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Ethereum fell, though not quite as expected

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Ethereum

Regular readers will recall that I suggested yesterday morning (China time) that it was time to pull the stops in very tight on ETH.  Those following me on twitter received a pic of a rising wedge chart pattern before and after it broke, with the implicit suggestion that the market was showing signs of an impending breakdown. That breakdown came, but not until after the chart registered a double top which can only be described as nerve-wracking to the extreme.

Still, I suppose I should have foreseen the possibility of a brain-bleeding double top, as that is what it took to get pricetime to touch the 3rd arc on this setup:

Looking closer at the breakdown, we again get a confusing picture, because there are two perfectly reasonable bear setups from the first top.  The smaller of the two shows that the fall went EXACTLY to the 5th arc.  Suggesting the worst of the selling is over:

But I am bothered by the fact that there is an energy point on this chart several hours from now.  Intuitively, it feels like it will be a lower low?  So let’s look at the slightly larger bear setup from the first top:

This setup suggests a low ~ $68-$69, possibly this afternoon (remember, I am writing in China time, GMT +8).

Bitcoin

Bitcoin rallied yesterday, so I thought it was time to look at that chart.  The longer-term setup on the daily chart shows an energy point in 10 days time.  This is just after the end of the setup in time. The top of the square is resistance, at $1500.

Let’s look at a shorter-term setup for confirmation:

Here on this setup we again see resistance at $1500 in the form of a 5th arc, on the day of the energy point.  There is plenty of time however for XBT to rally past $1500 before then.  If that should happen, the top of the setup is likely to stop the advance at ~ $1700.

 

Remember:  The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgment.  Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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5 stars on average, based on 2 rated postsJim has an MBA from the University of Southern California. He has had a long career in both Corporate Finance and IT. Along the way he discovered that trading was a vehicle with great promise, but struggled for a long time without a mentor. After having been knocked down many times and having struggled to get back up, he had an epiphany and realized that geometry was a solution. He shares his experience here. If you do well as a result of suggestions made here, feel free to say thank you :) BTC: 1FUq3GB1Q8zz2JpuBr7YHzVBKnaWoxgmya Follow him on Twitter (@jimfred1276) or email him at jimfred1276 at gmail.




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4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. Ershad

    May 4, 2017 at 1:21 am

    Hi Jim,

    Just a quick question, do you think that XRP would reach all time highs according to XRP/BTC? Or would you recommend selling at $0.07 USDT?

    Kind regards,
    Ershad

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 4, 2017 at 9:05 am

      I am buying xrp today… relative to xbt is hard to say, but relative to usd seems a likely winner

      • Ershad

        May 4, 2017 at 9:50 am

        Hi Jim,

        Thanks for your reply, I wanted to ask would you recommend selling XRP at $.07 or holding for a little longer?

        Kind regards
        Ershad

        • Jim Fredrickson

          May 4, 2017 at 12:32 pm

          I can’t answer that question because i don’t know your situation. I am buying it today, so as you can guess I think .07 is cheap. My guess is that 2 weeks from now it will be at least double that.

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Altcoins

Bitcoin Cash Price Analysis: BCH/USD Rejected Again by Long-running Descending Trend Line

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  • BCH/USD bulls attempted moving above vital descending trend line capping upside; however , they were dealt another rejection.
  • A recent study suggest Bitcoin Cash is not using anywhere near its full block capacity.

 Bitcoin Cash Bulls Fails to Break Big Resistance

Bitcoin Cash price on Monday is trading in minor negative territory, nursing losses of just some 0.5%, at the time of writing. Over the past three sessions, BCH/USD has traded very closely to a descending trend line. The price continues to face rejection when attempting to break above the aforementioned line; however, the bulls do not have enough momentum. This trend line has been in play since 6th November, right at the start of the pick up in downside, at the back end of 2018.

While BCH/USD was confined below the above-mentioned resistance, it fell a chunky 88%. It had dropped from around $650, down to a low of $73.50 on 15th December. Given the current failure to press ahead and break above, the price once again could be knocked back south.

Bitcoin Cash Block Capacity Failure of Use

There is now 500 days’ worth of data to analyze the capacity of Bitcoin Cash when looking at its block size. A recent study conducted by LongHash suggests that the Bitcoin (BTC) blocks on average have been 30x larger than Bitcoin Cash.

Looking at the figures, in terms of Bitcoin Cash, the block size on average has reported to have been just 171 KB since the fork back in August 2017. In real terms, this represents just 2.1% of the total block capacity for BCH. On just one day there the BCH blocks have been more than half full. Back on 15th January 2018, the blocks were able to average 59% of their total capacity, as covered by the recent study.

The study from LongHash further goes on to say, that some will believe that the BCH blocks not nearing their full capacity is a potential positive sign. However, this can also be seen as a lack of interest in Bitcoin Cash, which is somewhat concerning. Most recently, over the past 30 days, the blocks of BCH have averaged just a small 34 KB, which is just around 3.7% of the roughly 923 KB blocks of Bitcoin over that same period.

Technical Review – BCH/USD

BCH/USD daily chart.

Keeping in mind the earlier described rejections for the price, eyes should now note the coming key areas support. Firstly, just ahead of the big psychological $100 mark, at $105, which is an important daily support. The price had last traded around this level between 6-10th December, as it sought comfort at the time, before resuming its move south. If this fails to hold, then a retest of the December low and 2018 low at $73.50 would likely be on the cards.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 111 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Altcoins

Cardano Price Analysis: ADA Must Hold This Key Support or Be Forced to Give Up $0.04 & $0.03

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  • ADA/USDT price action has formed a head and shoulders pattern, subject to a possible neckline break.
  • Chunky supply is heavily capping upside for ADA/BTC, tracking from 0.00001400-0.00001200.

ADA/USDT in the very latter stages of trading on Sunday was seen nursing chunky losses of over 5%. The price has continued to trade within a choppy nature, a failure to see commitment from either bear or bull camp for ten sessions now. Market participants have been treading extremely cautiously since the steep fall on 10th January. ADA/USDT had plummeted a whopping 22% within the mentioned session. It was the biggest drop in a single session observed since 16th January 2018, where the price tanked around 44%.

Head and Shoulders Formation

ADA/USDT daily chart.

Looking via the daily chart view, price action has been constructing a head and shoulders pattern formation. The left shoulder and head are seen with the right shoulder close to completion. Currently the price on the latest candlestick heading south is edging closer to the neckline, which will determine whether the textbook pattern will materialize. In terms of the vital support (neckline), this is tracking at $0.047000. Should the bears sustain the downside momentum observed in this session, then a breakout could be seen in the next day or two.

Key Support Areas

A breach of the above-detailed neckline will likely open another wave of hard selling pressure. On this potential note, key areas of comfort should be known at $0.039000 (daily support), $0.035500 (27-28th December 2018 low area). Going by the distance between the head and neckline of the pattern, a drop down to the December 2018 lows may be seen. As a result, this would see a retest of the low area from 7th-15th December, $0.027600. Strong buyers came into play here in mid-December to send ADA/USDT back into a decent upside trend.

ADA/BTC Technical Review

ADA/BTC daily chart.

Upside is capped as the price trades within a very stubborn area of supply. There is a chunky amount of resistance that tracks from 0.00001400 down to 0.00001200. The price has not traded comfortably above this region since the start of September 2018. Furthermore, given the continued rejection and lack of upside momentum, ADA/BTC could be seen back down to the demand area below, 0.00001000. Further south, eyes would be on December low area, 0.00000800.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 111 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Dash Price Analysis: DASH/USDT Downside Risks Linger Despite Trust Wallet Support Announcement

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  • DASH/USDT price action is moving within a narrowing range formation, subject to further downside risks.
  • Trust Wallet, Binance-owed crypto wallet provider, announces support of DASH.

Price Behavior

DASH/USDT has been trading within a $6 range for the tenth session in a row, at the time of writing. The upper part of this range should be noted at $73. Looking to the downside, the lower support of the formation is seen at $67. The price, like many of its peers within the cryptocurrency market, is stuck within a narrowing range block. They are all currently demonstrating strong downside vulnerabilities, given the current behaviour.

This trading range came after a steep fall in the market last Thursday, 10th January. Double-digit losses were seen across the board after moving within a prior narrowing range formation. DASH/USDT had a strong run from 15th – 24th December, gaining as much as 81% within that time frame. Following the high print towards the latter part of that period, at $102.50, price cooling was seen and then begun to trade sideways.

Between 26th December 2018 – 9th January 2019, DASH/USDT was moving between a narrow $86 at the high and $73 at the low. This led to the explosive breakout to the downside, where the price dropped around 20% on 10th January.

Trust Wallet Supports Dash (DASH)

Trust Wallet, a mobile crypto wallet owned by Binance, announced earlier this week that it has added support for Dash. The announcement followed after just a week ago, when the wallet provider revealed the support of Litecoin (LTC), Bitcoin (BTC), and Bitcoin Cash (BCH). In addition, the app also supports Ethereum (ETH), Ethereum Classic (ETC), Tron (TRX) and others.

The team at Trust Wallet, upon their DASH support update, also left users somewhat excited about further announcements lined up. They stated, “Going forward, we will monitor the performance and stability of our Dash release very closely, and if everything works well, hopefully, we can surprise you with more new coins in the coming weeks!”

Technical Review – DASH/USDT

DASH/USDT daily chart.

A breakout of the key mentioned levels that make up either side of the range, $72 and $67, will likely determine the next committed trend. Firstly, in terms of the next major area of support south, eyes will be on the December low area, $58. To the north, drop supply remains heading into and just above the psychological $100 mark.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 111 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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