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Analysis

Falling Crypto Markets Signal Buying Opportunity

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After the spectacular performance of crypto prices in April, any person with a dose of common sense would have expected a big pull back this month.  By big pull back we are taking a page from the playbook of technical analysis so a 50% retrenchment would not be unusual.

Until just recently, May was shaping up as a calm consolidation of prices.  With the exception of Ethereum, most of the major market caps pulled back around 10-12% in relatively calm trading.  Crypto skeptics will point out how bitcoin and others have underperformed stock indices like the Nasdaq Composite that is heading for a positive return of over 4%. But there there are more important signs taking place.

This week calm has turned into a sizable selling wave with bitcoin, bitcoin cash and Ethereum falling 11%, 23% and 24% respectively.  So suddenly, what’s causing this to happen?

According to a headline in CCN:

The recent correction of the cryptocurrency market and the short-term decline in the price of bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major cryptocurrencies and tokens can be mainly attributed to three major factors: Bitfinex taxation policy, scandal of South Korea’s two largest cryptocurrency exchanges UPbit and Bithumb, and the initial sell-off of the Mt. Gox trustee’s bitcoin funds.

Accepting each of these factors in the face of the dramatic price declines should warm the hearts of investors.  Here is why it is a time for joy starting with the Bitfinex situation.

Bitfinex is the biggest bitcoin-to-USD exchange. Headquartered in the crypto tax haven of BVI, Bitfinex has requested personal information about it customers such as tax ID and social security numbers.  BVI is the home not only of Bitfinex but the chosen domicile of many ICOs.

The obvious source of this change in reporting policy can be drawn to U.S. pressure on BVI and the effect is clear.  Those investors who chose to resist the Bitfinex request sold their crypto.

We won’t go into all of the details of UPbit and Bithumb only to point out that this created a selling panic similar to Bitfinex.  Investors sell their crypto for good and obvious reasons but the reasons have little to do with the role of blockchain technology in the global economy.  In other words, when investment decisions are driven by fear, that spells opportunity nearly every time.

How Much Is the Downside?

Each of the factors mentioned is likely to be forgotten before any of us can imagine. Disaffected investors will simply find other exchanges to transact their business. This is not to condone those who choose to hide their identity.  It is simply a fact that there will will always be a location somewhere in the world that has loose tax reporting policies.

Knowing this means we need not fall into panic mode but actually welcome the crypto price correction and get ready to add to our portfolio.  The logical question that comes up is which name will produce the highest upside. The answer is that there is 30%-50% upside on average so choose your favorite flavor.

One thing worth remembering:  big cap names like bitcoin and Ethereun underperformed most altcoins during April, but are now showing the better downside relative performance.

So, in the next up leg, more risk orientated crypto investors will most likely get more action from names like EOS and Zcash to mention just two of many options. The market is displaying signs of rational analysis of risk and that is the sign of a maturing market.  In the long term scheme this is great news.

So answering the question, how much downside remains, is always an impossible task and can be a distraction.  Prices are back in a value range and that is the important conclusion.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 115 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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1 Comment

  1. simonjr75

    May 26, 2018 at 1:42 pm

    James,

    I mean, your post reads well, but saying “any person with a dose of common sense would have expected a big pull back this month” is pretty ridiculous. Especially when you have posted several times in May and have never suggested this before. In fact once in May you said that “a surprise on the upside isn’t ridiculous”. We can google.

    I don’t think we want clairvoyants here – but don’t purport to be one in hindsight as your posts suggest otherwise (i wont quote all your posts).

    No one expects expect faultless experts/commentators – humility and recognition of ongoing-learning in this new marketplace is fine by me.

    Sorry for being a bit harsh, but I expect a bit better out of this paid service, especially if in fact this pull back was a “common sense expectation”.

    best

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Altcoins

IOTA Price Analysis: Bulls on the Loose as IOTA Foundation Announces New Collaboration with Nova to Fund Start-ups

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  • The IOTA Foundation has entered into a partnership with Nova to provide funded support for start-ups.
  • IOT/USD is currently enjoying a decent push north, following a breakout of a bullish pennant pattern structure.

IOT/USD: Recent Price Behaviour

IOT/USD has been on a decent run of gains over the five sessions, having jumped around 18% at the time of writing. The price has been on a path to the north since 7th February, after hitting a low for 2019 around $0.2400. A chunky amount of buying pressure was observed down at these depressed levels.

The bulls enjoyed an initial jump between 7-8th February, gaining around 18% on the fast two-day rally. IOT/USD then consolidated trading within a range-bound nature to then have formed a bullish pennant pattern formation. On 17th February, an explosive amount of upside came into play following this technical breakout.

IOTA Announces New Collaboration with Nova

The IOTA Foundation has announced a new partnership with Nova, a start-up incubator, according to an official press release from the organization. As part of the collaboration, its goal is to begin funding start-ups employing the platform of IOTA. The program will be called IOTA Cofoundery on Nova’s website; it will be focusing on early stages of development and seed funding.

Start-ups will be able to leverage through the program a mentoring and tech start-up service to consist of over 20 consultants that specialize in technology. There will be much nurturing and guidance as part of this offering. To-date Nova has already co-founded over 80 technology start-ups, with over half of those still being active after three years. It is further noted within the official release that the three-year start-up survival rate is 10%.

Nova will invest in ideas that can prove user problem-fit. IOTA via their grant program will match the investment. It will provide a comforting amount of support and the foundations for viable businesses to develop within the ecosystem of IOTA.

The program will allow entrepreneurial tech start-ups to build new innovative business models by leveraging IOTA technology. Nova has noted that this new offering is now already open for applications and can apply directly on the Nova website.

Technical Review – IOT/USD

IOT/USD daily chart.

Given the noted move north from a bullish pennant pattern structure, the doors to further upside potential have opened. Near-term supply is observed heading into the $0.3400 territory, IOT/USD last traded here in January and dealt a rejection blow. Should the bulls manage to maintain current upside momentum and break above this zone, eyes will then be on the 2019 high area. At the start of the year, the price managed to hit $0.4088 on 2nd January.

In terms of support, this should be noted back down at the broken pennant pattern. A retest just on top could be seen which currently tracks at around $0.2750-40. Failure of this holding could then see the February gains wholly reversed.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 124 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Altcoins

Tron Price Analysis: TRX/USD Bulls Hunting for a Potential Charge Back Above Broken Critical Trend Line

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  • Tron bulls continue to push the price north maintaining a firmer path of recovery.
  • TRX/USD has gained a significant 10% over the past four sessions, moving to its highest level in five days.

TRX/USD: Recent Price Behavior

The TRX/USD bulls have been enjoying some upside relief over the past few sessions now, picking up much pace in the session on Monday. The price managed to move to its highest level  in over seven sessions. Over the past four days, Tron has gained just shy of 10% as the price looks set for recovery following a breach last week of critical support.

An ascending trend line initially supported TRX/USD to the upside, providing exceptional comfort in its move north. The running support had been in play since the back-end of December 2018; however, after a decent run, the bears managed to force a breach. Sellers were able to regain control after the move below, to then see four consecutive days of selling, dropping around 10% in total.

Between 14-15th February, TRX/USD managed to find its feet after what could have very much been a free-fall to the deep south. Daily support came into play around $0.023550, which has provided needed comfort on several occasions already this side of the year. The recovery has been in play since this decent bounce occurred.

Tron Crypto Card

TRON recently detailed more information about its upcoming crypto card. The date of pre-order for the GRID X BitTorrent crypto card is going to be live on 18th February 18 2019 at 8 PM UTC. The GRID crypto card will be a prepaid card that can be topped with TRX in three amounts of 15,000, 50,000 and 100,000. Holders of the cards will be rewarded with BitTorrent (BTT) tokens as part of monthly BTT airdrops.

GRID will be one of two crypto cards built via the Tron network. The first, TronCard, was introduced as a tangible TRX wallet. Both TRX and TRC10 tokens can be stored on the TronCard similarly to a virtual wallet. These mentioned tokens are tokenized assets which would be leveraged via decentralized applications (dApps) via the Tron Network. A QR code feature can also be scanned by users for access to the public key. A physical card will then be able to integrate with the virtual wallet.

Technical Review – TRX/USD

TRX/USD daily chart.

The major challenge for the bulls as detailed above is seen underneath the breached ascending trend line; this is tracking at around $0.027500. Should the bulls manage to break back above this prior acting support, then expect a strong wave of buying pressure to come into play. Further to the north, eyes will be on the $0.03000 area. TRX/USD has not comfortably traded above this price region since August 2018. Once broken down, there isn’t too much in the way of a return back up to $0.04000 territory.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 124 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Ethereum Leads Second Phase of Rally

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The major cryptocurrencies are all significantly higher today amid the US market holiday, with most of the top digital currencies also hitting their highest levels in a month. Today’s leaders also took out the highs set during the Litecoin-led spike 10 days ago, and the new swing highs mean that the counter-trend move continues. The negative long-term forces a

Our trend model is still on short-term buy signals in most cases, with the relatively weak Ripple still being the most important exception, but for now, the bearish long-term picture is unchanged, and traders should still use strict risk management strategies, as, despite the rally, bear market rules still apply. That said, investors could hold on to their smaller speculative positions, since the short-term break-out patterns in the segment remain intact, despite the still dominant negative long-term forces.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum built upon its recent short-term relative strength, surging past the $120 and $130 resistance levels, outperforming its closest peers and leading the way higher for the whole segment. With the new swing high, a new short-term uptrend is established, and our trend model remains on a short-term buy signal, but the long-term trend remains bearish.

The long-term outlook is still negative for ETH, but the coin could test the $160 resistance level, which marked the top of the previous counter-trend move in the coming days. The coin is currently trading near the $145 resistance level, and although it’s slightly overbought from a short-term perspective, the next resistance level could be reached in the coming days.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While Bitcoin has been slightly lagging behind Ethereum during the current rally, it not just recaptured the $3600 support/resistance level, but also managed to rally up to the next key zone near $3850. BTC remains on a short-term buy signal in our trend model despite its relative weakness, but from a long-term perspective, it’s still in a clearly bearish setup.

With that in mind, investors should still expect a move towards the $3250 and $3000 support levels following the current counter-trend move, but traders could still hold smaller, speculative positions in the coin. Further strong resistance is ahead between $4000 and $4050, while below $3600, support is found just above $3450.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple continues to be relatively weak compared to the broader market, and although it topped the $0.32 level amid today’s broad rally, it’s still only neutral in our trend model even from a short-term perspective. Also, the long-term setup is still hostile for bulls, and the test of the $0.28 and $0.26 levels still seems likely in the coming weeks, with strong resistance levels also ahead neat $0.3550, and $$0.3750.

Litecoin Hits Marginal New High as EOS Soars

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

LTC haven’t been able to retain its leadership during today’s move, and although it scored a new marginal swing high, ending the short-term correction, the momentum of the current upswing is not convincing. Should LTC form a failed break-out pattern, our trend model will switch to neutral, but for now, the currency remains on a buy signal.

From a long-term perspective, Litecoin is still clearly in a bearish trend, so traders and investors should only consider short-term positions, but for now the break-out remains intact. The next level of resistance is ahead near $51, while is now found near $44, $38, and $34.50.

EOS/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EOS was also among the relatively stronger coins during the recent week, and after a failed move, today it surged to a significant new swing high, hitting the $3.50 resistance in the process. Our trend model remained on a short-term buy signal, during the recent consolidation, and although traders could take some chips off the table near the $3.50 level, the short-term trend is now bullish.

That said, the bearish long-term forces are still dominant in the market of EOS, and although the coin might test the $4.50-$5 zone, odds still the retest of the bear market low near $1.55 in the coming months. That said, traders could still to their short-term positions, following strict risk management rules, with support now found near $3, $2,80, and $2.55.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 466 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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