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Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Dash Breaks Out and Tops $300 as Bitcoin Enters Correction

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It was a great week for the patient Dash bulls, as the currency that has been trading in a broad consolidation pattern finally broke out to new highs. While the coin was relatively strong for a long-time, it failed to gather strong bullish momentum. This week, the correction ended with a vengeance, and Dash first hit prior range projection target at $260, and then surged above $300 today. While long-term investors shouldn’t take on new positions here, the short-term trend is clearly positive, and there is room for more upside, as the long-term momentum is still not overbought.

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DASH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Bitcoin hit a new all-time high near $4500, and then turned lower from a severely overbought position, dragging the rest of the market slightly lower, while Bitcoin Cash skyrocketed higher nearing the $1000 level, and the 25% of its forked peer in market cap. The other majors were mixed, with the long-term picture remaining basically unchanged for most of the coins. Ripple and Ethereum Classic are still notably lagging the market, while Ethereum, LItecoin, and Monero continue to trade sideways, still with good long-term prospects. Let’s see how the daily charts look, one month after the end of the deep crypto-correction.

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Bitcoin

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

BTC surged through our range projection target at $4200 as the coin got extremely overbought following the epic rally after July correction low, and the Bitcoin Cash fork earlier this month. The currency turned lower off the $4500 level and it’s currently trading near $4000, but the long-term picture remains overbought, pointing to more downside. Long-term investors should stay away from new positions now, with possible targets for the correction near $3450, $3150, and just below $2900.

Ethereum

ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum dipped lower in the beginning of the week, together with Bitcoin, but it recovered to the $300 level that has been dominating trading recently. The coin is still in a short-term uptrend, while the MACD indicator remains bullish. Support levels are found near $285 and $250 while primary resistance is ahead near $330.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Litecoin is trading in a long-term trading range since hitting a high in July, and the crucial $44 support/resistance level remains in focus. The MACD is in neutral territory thank to the sideways price action, and we expect a move above $50 in the coming weeks, as the long-term picture remains bullish.

Ripple

XRP/USDT, Daily Chart Analysis

Ripple continues to lag the other majors, with the coin drifting lower following the declining long-term trendline. The currency broke below the $0.16 level, proving the short-term weakness again.  While the long-term momentum is still neutral, the coin needs to hold above the $0.13 support, to maintain the long term uptrend. That said, investors could still add to their positions here, as another leg higher is more likely.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic is also testing the long-term support levels like Ripple, as the correction pattern remains intact in the coin as well. The lower boundary of the forming base pattern is holding for now, and the long-term picture is still constructive despite the deep correction. Investors could add to their positions here, while short-term traders should still wait with new trades. The $14, $16, and $18 levels are ahead as resistance.

Monero

XMR/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Monero has been trading in a bullish consolidation pattern after its strong rally, and it held up ell amid the broad correction in the second half of the week. The long-term picture remains encouraging, and a rally to new highs above $58 is likely in the coming days, even with the strong resistance ahead. The long-term MACD is still not overbought providing further room for the rally.

How to Use These Charts?

As we stressed in our article on Bitcoin: “…not all strategies are binary (either holding an asset or not).There are many long- and short-term investment and trading strategies that can be successful in a roaring bull market like the one that the crypto-coin segment is experiencing, but mixing the time-frames and mixing trading and investing (see our article on the topic) could lead to troubles.”

Here is a reminder of some of the possible strategies once again:

  • Buy and hold, without caring about day-to-day (or even month-month) fluctuations
  • Buy and hold a core position and add on the major dips; a very powerful strategy
  • Buy a certain amount every week or month, and even-out your entry price, without the hassle of timing the market
  • Try to catch major turning points to reduce and “re-boost” your position
  • Trade short-term movements with stop-losses, targets, and strict risk management (this is trading not investing)”

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 109 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. DroidBender

    August 19, 2017 at 10:51 pm

    The ETH/USD chart is incorrect.

  2. Chris G

    August 20, 2017 at 2:31 am

    looks like the eth/usd chart is a repeat of the btc/usd chart …

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: No Questions Answered

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Thursday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2718 0.97%
DAX 12,468 0.31%
WTI Crude Oil 62.61 2.02%
GOLD 1332.00 0.52%
Bitcoin 9780 -8.00%
EUR/USD 1.2324 0.26%

It was a strange day indeed in equity markets, with mixed signals popping up across the board after yesterday’s crazy quasi-FED day. An ugly overnight session, followed by a strong pre-market rally, an early-day pump, and a late-day dump. That is the summary of the day, but under the surface, there is a real struggle between market forces, with still an edge for bears in the battle for control.

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NASDAQ 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

It seems that the Nasdaq is still the key, as the relative strength of the tech benchmark is the most reliable gauge of the market direction, at least regarding the intraday trends. That said, at the end of the day, the Nasdaq closed in the red 4 times in a row, at least as far as the normal trading day is concerned, and still, the major indices are trading not far off last Friday’s top, despite the downward drift.

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Forex Markets and Commodities

Adding to the confusion, the Dollar corrected lower after a positive period, and with Treasury yields trading all over the place, investors were left scratching their heads yet again. The Japanese Yen was the clear winner of the day among currencies, as the primary safe-haven got bid heavily during the Asian session, and it remained throughout the up-and-downs of the day, despite the strong bounce in stocks and risk-on currencies.

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The EUR/USD pair had a very active and volatile session, but the common currency remained above the lows from two weeks ago, while also halting below yesterday’s highs, so all-in-all, no technical conclusion to draw. As in stocks, the next clear directional day will be crucial, as the tug of war is getting tenser and tenser.

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Canadian Dollar plummeted during the day, thanks to the dismal Retail Sales figures, but it finished well off its lows, boosted by the stock recovery and the jump in the price of crude oil. The Black Gold was pushed higher by the surprisingly bullish US inventory data, and the WTI contract closed back above $62.50 per barrel.

USD/CAD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Gold continued to follow the Euro, finishing the day slightly higher, but the precious metal showed notable relative strength during the Asian session, and that could be the precursor of a move to new rally highs, should the bearish scenario play out in equities.

Cryptocurrencies

The segment had another bearish session, and the bleeding continued after the US session, with BTC leading the way lower this time around after a long period of relative strength. A crucial test might be ahead of the most valuable coin, as the $9000-$9200 support zone would be a perfect target for the current correction, to keep the uptrend going. That said, that zone is still almost 50% above the prior low, leaving plenty of room for the coin to bottom out.

BTC/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

With all of the major altcoins also sporting significant losses, bulls would like to see more of the early relative strength that some coins have been showing, to establish a leadership that can guide the segment out of the plunge. For now, the crash lows are way below the current levels, and the bullish long-term scenario remains intact.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Correction Continues but Coins Remain Stable

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It’s been another mixed session for cryptocurrency investors as judging by only the price action, the segment suffered losses across the board, but comparing the current sell-off to the January plunge reveals that the majors are much more resilient this time around.

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The largest digital currencies are holding on to most of the gains of the recent weeks, and the price action near the crucial support zones is also encouraging. With all that said, the correction is not over yet, and further losses are still in the cards, but barring a substantial change in price action, the coins will likely continue the rally.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Bitcoin has been trading around the key $10,000 level all day long, and, so far, a clear break-down has been averted. The short-term momentum indicators are now in neutral territory regarding the most valuable coin, and that could mean that a bottom is close, and investors should already add to their holdings here. Further strong support is found between $9000 and $9200, while targets are ahead at $11,300, $13,000, and $14,250.

XMR/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Correlation between the majors has increased during the sell-off, but there are still clear outperformers and laggards, adding to the bullish case. Monero remains among the strongest coins from a technical perspective, trading right at the lower boundary of the bullish consolidation pattern, with the $280 price level holding up for now. The coin faces strong resistance near $300 and $335, but we expect the uptrend to continue with the next target being ahead at $400, while further support is found at $240.

(more…)

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Pre-Market: Bulls Try to Fight Back after Ugly Overnight Session

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Following the steep late-day downturn on Wednesday, which followed the not-to-hawkish FED meeting minutes, Asian markets and US equity futures continued lower with a vengeance. The very active overnight trading is another sign of the regime change in traditional financial markets that we have been monitoring for the last two weeks, ever since the “Black Monday of 2018”.

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Dow Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EUR/USD Changing Behavior

The European session brought about an oversold bounce that stabilized markets from stocks to currencies. The EUR/USD pair that has started acting “normally” considering its relationship with US Treasury yields lately, is headed south once again, trading only 0.5% above its recent correction lows after clearly breaking below the rising trendline.

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EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The bull-trap that we identified a few days ago was the start of the current leg lower, and if the regime change will be persistent, the most traded forex pair could be back to the role of the “risk-on/risk-off” indicator that has been the privilege of commodity currencies in the last couple of weeks.

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Japanese Yen is showing notable strength after its overbought dip, and the primary safe-haven currency could be in for more gains, should the risk-selloff continue. The Yen also gained ground on the common European currency, following the dovish ECB meeting accounts and the misses in the German IFO business climate indicator and the British GDP, which all question the European growth-monetary tightening narrative.

Canadian Dollar in for a Wild Ride

USD/CAD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

With the Canadian retail sales report and the US crude oil inventory data coming out soon, forex traders should expect sizeable moves in the recently weak currency, while the USD should also be very active during the US stock market session.

All eyes are on Treasury yields again, with the slight correction today helping the bounce in stocks and other risk assets. The Nasdaq could be the motor of a stronger rally on Wall Street, but we wouldn’t bet the house on that, as the short-term technical setup remains bearish, and a re-test of the correction lows is still the most likely scenario for the coming weeks.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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