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Daily Analysis: Stocks Keep Up Momentum as Oil Falls Below $50

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Wednesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2534 0.09%
DAX 12970 0.53%
WTI Crude Oil 49.88 -1.07%
GOLD 1277.00 -0.06%
Bitcoin 4210 -2.02%
EUR/USD 1.1763 0.16%

Global stock markets are once again at all-time highs today, despite the growing tensions in Spain concerning the independence of Catalonia. Spanish equities fell to a 7-month low amid the woes, but German stocks are testing their record highs and that kept European indices fairly stable, while the other major global indices are at or very near their highs as well. Meanwhile, volatility is approaching record highs in the US despite the famously negative October seasonality, and although the NASDAQ 100 is still struggling to break-out above 6000 the broader tech index is also trading at record levels.

S&P 500, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Currencies are very calm today, as the Dollar is holding on to most of its gains against its major peers despite the slight intraday dip, while the rest of the majors are virtually unchanged. The Dollar might be in for a rocky ride in the coming weeks as speculation is heating up regarding the next Fed chair. While it is possible that Janet Yellen will have another term, prediction markets now favor Kevin Warsh, who is expected to be more hawkish than Mrs. Yellen.

Commodities have been more active than currencies today, with oil being slammed lower yet again, and the WTI crude contract is now back below $50 per barrel level. Gold is hovering around $1275, and although a reversal is more and more likely, the precious metal is not out of the short-term downtrend yet.

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocoins are having another mixed session, as the shallow correction remains intact tin the segment. With correlations still being low and other technicals being in favor of more upside as well, we expect a bullish turn in the coming days. Ripple and Dash are outperforming the broader market today, as the former is still looking one of the strongest of the most valuable coins. Bitcoin experienced selling pressure throughout the session, but the coin managed to stay above primary resistance near $4150, as a sign of long-term strength. The other majors are close to unchanged, with NEO and IOTA being among the weaker coins, while Bitcoin Cash continues to trade in a downward spiral.

Ripple/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Technical Picture

The DAX completed the recovery that we have been tracking since the bear trap at the end of the correction, and the coin is testing the 13,000 level now. While the MACD already warns of a correction, bulls could wait with exiting all of their positions, as at least a marginal high above the historic level is likely. That said, we would wait with opening new positions until a consolidation, especially given the long-term valuation worries regarding equities.

DAX, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Wednesday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
10:30 UK Services PMI 53.6 53.3 53.2
14:15 US ADP Employment Change 135,000 151,000 237,000
16:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 59.8 55.5 55.3
16:30 US Crude Oil Invesntories -6.0 mill -0.5 mill -1.8 mill
19:15 EUROZONE Mario Darghi Speaks
19:15 US Janet Yellen Speaks

Key Economic Releases on Thursday

Time, CET Country Release Expected Previous
2:30 AUSTRALIA Retail Sales 0.3% 0.0%
2:30 AUSTRALIA Trade Balance 0.87 bill 0.46 bill
13:30 EUROZONE ECB Meeting Accounts
14:30 CANADA Trade Balance -3.0 bill
14:30 US Unemployment Claims 270,000 272,000
14:30 US Trade Balance -43.0 bill -43.7 bill
16:00 US Factory Orders 0.9% -3.3%

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 441 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

Tron Price Analysis: TRX/USD Looks Set to Give Up $0.02000 Territory Again

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  • TRX/USD under heavy selling pressure late on Tuesday, dropping over 7%.
  • Bears are gunning for another retest of vital support, seen above a breached pennant patterns structure.

TRX/USD has been under heavy selling pressure on Tuesday, nursing chunky losses at the time of writing of 7%. Bears remain well in the driver’s seat in the latter stages of the day, with momentum picking up pace to the downside. The bulls lost much wind behind their sails on 10th January, this coming after enjoying a strong period in a run to the north. TRX/USD from 4th January – 10th January had gained a massive 75%, breaking out of a bullish pennant pattern structure. It also managed to briefly extend above a known area of supply, which exacerbated the upside pressure.

TRX/USD daily chart.

The above-described move saw the price print its highest level seen since 31st July 2018. Shortly after this high print, a big wave of selling kicked in. As a result, a very bearish daily candlestick was produced on 10th January. Daily sessions since this have closed in the red, apart from 14th January. TRX/USD managed to receive strong support on top of the breached pennant, providing some brief relief after the reversal was well underway. Despite the current trend south, news flow around the Tron foundation continues to be plentiful and upbeat.

OKCoin Supports TRX

As reported by the CCN team, OKCoin announced it has listed TRX on its trading platform. This coming via the exchange’s Medium blog today. OKCoin detailed that “starting today, authorized OKCoin customers can deposit TRX, and starting on January 17th they’ll be able to trade TRX against USD, BTC, and ETH.” Of note, the OKCoin platform was founded by the same people behind OKEx; however, OKCoin primarily focuses on traditional swaps and allows for bank deposits. In addition, OKCoin accommodates U.S clients, whereas OKEx do not.

Justin Sun Welcomes New Partner ABCC Exchange

ABCC Exchange, a cryptocurrency exchange platform, announced it is partnering with the Tron Foundation. The company tweeted, “ABCC is the 1st exchange that will list TRX 10 tokens. We are one of the top exchanges with great security and user interface. Stay tuned!” On the back of this, Tron founder Justin Sun replied, “ABCC is truly an awesome platform that has witnessed great development. We are glad to partner with ABCC as it’s the first exchange listing TRX10 tokens”.

Technical Review – TRX/USD

Given the current downside momentum, eyes are on another retest the breached pennant pattern structure. Where the two trend lines cross, support will be sought here, which could see the $0.02000 territory come under threat. Should the bears manage to force a breach, then a prior action demand zone will be called into play, within the $0.01700 price region.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 106 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

Futures Update: Deeper Correction Looms for S&P 500

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The S&P 500 FUTURES (SP) has been in a multi-year uptrend ever since it recorded lows of 665.70 in March 2009 closer to the end of the financial meltdown. If you are one of those who rode this trend early on, you would have substantially grown your capital over time. Even with the recent correction, you likely believe that the market will resume its uptrend very soon just like it did before.

Nevertheless, this is not the time to be complacent. The recent SP bounce is looking like the dead-cat type. This gives us reasons to believe that there might be more pain ahead for investors. In this article, we show how there’s a deeper correction looming for the S&P 500 index and, by extension, its futures.

Bearish Short-Term

S&P 500 futures may have rejected lower prices when it bounced off lows of 2,371 on December 26, 2018. However, there’s very little about this bounce telling us that the market remains bullish. In fact, several technical indicators suggest that this is a relief rally rather than a true recovery.

Daily chart of SP

First, we can see the SP creating a V-shaped pattern. While a market can reverse using this pattern, it rarely happens. When it does, there’s always time given for accumulation at the bottom. This is something that we do not see in the market’s V-shaped structure. Without some form of accumulation to keep the move up sustainable, the market is at risk of giving up all of its gains.

Gold (XAU/USD) as sample of V-shaped reversal

Speaking of a solid base, the rally somehow materialized even with declining volume. This usually happens in an oversold market where sellers take a step back and allow the market to recover so they can short the bounce. We can see this possibility playing out in the S&P 500 futures as the market approaches resistance of 2,619.60.

With weak volume and fading bullish momentum, we expect the S&P 500 futures to resume their slide in the next few days.

Weak Long-term Technical Setups

The technical setups in the longer time frame affirm our assumption that more pain is ahead for this futures market. First and most importantly, there seems to be a divergence between volume and price. In a healthy bullish market, price goes up as volume increases. This makes sense as a growing demand in the form of increasing volume lifts prices.

On the other hand, a rising market with weakening volume is a red flag for most investors. It hints that the market is unhealthy and may be manipulated by an unknown entity. We’re seeing  this divergence in the S&P 500 futures.

Volume divergence on the monthly chart

On top of that, the 100 MA on the weekly chart is acting as a firm resistance. It is crawling closely to our immediate resistance of 2,619.60. In addition, the weekly RSI appears to face heavy resistance at 50. All these indicators suggest that bears are primed to take over the market.

Weekly chart of SP

Projected Move

With all these bearish signals in front of us, bulls must now do everything they can to take back resistance of 2,619.60 in order to dissipate the growing bearish sentiment. Failure to do so would mean that the market has flipped 2,619.60 support into a firm resistance (S/R flip). This would send a strong message that bears are flexing their muscles.

Should this happen, we expect SP to revisit lows of 2,317 where a technical bounce is likely to happen. However, this bounce will likely be weak and would not have the steam to go above 2,469. That S/R flip should be the final nail in SP’s coffin.

Projected SP price action

A break below 2,317 would ignite panic selling in the market. The next support below that level is 1,920. Interestingly, the 100 MA on the monthly chart is also crawling around that price area. This is the target for those who want to short the market once SP takes out support of 2,317.

Bottom Line

The S&P 500 futures may have recently bounced. However, all signs point to an even deeper correction. With bearish short-term and long-term setups, the market may be headed for more pain.

 

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.8 stars on average, based on 308 rated postsKiril is a CFA Charterholder and financial professional with 5+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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Crypto Update: Coins Retreat After Rally Attempt

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While yesterday the major cryptocurrencies recovered their weekend losses and bounced back above their prior lows, the bounce got halted before changing the short-term technical setup. As the world is focused on today’s key Brexit vote, trading volumes are once again very low, but the lack of bullish follow-through is a warning sign for traders here even considering the low level of trading activity.

We haven’t seen signs of a developing leadership in recent days, with correlations remaining high and with the top coins failing at the first major levels of resistance for now. That said, should the coins hold above yesterday’s lows and push above consolidation range, the formation of a bear-trap pattern is still possible even as odds still favor the continuation of the bear market.

In light of the short- and long-term setups, traders and investors should still stay away from entering new positions, with our trend model still being on sell signals on both time frames for the majority of the top coins.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While the breakdown in Bitcoin got bought yesterday, the bounce failed to reach the $3850 level and the most valuable coin is still hovering near the $3600 level, leaving both the neutral short-term, and of course, the long-term sell signal intact in our trend model.

A move above $3850 would be a positive sign for bulls, but odds still favor a negative outcome and a likely test of the $3000 level in the coming weeks, so even short-term traders should still away from entering new positions here. Further, weaker support is found near $3250, with resistance ahead between $4000 and $4050, and near $4450.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Although Ethereum briefly topped the $130 level after plunging below the $120 support, a failed breakdown pattern hasn’t been confirmed in the previously leading coin, and the short-term sell signal remains in place in our trend model.

With the bearish long-term picture in mind, and with the oversold short-term momentum readings now cleared, the outlook for the coin remains negative, even as the resumption the counter-trend rally is still a possibility here. Further support below $120 is found between $95 and $100, while resistance is ahead at $160 and near $180.

Altcoins Still Stuck in Downtrends Across the Board

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin’s rally stooped near the upper boundary of last week’s consolidation range, and although the coin is safely above the key $30-$30.50 support zone, the momentum of the bounce is waning. The bearish long-term forces still seem to be dominant, and the coin is well below the primary resistance level near $34.50, so our trend model remains on sell signals on both time-frames. Further strong resistance ahead near $38 and $44 and with support is found near $26 and $23.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple experienced a brief period of relative stability after the weekend sell-off, but that didn’t change the bearish overall picture for the coin, and technicals are still hostile for bulls here. The coin continues to hover around the $0.32 price level, but we still expect a move below $0.30 in the coming weeks with a test of the bear market lows being the most likely scenario.

Another strong support level is found near the $0.26 level, with resistance ahead near $0.3550, $0.3750, and in the key long-term zone between $0.42 and $0.46.

XMR/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero is also among the weaker majors and although it bounced back together with the broader market, it failed to sustainably recapture the $45 level, and it remains in clear short- and long-term downtrend. Our trend model is o sell signals on both time-frames as well, and the re-test of the bear market low just below $38 seems very likely in the coming weeks.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 441 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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