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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, and Dash

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It was a long and frustrating week for most cryptocurrency traders as the correction in the two main coins, Bitcoin and Ethereum continued, with a long low-volatility drift that was followed by a decline on Friday. To put the week in perspective, the long-term charts are basically unchanged, even as the short-term moves are being magnified by the recent sharp swings in both directions.

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Given the several 100% of gains this spring, the correction is a normal part of the market cycle, and with some of the majors already hitting new highs since the lows last Monday, and the other trading also above their lows, the long-term uptrend seems intact in the sector. But are we close to a new leg up? Let’s see what the charts say.

Bitcoin

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BTC/USD Daily Chart Analysis

BTC is still roughly in line with our projection for the correction and although more time is likely needed before a sustained move higher if we use the previous cycles as a comparison. The currency has likely already hit its correction low, but a re-test of the developing is still possible in the coming period.

Ethereum

ETH/USD Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum is also trading above the correction lows, despite being relatively weaker recently. As the coin outperformed Bitcoin by a mile during the spring rally, the deeper (50%) correction was justified. The declining short-term trend remains intact with strong support zones at $230 and at $200. The MACD is already back to neutral, although it’s still bearish, and the short-term declining trend is also intact. Volume is trending lower, and the momentum of the correction is falling. A break-out above the declining trendline could open up the way to $300, while the re-test of the lows is still possible.

Litecoin

LTC/USD Daily Chart Analysis

Litecoin is in a different “rhythm” compared to the two giants, as it hit a new high this week before entering a short-term correction. The long-term picture shows slightly overbought readings and a bearish divergence that points to a consolidation in the near future. One more push higher to reach the range projection target around $58-$60 is possible, but we would wait for a neutral reading on the MACD before entering new positions.

Ripple

XRP/USDT Daily Chart Analysis

Ripple is still stuck in a long-term consolidation since mid-May, which started after a 7-fold rise in only two months. The coin is trading in a broad range that has been intact since the end of May. The MACD indicator is still neutral and trading volumes remain very low compared to the active periods. Short-term traders should still wait with new positions, while long-term investors could still add to their positions here.

Dash

DASH/USD Daily Chart Analysis

Dash is still the most bullish major, despite the recent breakout that failed hold above $200. The long-term MACD is just after a bullish cross, and although it didn’t reach neutral territory it still has more room for even a strong rally from here. Short-term positions could be opened near the current levels, anticipating a move above this week’s highs, with a long-term target still ahead just below $260.

How to Use These Charts?

As we stressed in our article on Bitcoin: “…not all strategies are binary (either holding an asset or not).There are many long- and short-term investment and trading strategies that can be successful in a roaring bull market like the one that the crypto-coin segment is experiencing, but mixing the time-frames and mixing trading and investing (see our article on the topic) could lead to troubles.”

Here is a reminder of some of the possible strategies once again:

  • Buy and hold, without caring about day-to-day (or even month-month) fluctuations
  • Buy and hold a core position and add on the major dips; a very powerful strategy
  • Buy a certain amount every week or month, and even-out your entry price, without the hassle of timing the market
  • Try to catch major turning points to reduce and “re-boost” your position
  • Trade short-term movements with stop-losses, targets, and strict risk management (this is trading not investing)”

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1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. Chris G

    July 9, 2017 at 4:22 pm

    After hitting the .0008 stop loss on the potential BTC/BTS trade, I’m rolling that over into Dash. Thanks for all the solid recommendations @MateCser

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Analysis

Cryptocurrency Analysis: Ripple Continues Rampage as Litecoin and Ethereum Enter Correction

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Ripple remained in the center of attention in the segment after breaking out to a new all-time high yesterday, and the coin almost doubled in value, climbing above the $0.80 level. The currency concluded a 6-month long consolidation pattern with the move after being the only major on a long-term buy signal in our trend model.

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XRP gave a short-term sell signal today, while turning neutral regarding the long-term setup. Investors now shouldn’t add to their positions, although further gains are still possible, and reducing holdings somewhat is a good idea here. Major support is still found at the prior high near $0.4250 and in the $0.30-$0.32 range.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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While Bitcoin stagnated, and Bitcoin Cash jumped, Ethereum, Litecoin, Dash, and IOTA has been drifting slightly lower, although the recent gains are still mostly intact, and the basic setup in the segment is unchanged.

Litecoin fell below the $300 level after yesterday’s consolidation, and the coin faced strong selling pressure in the latter half of the session. The currency remains extremely stretched regarding the long-term momentum indicators, and although the short-term uptrend is still intact, a deeper correction is likely in the coming weeks, with key support levels found at $125 and $100, and weaker levels at $260 and $170.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Dollar Falls, Gold Jumps after Yellen’s Final Move

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Wednesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2668 -0.02%
DAX 13125 -0.45%
WTI Crude Oil 56.65 -0.68%
GOLD 1258.00 1.35%
Bitcoin 16,100 -6.32%
EUR/USD 1.1842 0.73%

The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates as expected today, and although the central bank’s monetary statement was slightly more hawkish than expected, the market’s reaction didn’t reflect the much-anticipated move. The worse than expected Core CPI reading that underlined the low-inflation narrative weighed on the recently strong Greenback, while stocks were unchanged after decision and bonds gained ground as yields retreated.

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EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The major indices are hovering near their all-time highs with the DOW leading the way higher, hitting a new record for the second day in a row. While volatility Is expected to remain low as we approach the end of the year, market internals and valuation levels are still concerning from a long-term perspective, and stocks outside the US are also negatively diverging. The action in crude oil could be slightly more interesting as the commodity is starting to act in a slightly bearish manner after a grinding multi-month rally.

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WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Brexit process is still in the center of attention in Europe, although volatility took a nosedive on the old continent as well, and it’s unlikely that the Christmas period will be much different, given the predictable drop in volumes and trading activity. The date of the next election in the financially and politically troubled Italy has been set to March 4th next year, and the early date caused some turmoil in the countries assets, which dragged the Euro Stoxx 50 lower today, together with the DAX and the other major indices.

Cryptocurrencies

As the total market cap of the crypto-market crossed the incredible $500 billion mark, Ripple, NEO, and Ethereum made headlines with lofty gains in the face of the severely overbought readings elsewhere in the segment. While XRP and NEO are still not overbought from an investment perspective, Ethereum reached our final target for its break-out and triggered a long-term sell signal.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The previously surging IOTA continued its correction, Litecoin consolidated in a relatively narrow range, while Dash, ETC, and Monero scored marginal new highs before turning lower together with BTC. The most valuable coin that has lost some of its momentum “mojo” in recent days fell back below last week’s highs, and that could mark a failed break-out and a start of the deeper correction that seems more and more likely.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Wednesday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
11:30 UK Average Earnings 2.5% 2.5% 2.3%
11:30 UK Claimant Count Change 5,900 3,300 6,500
11:30 UK Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.2% 4.35
15:30 US Core CPI 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -5.1 mill -3.6 mill -5.6 mill
21:00 US Fed Rate Decision 1.5% 1.5% 1.25%
21:00 US FOMC Statement

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Volatility on the Rise Again, as Ripple and Ethereum Hit Targets

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Ripple has been the star of today’s session in the cryptocurrency segment, as the only major coin on a long-term buy signal in our trend model continued yesterday’s break-out, and surged to a new all-time high. The currency cleared the $0.425 level that marked the top in May, and after the more than 6-month long consolidation phase, it promptly neared the $0.50 level.

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While the short-term momentum indicators are now stretched, the coin is still in an encouraging long-term setup, although the best period to buy already passed. The coin could be dragged lower in the case of the expected broad correction in the segment, but we expect XRP to outperform in the coming period, with support levels found at the prior high and below that in the range between $0.30-$0.32.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Ethereum has been the other top coin on the rise, as the second largest digital currency surged past the final range projection target of the break-out two weeks ago at $685 in the aftermath of the launch of the BTC futures on Monday. The ETH token is now also on a sell signal on all time-frames, and we advise investors and investors to wait for the next major correction to establish new positions. Support levels are now found at $575, $500, $480, and $400.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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