Coming Week: Stocks Mostly Bullish, Cryptocurrencies Going for New Records?

Asset Current Value Weekly Change
S&P 500 2355 -0.30%
DAX 12225 -0.71%
WTI Crude Oil 52.23 2.78%
GOLD 1257.50 0.81%
Bitcoin 1180 9.20%
EUR/USD 1.0599 -0.53%

 

 5 Things to Watch Next Week

  1. Will the Syrian situation escalate further?

Although wars are far from being 100% negative for stocks, the Syrian conflict has the potential of becoming a threat to global sentiment. Any involvement of Russia against US forces could turn into a very serious power struggle. Despite the fact that it would be beneficial for all sides to reach a stable state in the already destroyed country, it’s hard to see a quick resolution without international cooperation.

  1. Will Yellen stop the Dollar rally?

The US Dollar has been among the strongest major currencies this week despite the recent move towards monetary tightening by the ECB and the BOJ. The first major event of the week will be the speech of Fed chair Janet Yellen, and any hint of caution by the most powerful central banker could lead to a quick decline in the value of the Greenback.

The Dollar Index (DXY) is creeping towards its prior highs, Daily Chart

  1. What’s next for Bitcoin?

The most important cryptocurrency had a blowout week as it rallied relentlessly through several technical levels, despite the sometimes weakening momentum. The negative change in global sentiment in the second half of the week also helped the newest safe-haven asset. Although the technical setup is mixed, there is a clear chance of a powerful thrust towards the all-time high near $1300. The first days of the week could prove crucial for BTC traders.

  1. Will US stocks prove literally bulletproof?

Although stock markets saw some weakness after the Syrian attacks, they ended the week only with slight losses, even as the global leader, the DAX, experienced a correction. US stocks continue to hover just below their all-time highs, and it is possible that we will see a thrust to new highs once again, barring a serious political escalation between Russia and the US.

  1. A busy Friday despite the Easter- break.

With several European markets being closed on Friday (and on the next Monday) financial markets might be in a limbo towards the end of the week, but the most awaited US economic numbers will still come out on the last session before Easter. The retail sales and CPI reports are both closely watched by the Fed, and in the current market, the Fed is arguably the most influential player.

In Focus: Cryptocurrencies

 

1-month performance of the main cryptocurrencies, (% gains)

Litecoin is consolidating near the $10 level this weekend, and it jumped to the second place in the monthly performance chart of the major altcoins after its strong breakout, teaming up with Ethereum with a gain of 180%. Ethereum has been relatively quiet this week as it remains in a holding pattern below the $50 level. Bitcoin’s climb towards the $1200 level was impressive last week, but the dominant player of the market might face strong resistance before a charge towards its all-time high.

Dash and Monero have been glued together recently and they are both drifting higher since Friday, and a renewed rally is a distinct possibility for both currencies next week. Ripple is, not surprisingly, the leader of the monthly performance chart, even after the epic “pump-and-dump” breakout that ended in a swift and painful more than 50% correction. The overall picture is still positive for the cryptocurrency market as the majors are experiencing strong inflows, even if the volatile environment makes it that much harder to look at the big picture.

Currency Monthly Volume Market Cap
Bitcoin 11,156 19,096
Ethereum 4,783 3,976
Ripple 831 1,297
Dash 1,001 486
Litecoin 1,374 479
Monero 356 296

 

Key Economic Releases of the Week

Day Country Release Expected Previous
Monday US Janet Yellen Speech
Tuesday UK CPI Index 2.20% 2.30%
Tuesday GERMANY ZEW Economic Sentiment 13.2 12.8
Wednesday CHINA CPI (yearly) 1.1% 0.8%
Wednesday UK Average Earnings 2.1% 2.2%
Wednesday UK Unemployment Rate 4.70% 4,7%
Wednesday CANADA Base Interest Rate 0.50% 0.50%
Wednesday US Crude Oil Inventories 1.6 million
Thursday AUSTRALIA Employment Change 20,300 -6,400
Thursday AUSTRALIA Unemployment Rate 5.90% 5.90%
Thursday CHINA Trade Balance 76 billion -60 billion
Thursday CANADA Manufacturing Sales -0.40% 0.6%
Thursday US PPI (monthly) 0.00% 0.3%
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims (weekly) 242,000 234,000
Thursday US UOM Consumer Sentiment 97.1 96.9
Friday US Core CPI 0.00% 0.20%
Friday US Core Retail Sales 0.20% 0.20%
Friday US Retail Sales 0.10% 0.10%

 

Author:
Trader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.