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Analysis

Ethereum’s run is not over yet

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Ethereum

Ethereum has been on a tear for several days now.  As regular readers know, I had a target of $60-62.  That target was reached a few days earlier than I expected, and I fully intended to focus my attention elsewhere after exiting at $60.  But the advance has not stopped yet. Pricetime is giving every indication that it will push through the 5th arc:

Pushing through the 5Th arc is obviously a signal that the run is not over.  There are a couple of possibilities. One of them is that the run will push toward the top of the 5th square.  So, lets take another look at the setup above to see where the top of the 5th square is:

As you can see, the 4th square tops out at ~ $75, and the 5th square tops out at ~ $105.  Interestingly, note that there is an energy date (pink vertical line) almost exactly at the end of the 5th square in time.  My guess is that that date ~ May 4th, will mark a top.  But where?  $75, or $100?

There is another way to look at this.  Perhaps my setup is simply too small.   Let’s re-size the setup to the next logical place, and see what that chart suggests/shows:

I think it goes without saying that I do not know for certain which of these setups is “best”, though my preference is to rely on the smaller setup. However, even this larger setup, in a truly remarkable and fractal way, shows resistance at the same place in pricetime, though here the arc being touched is a 3rd arc (which has been penetrated).

This setup shows the energy date of 5/4/17 at the end of the 3rd square in time – also a likely turning place in time. $75 does not jump out as a likely resistance point on this chart however.  Here, 4th arc is seen ~ $95, and 5th arc is seen ~ $128.  Note that $105 shows up here as the top of the 3rd square…

I expect I will look for a place to re-enter this market on the long side, as this coin could conceivably DOUBLE from here in just a few days. Time will tell….

Remember:  The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgment.  Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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5 stars on average, based on 2 rated postsJim has an MBA from the University of Southern California. He has had a long career in both Corporate Finance and IT. Along the way he discovered that trading was a vehicle with great promise, but struggled for a long time without a mentor. After having been knocked down many times and having struggled to get back up, he had an epiphany and realized that geometry was a solution. He shares his experience here. If you do well as a result of suggestions made here, feel free to say thank you :) BTC: 1FUq3GB1Q8zz2JpuBr7YHzVBKnaWoxgmya Follow him on Twitter (@jimfred1276) or email him at jimfred1276 at gmail.




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17 Comments

17 Comments

  1. jedadoo

    April 28, 2017 at 4:03 pm

    Your bitcoin urgent analysis 2 days ago caused me to move all my funds into ETH before the big rise. You made me and my family 5K USD in under 48 hours. A big thank you! If you’re ever traveling through Utah, I’ll be offended if you don’t let me take you to lunch.

    • Jim Fredrickson

      April 28, 2017 at 11:15 pm

      I’m happy to hear you did well. 🙂

  2. tadej

    April 28, 2017 at 4:08 pm

    Jim. I did not participate on this ETH run. Where do you recommend to enter the next run ?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      April 28, 2017 at 11:21 pm

      Many look bullish now. Monero, DASH, even ripple. I don’t think ETH is finished yet either.

  3. And

    April 28, 2017 at 4:44 pm

    So I will remain in ETH 🙂 Jim, last time you wrote that Ripple will rally hard in not-distant future. Do you think this is happening now and Ripple can test ATH in the following days? Thanks!

    • Jim Fredrickson

      April 28, 2017 at 11:17 pm

      Ripple is an enigma. Every time she has had an opportunity (geometrically speaking) to rally, she has refused to do that. Maybe this time is different. I’ll be watching it…

  4. D1DT

    April 28, 2017 at 7:52 pm

    Hi Jim, I’ve been following your articles for a couple of months now, and among all the information I have come across regarding trading and cryptocurrencies, your analyses have probably been the most accurate and fascinating I have found. I’ve also enjoyed some nice gains thanks to your recommendations, so just a big thank you! I hope you do consider publishing a document on your trading style eventually. Really appreaciate your work. 🙂 Diego

    • Jim Fredrickson

      April 29, 2017 at 2:26 am

      Thanks for the kind words. I’m glad I helped a bit. 🙂

  5. iamniks

    April 29, 2017 at 10:03 am

    Hey Jim, thanks for recommendations, especially the recently published Urgent Analysis + XRP almost doubled my investment. What is the best place to enter ETH now? It seems that it has already passed the 75$ mark.

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 1, 2017 at 12:02 am

      be careful with eth now. and end-of-setp is due very soon. a typical place for a reversal. tighten up your stops

  6. mshiros

    April 30, 2017 at 6:21 am

    Dear Jim, always a pleasure to see your recommendations. i had caught on to XRP before this rally, and stayed put even during the volatility and all round negative sentiment on it. recently bought into ether when i got some funds arranged. hoping to see such fantastic recos from your side. peace..

  7. excesstomcat1

    April 30, 2017 at 8:55 pm

    Hey Jim great article. What are your thoughts on ether long term? To my understanding, the coin is only an aspect of a larger technological revolution and I am wondering about your opinion on how the ethereum platform will effect things on a larger spectrum. Thanks.

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 1, 2017 at 12:03 am

      great idea for a future column …

  8. DChain

    April 30, 2017 at 9:12 pm

    Jim, I just subscribed! Great ETH article. Love are your articles! Do you also make follow ups to articles? I’m wondering now that Eth has reached the $75 does it validate the bull going to $105 or more?

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 1, 2017 at 12:04 am

      I am bullish on eth, but wary right now for the sake of an ‘energy point due later today. might reverse. tighten up your stops just in case

      • DChain

        May 1, 2017 at 1:03 am

        What is an “energy point?”

        • Jim Fredrickson

          May 1, 2017 at 6:56 am

          think of it as a time to expect something to happen – like a full moon or a Fibonacci extension…

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Altcoins

TenX: Look Out The Brits Are Coming

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We have written about TenX in the past with admiration for its business model. We weren’t the only admirers.  Last year TenX raised $80 million, ranking it as the ninth largest ICO of 2017. But now, there is a new threat, UK based Wirex.  These Brits are less well financed but much further along with a real product ready to launch in the US. Could this could put the kibosh on tiny TenX? Let’s take a look.  

You Gotta Love The Concept: Mass Acceptance

Both TenX and Wirex share a similar business model. They make cryptocurrencies spendable anytime, anywhere in the world. Start with their wallet and add a supported cryptocurrency. Then when the need to fill the gas tank or pay for dinner arises, pull out your TenX or Wirex card bearing the VISA or MasterCard logo and complete the transaction.

During the transaction, your crypto is instantly converted to fiat in one seamless step.  The cost of this service to the cardholder is unclear but we presume it will have to compete with exchange fees from entities like Coinbase or Binance.

True, there are certain limitations. So far the Wirex wallet accepts only Bitcoin.  TenX boasts of accepting Bitcoin, Ether and Litecoin. That covers about 90% of crypto assets but still leaves out a long list of altcoins and the bazillion of recently minted stablecoins.

Other marketing highlights at the TenX website include the opportunity to “Spend at over 42 million points of acceptance online and offline, in almost 200 countries – perfect for the world traveller.”  Unfortunately the website also notes, “We’re working hard to bring the TenX Card to you as soon as possible. Join the waitlist in the app to be notified when it’s out.”

Neither approach is perfect.  For crypto purists the only solution is for Bitcoin and other altcoins to be accepted directly as a medium of exchange. Maybe that dream will take place by 2028 or sooner but be careful about holding your breath.

Another flaw is that both systems appear dependent on either the VISA or MasterCard payment rail (and this has been a big problem). Even under ideal circumstances these transactions fail to reach the dream of being both frictionless and free.  However from the standpoint of mass acceptance, the merchant is already absorbing these costs so it should not impede acceptance of either TenX or Wirex.

Wirex Comes To America

Now Bitcoin.com reports that Wirex, which just registered in Canada, has its sights on a US launch. There are two aspects about this that are worth noting.  First, Wirex is using transfer technology from i2c. Not being a technology mavin, it is unclear what this exactly means to things like speed and costs but it can’t hurt Wirex’s invasion of America.

So why should investors in TenX be concerned?  After all, things haven’t exactly been all that shining.  At one point this year, TenX ranked in the 50 most highly valued cryptos.  It pretty much carved out a giant sized niche.

And then back in January a great many of Visa’s cryptocurrency debit cards ceased working as the company ended its relationship with a debit card provider called WaveCrest. Affected cards were those issued by WaveCrest, including products from CryptoPay, Bitwala, TenX, Wirex and others. Since then, the price of TenX has dropped from $5 to about $0.55.

This is where the connection between Wirex and i2c could be the answer to the problem. According to Bitcoin.com “The relationship with i2c will enable Wirex to be the first crypto-friendly payment platform to offer this innovative service in the US.”

A Few Metrics on Wirex

If any published data can be believed, it would appear the Wirex already is a small force in crypto to fiat payments.  According to its website, Wirex has over 900,000 customers in 130 countries having participated in over $1 billion in transactions.  That maybe be peanuts compared to the total value of all transactions but it ain’t exactly chump change either.

So while loyal fans of TenX patiently wait for their plastic and investors sit on their $0.55 crypto investment, Wirex appears ready to steal the thunder.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 114 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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Analysis

FedEx Goes Looking for New Lows

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By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboMarkets

At a recent Federal Reserve meeting, the market was made clear that interest rates were going to rise, which means that the burden on business in the form of interest on borrowed funds will increase. The ‘cheap’ money has run out, and now overvalued companies will be heading to their real quotes. If you look at the market, the corrections are already beginning, and there is a decline in each sector. Under these conditions, stocks will be forming ranges, although in most cases they are already here. If the price is at the lower boundary, then we should expect an even greater decline, as new support levels will be formed lower.

The ‘weak link’ under these conditions will be the companies that have shown a significant decrease in profits in the current quarter relative to the previous quarter and to similar periods of the previous year.

Tips for trading here should be sought in technical analysis, since the fundamental one will not show negative trends in Q3, as reports will be provided for the previous period, and they will be compared with similar periods of last year, which in most cases will show a positive trend.

In this situation, it is possible to consider trading for lowering overpriced companies, but the trader needs to be aware of the risk they will be taken taking, as due to the gaps at the opening, losses can be fatal.

FedEx, a leading mailing operator, is among such companies that are set to decline in the near future. Quarterly reports show an increase in profits compared to the same period last year. With this in mind, it would seem, there is no reason for concern, as the fall in profits in Q3 this year was also observed last year.

FedEx

Meanwhile, the short float is as low as 2.01%. The debt to capital ratio is less than 1, which also indicates the company is good to invest into.

On Oct 18, FedEx announced the acquisition of Manton Air-Sea Pty Ltd, a leading logistics service provider based in Australia. This will allow FedEx to increase its presence in the Australian market. The transaction is scheduled to be completed by the end of this year.

Analyzing other financial indicators, the negative details can only be found in the discrepancy between the Q3 earnings per share predicted values, since the EPS expectations were at $3.80, and in fact it turned out to be just $3.46, which resulted in the company ending its trading session with a 1.7% decline.

Without going into details, the company’s profit is growing, dividends are paid, and there is no reason to worry, especially when the index is being bought heavily during such falls. Let’s get back to the reports however, and we’ll see the profit in Q3 decreased by 42% compared to the previous quarter, although last year it was only by 16%.

In July, Amazon announced its new project, Delivery Service Partners (DSP), as mentioned earlier in one of our analytic reports. This led to the largest international postal operator’s decline. The project by Amazon enables starting your own shipping business under Amazon brand. This project is already working and the goods, despite the problems that arise, are being shipped. This means that FedEx and UPS are guaranteed to lose some of their income. In the long term, the development of DSP will create an even more serious competition against postal operators.

Amazon’s policy led to FedEx shares losing around 16%, after which the price tried to recover, but nothing came out of it, and now it’s trading around the year’s lows. Another negative fact is that the price went below the 200-day SMA, which last occurred in 2015. Last time, after the SMA breakout, the price fell by 36% from its highs. The last fall was accompanied with the largest trading volume over the last 2 years, which increases the likelihood of further price fall.

The nearest support is around $200. Further decline may be news-driven and come later, as it often happens. A short-term price increase to the resistance at $240 USD is possible, but after that, a rebound and a more serious price fall to $200 may follow. With larger volumes or a consolidation range, a reversal may occur.

To sum up

According to the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes, rate hikes are going to happen both this year and next. This will increase the cost of borrowed funds, which will lead to consolidation of the stock market and a possible sharp decline when approaching the highs. Some investors will close their positions on highs, trying to lock in as much profit as possible, after which they can move to less risky instruments such as bonds, whose yields will only increase with rate hikes.

Yet another crisis coming is often a surprise for investors, because usually everything starts with a small correction, which then rapidly develops into a market collapse and leads to a massive fall in stock prices. For this reason, investing in companies at current prices is not a good idea.

In this situation, it is best to look for small and unknown companies to buy, or to focus on those that are just starting their IPO’s.

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboMarkets shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 15 rated postsHaving majored in both Social Psychology and Economics, I went on to continue my education in post graduate. Later I worked as a team lead of a tech and fundamental analysis lab in the Applied System Analysis Research Institute. This helped me to acquire all necessary skills and experience to become a successful trader and analyst, as well as a portfolio manager in an investment company. I'm a pro in the financial field and the author of articles for various international media. I also hold the position of Chief Analyst at RoboMarkets.




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Analysis

Pre-Market Analysis and Chartbook: Stocks Plunge as Chinese Rally Fades

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Tuesday Market Snapshot

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2,713 -1.59%
DAX 30 11,282 -2.06%
WTI Crude Oil 67.72 -2.11%
GOLD 1,241 1.38%
Bitcoin 6,393 -0.20%
EUR/USD 1.1469 0.05%

The major global stock indices are all significantly lower today just after the US open, with several European benchmarks hitting new multi-month and multi-year lows after the recent bounce. Chinese stocks turned south after the strongest two-day rally in years, and although the local markets remain above their recent bear market lows, the shift weighed heavily on sentiment across the globe, with the Nikkei also getting below last week’s minimum level.

DAX 30 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

In Europe, the DAX is the weakest major index again, and German stocks confirmed the long-term breakdown that we have been following in recent weeks. Today, chemical giant Bayer is pushing the benchmark lower, but the weakness in auto-makers also continues to drag equities lower together with the struggling financial sector.

Spreads between Italian and core Eurozone government bonds are still wide, as the budget debate continues to pressure Italian assets, and despite the relative stability of the Euro, European equities are in deep trouble.

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Euro is hanging on a thread above its monthly lows against the US Dollar, while the broader Dollar index hit a marginal new 2-month high today. All eyes are on the European Central Bank and Italy this week, and with the US midterms approaching, things can get wild in currencies in the coming days, especially given the rising volatility in equities, and the general risk-off shift.

While the EUR/USD pair is trading below the 1.15 level, the Dollar failed to show momentum against the common currency with buyers consistently stepping in near 1.1440. That said, the broader downtrend is clearly intact, and a test of the support zone near 1.13 still seems like the most likely scenario in the coming weeks.

S&P 500 Hits New Correction Lows as VIX Eyes 25 Level

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

US index futures had an ugly overnight session before the pre-market earnings dump, with the Asian selloff dragging the major indices lower. While the Nasdaq is holding up above its recent lows, the Dow and the S&P 500 plunged well below their multi-month lows, and the small-cap Russell 2000 also opened deep in the red, below its correction low as well.

Short-term technicals continue to scream sell in the US, with the weak bounce clearing the bulk of the oversold momentum readings with regards to the key benchmarks, and with market internals still being very negative. For now, we would still not buy the dip here, especially as we see no major positive divergences in global markets either.

VIX (US Volatility Index), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Looking at the Volatility Index (VIX), the regime change that we were speculation on at the start of the correction seems to be confirmed, with the VIX getting back very easily above the line-in-the-sand 20 level. The index neared the 25 level pre-market, and although the panicky 30 level is still well above the current zone, a concerted move below the lows could spark a renewed surge in the VIX as early as today.

This leaves a protracted correction as the best-case scenario for US stocks, but as usual with bearish trends, violent counter-trend rallies are expected along the way, punishing late shorts and resetting the negative sentiment.

ChartBook

Major Stock Indices

Nasdaq 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dow 30 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

FTSE 100 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EuroStoxx50 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Nikkei 225 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Shanghai Composite Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EEM (Emerging Markets ETF), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Forex

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

GBP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EUR/GBP, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

AUD/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Gold Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Copper Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 381 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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