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Analysis

Ethereum fell, though not quite as expected

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Ethereum

Regular readers will recall that I suggested yesterday morning (China time) that it was time to pull the stops in very tight on ETH.  Those following me on twitter received a pic of a rising wedge chart pattern before and after it broke, with the implicit suggestion that the market was showing signs of an impending breakdown. That breakdown came, but not until after the chart registered a double top which can only be described as nerve-wracking to the extreme.

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Still, I suppose I should have foreseen the possibility of a brain-bleeding double top, as that is what it took to get pricetime to touch the 3rd arc on this setup:

Looking closer at the breakdown, we again get a confusing picture, because there are two perfectly reasonable bear setups from the first top.  The smaller of the two shows that the fall went EXACTLY to the 5th arc.  Suggesting the worst of the selling is over:

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But I am bothered by the fact that there is an energy point on this chart several hours from now.  Intuitively, it feels like it will be a lower low?  So let’s look at the slightly larger bear setup from the first top:

This setup suggests a low ~ $68-$69, possibly this afternoon (remember, I am writing in China time, GMT +8).

Bitcoin

Bitcoin rallied yesterday, so I thought it was time to look at that chart.  The longer-term setup on the daily chart shows an energy point in 10 days time.  This is just after the end of the setup in time. The top of the square is resistance, at $1500.

Let’s look at a shorter-term setup for confirmation:

Here on this setup we again see resistance at $1500 in the form of a 5th arc, on the day of the energy point.  There is plenty of time however for XBT to rally past $1500 before then.  If that should happen, the top of the setup is likely to stop the advance at ~ $1700.

 

Remember:  The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgment.  Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.

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4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. Ershad

    May 4, 2017 at 1:21 am

    Hi Jim,

    Just a quick question, do you think that XRP would reach all time highs according to XRP/BTC? Or would you recommend selling at $0.07 USDT?

    Kind regards,
    Ershad

    • Jim Fredrickson

      May 4, 2017 at 9:05 am

      I am buying xrp today… relative to xbt is hard to say, but relative to usd seems a likely winner

      • Ershad

        May 4, 2017 at 9:50 am

        Hi Jim,

        Thanks for your reply, I wanted to ask would you recommend selling XRP at $.07 or holding for a little longer?

        Kind regards
        Ershad

        • Jim Fredrickson

          May 4, 2017 at 12:32 pm

          I can’t answer that question because i don’t know your situation. I am buying it today, so as you can guess I think .07 is cheap. My guess is that 2 weeks from now it will be at least double that.

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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bitcoin Flirts with $8000 as Altcoin Bull Persists

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Bitcoin’s swift recovery was the main topic of the week, as the most valuable coin not just regained its steep losses, but hit a marginal new high towards the end of the period. The entire segment is experiencing capital inflows as the total value of the coins climbed above $230 billion for the first time ever after finally leaving the vicinity of the $200 billion mark.

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BTC breached the $8000 level before turning slightly lower on Friday, but despite the severely overbought daily chart, it is still trading near its all-time highs. As the long-term picture still suggests a deeper correction, investors should wait with opening new positions and traders should also control position sizes here. Key support levels are found at $7700, $7000, and $6700, while the recent key break-out level at $5000 still hasn’t been re-tested.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

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Dash is still the most bullish altcoin from a technical standpoint, despite this week’s short-term correction, as the coin is trading above its prior all-time high, and this weekend, it looks ready to test the break-out high near $500. Support levels are still found at $400, $360, and $330, and as the long-term picture is approaching overbought territory, investors should only hold on to their positions here.

DASH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

The other major altcoins are also mostly in bullish setups, with some of them already in the latter stages of this cycle, like Monero and IOTA, but elsewhere in the segment, there are still opportunities for both traders and investors. Let’s see the detailed long-term view.

(more…)

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Litecoin and NEO Jump as Bitcoin Trades near $8000

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The cryptocurrency segment continued its bullish run, as the total value of the coins climbed above $230 billion for the first time ever, while Bitcoin also posted marginal new highs. The most valuable currency is still overbought regarding the long-term picture, and we continue to expect a deeper correction in the coming period, despite the recent strong rally. Support levels are still found $7700, $7000, and $6700 while the $8000 level is ahead as a major obstacle.

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BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin has been the most active major besides Bitcoin, as it rallied strongly after breaking out above the key $64 resistance and it breached the next target at $75 before heading below $70 again. The coin remains in bullish long- and short-term patterns, and we expect a move above the major resistance zone ahead with the next target found at $82.50.

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Litecoin/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO is showing strength in the second half of the session, while Monero is recovering well from a short-term dip, similarly to IOTA and Ethereum Classic. Ethereum continues to represent stability in the segment, while Ripple failed to build up momentum so far after yesterdays spike higher. With still most of the altcoins being in bullish setups, let’s see the short-term charts.

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Analysis

XRP Looking to Make a Significant Rally

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The XRP/USD pair went into a deep correction after hitting 0.29490 a month ago. It nosedived to the major support level of 0.19052. The pair consolidated for a few weeks which gave the market the legs to test resistance at 0.22924.

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Technical indicators show that the pair was ready to breach its immediate resistance, which it did this morning. Now that resistance has broke at 0.22924, it’s time to buy. This successful breakout will take the pair to 0.23997 first and 0.26563 next before hitting the target of 0.26796 which is coincidentally a major resistance level.

Technical indicators hint that the market would most likely be overbought by the time it hits 0.26796. Should it respect the major resistance level, the likelihood of the market turning extremely bearish increases. Therefore, it is recommended to closely watch your trail stops to preserve your gains.  

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Summary of Strategy

Buy: As close to 0.22924

Support: 0.22224 and 0.20081

Target: 0.26796

Stop: If the market breaches 0.20081 as next reliable support is 0.19052

 

Disclaimer: The writer owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



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