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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Coins Consolidate But Uptrend Still Dominant

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The major coins had a quiet and slightly negative week, as the previous healthy rally faded away, and a shallow correction developed. As trading volumes continued to decline, and correlations also trended lower, the bull market remained intact in the segment, and the prospects of the next weeks are still positive.

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Ripple decoupled from the broader market, and continued the post-crash rally with a break-out above the $0.22 resistance as we expected.  XRP is now trading just below the $0.24 level likely on its way towards $0.26. As the short- and long-term are both encouraging, a quick rally to $0.30 is also in the cards. Support is now around $0.22, just below $0.20 and near $0.18.

XRP/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

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The other majors settled down towards the end of the week, with clear differences between the prior leaders, who are lagging in the rally, and those coins that are in later stages of the recovery. Dash, Monero, and Litecoin are relatively weak after their stellar rallies, while IOTA, NEO, and Ripple are among the current leaders together with Bitcoin. Ethereum Classic is still suspiciously weak, as the long-term trend remains in question for the coin. Let’s see the technical analysis of the daily charts.

Bitcoin

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

BTC held up well above primary support at $4150, despite exiting the short-term rising trend after running into resistance near $4400. The  MACD indicator still shows a bullish setup, and the relative strength of the most valuable coin is also encouraging. Key support levels below $4150 are at $3800 and $3500, while resistance is ahead at $4400 and near $4650.

Ethereum

ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum is finally is showing strength again today after successfully testing the $285 level, and climbing back above $300. The coin is likely to stage a rally in the coming week towards $330, while the $380 level is still ahead as strong resistance. The long-term setup is clearly bullish and we still expect the test of the all-time during this leg higher.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Litecoin remains inside a narrow trading range after showing weakness near the $56 resistance. The coin is still correcting its August rally that carried it near $100, but we expect the long-term rise to resume on the coming weeks. The $51 support is still in focus, with further levls at $44 and $38, while resistance is ahead at $64.

Dash

DASH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Dash bounced off  the $300 level durability the correction, while remaining relatively weak regarding the short-term picture. The currency is still inside a strong long-term uptrend, and although more sideways price action is likely, between $300 and $360, we expect the trend to resume soon. Support below $300 is found at $265, while resistance is ahead at $360 and near $400.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic is still the weakest major since the ICO-ban crash, and although it exited the declining ttends, both short- and long-term, it remains stuck below the key price range around $13.50. The coin is in a weak short-term advance, and traders should wait for the signs of relative strength and a break above primary resistance before entering new positions. Strong support is found at the $11 and $9 levels, while further resistance is ahead around the $16 level.

Monero

XMR/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Monero has been among the least volatile majors during the consolidation, and despite its short-term weakness, it is still among the most encouraging coins regarding the long-term prospects. Thr declining trend is still intact, but a break above it could open up the way towards the $100 and $125 levels, with support still found at $80 and $68.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

The coin had an active and bearish weak amid the broad correction, but it remains well above the key support zone between $0.45 and $0.48. IOTA established a trading range between that zone and the $0.64 resistance, and we still expect a bullish move out of that in the coming weeks after breaking the prior declining trend. Further support is still found at $0.35, while targets are ahead near $0.75 and $1.10.

How to Use These Charts?

As we stressed in our article on Bitcoin: “…not all strategies are binary (either holding an asset or not).There are many long- and short-term investment and trading strategies that can be successful in a roaring bull market like the one that the crypto-coin segment is experiencing, but mixing the time-frames and mixing trading and investing (see our article on the topic) could lead to troubles.”

Here is a reminder of some of the possible strategies once again:

  • Buy and hold, without caring about day-to-day (or even month-month) fluctuations
  • Buy and hold a core position and add on the major dips; a very powerful strategy
  • Buy a certain amount every week or month, and even-out your entry price, without the hassle of timing the market
  • Try to catch major turning points to reduce and “re-boost” your position
  • Trade short-term movements with stop-losses, targets, and strict risk management (this is trading not investing)”

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Grinds Higher as Records Tumble in Altcoins

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The historical surge in the segment, which is the second such move this year, continued today, with another round of break-outs in some of the major altcoins and tepid gains for BTC investors. Ethereum, Ripple, Dash, and first and foremost Litecoin was leading the charge, with the recent star LTC topping $300, just after a day of hitting the $200 mark.

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Litecoin defied all odds after reaching extremely overbought readings, and the coin rode the speculative wave, turning exponential, not unlike IOTA and Bitcoin previously. With the coin being stretched in an unprecedented way on all time-frames, investors could even consider selling their core positions at the current levels, as a deep correction is almost granted in the coming period. The first meaningful support level is found at $125, and a re-test of the $100 level is probable during the next major correction.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Ripple finally ended a long period of relative weakness today, and the only major on a long-term by signal jumped over primary resistance at $0.26 and crossed the $0.30-$0.32 too in the euphoric sentiment. As the coin is not long-term overbought following the 6-month long consolidation, the buy signal in XRP remains intact, with the only major resistance level being found at the all-time high near $0.425.

XRPUSDT/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Litecoin Continues Surge as Bitcoin Tests Highs

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With the crypto world being focused on the historical futures launch, the major coins all enjoyed buying following a hectic weekend, and a volatile week as a whole. BTC itself got another boost from the widespread publicity and the volatile correction of the recent days ended, with the most valuable coin bouncing back towards its all-time high.

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While the long-term picture remains severely overbought, the short-term picture is not stretched and further gains are possible even amid the elevated correction risk. That said, investors should wait for a more favorable entry point to ad dot their holdings, while traders should control position sizes in the light of the long-term setup. Major support levels are now near $13,000, $11,300, and $10,000, with stronger levels still at $8200 and $7700.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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The major altcoins are all up today, but only Monero and Litecoin are still within short-term uptrends, and the segment as a whole is still dangerously overextended, and a deeper correction is very likely in the coming weeks. LTC continued its recent break-out, getting close to the $200 level, and joining the extremely overbought group regarding the long-term momentum, and triggering a long-term sell signal in our trend model. Key support levels are found $100 at $75 and $64, with a weaker primary level at $125.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Analysis

Long-Term Analysis of the Silver Market

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Silver

The silver market has once again caught investors’ interest as the price is nearing areas not seen since late 2008.

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2017 started at a low point for silver, and it seems it will end the year that way as well, meaning investors who bought at the beginning of the year haven’t suffered nor gained much.

This doesn’t mean, however, that the price hasn’t moved during the year. After the low start of the year, silver quickly tacked on about 18% to a top of $17.50 per ounce.

In terms of fundamentals in the silver market, things look a bit complicated for 2018. There are multiple forces pulling in different directions for the price of silver going forward:

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Positives

  • A sharp stock market correction can be expected to occur some time in 2018. Most likely, this will happen sooner rather than later. Stock market crashes always trigger a flight to safety, meaning gold, silver, and quite possibly bitcoin, can benefit.
  • We are seeing signs that inflation may be starting to rise again, although this is not confirmed yet. Rising inflation is always good for precious metals.
  • If the US federal budget deficit widens as a result of the new tax reform, the US dollar may suffer as a consequence. Goldman Sachs put out a note to investors in November 2017 saying that the US debt is “on track” to reach an “unsustainable” level in coming years. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has also said about the US debt that it is “the type of thing that should keep people awake at night.” Rising debt levels creates uncertainty about the economy, which is generally good for gold and silver.

Negatives

  • Central banks around the world seem committed to raise interest rates in 2018. Rising interest rates are bad for precious metals because it would make it more attractive to put money in the bank.
  • The cryptocurrency bull market is on track to continue, diverting attention and capital away from precious metals as a traditional store of value. However, this one is uncertain, as it may also be considered a positive in the way that the rise of cryptocurrencies brings the inflationary and unsustainable nature of fiat currencies into focus.
  • The US dollar may have hit a bottom in 2017 and trade higher compared to other major fiat currencies going into 2018. A stronger dollar is always bad for precious metals, which are priced in dollars.

Silver chart

When looking at the chart, we can see that silver is back down to were it started the year, which coincides with a major support area where it has turned several times in the past few years.

From a technical perspective, silver has been trading in a triangle pattern on the longer-term weekly chart, with the price now trading very near the lower end of the triangle, adding confluence to our bias that silver will trade up from here.

Silver failed to live up to our prediction from early 2017, and is now even trading well below the level from that time.

A low price by any measure combined with two major technical support levels adds confidence to our trade and makes silver a low risk and potentially high reward trade for 2018.

Depending on your own strategy and investment style, you may want to wait for the price to break out from the current triangle pattern it has been trading in for the past year and a half. You would then give up some of the potential return for an even safer trade. After that, major resistance is found around $17.50 and $18, with lots of upside potential if we can finally break through those levels.

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