Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Break-Down or Reversal Ahead?
From a long-term technical perspective, not much has changed in the cryptocurrency segment in the past few weeks, with only Bitcoin’s rally providing bulls something to cheer about. The bearish trend that has been dominant for months is still intact in most cases, and despite the several rally attempts, sellers always returned strong, pushing the major coins back towards the key support levels that have been tested in recent months.
The total value of the market has been stuck below $300 billion, with the exception of a few brief spikes, while capital flows were negative almost all year. In spite of the clear segment-wide selling pressure, the most important coins are still holding up above key support, and BTC’s current relative strength is a possible game-changer for the coming weeks. Should the top coins follow the relatively weaker ones, such as LTC and XMR below long-term support, a longer structural bear market could commence.
BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
For now, BTC is safely above the structurally important $5850 level, and the coin broke out of the declining trend during the recent surge. That said, given the widespread selling pressure in the market, a trend change is not yet confirmed and traders shouldn’t enter full positions here, while investors should still hold on to their coins.
In the case of a breakdown below $5850, the next major support is found at $5000, while a recovery above $8400 would confirm a new uptrend. In the current broad trading range, the $7650-$7800 zone is the most important with other levels of interest at $7350, $7000, $6750, and $6250.
ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
Ethereum has been showing short-term weakness compared to Bitcoin despite the fact that that the April lows are still well below the current price level. The downtrend in the coin is clearly intact, and a test of the 4360 level is now very likely, even if a bullish reversal is ahead. The long-term trend signal is neutral for ETH, while short-term the coin is on a clear sell signal. Support above the April low is found at $400 and $380, while strong resistance is ahead at $450, $500 and between $555 and $575.
LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Litecoin continues to lead the way lower, being stuck in a long-term downtrend after failing to rally durably above the $90 support/resistance level. The $75 support is currently in focus again, and a move below that is likely, given the strong downtrend. Traders and investors shouldn’t enter new positions, with further strong resistance ahead at $100 and support found near $64-$65.
DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Dash is also weak on all time-frames, trading on a new cycle low already, below the $215 support. The coin bounced back as far as $300 during the consolidation phase, but as the break-out above resistance failed, the strong downtrend remains intact. Primary support is now found at $200, while resistance is ahead at $265, near $300, and at $360.
XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Ripple experienced a hectic consolidation period, but as selling pressure remained apparent, all rally attempts failed. The coin is barely holding up above the structurally important support level near $0.42, while trading has been centered around the $0.45 level for weeks Above that, strong resistance is ahead at $0.51, $0.54, and $0.64, while the next major support zone is found between $0.30 and $0.32.
ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Ethereum Classic continues to be very volatile and range-bound, and the coin is in a relatively stronger position compared to the other majors, trading well above the key $13-$13.50 zone. That said, the short-term setup is still bearish, and traders shouldn’t enter new positions here. Further support is found near $16, $14.50, and $11, while resistance is ahead at $18.
XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Monero experienced wild counter-trend rallies after its structural break-down, similarly to Dash, but as the coin failed to recapture key resistance zones, the downtrend remains intact. Now, XMR is back near the June low, and a test of the lows, and even new lows are likely in the coming weeks, so traders and investors should stay away from the coin. Support is still found near $110 and $80, while resistance is ahead at $125, $150, and $175.
NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
The strong bounce in NEO also fizzled out, and the coin drifted back towards the June lows, together with the other relatively weak coins, confirming the segment-wide downtrend. Now, a move to $25 is likely even if a reversal is close, and traders and investors should stay away from entering new positions here. Primary support is found near $2650, while resistance is ahead at $30 and $34.
IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
IOTA is stuck in a strong downtrend, and the coin is trading right at the June low, risking a structural break-down and a long-term sell signal. Barring a quick reversal, a move to $0.75 is likely, with further levels at $0.64, and $0.48, and resistance ahead at $1, $1.1, and $1.2.
EOS/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
EOS is hovering above the key $6.50-$7 zone, still showing long-term technical strength, but a move below that zone would be a bearish sing, and the recent short-term relative weakness is suspicious. Traders should still not enter new positions here, while investors should hold on to their coins, with further support found at $4.50, and resistance being ahead near $9, $10, and $12.
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Disclaimer: The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.