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Crazy Cryptos on Another Rip

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It looks like the Japanese have finally upped their volumes. According to coinhills.com, bitflyer – the company who will be responsible for bringing bitcoin to 260,000 stores in Japan – is now trading over 100,000 bitcoins a day and responsible for 10% of the total volume in the market.

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The cryptocurrency market has seen another massive surge last night, adding $4 Billion in value over the past 24 hours.

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Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are again trading at all time highs. Many traders in eToro now have their sights set firmly on BTC2K!!

-Mati

 

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of May 19th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you’re prepared to lose.

Market Overview

The safe haven sentiment in the markets is now apparent. Investors across the globe are now taking a good hard look at their respective portfolios as fear of political turmoil sets in.

The fireworks started yesterday morning in Brazil, the country can’t seem to shake mounting political scandals and yesterday it hit the markets in a big way.

Shares in the Ibovespa index dropped 10% at the market opening…

…and the Brazilian Real plunged 8.5% against the US Dollar.

Focus Today will be on the Middle East.

It’s election day in Iran. The incumbent Rouhani has only a slight edge over his rival. As Iranians go to the polls today the issue on the table is about East or West.

Rouhani wants to cozy up to Europe and America. His opponent is more of an Islamic idealist. As a former judge, he’s personally passed hundreds of death sentences and would likely not be a good friend of the Western World.

If the election is too close to call, they may be heading for a runoff between the two frontrunners.

Meanwhile, in the Middle East. Donald Trump is starting his tour of Saudi Arabia, Israel, Rome, and Belgium.

He will likely be the first President in US history to travel to the Middle East in order to avoid political turmoil.

The US markets managed to close in green yesterday after the Trump Dump on Wednesday. The big test will be what happens tonight before the weekend.

Will investors hold firm or get cold feet?… We’ll find out soon.

For the past two weeks, safe haven trading has been firmly in place.

We have gold going up…

along with the Japanese Yen…

and US treasury bonds rising sharply…

Have an awesome weekend!!

This content is for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or an investment recommendation.
Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you’re prepared to lose.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 69 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




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5 Comments

5 Comments

  1. Joshnj82

    May 19, 2017 at 2:37 pm

    You are doing yourself and this website a disservice with the unnecessary and opinionated political comments. People are losing trust in the media across the board because of this growing trend of political bias. Financial markets are greatly impacted by politics and global events and I’m not suggesting otherwise. However, there is a major difference with reporting political news (facts) and political opinions and your last 2 articles (or more) contain unsubstantiated statements which are unrelated to the article and completely unnecessary. You do a great job with reporting current news and events affecting the markets and economy and I apologize for airing my frustrations. I miss the days when people mostly kept their personal views to themselves and everyone wasn’t a political commentator.

  2. Mati Greenspan

    May 19, 2017 at 3:50 pm

    Hi Josh,

    Thanks for the compliment and for the high level of feedback. I’m thrilled that you read the article and that you took the time to comment.

    After considering this issue, I am of the opinion that it is not possible to separate my opinions from the way that I deliver the facts. To write and flow freely one must express their full unencumbered feelings on the topic at hand.

    This is one of the things that I admire about President Trump. He says what he thinks without regards to what others might say. Even if some of those things may be quite controversial. Often times the best thoughts and innovations are controversial.

    With your permission, I will continue to provide top notch market analysis, which will be delivered with a healthy dose of cynicism. Your welcome to read them, or not, and take what you like, or not.

    Have a pleasant weekend.

    -Mati

  3. Joshnj82

    May 19, 2017 at 6:30 pm

    Mati,
    Thank you for taking the time to respond to my comment. Some people might find your request for permission a bit condescending but the world is filled with people looking for reasons to manufacture outrage.

    I am not a paid analyst and am in no position to offer advice or give permission to anyone in your profession. You should continue to use all the tools you feel is needed to succeed. If you need to bash the President in order to produce top notch market analysis thsn please continue to do so. Like you said, subscribers always have a choice.

    Best wishes,

    -Josh

  4. ryepdx

    May 19, 2017 at 9:00 pm

    Bash the president? Noting that he’s going to the Middle East in the midst of political turmoil doesn’t strike me as bashing. Then again, I’m not a fan of Trump and never have been, so I’m not particularly sensitive to these things.

  5. Joshnj82

    May 19, 2017 at 10:05 pm

    I was referring to his previous article, “damage done” where he accused Pres of colluding w/ Russia and submitted “evidence” as proof. I just didn’t see the relevance of adding a video of a campaign speech under market analysis for yesterday. I should have been more specific.
    When I read an article about my fav sports team and the columnists decides to digress w/ non-related political opinion it’s annoying. Same goes for financial news and so on. Politics has seeped into everything and it’s getting tiresome. I’m just ranting some frustrations atm and spending way too much time doing so. I’m done…

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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bitcoin and Ethereum Break-Out of Declining Trends

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The altcoin-led rally continued since our previous look at the long-term charts, and the major coins all confirmed a new short-term uptrend. Most of the largest digital currencies also broke out from their broad declining trends, as the total value of the segment is now more than 50% above the level around the correction low.

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BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

The overall picture remained positive, with only Bitcoin’s weakness causing headaches for crypto bulls, as the most valuable coin is hovering close to declining trendline that dominated trading throughout the first quarter of the year.

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Despite the short-term weakness, BTC is still among the stronger majors from a long-term perspective, and with the secular uptrend clearly being intact, long-term investors should hold on to their coins and add to their holdings on the short-term pullbacks.

Crucial resistance is still just ahead between $9000-$9200, with further levels at $10,000 and $11,300, while support is found near $8400, $7650, and in the $6150-$6250 zone.

ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum built upon its recent relative strength, and the coin broke out convincingly above the declining trendline, and reached the next key resistance zone between $625 and $640 before the momentum of the move stalled.

While there are still several strong zones ahead, with the closest ones near $725 and $845, barring a quick move back below the declining trendline, the coin should continue the advance. With the long-term MACD still just in neutral territory, long-term investors could add to their holdings during short-term corrections, with key support levels at $500, $450, and $400.

(more…)

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 229 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Coins Hit 6-Week Highs as Rally Continues

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Bullish price action is still dominant in the cryptocurrency segment today, despite the recent lofty gains, and the overbought short-term picture in the ace of most of the majors. Correlations continue to break down, as more and more coins are in confirmed uptrends, with the total value of the market hitting $400 billion for the first time since early March.

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The top digital currencies are mixed today in the generally positive environment, with Bitcoin Cash, IOTA, Ethereum Classic, Dash, and Monero showing relative strength, in the face of the slightly overbought short-term momentum readings. While this is not the best moment to enter new short-term trades with regards to the majority of the coins, the long-term setup favors further gains in the coming weeks.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Altcoins have been leading the market higher in the last couple of weeks, and Bitcoin is still stuck below the $9000 level, as it continues to slightly lag behind from a short-term perspective. The coin ran into the strong resistance zone between $9000 and $9200 after breaking out of the broad declining trend.

Now a pullback is likely, given the slight weakness, with a possible test of the prior swing high at $8400. In case of a bullish move, the next target is at $10,000, and long-term investors should still add to their holdings on the short-term dips.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum kept on creeping higher to marginal no rally highs in the last couple of days, nearing the $650 level despite the overbought short-term picture. Short-term traders should still not enter new positions here until the overbought readings are cleared, while long-term investors could still add to their holdings during the pullbacks.  Resistance zones are ahead near $735 and $780, while primary support is between $555 and $575.

Altcoins Diverging but Bulls Remain in Control

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

As we noted, the correlation between the coins is lower than during the downswing, and that confirms the bullish price action in the segment. Ripple is trading in a consolidation pattern near the $0.84 level, and although the overbought momentum readings are not yet fully cleared, the trend is clearly bullish and a new short-term buy signal is likely in the coming days.

Among the other recent leaders, IOTA triggered short-term sell signal, reaching the strong resistance zone near $2.2. EOS, Stellar, Cardano, and NEO are consolidating their gains, while Dash, Monero, and ETC are trading slightly above last week’s highs, but traders shouldn’t chase them higher here, as a short-term correction is likely soon.

Stay tuned for our detailed long-term technical analysis coming out later on today.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 229 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Bitcoin and Gold are Trading Inversely With One Another

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Advocates of bitcoin often compare the digital currency to gold for its finite supply and store-of-value characteristics. While BTC hasn’t come close to dethroning gold as the world’s most trusted safe-haven, it has steadily outperformed bullion amid the latest recovery. This has some people asking whether virtual currencies are eating away into gold’s demand.

Inverse Relationship

Strategists have identified a strong inverse trading pattern between gold and bullion stretching all the way back to the fall, right around the time that cryptocurrencies rebounded from a China-induced selloff. As bitcoin and other cryptos surged, gold experienced a steep fall from a high above $1,351 in early September to a low of $1,241 just three months later.

As bitcoin cooled down in the new year, gold resumed its upward trajectory and eventually peaked near $1,370 at the end of January.

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Below are the charting patterns for gold and bitcoin going back one full year.

The latest divergence is easy to spot. Since hitting a settlement high of $1,360 on Apr. 11, bullion has declined 2%. Over the same period, bitcoin surged 27%.

Bitcoin’s oversized percentage move relative to gold is a reflection of underlying volatility in the cryptocurrency market. Crypto assets as a whole are but a tiny fraction of gold’s $7.8 trillion worth. That said, the digital asset class peaked above $830 billion earlier this year, making the case for a trillion-dollar market more believable.

Systemic Risks

Proponents of bitcoin’s safe-haven status generally agree that the cryptocurrency is well suited to outperform the market during periods of heightened economic and political instability. This is generally believed to be the period in which gold prices thrive. However, unlike gold, bitcoin has also outperformed during periods of relative calm.

The second-largest bull market in history started off as a positive for gold as prices crossed $1,900 a troy ounce in 2011. However, bullion hasn’t been able to hit anywhere near those levels ever since. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has been the world’s best-performing currency (if one calls it that) in six of the past eight years.

Although the charts seem to indicate an inverse relationship between gold and bitcoin, it’s much more difficult to prove that investors are swapping one asset for the other at any given time. There’s some anecdotal evidence to suggest this is the case but a lack of trading data makes it difficult to conclude definitively one way or the other.

Supply and demand factors must also be weighed in analyzing the price trajectory of both assets. Gold’s total supply is increasing by an average of less than 2% annually, according to the World Gold Council. At the other end of the spectrum, the final bitcoin is expected to be mined in 2140, with total supplies engineered to decline until that date.

On the demand side, gold has been losing its allure as investors continued to pile into stocks. In 2017, appetite for bullion fell by 7%, with gold-backed ETFs plunging to one-third of the previous year’s demand. On the other hand, bitcoin’s demand has skyrocketed as more traders noticed its meteoric rise.

One area in which bitcoin has an advantage over gold is non-correlation. As the above examples clearly demonstrate, BTC is not correlated with the broader market. Gold, on the other hand, is influenced by risk-off sentiment, geopolitics, interest rates and inflation, among others. At present, these factors may play into the hands of bullion as investors prepare for the new business cycle.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 344 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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