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Fire & Fury

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Hi Everyone,

Global stock markets are in a bit of a tizzy this morning. The recent escalations between the USA and DPRK seem to be a bit more than your average sticks and stones name calling between international leaders.

Though the stocks have been largely able to ignore this issue as remote for the past few years it does seem that a bit of reality is interrupting the day to day euphoric stock buying cycle. By no means are we in a bear market. The stocks are doing exceptionally well in so far in August.

However, there are some telltale signs of fear creeping into the global financial picture. Let’s take a look…

Please note that by popular demand, political opinions will be kept out of today’s update. The pissing match between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un is not the issue being discussed.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

Missiles at Guam

Volatility Up

Gold up

Crude Oil Today

RBNZ Tonight

U.S. Inflation on Friday

Awesome Ethereum

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of August 9th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

First, let’s start with the obvious.

Volatility Is Up

The VIX, volatility index spiked yesterday to it’s highest level this month and closed above 11 points. Not a historical high or anything, just a break from the lower volatitliy theme that’s been prevalent lately.

Stocks Are Not

The Dow Jones has been on a serious winning streak lately. The past 10 sessions have all ended in green taking us ever deeper into record high territory. Just the fact that it ended the day with a negative number yesterday is notable even if that number was just 0.15%.

The declines in Asia today are a lot less tame. With North Korea being closer to home, the Nikkei 225 in Japan is down 1.29% today and the China 50 is down 0.56% so far today, not bad for a country that doesn’t allow short selling.

Gold is up today as well. So far gaining more than half a percent today. A clear indication that at least somebody is getting nervous. But the main place that we can see the fear playing out is in the…

Currency Markets

Here, take a look…

Usually, the Australian Dollar has a strong correlation with the commodity markets since most of their exports are commodities. So seeing it this far down on a day when the commodities are up is more than a bit odd.

The Japanese Yen gaining more than a half a percent since the beginning of the day tells us that Asian investors are indeed nervous.

The kicker of course is the Swiss Franc. An upward movement of nearly 1% tells us that something is definitely wrong.

For those of you looking for extreme volatility, take a look at the AUDCHF, which is looking at its biggest single day movement since Trump’s election (white circle).

Crypto Doesn’t Care

…or maybe it does.

The total market cap of all cryptocurrencies is at a record high of $123 Billion this morning.

As we can see, the South Korean exchange bithumb is responsible for more than 17% of today’s volume, more than both of the next two exchanges combined.

The real winner today is Ethereum, which is up above $300 again making for a 10% gain in the last 24 hours and 50% since the start of the month.

Wishing you an amazing day ahead!!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.

The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Featured image from Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 133 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




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1 Comment

  1. Inverstor Clouseau

    August 9, 2017 at 12:28 pm

    That etherium entry call was on point

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Analysis

Crypto Update: Market Still in Deadlock

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The choppy, directionless period in the cryptocurrency segment continues, with no meaningful change in the technical setups of the major coins. While the broader trends are still clearly bearish and sellers remain in control of the market, we saw another minor bullish shift in the past 24 hours, with modest gains across the board.

Most of the top coins are trading in the range of the Monday session, which saw the spike triggered by the turmoil in Tether. Stellar is the apparent positive outlier of the past few days, while Dash, Litecoin, and Ethereum have been the weakest so far this week.

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

On a positive note, all of the majors remain above last week’s levels, and especially Bitcoin’s continued stability is encouraging for crypto-bulls here, even as our trend model paints a negative picture of the segment.


BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin avoided a test of the $6275 level despite moving below its recent very narrow trading range yesterday, with still no meaningful bearish or bullish momentum present in the coin’s market. BTC continues to trade below the $6500 level, and its volatility is very low, even after the move below the previously dominant broad triangle consolidation pattern.

Further resistance levels are still ahead near $6750 and $7000, while support levels below $6275 are found near $600, $5850 and between $5000 and $5100.

Altcoins Little Changed as Ethereum Still Glued to $200

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The weekend has been very quiet for altcoins so far, with even the recently active Ripple settling down near the $0.46 level. XRP is around the midpoint of Monday’ s range but the lack of follow-through after the breakout from the triangle consolidation pattern is a negative sign, and the coin remains on a short-term sell signal in our trend model. Strong resistance is still ahead at $0.51, $0.54, $0.57, while support is found near $0.42, $0.375, and $0.35.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum continues to hover around the $200 price level still being in bearish short- and long-term patterns and the relative weakness of the second largest coin remains a huge concern for the whole segment.

With no evidence of meaningful capital inflows to the market, the outlook is neutral at best, and traders and investors should wait for at least a short-term trend change before entering new positions. Strong support is found near $180, $170, and $160, while resistance is ahead near $235 and $260.

EOS/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EOS is also among the relatively weaker coins, and the coin is stuick in a broad Trading range around the $5.35 level since August. Volatility in the coin’s market has been progressively declining, but the vicinity of the bear market low suggests that the long-term downtrend is still intact, especially given the segment-wide trends.

A test of the lows is still more likely than a bullish break-out, with strong support found near $4.50 and key resistance ahead near $6 and $6.5.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 380 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

Cardano Price Analysis: ADA/USDT is Eyeing a Big Move Out of Current Technical Setup

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  • Positive update from IOHK audit of Icarus by Kudelski Security.
  • ADA/USDT is moving within a pennant pattern formation, subject to breakout.

Solid Icarus Audit reported by IOHK

IOHK recently announced in their forum that an audit was conducted by Kudelski Security, which is an independent and third-party security audit firm. The audit conducted demonstrated that the Icarus project implementation for Cardano looks all good and set to go, without any major problems. However, a few changes may need to be executed. IOHK developed the Icarus code as a reference implementation, for Cardano light portfolio.

The important of “independent audits, like this one was stressed by IOHK. Stating “they are critical for identifying security issues in the Icarus wallet, that may not have been identified by internal audits”.

Furthermore, IOHK has elucidated Icarus as an open source code base serving as a reference for the creation of safer and easier mobile wallets for Cardano. They said, “this guarantees our customers and clients the safest portfolio we can offer.”  Given the benefit of an external audit, the developers can resolve any problems identified during its product launch audit.

Positive Updates from Cardano Founder

Cardano’s founder, Charles Hoskinson, was recently commenting on Cardano’s future. He said “We have so many amazing things coming out.”

Mr Hoskinson further added that one of their scientists has flown in from Switzerland. They will be doing a video, which will be the first time they have ever talked about their sharding design that we have for Cardano. Further commenting on other updates, including videos about Shelley and the Rust project.

Technical Review – Daily Chart

ADA/USDT daily chart

ADA/USDT is moving within a triangular pattern or a pennant formation, as seen via the daily time frame. It is narrowing, moving closer to a breakout. Ranging ahead of another drop to the deep south. Although, fundamental developments coming out from the Cardano foundation, remain very much upbeat currently.

Over the past 8 days, the price has been grinding higher, after receiving support at the lower trend line of the above-mentioned pattern. In terms of resistance to the upside, this can be seen at 0.08310000. The upper tracking trend line. Further north, a supply zone is running from 0.09000000-0.09500000. ADA/USDT  last traded here on 23rd September. Finally, support is tracking at 0.071800000, lower part of the pennant, also within a demand area. Another strong buying territory is observed from 0.06500000-0.06000000.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 33 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Altcoins

Zcash (ZEC) Up 16% For Week as Sapling Hardfork Approaches

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Privacy coin Zcash (ZEC) gained 16% on its value from Monday through to Saturday as anticipation builds regarding the upcoming Sapling update.

The update, which will require a hardfork, aims to make improvements to shielded addresses, including reducing the time it takes to create them and the amount of memory used when doing so.

October proved to be a productive month for Zcash, with the coin recently being added to the Bitnovo platform, which will see ZEC become available for purchase in over 20,000 physical stores throughout Spain and Italy.

ZEC/USD

In the calendar week leading up to Saturday, Oct 20th, ZEC climbed just over 16% against the dollar, on its way from a valuation of $107.54 up to Saturday afternoon’s peak of $1124.96.

Trade volumes grew steadily in that time, without much violent fluctuation. Instead, overall trade movement rose quietly from $57 million to $83 million, suggesting a more ‘natural’ progression than many spikes of late.

Saturday’s peak marked a weekly high for ZEC, and stands higher than the valuation with which the coin opened the month. With that said, the monthly high of $145 which landed towards the end of September is still some way off.

Sapling Hardfork

The Zcash twitter team have been building up the anticipation all week in the lead up to the Sapling update, and have earmarked October 28th for the initiation date – as per the Saturday’s tweet:

“Activation block 419200 will be mined October 28, 2018 18:21 UTC-05:00 assuming 150 seconds/block.”

The update is expected to improve the ZEC blockchain’s handling of shielded addresses. According to a recent blog post:

“Sapling is a network upgrade that introduces significant efficiency improvements for shielded transactions that will pave the way for broad mobile, exchange and vendor adoption of Zcash shielded addresses.”

More details on the update can be read here.

Zcash Gets Bitnovo Integration

The other big piece of news to come out of the Zcash camp this week is the Bitnovo integration. Bitnovo facilitates in the buying and selling of prepaid cryptocurrency vouchers, which can be filled with a choice of various currencies. According to this week’s tweet:

“You can now purchase $ZEC #Zcash at over 20.000 stores in Spain and Italy with @bitnovo with full privacy and straight to your favorite wallet!”

The firm also deal in refillable cryptocurrency credit cards which users can use in physical stores, while offering up crypto ATM’s to store owners and businesses.

How much the Bitnovo deal will boost Zcash’s numbers remains to be seen, but having the ZEC ticker plastered across products in mainstream stores is sure to increase its recognition.

Besides that, Zcash remains one of the as of yet unlisted coins among the five which Coinbase singled out earlier this year. Basic Attention Token recently pumped on the Coinbase anticipation, and ZEC’s turn may also be coming before long.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 81 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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