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Analysis

Ethereum’s run is not over yet

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Ethereum

Ethereum has been on a tear for several days now.  As regular readers know, I had a target of $60-62.  That target was reached a few days earlier than I expected, and I fully intended to focus my attention elsewhere after exiting at $60.  But the advance has not stopped yet. Pricetime is giving every indication that it will push through the 5th arc:

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Pushing through the 5Th arc is obviously a signal that the run is not over.  There are a couple of possibilities. One of them is that the run will push toward the top of the 5th square.  So, lets take another look at the setup above to see where the top of the 5th square is:

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As you can see, the 4th square tops out at ~ $75, and the 5th square tops out at ~ $105.  Interestingly, note that there is an energy date (pink vertical line) almost exactly at the end of the 5th square in time.  My guess is that that date ~ May 4th, will mark a top.  But where?  $75, or $100?

There is another way to look at this.  Perhaps my setup is simply too small.   Let’s re-size the setup to the next logical place, and see what that chart suggests/shows:

I think it goes without saying that I do not know for certain which of these setups is “best”, though my preference is to rely on the smaller setup. However, even this larger setup, in a truly remarkable and fractal way, shows resistance at the same place in pricetime, though here the arc being touched is a 3rd arc (which has been penetrated).

This setup shows the energy date of 5/4/17 at the end of the 3rd square in time – also a likely turning place in time. $75 does not jump out as a likely resistance point on this chart however.  Here, 4th arc is seen ~ $95, and 5th arc is seen ~ $128.  Note that $105 shows up here as the top of the 3rd square…

I expect I will look for a place to re-enter this market on the long side, as this coin could conceivably DOUBLE from here in just a few days. Time will tell….

Remember:  The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgment.  Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



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17 Comments

17 Comments

  1. jedadoo

    April 28, 2017 at 4:03 pm

    Your bitcoin urgent analysis 2 days ago caused me to move all my funds into ETH before the big rise. You made me and my family 5K USD in under 48 hours. A big thank you! If you’re ever traveling through Utah, I’ll be offended if you don’t let me take you to lunch.

    • Jim Fredrickson

      April 28, 2017 at 11:15 pm

      I’m happy to hear you did well. 🙂

  2. tadej

    April 28, 2017 at 4:08 pm

    Jim. I did not participate on this ETH run. Where do you recommend to enter the next run ?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      April 28, 2017 at 11:21 pm

      Many look bullish now. Monero, DASH, even ripple. I don’t think ETH is finished yet either.

  3. And

    April 28, 2017 at 4:44 pm

    So I will remain in ETH 🙂 Jim, last time you wrote that Ripple will rally hard in not-distant future. Do you think this is happening now and Ripple can test ATH in the following days? Thanks!

    • Jim Fredrickson

      April 28, 2017 at 11:17 pm

      Ripple is an enigma. Every time she has had an opportunity (geometrically speaking) to rally, she has refused to do that. Maybe this time is different. I’ll be watching it…

  4. D1DT

    April 28, 2017 at 7:52 pm

    Hi Jim, I’ve been following your articles for a couple of months now, and among all the information I have come across regarding trading and cryptocurrencies, your analyses have probably been the most accurate and fascinating I have found. I’ve also enjoyed some nice gains thanks to your recommendations, so just a big thank you! I hope you do consider publishing a document on your trading style eventually. Really appreaciate your work. 🙂 Diego

    • Jim Fredrickson

      April 29, 2017 at 2:26 am

      Thanks for the kind words. I’m glad I helped a bit. 🙂

  5. iamniks

    April 29, 2017 at 10:03 am

    Hey Jim, thanks for recommendations, especially the recently published Urgent Analysis + XRP almost doubled my investment. What is the best place to enter ETH now? It seems that it has already passed the 75$ mark.

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 1, 2017 at 12:02 am

      be careful with eth now. and end-of-setp is due very soon. a typical place for a reversal. tighten up your stops

  6. mshiros

    April 30, 2017 at 6:21 am

    Dear Jim, always a pleasure to see your recommendations. i had caught on to XRP before this rally, and stayed put even during the volatility and all round negative sentiment on it. recently bought into ether when i got some funds arranged. hoping to see such fantastic recos from your side. peace..

  7. excesstomcat1

    April 30, 2017 at 8:55 pm

    Hey Jim great article. What are your thoughts on ether long term? To my understanding, the coin is only an aspect of a larger technological revolution and I am wondering about your opinion on how the ethereum platform will effect things on a larger spectrum. Thanks.

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 1, 2017 at 12:03 am

      great idea for a future column …

  8. DChain

    April 30, 2017 at 9:12 pm

    Jim, I just subscribed! Great ETH article. Love are your articles! Do you also make follow ups to articles? I’m wondering now that Eth has reached the $75 does it validate the bull going to $105 or more?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 1, 2017 at 12:04 am

      I am bullish on eth, but wary right now for the sake of an ‘energy point due later today. might reverse. tighten up your stops just in case

      • DChain

        May 1, 2017 at 1:03 am

        What is an “energy point?”

        • Jim Fredrickson

          May 1, 2017 at 6:56 am

          think of it as a time to expect something to happen – like a full moon or a Fibonacci extension…

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Analysis

Cryptocurrency Analysis: Ripple Continues Rampage as Litecoin and Ethereum Enter Correction

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Ripple remained in the center of attention in the segment after breaking out to a new all-time high yesterday, and the coin almost doubled in value, climbing above the $0.80 level. The currency concluded a 6-month long consolidation pattern with the move after being the only major on a long-term buy signal in our trend model.

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XRP gave a short-term sell signal today, while turning neutral regarding the long-term setup. Investors now shouldn’t add to their positions, although further gains are still possible, and reducing holdings somewhat is a good idea here. Major support is still found at the prior high near $0.4250 and in the $0.30-$0.32 range.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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While Bitcoin stagnated, and Bitcoin Cash jumped, Ethereum, Litecoin, Dash, and IOTA has been drifting slightly lower, although the recent gains are still mostly intact, and the basic setup in the segment is unchanged.

Litecoin fell below the $300 level after yesterday’s consolidation, and the coin faced strong selling pressure in the latter half of the session. The currency remains extremely stretched regarding the long-term momentum indicators, and although the short-term uptrend is still intact, a deeper correction is likely in the coming weeks, with key support levels found at $125 and $100, and weaker levels at $260 and $170.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Dollar Falls, Gold Jumps after Yellen’s Final Move

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Wednesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2668 -0.02%
DAX 13125 -0.45%
WTI Crude Oil 56.65 -0.68%
GOLD 1258.00 1.35%
Bitcoin 16,100 -6.32%
EUR/USD 1.1842 0.73%

The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates as expected today, and although the central bank’s monetary statement was slightly more hawkish than expected, the market’s reaction didn’t reflect the much-anticipated move. The worse than expected Core CPI reading that underlined the low-inflation narrative weighed on the recently strong Greenback, while stocks were unchanged after decision and bonds gained ground as yields retreated.

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EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The major indices are hovering near their all-time highs with the DOW leading the way higher, hitting a new record for the second day in a row. While volatility Is expected to remain low as we approach the end of the year, market internals and valuation levels are still concerning from a long-term perspective, and stocks outside the US are also negatively diverging. The action in crude oil could be slightly more interesting as the commodity is starting to act in a slightly bearish manner after a grinding multi-month rally.

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WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Brexit process is still in the center of attention in Europe, although volatility took a nosedive on the old continent as well, and it’s unlikely that the Christmas period will be much different, given the predictable drop in volumes and trading activity. The date of the next election in the financially and politically troubled Italy has been set to March 4th next year, and the early date caused some turmoil in the countries assets, which dragged the Euro Stoxx 50 lower today, together with the DAX and the other major indices.

Cryptocurrencies

As the total market cap of the crypto-market crossed the incredible $500 billion mark, Ripple, NEO, and Ethereum made headlines with lofty gains in the face of the severely overbought readings elsewhere in the segment. While XRP and NEO are still not overbought from an investment perspective, Ethereum reached our final target for its break-out and triggered a long-term sell signal.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The previously surging IOTA continued its correction, Litecoin consolidated in a relatively narrow range, while Dash, ETC, and Monero scored marginal new highs before turning lower together with BTC. The most valuable coin that has lost some of its momentum “mojo” in recent days fell back below last week’s highs, and that could mark a failed break-out and a start of the deeper correction that seems more and more likely.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Wednesday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
11:30 UK Average Earnings 2.5% 2.5% 2.3%
11:30 UK Claimant Count Change 5,900 3,300 6,500
11:30 UK Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.2% 4.35
15:30 US Core CPI 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -5.1 mill -3.6 mill -5.6 mill
21:00 US Fed Rate Decision 1.5% 1.5% 1.25%
21:00 US FOMC Statement

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Volatility on the Rise Again, as Ripple and Ethereum Hit Targets

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Ripple has been the star of today’s session in the cryptocurrency segment, as the only major coin on a long-term buy signal in our trend model continued yesterday’s break-out, and surged to a new all-time high. The currency cleared the $0.425 level that marked the top in May, and after the more than 6-month long consolidation phase, it promptly neared the $0.50 level.

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While the short-term momentum indicators are now stretched, the coin is still in an encouraging long-term setup, although the best period to buy already passed. The coin could be dragged lower in the case of the expected broad correction in the segment, but we expect XRP to outperform in the coming period, with support levels found at the prior high and below that in the range between $0.30-$0.32.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Ethereum has been the other top coin on the rise, as the second largest digital currency surged past the final range projection target of the break-out two weeks ago at $685 in the aftermath of the launch of the BTC futures on Monday. The ETH token is now also on a sell signal on all time-frames, and we advise investors and investors to wait for the next major correction to establish new positions. Support levels are now found at $575, $500, $480, and $400.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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