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Daily Analysis: Ripple Explodes Again as EUR/USD Surges Past 1.10

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Tuesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2401 0.10%
DAX 12825 0.15%
WTI Crude Oil 48.95 0.18%
GOLD 1234.00 0.30%
Bitcoin 1744 -0.82%
EUR/USD 1.1070 0.85%

 

The major stock markets continue to trade in a narrow range near their all-time highs after the slight overnight weakness. The performance of the global benchmarks evened out following last week’s strong divergence although the NASDAQ is still the clear leader. The Chinese market is still in a correction, and that helps the US and European indices so far this week. It should come as no surprise that the Chinese authorities revealed that they injected a whopping $25 billion of liquidity to restore confidence in the troubled banking system. Economic numbers once again disappointed in the US and that weighs heavily on the USD, together with the renewed fears regarding Trump’s Russian connections. Building Permits Housing Starts both showed the cooling of the housing market, while Industrial Production was slightly above the consensus estimate.

Shanghai Composite, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Euro is the biggest winner of the Dollar slump among the major currencies, while the Pound is relatively weak despite some favorable British economic reports earlier today. Meanwhile, the Chinese market remained stable, despite the weak industrial production data, helping the rally in commodities and related assets. The Yen, the Swiss Franc and gold are also surprisingly strong against the Dollar, while commodity-currencies are boosted by the continued strength in crude oil and the Chinese rebound.

Cryptocurrencies

Ripple continues to dominate the cryptocurrency market this week, as it completed the break-out above the $0.25 level and is currently trading near $0.33 after a rise of more than 35%. XRP reached a market capitalization of $12 billion, pushing Bitcoin’s market share below 50%. BTC rebounded off the $1600 support once again, as the choppy correction continued in the currency. The other majors remained weak, expect the rising star Stellar Lumen, with Litecoin falling the most once again, correcting back below the $25 level. NEM fully decoupled from Ripple, being down by another 5% today, while Ethereum, Ethereum Classic, Dash, and Monero are all drifting lower as well.

Ripple, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Technical Picture

The NASDAQ continues to hit all-time highs on a daily basis, led by the big six, Amazon, Apple, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, and Netflix.  The benchmark established an advancing trend channel, although the broader indices are still suspiciously lagging the tech segment despite the more balanced performances this week. The European exchanges also gave up their relative strength, but they are still hovering just below their recent highs, as volatility remains very low, and trading volumes are also muted.

NASDAQ 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Tuesday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
3:30 AUSTRALIA Monetary Meeting Minutes
10:30 UK CPI Index 2.7% 2.6% 2.3%
11:00 EUROZONE Flash GDP 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
11:00 GERMANY ZEW Economic Sentiment 20.6 22.3 19.5
14:30 US Building Permits 1.23 mill 1.27 mill 1.27 mill
14:30 US Housing Starts 1.17 mill 1.26 mill 1.22 mill
15:15 US Industrial Production 1.00% 0.4% 0.5%

 

Key Economic Releases on Wednesday

Time, CET Country Release Expected Previous
10:30 UK Average Earnings 2.4% 2.3%
10:30 UK Unemployment Rate 4.7% 4.7%
11:00 EUROZONE Final CPI 1.90% 1.90%
14:30 CANADA Manufacturing Sales 0.40% -0.20%
16:30 US Crude Oil Inventories 55.0
Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 320 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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2 Comments

  1. SuccessHappinessFreedom@gmail.com

    May 17, 2017 at 12:01 am

    Litecoin is at $24USD? should I buy more or sell out?

    • Mate Cser

      May 17, 2017 at 12:51 am

      Hi, regarding cryptocoins, I suggest following Jim Fredrickson’s posts and advice. In my opinion, LTC is still in an uptrend, possibly close to the end of the current correction, I would be looking for buy signals rather than sell signals here. As always, keep your position sizes manageable, especially in such volatile trends. Great trading!

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Analysis

Pre-Market: Turkey Back in the Crosshairs Amid Sanction Threats

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The “red-bar-green-bar-madness” continues in global stock markets, as after yesterday’s rally, today the major markets are all in the red once again. Emerging market woes are still feeding the bearish narrative, with the Turkish Lira being back in the center of attention. The currency which enjoyed a three-day relief rally slid lower following threats regarding further retaliatory US sanctions, should turkey keep Pastor Brunson in custody.

USD/TRY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The diplomatic troubles only add to the problems of the country, while also helping the rhetoric of the Turkish leadership that focuses on a western “attack” on the nation. With the vague budget plans in mind, the endgame for the Lira still seems ugly, even as at the current levels, strong Turkish companies can offer great bargains for a long-term investment portfolio.

DAX Index, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The divergence between the US and the rest of the world seems to be getting wider by the day, as the Shanghai Composite closed on a fresh bear market low, while most of Asia is also stuck in short-term downtrends, while Europe is looking wounded too from a technical perspective. The main US indices, on the other hand, are still near their all-time highs, and today’s selloff is also just a small blip in the ongoing uptrend.

S&P 500, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

On a slightly negative note, the Nasdaq has been underperforming the broader market ever since Tencent’s earnings miss on Wednesday, and today, it’s also the worst performing benchmark on Wall Street in the wake of Nvidia’s (NVDA) lackluster guidance that came out yesterday after the closing bell.

Today’ session could still go either way in the US, as the overnight losses are moderate, and yesterday’s trade war optimism could still fuel a recovery in the worlds strongest stock market, even amid the deepening emerging market crisis.

Forex Markets Stable As Dollar Consolidates

Dollar Index (DXY), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Dollar is consolidating just below its recent 13-month highs, with the EUR/USD pair rebounding to 1.14, and the broader Dollar index settling down near 96.5. The reserve currency is still clearly in a rising trend, and as the short-term overbought momentum readings are almost cleared, the rally could soon continue, especially if risk-off sentiment remains dominant outside of the US.

Copper Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities are virtually unchanged before the US open, with gold still hovering just above its 17-month low near the $1185 level, crude oil being stuck near $65 per barrel regarding the WTI contract, while copper trying to hold its ground after the recent key breakdown.

Dr. Copper is still signaling troubles ahead for China and the global economy, as although the commodity outperformed today, it’s clearly below the break-down level near $2.7, and the downtrend will likely continue in the coming weeks.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Crypto Update: Ripple Leads Oversold Bounce

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The major cryptocurrencies are holding on to their recent short-term gains, as the oversold bounce that followed the early-week liquidation continues. One of the most oversold top coins, Ripple is leading the way higher as it broke out above the $0.30 resistance and rallied to $0.32 in early trading. The total value of the market reached $215 billion, but as Bitcoin and Ethereum are still capped by the $6500 and $300 levels respectively a broad short-term trend change is not confirmed in the segment.

Monero is also among the relatively stronger coins today, extending its bounce above the $90 level, and getting close to the key $100 zone in the process. Litecoin, which has been also showing early signs of strength, failed to build on the rally, and as the leadership is still weak, correlations are high, and the downtrends are intact with regards to most of the coins, traders should remain defensive until further signs of strength in the segment emerge.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple is trading in the strong $0.30-$0.32 zone, after the overnight rally, being the only major that triggered a short-term buy signal. Despite the signal, the long-term bearish setup is still clearly in place, and the coin continues to face strong resistance at $0.32, with a weaker level also ahead near $0.35, and traders should only treat the current move as a counter-trend rally. Support below $0.30 is found near $0.28, with a stronger long-term level at $0.26, and the coin already cleared the oversold short-term momentum readings.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

We are still looking at Ethereum as the most important gauge of the state of the market, as ETH has been in the epicenter of the recent steep selloff, and now it is trying to gain ground above the key $300 level.

Despite the relative stability of the coin, it failed to follow Ripple higher, and also failed to trigger a short-term buy signal, as the declining trend clearly remained intact, even as the steepest trendline has been broken. The coin faces strong resistance just above the current price level and near $335, while support is found between $275 and $280 and near $260.

Bitcoin Still Stuck Below Resistance

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

BTC has been trading in a narrow range below the $6500 level as altcoins attempted to rally, but the relatively strong coin still failed to show bullish meaningful momentum. The coin remains on a neutral short-term trend signal, and with the key long-term $5850 level not being in danger, the long-term outlook is also neutral.

A move above $6500 could still trigger a short-term buy signal, but the rest of the segment will likely need further consolidation for a trend change, and further strong resistance is ahead at $6750 and $7000, while support is found at $6275 and $6000.

EOS/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While a few coins are showing promising short-term signs, most of the majors remain deeply wounded from a technical perspective, with the likes of NEO, IOTA, DASH, and EOS all managing only a weak bounce, despite the clearly oversold momentum readings. With that in mind, the odds of a re-test of the lows are still high, and volatility might increase again in the coming days.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Pre-Market: Trade War Optimism Sparks Another Bounce in Stocks

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Global stocks are markedly higher today before the US open, Donald Trump’s quite aggressive negotiating seem to be paying off, at least with regards to China, as in the wake of the pronounced weakness in Chinese assets, and the notable slowdown in the economy, the country wants to reopen the talks with the US.

Shanghai Composite, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Shanghai Composite hit a new bear market low overnight before recovering above support into the close, and the Dollar’s rally also ran into resistance, thanks to the Yuan’s bounce of its fresh 13-month low. Emerging market assets are also somewhat higher today, with the help of the Turkish Lira’s continued bounce, but the segment is still deeply wounded technically, and more pain is almost inevitably ahead, as the negative trends still stand.

 

DAX Index, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Walmart’s great earnings report also fueled the pre-market rally in US futures, as the retail segment in the largest economy still seems to be doing just fine, despite the global woes. The major US indices are after an orderly looking correction, in stark contrast with their European and Asian peers, which are stuck in broader downtrends or even full-blown bear markets.

Nasdaq, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Yesterday’s tech selloff, which was triggered by the weak report of Chinese giant Tencent has almost been erased after the better than expected numbers of Cisco restored confidence in the market-leading segment. Nvidia (NVDA) will also report after the market close, and as the earnings season is drawing to a close, we can conclude that corporate profits had a blowout quarter in the US, even as cracks in the global economy appeared.

Momentum is still clearly on the side of the FAANGS and the whole US tech sector even after discounting Facebook’s recent plunge, but should the tightening cycle of the Fed continue to drain liquidity from financial markets and should the rising trend in rates persist, we expect valuations to suddenly matter soon.

Dollar Pulls Back

Dollar Index (DXY), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The possible resumption of the US-Chinese trade talks sparked a, so far, weak correction, which also due from a technical standpoint, with the EUR/USD pair finding support near $1.13, and with the broader Dollar Index running into resistance near the 97 level. The rally in the reserve currency is no danger by any means, as the break-out is clearly intact, but a deeper pullback would help risk-assets in the coming days.

WTI Crude oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities are slightly higher thanks to the relief rally in emerging markets and the dip in the Dollar, but the previously stronger crude oil is just holding up above the $65 support, while gold is clearly below $1200, and copper couldn’t get back anywhere near yesterday’s break-down level close to $2.70.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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