target for its break-out this week, and it already re-tested the break-out level during the following correction. The coin remains in a short-term uptrend despite the overbought long-term momentum readings, but we expect further corrective price action before a major move higher with support levels at $180, $150, and $125.
IOTA/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
IOTA skyrocketed to $1.50, above our expectations after moving past the $1.1 resistance. The coin remained strong in the second half of the week as well, although it is the most overbought major together with BTC and ETC. Investors and traders should wait for the next correction with entering new positions, with key support levels at $1.1, $1, and $0.75.
How to Use These Charts?
As we stressed in our article on Bitcoin: “…not all strategies are binary (either holding an asset or not).There are many long- and short-term investment and trading strategies that can be successful in a roaring bull market like the one that the crypto-coin segment is experiencing, but mixing the time-frames and mixing trading and investing (see our article on the topic) could lead to troubles.”
Here is a reminder of some of the possible strategies once again:
- Buy and hold, without caring about day-to-day (or even month-month) fluctuations
- Buy and hold a core position and add on the major dips; a very powerful strategy
- Buy a certain amount every week or month, and even-out your entry price, without the hassle of timing the market
- Try to catch major turning points to reduce and “re-boost” your position
- Trade short-term movements with stop-losses, targets, and strict risk management (this is trading not investing)”
Featured image from Shutterstock
Disclaimer: The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.
Technical Analysis: Litecoin Continues Surge as Bitcoin Tests Highs
With the crypto world being focused on the historical futures launch, the major coins all enjoyed buying following a hectic weekend, and a volatile week as a whole. BTC itself got another boost from the widespread publicity and the volatile correction of the recent days ended, with the most valuable coin bouncing back towards its all-time high.
While the long-term picture remains severely overbought, the short-term picture is not stretched and further gains are possible even amid the elevated correction risk. That said, investors should wait for a more favorable entry point to ad dot their holdings, while traders should control position sizes in the light of the long-term setup. Major support levels are now near $13,000, $11,300, and $10,000, with stronger levels still at $8200 and $7700.
BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
The major altcoins are all up today, but only Monero and Litecoin are still within short-term uptrends, and the segment as a whole is still dangerously overextended, and a deeper correction is very likely in the coming weeks. LTC continued its recent break-out, getting close to the $200 level, and joining the extremely overbought group regarding the long-term momentum, and triggering a long-term sell signal in our trend model. Key support levels are found $100 at $75 and $64, with a weaker primary level at $125.
LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Long-Term Analysis of the Silver Market
The silver market has once again caught investors’ interest as the price is nearing areas not seen since late 2008.
2017 started at a low point for silver, and it seems it will end the year that way as well, meaning investors who bought at the beginning of the year haven’t suffered nor gained much.
This doesn’t mean, however, that the price hasn’t moved during the year. After the low start of the year, silver quickly tacked on about 18% to a top of $17.50 per ounce.
In terms of fundamentals in the silver market, things look a bit complicated for 2018. There are multiple forces pulling in different directions for the price of silver going forward:
- A sharp stock market correction can be expected to occur some time in 2018. Most likely, this will happen sooner rather than later. Stock market crashes always trigger a flight to safety, meaning gold, silver, and quite possibly bitcoin, can benefit.
- We are seeing signs that inflation may be starting to rise again, although this is not confirmed yet. Rising inflation is always good for precious metals.
- If the US federal budget deficit widens as a result of the new tax reform, the US dollar may suffer as a consequence. Goldman Sachs put out a note to investors in November 2017 saying that the US debt is “on track” to reach an “unsustainable” level in coming years. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has also said about the US debt that it is “the type of thing that should keep people awake at night.” Rising debt levels creates uncertainty about the economy, which is generally good for gold and silver.
- Central banks around the world seem committed to raise interest rates in 2018. Rising interest rates are bad for precious metals because it would make it more attractive to put money in the bank.
- The cryptocurrency bull market is on track to continue, diverting attention and capital away from precious metals as a traditional store of value. However, this one is uncertain, as it may also be considered a positive in the way that the rise of cryptocurrencies brings the inflationary and unsustainable nature of fiat currencies into focus.
- The US dollar may have hit a bottom in 2017 and trade higher compared to other major fiat currencies going into 2018. A stronger dollar is always bad for precious metals, which are priced in dollars.
When looking at the chart, we can see that silver is back down to were it started the year, which coincides with a major support area where it has turned several times in the past few years.
From a technical perspective, silver has been trading in a triangle pattern on the longer-term weekly chart, with the price now trading very near the lower end of the triangle, adding confluence to our bias that silver will trade up from here.
Silver failed to live up to our prediction from early 2017, and is now even trading well below the level from that time.
A low price by any measure combined with two major technical support levels adds confidence to our trade and makes silver a low risk and potentially high reward trade for 2018.
Depending on your own strategy and investment style, you may want to wait for the price to break out from the current triangle pattern it has been trading in for the past year and a half. You would then give up some of the potential return for an even safer trade. After that, major resistance is found around $17.50 and $18, with lots of upside potential if we can finally break through those levels.
Featured image from Pixabay.
Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Look Out Below?
After last week’s observation that a major top is in or near in the segment, the Bitcoin surge continued for almost a week, with Thursday’s wild session taking the coin as high as $19,000 (the article uses Bitstamp prices) on some exchanges. While the currency already pulled back by more than 20% the long-term picture is still extremely overbought and a much deeper correction is likely in the coming weeks.
BTC spiked below $13,000 today, violating the primary weak support at $13,300, with further levels now at $11,300, $10,000 and $9000, but stronger support only found at $8200 and $7700. Next week’s futures launch could cause another jump in trading activity, and volatility is expected to remain very high amid the likely correction.
BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
While not all altcoins participated in the, supposedly, last part of the rally, IOTA, Monero, and towards the end of the week Litecoin, also stretched above all conventional targets with IOTA also turning exponential after a deal with Microsoft. The coin exploded by more than 350% before entering an initial sharp correction, breaking the steepest short-term uptrend. Strong support is only found at $3 and $1.5, but potential Fibonacci support is at $2.35.
IOT/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
Let’s see how the long-term charts of the other altcoins look after the crazy week.
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