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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Coins Consolidate But Uptrend Still Dominant

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The major coins had a quiet and slightly negative week, as the previous healthy rally faded away, and a shallow correction developed. As trading volumes continued to decline, and correlations also trended lower, the bull market remained intact in the segment, and the prospects of the next weeks are still positive.

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Ripple decoupled from the broader market, and continued the post-crash rally with a break-out above the $0.22 resistance as we expected.  XRP is now trading just below the $0.24 level likely on its way towards $0.26. As the short- and long-term are both encouraging, a quick rally to $0.30 is also in the cards. Support is now around $0.22, just below $0.20 and near $0.18.

XRP/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

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The other majors settled down towards the end of the week, with clear differences between the prior leaders, who are lagging in the rally, and those coins that are in later stages of the recovery. Dash, Monero, and Litecoin are relatively weak after their stellar rallies, while IOTA, NEO, and Ripple are among the current leaders together with Bitcoin. Ethereum Classic is still suspiciously weak, as the long-term trend remains in question for the coin. Let’s see the technical analysis of the daily charts.

Bitcoin

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

BTC held up well above primary support at $4150, despite exiting the short-term rising trend after running into resistance near $4400. The  MACD indicator still shows a bullish setup, and the relative strength of the most valuable coin is also encouraging. Key support levels below $4150 are at $3800 and $3500, while resistance is ahead at $4400 and near $4650.

Ethereum

ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum is finally is showing strength again today after successfully testing the $285 level, and climbing back above $300. The coin is likely to stage a rally in the coming week towards $330, while the $380 level is still ahead as strong resistance. The long-term setup is clearly bullish and we still expect the test of the all-time during this leg higher.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Litecoin remains inside a narrow trading range after showing weakness near the $56 resistance. The coin is still correcting its August rally that carried it near $100, but we expect the long-term rise to resume on the coming weeks. The $51 support is still in focus, with further levls at $44 and $38, while resistance is ahead at $64.

Dash

DASH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Dash bounced off  the $300 level durability the correction, while remaining relatively weak regarding the short-term picture. The currency is still inside a strong long-term uptrend, and although more sideways price action is likely, between $300 and $360, we expect the trend to resume soon. Support below $300 is found at $265, while resistance is ahead at $360 and near $400.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic is still the weakest major since the ICO-ban crash, and although it exited the declining ttends, both short- and long-term, it remains stuck below the key price range around $13.50. The coin is in a weak short-term advance, and traders should wait for the signs of relative strength and a break above primary resistance before entering new positions. Strong support is found at the $11 and $9 levels, while further resistance is ahead around the $16 level.

Monero

XMR/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Monero has been among the least volatile majors during the consolidation, and despite its short-term weakness, it is still among the most encouraging coins regarding the long-term prospects. Thr declining trend is still intact, but a break above it could open up the way towards the $100 and $125 levels, with support still found at $80 and $68.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

The coin had an active and bearish weak amid the broad correction, but it remains well above the key support zone between $0.45 and $0.48. IOTA established a trading range between that zone and the $0.64 resistance, and we still expect a bullish move out of that in the coming weeks after breaking the prior declining trend. Further support is still found at $0.35, while targets are ahead near $0.75 and $1.10.

How to Use These Charts?

As we stressed in our article on Bitcoin: “…not all strategies are binary (either holding an asset or not).There are many long- and short-term investment and trading strategies that can be successful in a roaring bull market like the one that the crypto-coin segment is experiencing, but mixing the time-frames and mixing trading and investing (see our article on the topic) could lead to troubles.”

Here is a reminder of some of the possible strategies once again:

  • Buy and hold, without caring about day-to-day (or even month-month) fluctuations
  • Buy and hold a core position and add on the major dips; a very powerful strategy
  • Buy a certain amount every week or month, and even-out your entry price, without the hassle of timing the market
  • Try to catch major turning points to reduce and “re-boost” your position
  • Trade short-term movements with stop-losses, targets, and strict risk management (this is trading not investing)”

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Dow Leapfrogs 23,000 as IBM Beats Estimates

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Wednesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2560 0.13%
DAX 13043 0.35%
WTI Crude Oil 52.02 0.29%
GOLD 1284.00 -0.23%
Bitcoin 5435 -3.15%
EUR/USD 1.1793 0.23%

IBM surged higher today, as the company beat analysts’ expectations across the board, pushing the company’s shares up by more than 10% and helping the Industrial Average to a new all-time high yet again. The other major US indices kept on grinding higher as well for most of the day, despite the strong overvaluation, with the Volatility Index (VIX) still hovering around the 10 level. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 finished virtually unchanged after a late-session sell-off, while small caps outperformed in the mixed environment.

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DOW 30 Index, Daily Chart Analysis

Global stocks also edged higher, with the Nikkei still leading the way, although the momentum of the move is still weak. The Yen’s weakness was the most apparent trend in currency markets, while the Pound rebounded well, despite the persistent Brexit worries, with the Dollar giving back some of its recent gains compared to its major peers. Gold also remained under pressure after retreating back below $1300 this week, while crude oil rallied on a bigger than expected, hurricane-related decline in US production.

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Gold 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Cryptocurrencies

The major coins had a hectic and bearish session, especially in early trading, as Bitcoin’s overbought conditions coupled with Ripple’s sudden downturn led to a segment-wide decline. Ethereum continued to slip, as the Byzantium-related optimism faded away, but it remained well above the $285 level, and recovered above $300 towards the end of the session. NEO and IOTA still have a negative correlation with the rest of the market, as the two coins surged higher in early trading and gave back their gains during the late-day rebound.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Technical Picture

The DAX closed on a marginal new all-time high again, but the lengthy momentum divergence in the MACD indicator suggests that the steep uptrend continues to be in jeopardy. The low-volatility drift carried the benchmark above the 13,000 level, but a correction towards at least the 12,850 level is likely in the coming days, with another support level at 12,650 serving as a longer-term target. As the long-term uptrend is clearly intact, bears shouldn’t go all-in here but bulls should consider exiting their positions and wait until a correction to trade the long side again.

DAX, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Wednesday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
3:30 EUROZONE Mario Draghi Speaks
3:30 UK Average Earnings 2.2% 2.1% 2.1%
14:30 UK Claimant Count 1,700 3,200 -2,800
14:30 UK Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% 4.3%
16:00 CANADA Manufacturing Sales 1.6% -0.1% -2.6%
14:30 US Building Permits 1.22 mill 1.25 mill 1.27 mill
16:00 US Housing Starts 1.13 mill 1.18 mill 1.18 mill
15:45 US Crude Oil Inventories -5.7 mill -4.7 mill -2.7 bill

Key Economic Releases on Thursday

Time, CET Country Release Expected Previous
2:30 AUSTRALIA Employment Change 15,200 54,200
2:30 AUSTRALIA Unemployment Rate 5.6% 5.6%
4:00 CHINA GDP 6.8% 6.9%
4:00 CHINA Industrial Production 6.4% 6.0%
10:30 UK Retail Sales -0.1% 1.0%
14:30 US Unemployment Claims 245,000 243,000
14:30 US Philly Fed Index 22.2 23.8
15:45 US Chicago PMI 58.6 58.9

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Dumps and Pumps amid Broad Volatile Correction

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The crypto segment has been in turmoil today, as the most valuable coins turned significantly lower, leading to a mini-panic, but they rallied strongly off their slows as buyers stepped in the second half of the session.

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Bitcoin fell as low as $5100, for a 15% correction top-to-bottom, but it is now trading near the prior short-term support at $5400. As the long-term picture remains overbought, investors shouldn’t open new positions here, but traders could play a likely move towards the $6000 level, although we still advise small sizes, as correction risks remain elevated.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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The other majors were also declining in early trading, led by Ripple, with only NEO and IOTA, holding up well during the sell-off.  Both of the latter coins faded away as the rest of the market recovered, but Ripple continued to suffer. For now, the long-term bullish picture is unchanged for the segment, but BTC’s overbought correction could still cause volatility in the coming period. Let’s see the short-term charts after the busy session.

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Dollar Rally Continues amid Fed Chair Confusion

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Tuesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2554 -0.09%
DAX 12995 -0.07%
WTI Crude Oil 51.53 -0.66%
GOLD 1287.00 -1.22%
Bitcoin 5652 -0.86%
EUR/USD 1.1751 -0.38%

Yesterday’s trends are mostly continued in financial markets, such as the low-volatility levitation in stocks and the slightly more active trading in currencies with the apparent Dollar strength. The Great British Pound continued to be under pressure amid the amplified Brexit-related worries, but most of the other majors also lost ground to the Greenback.

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The Dollar rally has been fueled by the rise in the odds of some of the hawkish Fed Chair candidates, while overall, the “race” for the positions looks more chaotic than ever. Interestingly, the long-end of the yield curve is refusing to follow the short-term moves, and without the effects of the Fed’s QE program, the yield curve would probably be inverted by now, signaling strong recession risks.

Dollar Index (DXY), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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The major stock indices are virtually unchanged yet again and even the previously surging Nikkei entered a consolidation, adding to the unusual October lull. Commodities have been quite active thanks to the Dollar’s vigor, with crude oil and gold both turning lower. Oil gave back most of yesterday’s gains as the Iraqi-Kurdish conflict turned out to be less violent than previously feared, and the brief rally fizzled.

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Cryptocurrencies

The major coins are having a mixed session at best, as yesterday’s rebound wasn’t durable, and most of the coins turned back lower again. That said, despite the recent choppy price action, the total market cap of the segment is close to its all-time high, even as only Bitcoin is trading near its own record price level.

The optimism regarding Ethereum major Byzantium upgrade wasn’t enough to lift the second most valuable coin today, and the price of the ETH token retreated below the key $330 level after touching $350 yesterday after the upgrade’s lock-in. Ripple and NEO have been among the most active majors today, but with opposing performances, as Ripple fell significantly after yesterday’s break-out attempt, while NEO defied gravity and jumped above the $30 level after a corrective period.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Technical Picture

The S&P 500 is grinding higher despite the overbought short-term momentum readings, and the benchmark is trading very close to its all-time high. The 2550 level is still in focus, but until volatility remains near record lows, the minuscule moves are unlikely to change the technical setup. While a sudden drop in prices could quickly negate the recent break-out, the consolidation could very well lead to further upside, as bulls remain firmly in control, despite the lofty valuation levels.

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Tuesday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
02:30 AUSTRALIA RBA Meeting Minutes
10:30 UK CPI 3.00% 3.00% 2.90%
11:00 GERMANY ZEW Sentiment 17.6 20.3 17
12:00 EUROZONE Final CPI 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
15:15 US Industrial Production 0.30% 0.40% 0.20%
15:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate 76.00% 76.20% 76.10%

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