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Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Coins Consolidate But Uptrend Still Dominant

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The major coins had a quiet and slightly negative week, as the previous healthy rally faded away, and a shallow correction developed. As trading volumes continued to decline, and correlations also trended lower, the bull market remained intact in the segment, and the prospects of the next weeks are still positive.

Ripple decoupled from the broader market, and continued the post-crash rally with a break-out above the $0.22 resistance as we expected.  XRP is now trading just below the $0.24 level likely on its way towards $0.26. As the short- and long-term are both encouraging, a quick rally to $0.30 is also in the cards. Support is now around $0.22, just below $0.20 and near $0.18.

XRP/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

The other majors settled down towards the end of the week, with clear differences between the prior leaders, who are lagging in the rally, and those coins that are in later stages of the recovery. Dash, Monero, and Litecoin are relatively weak after their stellar rallies, while IOTA, NEO, and Ripple are among the current leaders together with Bitcoin. Ethereum Classic is still suspiciously weak, as the long-term trend remains in question for the coin. Let’s see the technical analysis of the daily charts.

Bitcoin

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

BTC held up well above primary support at $4150, despite exiting the short-term rising trend after running into resistance near $4400. The  MACD indicator still shows a bullish setup, and the relative strength of the most valuable coin is also encouraging. Key support levels below $4150 are at $3800 and $3500, while resistance is ahead at $4400 and near $4650.

Ethereum

ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum is finally is showing strength again today after successfully testing the $285 level, and climbing back above $300. The coin is likely to stage a rally in the coming week towards $330, while the $380 level is still ahead as strong resistance. The long-term setup is clearly bullish and we still expect the test of the all-time during this leg higher.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Litecoin remains inside a narrow trading range after showing weakness near the $56 resistance. The coin is still correcting its August rally that carried it near $100, but we expect the long-term rise to resume on the coming weeks. The $51 support is still in focus, with further levls at $44 and $38, while resistance is ahead at $64.

Dash

DASH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Dash bounced off  the $300 level durability the correction, while remaining relatively weak regarding the short-term picture. The currency is still inside a strong long-term uptrend, and although more sideways price action is likely, between $300 and $360, we expect the trend to resume soon. Support below $300 is found at $265, while resistance is ahead at $360 and near $400.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic is still the weakest major since the ICO-ban crash, and although it exited the declining ttends, both short- and long-term, it remains stuck below the key price range around $13.50. The coin is in a weak short-term advance, and traders should wait for the signs of relative strength and a break above primary resistance before entering new positions. Strong support is found at the $11 and $9 levels, while further resistance is ahead around the $16 level.

Monero

XMR/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Monero has been among the least volatile majors during the consolidation, and despite its short-term weakness, it is still among the most encouraging coins regarding the long-term prospects. Thr declining trend is still intact, but a break above it could open up the way towards the $100 and $125 levels, with support still found at $80 and $68.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

The coin had an active and bearish weak amid the broad correction, but it remains well above the key support zone between $0.45 and $0.48. IOTA established a trading range between that zone and the $0.64 resistance, and we still expect a bullish move out of that in the coming weeks after breaking the prior declining trend. Further support is still found at $0.35, while targets are ahead near $0.75 and $1.10.

How to Use These Charts?

As we stressed in our article on Bitcoin: “…not all strategies are binary (either holding an asset or not).There are many long- and short-term investment and trading strategies that can be successful in a roaring bull market like the one that the crypto-coin segment is experiencing, but mixing the time-frames and mixing trading and investing (see our article on the topic) could lead to troubles.”

Here is a reminder of some of the possible strategies once again:

  • Buy and hold, without caring about day-to-day (or even month-month) fluctuations
  • Buy and hold a core position and add on the major dips; a very powerful strategy
  • Buy a certain amount every week or month, and even-out your entry price, without the hassle of timing the market
  • Try to catch major turning points to reduce and “re-boost” your position
  • Trade short-term movements with stop-losses, targets, and strict risk management (this is trading not investing)”

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 380 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

XRP Price Analysis: Reports Indicate National Bank of Kuwait (NBK) is Set to Go Live With xCurrent

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  • Sources suggest National Bank of Kuwait (NBK) are moving closer to going live within Ripple’s xCurrent solution.
  • Despite current XRP/USD selling pressure, a bullish technical set up is still seen as a potential.

National Bank of Kuwait Ready to Use xCurrent

One of the largest banks in the Middle East, National Bank of Kuwait (NBK), is readying to move forward with xCurrent. It is reported this could be in place within the next few weeks. xCurrent is Ripple’s enterprise software solution that facilitates banks to instantly settle cross-border payments, providing end-to-end tracking.

The latest suggested is that the NBK are currently awaiting to receive the green light from the Central Bank of Kuwait. Sources close to the matter, are said to note that NBK are currently preparing for its first transaction with the xCurrent solution. In terms of time frame, the suggestions are for the back end of October, or by early November. These sources are being cited by the newswire, Crypto Briefing.

Earlier this year, in May, the National Bank of Kuwait mentioned Ripple via their official Twitter account. They tweeted, “NBK leads the way in Kuwait in a partnership with RippleNet to offer instant cross-border payments to customers Ripple.” Nothing further on this, from either the NBK or Ripple was noted.

It is important to note that the xCurrent solution does not use XRP tokens, unlike xRapid, which enables banks to send payments using XRP. It can then be transacted back into the appropriate fiat currency by the receiver. On the basis of the above noted, it is likely to have a direct influence on the value of XRP.

Technical Review – 4-hour Chart

XRP/USD 4-hour chart

Despite the consistent downside pressure observed with XRP/USD, a potential bullish technical set up can still be eyed. As seen on the 4-hour time frame, price action has been moving within a bullish flag pattern. The lower support has recently been penetrated by the market bears.

Near-term support eyed immediately at $0.4660-40 area, the below trend line. Further south, a demand zone is seen running from $0.4535 down to $0.4350. This was an area that caught the price during some hard selling at the back end of September. Bulls managed to kick started a recovery at this low area on 25th September. Should this technical set up fail to play out, eyes will then be on $0.4000 for support. Last traded down here on 15th October. Lastly, looking at resistance, this is seen just ahead at $0.4650, upper trend line of the flag. Ahead, there is heavy supply heading into and within the $0.5000 territory.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 33 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Crypto Update: Altcoin Season Is On The Horizon

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Altcoin season is a term used in social media and other online communities to describe the part of the market cycle where altcoins, such as Ethereum or Ripple, experience a meteoric rise in value against Bitcoin and the US Dollar. During this period, many altcoins enter a parabolic state that enables them to grow anywhere from 200% to 3000%. This was the case in the last alt season, which was from December 2017 to January 2018.

While this highly anticipated season can bring a lot of profits, it can also end in disaster to those who fail to correctly time the market. During the last season, many were slaughtered as they entered only after news of market explosions. Little did they know that they were already buying the top. Therefore, it is crucial to enter positions just before the season starts. The price movements in the last two months have given us reasons to believe that altcoins are preparing for a bull run.

In this article, we reveal why we believe that the altcoin season is on the horizon.

Altcoin Market Cap Appears to be Bottoming Out

The altcoin market cap is the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies minus Bitcoin’s market capitalization. We use this measure to track the amount of capital going in and out of all altcoins. The largest altcoin market cap ever recorded was at $554.916 billion in January 2018. Since then, the numbers have nosedived and even touched $78 billion in September. That’s an 85% devaluation.

The good news is $78 billion may have been the bottom as the entire altcoin market is working hard to generate a bullish higher low setup.

Altcoin market cap daily chart

A quick look at the daily chart reveals that the altcoin market chart is creating an inverse head and shoulders pattern. This structure is one of the most reliable patterns to indicate that the bottom is in. The higher low (right shoulder) tells us that participants are willing to buy at a higher price.

Bitcoin Dominance Looks Toppish

The Bitcoin dominance chart monitors the percentage of the cryptocurrency capital that can be attributed to Bitcoin. Bitcoin dominance has been on the up and up ever since it bottomed out at 32% on January 12, 2018. It climbed as high as 58% on September 9, but it has been sputtering since. This is a very good sign for altcoins.

A look at the chart reveals that Bitcoin dominance is toppish. It is moving near the apex of a rising wedge. More importantly, it appears to have created a bearish lower high setup. As we always say, the lower high kills bullish momentum.

What does it mean for altcoins and the alt season?

First, this chart doesn’t necessarily show that Bitcoin’s capital is decreasing. On the contrary, Bitcoin’s market cap is in the process of creating a higher low, which means money is flowing into the market. So if Bitcoin’s capitalization is not decreasing, then it would mean that new capital is being injected into altcoins. To be more accurate, altcoins appear to be growing at a faster pace than Bitcoin at the moment.

This would explain the bullish higher low setup of the altcoin market cap. Significantly more money is coming than leaving. Investments are flooding in that it threatens to send Bitcoin dominance into a downtrend.

Bottom Closely Resembles 2014 Bear Market

Technical analysis is the study of historical price movement. This is one of the reasons why we keep going back to the 2014 bear market. We study it to see if participants are behaving the way they did back then. What we discovered was surprising.

2014 altcoin bear market

During the 2014 bear market, altcoin market capitalization suffered a 86% devaluation in 38 weeks before it established a bottom. In today’s bear market, the altcoin market cap plummeted 85% in 36 weeks. From the looks of it, the bottom was already established on the 36th weekly bar on September 10, 2018.

2018 altcoin bear market

These are astonishing resemblances in terms of percentage loss and bear market length. If the resemblance continues, as clues suggest, then the altcoin season may be around the corner.

Bottom Line

The altcoin season can be profitable to people who enter the markets right before the explosion. In our analysis, we showed the stabilizing altcoin market capitalization, weakening of Bitcoin dominance, and mirroring to the 2014 bear market. All these clues tell us that alt season is on the horizon.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.7 stars on average, based on 253 rated postsKiril is a financial professional with 4+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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Altcoins

Bitcoin Cash Price Analysis: BCH/USD Bulls Have the Potential to Capitalize, Following a Bullish Technical Set Up

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  • BCH/USD broke out and retested a long-running descending trend line, but has failed to capitalize on this further.
  • George Hotz, also known as Geohot, says “Bitcoin Cash is the real Bitcoin.”
  • CoinText.io expands its Bitcoin Cash payment SMS service to Brazil and further European countries. 

“Bitcoin Cash is the Real Bitcoin”

George Hotz, also known as Geohot, an American entrepreneur and hacker, was recently commenting on Bitcoin Cash. Following the BCH Devcon in San Francisco he attended, Geohot demonstrated how to generate a BCH private key from scratch using python coding.

During his python video, George spoke highly of Bitcoin Cash. He said, “I’m using Bitcoin Cash because it’s the real bitcoin.” His reasoning for the preference of BCH over BTC was due to it having significantly lower transaction fees. Stating, “Transaction fees are super low on bitcoin cash.”

Bitcoin Cash Being Used in Brazil with CoinText.io

SMS cryptocurrency payment service, CoinText, has launched their services in Brazil and three other European countries – Poland, Romania and Croatia. CoinText doesn’t require apps, logins or Internet, and users can send Bitcoin Cash via SMS. A new wallet is automatically created when people have received Bitcoin Cash via SMS.

Specifically commenting on the Brazilian expansion, CoinText founder and CTO said, “Brazilians have been suffering from corruption and bad monetary policy,” says CoinText founder and CTO Vin Armani. “Cryptocurrency offers a way for them to peacefully opt out of a corrupt system.”

A move in which is further helping the adoption of Bitcoin Cash, via the CoinText service, he further noted, “Adding Poland, Croatia and Romania brings us closer to connecting the entire continent of Europe,” Armani added. “CoinText’s end-of-year goal is to enable all 740 million European residents to text money to each other’s phones for pennies.”

Technical Review – Daily Chart

BCH/USD daily chart

BCH/USD price action of late has been very much mundane following a promising breakout from a long-running descending trend line. It had been contained below and rejected on several occasions, from the back end of July. Bulls managed to pull off a decent breakout to the upside, which took place between 26-27th September.

After observing the break above, then pullback for a retest of the breached trend line, it looked very promising. This as such played out to the textbook, however bulls failed to capitalize and drive further north. Instead, the price remained within a consolidation nature, a lack of commitment in either direction. Perhaps the bulls are sitting on the launchpad, ready to send this into orbit, time will tell here.

Looking at technical areas of interest, to the upside, resistance has capped upside well into $500 territory. Tracking from $455-80, which has been evident the past few sessions. A firm push higher, will allow $550 region to come back into play. In terms of buyers, they can be found from the current price, all the way down to $400 the round figure.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 33 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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