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Daily Analysis: Euro Slumps on ECB Tapering, Amazon Jumps after Earnings

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Thursday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2561 0.13%
DAX 13,133 1.39%
WTI Crude Oil 52.76 1.12%
GOLD 1269.00 -0.76%
Bitcoin 5856 3.78%
EUR/USD 1.1742 -0.20%

On the busiest trading day in a while, European stocks got a huge boost from the cautious tapering plans of Mario Draghi and the ECB that sent the Euro tumbling and hitting an almost 5-month low against the Dollar. European equities tackled their all-time highs after the announcement, but the stretched rally is still in danger and a bull trap is likely to form, just as a bear trap formed at the end of the last intermediate bottom, that said if the Euro remains under pressure, it could mitigate the next major leg lower in European stocks.

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EUR/USD After the ECB-Decision, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

In the US, the aftermarket action was the most interesting as both Amazon and Google’s parent Alphabet came out with their quarterly numbers. Both behemoths beat the consensus estimates, and especially Amazon’s shares got bid higher in after-hours trading, surging back above the $1000 level. The tech index is still the weakest major benchmark regarding the short-term picture, despite the negative releases, and the broad market still seems wildly overbought.

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Amazon (AMZN), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Currencies had another active day, not just because of the Euro’s sharp drop, as the Canadian Dollar and the New Zealand Dollar also lost significant ground yet again, while the Pound and the Swiss Franc was dragged lower by their European big brother too. Safe-haven assets also got under pressure following the dovish central bank decision, although in the long run, it should be a bullish sign for both the Yen and Gold.

USD/CAD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin’s volatile session made headlines in the cryptocurrency segment, as the dominant coin overcame yet another hard fork unscathed, and recovered up to the $6000 level after the recent short-term correction. The long-term picture remains dangerously overbought for the currency, but another short-term leg higher is still possible, despite the widespread bubble worries and high correction risk.

Altcoins were virtually unchanged amid the BTC rally, as Wednesday’s decline lost steam and the most traded coins settled down. IOTA was the most active yet again, as it continued lower after the huge rally earlier on this week. Litecoin and Ethereum showed some relative strength but the moves were minuscule compared to the recent swings. With most of the majors still consolidating the post China-crash gains, more choppy trading is expected, especially given the rising volatility in BTC.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

 

Key Economic Releases on Thursday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
13:45 EUROZONE ECB Rate Decisiion 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
14:30 EUROZONE ECB Press Conference
14:30 US Unemployment Claims 233,000 236,000 222,000
16:00 US Pending Home Sales 0.0% 0.7% -2.6%

Key Economic Releases on Friday

Time, CET Country Release Expected Previous
14:30 US Advance GDP 2.7% 3.1%

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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: All Majors Stretched as Ripple Finally Breaks-Out

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Although the previous leaders of the rally started to correct or at least consolidate in the wake of the overbought long-term setups, another batch of coins turned exponential, with Litecoin, Ripple, and Ethereum all registering lofty gains this week. Bitcoin, Monero, and Dash have been holding up well, and even drifted to new marginal highs during the period, while Ethereum Classic had a more volatile week, before moving to new highs today.

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XRP left the broad trading range that has dominated its market since May, and surged to new all-time highs while almost quadrupling in the process. As the coin was the only major on a long-term buy signal according to our trend model, and the move triggered a sell signal on Thursday, now all of our tracked coins are on sell signals.

Ripple could be in for further short-term gains but long-term investors should reduce their positions after this week’s spike. Support levels are found Major at the prior high near $0.4250 and in the $0.30-$0.32 range.

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XRP/USDT, Daily Chart Analysis

IOTA, which has been leading the market higher before is down by more than 30% off its all-time high, but given the exponential move before, an even deeper correction is likely in the coming weeks, and investors should wait until a more favorable setup to add to their positions. Strong support is only found at $3 and $1.5, but potential Fibonacci support is at $2.35.

IOT/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Let’s see how the long-term charts of the other majors look this weekend.

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Up Again as Altcoins Mixed in Volatile Trading

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Bitcoin is at a new all-time high today, although the momentum of today’s move is far below from what we saw recently, and the coin only managed to reach a marginal record high yet again. BTC is now worth $300 billion, and it is still trading right at the short-term trendline, inside a rising wedge pattern that shows a clear momentum divergence.

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With the short-term trend still being intact further gains are still possible, but as all the majors are overbought from a long-term perspective, we still advise investors to wait for a better buying opportunity before adding to their holdings. Primary support is still found near $13,000, with further levels at $11,300, $10,000, $9000, and stronger levels at $8200 and $7700.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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 XRP entered a volatile short-term correction after its two-day surge after giving a short-term sell signal yesterday, and the coin spiked back towards $0.60 before settling down just below yesterday’s highs. The long-term setup also turned overbought thanks to the almost 300% rally, and now investors should reduce their holdings, even as further gains are still possible. Major support is still found at the prior high near $0.4250 and in the $0.30-$0.32 range.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Analysis

Cryptocurrency Analysis: Ripple Continues Rampage as Litecoin and Ethereum Enter Correction

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Ripple remained in the center of attention in the segment after breaking out to a new all-time high yesterday, and the coin almost doubled in value, climbing above the $0.80 level. The currency concluded a 6-month long consolidation pattern with the move after being the only major on a long-term buy signal in our trend model.

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XRP gave a short-term sell signal today, while turning neutral regarding the long-term setup. Investors now shouldn’t add to their positions, although further gains are still possible, and reducing holdings somewhat is a good idea here. Major support is still found at the prior high near $0.4250 and in the $0.30-$0.32 range.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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While Bitcoin stagnated, and Bitcoin Cash jumped, Ethereum, Litecoin, Dash, and IOTA has been drifting slightly lower, although the recent gains are still mostly intact, and the basic setup in the segment is unchanged.

Litecoin fell below the $300 level after yesterday’s consolidation, and the coin faced strong selling pressure in the latter half of the session. The currency remains extremely stretched regarding the long-term momentum indicators, and although the short-term uptrend is still intact, a deeper correction is likely in the coming weeks, with key support levels found at $125 and $100, and weaker levels at $260 and $170.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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