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Is “Crypto” Too Dependent on Bitcoin?

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If you were to play a word association game with anyone in the general public, and said “cryptocurrency”, the first thing they would say would almost definitely be “Bitcoin”. Bitcoin and cryptocurrency are effectively interchangeable to a large portion of the world, and this might be a bad thing.

By having it so all cryptocurrencies are painted with the same broad strokes that Bitcoin is, all nuance disappears and it becomes easier to dismiss the industry as a whole. This is extremely unfortunate, as many of the most interesting use cases of cryptocurrency and blockchain technology are completely unrelated to Bitcoin.

The Economic Risk

And if someone were to want to deposit money into their Binance account, they would most likely end up doing it using BTC or ETH (although Binance does allow deposits with other coins like LTC, NEO and BNB). Because of this, you have a strange correlation between Bitcoin and the entire sector. Would-be-investors must purchase Bitcoin or Ethereum in order to put their money in altcoins, and this pushes up the price of these more “blue chip” coins.

Right now, everything is valued in accordance with Bitcoin. Part of the reason for the massive run-up of crypto prices occurred in late 2017 is Bitcoin was continuing to increase in price, and a rising tide carries all ships. The question becomes whether this turns Bitcoin into a transactional currency of sorts, and if it will end up being artificially propped up for this reason, if at least until another coin becomes seen as the transactional coin of choice.

With many Bitcoin enthusiasts calling for Bitcoin to hit astronomical values before the end of the year, the assumption is that the rest of the crypto sector would participate in that increase as well. But no one is asking the question: is this a good thing? The Internet was very similar in the beginning, but eventually it evolved and spawned numerous unrelated entities that all employed the technology. Now we are waiting for the same thing to happen with crypto.

The Security Risk

The industry is currently configured in a way such that the flow in and out of the Bitcoin ecosystem is easily monitored and controlled. The high level of centralization through major players like Coinbase has made it easy to track the flow of coins. Yes, this has allowed for an extensive analysis and segmentation of the various groups, as shown above, but it also impedes on the censorship resistant aspect of the cryptocurrency.

If you have most cryptocurrency purchases flowing through Bitcoin and Ethereum, and Bitcoin addresses can already be tracked with relative ease by other companies in the space, then does one of the main promises of Bitcoin disappear?  

The Political Risk

Finally, and maybe most importantly, does the dependency on Bitcoin create something very similar to a centralized node? And does this hurt the future of Bitcoin by not being able to provide the same anonymity that was originally anticipated?

It has always been assumed that decentralization was a good thing, and that sort of power shift is much of what Bitcoin originally promised to its users. But along with decentralization are a bunch of other characteristics that need to be continually supported for Bitcoin to maintain its value.

For example, Bitcoin needs to stay “trustless”, and as soon as users question the security of the network, all is lost. And censorship resistance by way of anonymity was always a libertarian dream that Bitcoin seemed to guarantee, but it is possible that the overly centralized exchanges have compromised that.

Centralized exchanges are currently necessary to convert money from fiat to crypto. You can use decentralized exchanges to trade between different cryptocurrencies, but you will need a centralized exchange in order to get your money into the market. This can be very frustrating if you are trying to avoid volunteering identification information, or just feel that it is a violation of what Bitcoin is all about.

There are tons of advantages to decentralized exchanges, such as the security and reliability, which are two notable issues with centralized exchanges right now. One of the most commonly given beginner tips regarding crypto is to keep your assets off the exchange, lest it be compromised. Currently these exchanges are much more expensive to use, but prices are coming down as kinks are worked out and a higher level of scale is reached. This bodes well for the network and the entire industry, because of the added confidence both insiders and outsiders will have in the technology.

To be considered “decentralized”, a project must be both censorship resistant and immune to any authoritarian modifications. Technically, the current use of Bitcoin fulfills these conditions, but in spirit, we are starting to see the centralized rent-seeking of massive exchanges make things appear a lot more ambiguous. So then the question is, does this threaten the whole crypto industry?

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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EOS Price Analysis: EOS/USD Back in Unsettled Territory, as Price Runs into Sellers Again

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  • The EOS/USD bulls are unable to sustain any upside momentum following a breach of critical support.
  • Near-term supply is eyed in the early $2.5000 region. A break above would likely open the door for another retest of the big $3.0000.

The EOS price was seen creeping lower again in the early part of trading on Tuesday. This comes after a big jump to the upside seen in the second part of the session on Monday. EOS/USD had gained a chunky double-digits, around 12%, at the close of the daily. Buyers came in after the low print on Sunday 13th at around $2.25. This was within a market demand zone, tracking from $2.25-$2.35, having supported the price on occasions in December and January.

Recap: Big Breach of Critical Support

EOS/USD daily chart.

As a reminder, EOS/USD throughout its most recent bull run, which was seen from 6th December right up to 9th January, was well-supported. An ascending trend line could be observed, providing necessary comfort to the bulls. However, all runs must come to an eventual end, and the bears smashed through this support on 10th January. Given the break through this vital area, it exacerbated the move to the downside. The price had dropped a heavy 22%, taking a big blow after a strong run.

Barriers Blocking Bulls

The bulls have been cut short for now, not being able to have sustained that momentum from the session on Monday. Trading has been extremely choppy since 19th December, via the daily chart view, highlighting a real lack of consistency in either direction. A consecutive streak longer than two days from either bear or bull camp hasn’t happened since the run higher in mid-December. This demonstrates just how mundane and non-committed market participant are for now.

In addition to the last statement above, further technical levels and areas continue to plague direction. To elaborate, there are more areas that the price must deal with now in comparison to the smooth bull run higher seen in 2017. Separately, if looking at 2018, the bears generally had an easy ride south. This is thanks to the cryptocurrency instruments being so young still in age.

Key Near-term Levels

For the bulls to see greater upside, a break of near-term supply within the early $2.5000 region will need to push prices forward. This should open the door to a fast move to see a retest of the breached ascending trend line. In proximity to this is the psychological $3.0000 mark, which has proven to be a huge barrier for the bulls. To the downside, the mentioned demand area of $2.35-$2.25 is critical, and a failure to hold will be very punishing. Lastly, EOS/USD would be subject to a move sub-$2.0000, where support can be eyed. As a further worth case, then $1.5500 to be retested, the December low.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

 

 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 106 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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GBP Price Prediction: British Pound Jumps on Growing Backing for PM May’s Brexit Deal Ahead of Vote

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  • GBP catches a bid across the board as Prime Minister Theresa May gains ERG support.
  • Despite session gains, GBP/USD technically has vulnerabilities to downside risks, given rising channel formation.

GBP Bulls Awaken

The British pound (GBP) saw a decent jump to the upside on Monday, after an initially very choppy directionless start to the session. The buying swooping into GBP/USD came on the back of a growing number of ministers set to back Prime Minister Theresa May. Specifically, attention was grabbed after closely followed political watcher Robert Peston tweeted that “influential Tory Brexiter MP tells me he and his ERG Brexiter colleagues will be voting with Theresa May and the government all day tomorrow”. This is significant as the ERG is a very influential Brexit research group, which was previously plotting ways to oust PM May.

GBP/USD jumped to its highest level seen since 22nd November. The pair had seen an initial spike of 85 pips to the upside. Gains were capped however by a known strong area of supply; this can be seen tracking from 1.2870 up to 1.2930. The price has not been above here since 15th November 2018, and the bulls having faltered here on several occasions attempting to move above. Should GBP/USD manage to move above this zone, it would be a very strong signal that it is out of the bear market. Technically, this would be largely attractive for inviting further buyers to come in.

A detailed analysis of the upcoming Brexit vote can be viewed here: This Tuesday Will Be Zero Hour For the British Pound

Price Remains Confined Within Channel

GBP/USD daily chart. Price action remains within the confinements of a rising channel.

Another key technical observation is an ascending channel formation, which can be viewed via the daily chart. The GBP/USD pair has been moving within this since 12th December 2018, having gained over 400 pips since it took shape. The daily candle today briefly spiked above the upper tracking trend line of the pattern. However, the price was squeezed back within the confinements of this. Touted profit-taking kicked in towards the close of the European markets. This is not too surprising, as participants maintain an element of caution heading into the high-profile vote.

Given the nature of the above-described formation, should it play out to the textbook, vulnerabilities still point to a breakout south. This move would be heavily assisted should the British Prime Minister lose the meaningful vote on Tuesday. In terms of key levels to note, to the upside, a break above the 1.2930 supply zone will invite large buying pressure. To the downside, a breach of 1.2650, the lower support of the channel, will open flood gates to selling.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 106 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

GBP/USD Price Prediction: GBP/USD Pump and Dump Eyed

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  • GBP/USD has been rallying heading into the crucial vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal with the EU.
  • Markets could very well be making room for a big sell-off, depending on the outcome.

Markets Expect PM May to Fail

GBP/USD surprisingly has been making its way north, as the price on Friday made one final big push for the week. This comes despite the crucial vote on Tuesday 15th January, where UK parliament will vote on PM May’s EU deal. It appears the market is strongly anticipating the Prime Minister will lose this. As a result, the case for this is already being priced in.

Despite the fact the markets are expecting this sort of outcome, there could still very well be room for a large fall for GBP. This rally being observed may be the pump, making room ahead of it encountering a large dump. In terms of this type of behavior it has been seen time and time again ahead of big market moving events.

In these heightened times of uncertainty, both economically and politically, GBP/USD has still managed to close in the green for four weeks running. It has moved to its highest levels seen since week of 26th November. This has been the longest weekly run observed for the pair, going back as far as August 2018.

Key Technical Levels

GBP/USD 4-hour chart.

Looking via the 4-hour chart view, an ascending channel formation can be eyed, which has been in play since 11th December. Despite the freak mini touted flash crash on 2nd January that rippled the markets, GBP/USD has respected this pattern. The price has been grinding higher within this, having gained almost 400 pips.

The bull run on Friday was capped by the upper acting trend line, which is tracking at 1.2860-70. It did print its highest level since 22nd November in that latest squeeze higher. Given the further wave of uncertainty that will hit the market next week, the price will likely continue to respect this channel. Keeping in mind the recent rejection on Friday, price pressures to the downside could be eyed at the open. Support levels to note via the 4-hour; 1.2770, 1.2716 and then 1.2660.

GBP/USD weekly chart.

In terms of the weekly chart, should the bulls intend to resume the upside pressure, they will need to break down 1.2870. This is a resistance area and a break and close above can open the door for a return to the psychological 1.3000 mark. To the downside, big weekly levels to note are 1.2770 and 1.2660. Any failure of those mentioned holding, then a fast move back south to a demand zone tracking from 1.25-1.2400 is to be expected.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

 

 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 106 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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